Jul 17, 2008
Still trying to get caught up on a bunch of stuff back from my vacation, and I’m working on a large article on this year’s top backup players, but I do have a main topic to deal with today: Kevin Jones and the Bear RB situation.
First up, we added a few more site upgrades. The SOS tool now takes into consideration home/away stats. It’s kind of hard to explain, but this is all you need to know: all the data used, if you decide to use Home/Away Splits (you can choose to view overall numbers or for both home and away) you use only the data for each team’s home and away performances, so it’s even more accurate and can be even more revealing.
We also implemented all the yardage allowed stuff for defensive teams; all we have to do now is actually calculate our projections for each defense and project the number of games each DT will give up 0-199, 200-299, 300-349, 350-399, 400-449, and 450+ points this season and we’ll be ready to go. During the season, we’ll just project the number of yards each defense will give up, and that’ll work for whatever scoring criteria you add.
We’ve also tweaked the IDP depth charts so they will better illustrate 3-4 and 4-3 defenses and actual positions for these IDPs.
Now on to football. Obviously, the addition of Kevin Jones hurts Matt Forte’s chances and values this year. It’s not a huge blow, but it doesn’t help. I think Forte can be a good blocker, but he’s struggled in pass pro at times, which is a concern. That leads me to believe Adrian Peterson will be used often as the 3rd down back, or even Jones, who is a pretty good receiver. Forte’s margin of error on what should be a weak Bear offense isn’t much, so he’ll be tumbling a bit in our rankings, and keep in mind we saw this coming and already moved him below Kevin Smith and Jonathan Stewart in terms of the rookie rankings.
Of course, we should all still assume that Forte will be the main guy this year. Peterson will likely open up camp as the “starter,” but it shouldn’t take too long for Forte to move into the #1 role. But we’ll have to keep an eye on Jones’ progress. We can’t assume Jones will be ready to rock and roll to open the season, but his recovery has gone well, so we can’t assume he’s just an insurance policy for Forte; he might contribute early. My best guess is that Forte opens the season as the starter or the lead back, Peterson sees ample time on 3rd down, and Jones is worked into the mix for a series or two here and there. Again, since one of the most attractive things about Forte this year was his opportunity, his values does suffer with this Jones pickup. We already moved him down to #27 at RB and he’ll likely be moved down to about #30 – a shaky #3 fantasy back.