Jun 11, 2008
Note: If there is a man to discuss Donovan McNabb’s new situation, it’s Adam Caplan, a Philly native and the former editor of footballinjuries.com.
Here’s Adam’s Take:
Much has been made locally about Donovan McNabb and his sore right throwing shoulder. McNabb is expected to miss about two weeks of throwing in their OTAs, so that could push him on the shelf until the final week of June. The OTAs are over in a few weeks.
While it’s only two weeks, he could certainly use the work with his receivers and tight ends. Keep in mind last year at this time McNabb was still limited somewhat from coming back from ACL surgery. It should be noted McNabb is expected to work with his receivers in Arizona at the end of the month or into July, as he usually does every year at this time. But I’m not certain that he got that work in last year because he was coming back from serious knee surgery.
I didn’t realize it until I looked at his numbers but McNabb hasn’t thrown more than 19 TDs in a season since 2004. That probably explains why he’s going off the board in round seven in early drafts. But a closer inspection of his stats show he’s averaged 1.6 TDs/game in the games that he’s played in. He’s missed 15 games in the last three seasons. If you take his average over a 16-game season, he would average 25.7 TDs in those three seasons (not even counting his rushing TDs). Not bad for a QB who doesn’t have great weapons around him.
So it’s just a matter of him being behind center. The numbers will be there. This is and has always been a passing offense. That won’t change as long as Andy Reid is head coach. But can anyone really trust that McNabb will be healthy for 16 games? Probably not.
McNabb turns 32 in November and his margin of error is much smaller in years past. Keep in mind the Eagles are really high on 2007 second-round pick Kevin Kolb who is McNabb’s handpicked successor. The coaching staff already has anointed Kolb as McNabb’s backup so they are prepared for Kolb to start this season if McNabb can’t.
I’ll be talking more about McNabb’s draft position in an early draft observations article but I think McNabb will turn out to be a good value in the seventh round (I grabbed him there in the recent Fantasyguru.com “experts” league draft). However, you’ll need to get a quality backup for insurance. It’s better to be safe than sorry when we’re talking about this player.