McNabb Thoughts

Note: If there is a man to discuss Donovan McNabb’s new situation, it’s Adam Caplan, a Philly native and the former editor of footballinjuries.com.

Here’s Adam’s Take:

Much has been made locally about Donovan McNabb and his sore right throwing shoulder. McNabb is expected to miss about two weeks of throwing in their OTAs, so that could push him on the shelf until the final week of June. The OTAs are over in a few weeks.

While it’s only two weeks, he could certainly use the work with his receivers and tight ends. Keep in mind last year at this time McNabb was still limited somewhat from coming back from ACL surgery. It should be noted McNabb is expected to work with his receivers in Arizona at the end of the month or into July, as he usually does every year at this time. But I’m not certain that he got that work in last year because he was coming back from serious knee surgery.

I didn’t realize it until I looked at his numbers but McNabb hasn’t thrown more than 19 TDs in a season since 2004. That probably explains why he’s going off the board in round seven in early drafts. But a closer inspection of his stats show he’s averaged 1.6 TDs/game in the games that he’s played in. He’s missed 15 games in the last three seasons. If you take his average over a 16-game season, he would average 25.7 TDs in those three seasons (not even counting his rushing TDs). Not bad for a QB who doesn’t have great weapons around him.

So it’s just a matter of him being behind center. The numbers will be there. This is and has always been a passing offense. That won’t change as long as Andy Reid is head coach. But can anyone really trust that McNabb will be healthy for 16 games? Probably not.

McNabb turns 32 in November and his margin of error is much smaller in years past. Keep in mind the Eagles are really high on 2007 second-round pick Kevin Kolb who is McNabb’s handpicked successor. The coaching staff already has anointed Kolb as McNabb’s backup so they are prepared for Kolb to start this season if McNabb can’t.

I’ll be talking more about McNabb’s draft position in an early draft observations article but I think McNabb will turn out to be a good value in the seventh round (I grabbed him there in the recent Fantasyguru.com “experts” league draft). However, you’ll need to get a quality backup for insurance. It’s better to be safe than sorry when we’re talking about this player.

Category: Fantasy Football

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14 Responses

  1. CCarter says:

    McNabb is toast.
    He should only be considered as a backup QB for FFL at this point in his career.
    Think about it. We can All think of 12 other guys we’d rather have as our top QB. Whether its better stats, better upside, better surrounding cast of players, easier schedule or just younger and less injury prone.
    There are lots of reasons why Not to pick McNabb. The tendinitis is just another one.
    Adam said it, he’s done nothing since 2004. I’ll take a chance on someone else.

  2. tpwaller says:

    Last year was the first time I ever got McNabb on one of my teams and boy did he disappoint. I don’t know if he’s toast, but I consider him a low end QB1 with some upside potential due to his offense.

    The Eagles usually have a good line. The WRs are still suspect. He’s got a good receiver in Westbrook.

    As a Cowboys fan and someone who got him last year, I won’t go out of my way to draft him. He’s always a BIG injury risk.

  3. JOOCE says:

    I don’t disagree, as I was also burned by McNabb last year. I would not be happy with him as my starter in 08, but saying he has not done anything since 04 is not true. Let’s not forget that in 2006, there was lots of MVP talk before he was injured.

  4. Adam Caplan says:

    McNabb is the ultimate “let the player fall to you, don’t reach to get him” type of player.

  5. Idiot Savant says:

    This guy can help get you to fantasy playoffs…will he be there to help you win it?? I don’t know..injuries are the key with Mc Nabb. I would not mind having him as my QB after solidifying all my other Starting positions and teaming him up with Schaub, Cutler or Jake Delhomme (who I expect to be quite good if he can remain healthy) perhaps taking Mc Nabb after my first 3 WR’s 2 RB’s TE and perhaps a backup RB..or even in the late 7th…and following up in the 9th with another QB.

  6. Adam Caplan says:

    I agree totally there. That’s what I’m writing in my observations article. You just have to get a good backup like Cutler or Schaub who have upside.

  7. Irishfan says:

    Regarding the upcoming “early draft observations article”, can you comment on auction strategies as well?…….for example, comment on the auction value to target (in a typical “100″ or “200″ point auction league) for a certain player and/or position (QB).

    Thanks!

  8. CCarter says:

    Adam I’m thinking the other way around. I think McNabb should be your backup for Cutler or Schaub. Maybe spot play him when the match up is right, but other than that, I’ll take my chances with one of the “better upside” kids.

    I’m guessing McNabb gets ranked around 15-17 on the Guru’s list of QB’s.

  9. John Hansen says:

    McNabb’s #8. It makes no sense to take Schaub ahead of McNabb. If you like Schaub, fine, but why take him over McNabb when Schaub’s average draft position is likely 30+ spots after McNabb?

    If I’ve missed out on one of the clear elite at the position, and if I’ve loaded up with 5-6 studs at the other positions, I’d be more than willing to take McNabb as my starter and then get a quality backup such as Garrard, Cutler, Schaub, Rivers, Eli, etc.

    We know McNabb wasn’t himself last year (although he looked much better late) and that he’s injury-prone. If not, he’s a 3rd round pick, so he’s easily worth a 7th or 8th round pick on the chance that he can stay generally healthy.

    The last time he was, which wasn’t that long ago in 2006, he was the #1 fantasy QB for the year in PPG and through Week 10, he was the #1 overall in total scoring. People seem to forget that he was a fantasy juggernaut. As of Week 10, he was *the* pick of the year, even ahead of LT, who realyl turned it on after that point.

    As we’ve said for a couple of years now, McNabb may not win you a championship in week 16 or 17, but he could easily get you in a position to win one. That’s exactly what he did for a lot of people in 2006.

  10. tpwaller says:

    I do agree you better have a good backup if you have McNabb as your QB1.

    You know there’s a good chance he’ll get injured (likely season ending considering the number of season ending injuries he’s had). His WR’s are still not that good. I’d consider Reggie Brown as a WR3.

    I agree with Adam – McNabb is the ultimate “let the player fall to you, don’t reach to get him” type of player.

  11. Stork says:

    Is McNabb turning into the next McNair?

  12. jbeau says:

    I wouldn’t say that just yet Stork. When he is in there, he is productive. Not only wins games but puts up good stats. McNair was pretty poor his last few years. May have won games, but he wasn’t good enough to depend on as a #1 fantasy QB.

  13. CCarter says:

    I just checked, #8 huh. OK, if you insist. God knows you rank players better than I do! :)
    I did happen to notice that you had him at #13 in projected passing TDs. And if you bunch the AZ guys together, that makes him #14 in projected passing TDs. I think that kinda proves my point.

    In a serpentine draft, maybe, if he drops to you. In an auction draft, I’m not even targeting him. You may end up with him, but you shouldn’t have to pay much.

    He only missed 2 games last year and threw 19 TDs. Garrard only played in 12 games and threw 18 TDs with about 150 less attempts. I think Philly shutting him down in the OTAs, says he may be getting older, quicker than we think.

  14. John Hansen says:

    The arm is something for watch for sure, but it could be minor. Guys get dead arms this time of the year a lot. That issue is totally unrelated to last year’s knee injury, the one that slowed him down and limited his production. But, in the final 4 games of the season, he clearly started to get his legs under him – and he was the #4 fantasy QB in the league.

    I like Garrard, but the difference between him and McNabb is Garrard’s coach would love to run on every down, and McNabb’s coach would like to throw it on every down.

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