Apr 23, 2008
I think we can all agree that 2007 was a tough year for fantasy. Mainly because it was a down year for RBs, and there were the usual number of injuries, there were more disappointments than strong producers plucked in the early rounds. However, I’ve learned over the years that thing tend to even out in fantasy. When there are a disproportionate number of disappointments one year, for example, there are usually a higher number of values the next. I think that will be the case this year.
One of the things that stood out to me while doing our RB writeups for the magazine was that the player I had in my top-12 didn’t seem to have a disconcerting amount of downside. Everyone has some downside, or course, and a guy like Frank Gore may have a lot of it. But I really feel as if this year’s first round should be a lot less treacherous than last year. That said, I can’t see taking QB Tom Brady in the first, and I might be inclined to pass on Randy Moss. After the first, I’m totally in BPA mode (Best Player Available), but as I’m preparing for my first “Expert Draft” of the year one week from today (I’ll cover it here), I’m pretty locked into taking a RB with my first pick – unless I pick like #10-12 and I decide to roll with Moss. I’m not taking Brady in the 1st in a 12-team league, that’s for sure.
Here’s a look at my top-12 as of right now:
LaDainian Tomlinson – I can’t remove him from the top spot just yet.
Adrian Peterson – I can’t pass on him and his upside at #2.
Brian Westbrook – A certifiable stud, so I’ll take on his injury risk.
Joseph Addai – As stated last year, the safest guy on the board after LT in the 1st.
Steven Jackson – Pretty damn solid and the situation has to be improved at least slightly.
Frank Gore – When in doubt I’m going to roll with a true stud, and Gore is one.
Marion Barber – The guy was well within the top-10 last year in a true timeshare, so he’s very safe.
Clinton Portis – Until the wheels fall off, you have to give him this respect.
Maurice Drew – Very safe, with the potential to carry you.
Marshawn Lynch – Still think he’s pretty safe, and if the receiving production comes, he’ll be more than fine.
Willis McGahee – Not in love, but production last year was nice.
Laurence Maroney – Lack of action in the passing game hurts a lot, but a lot of other things working in his favor.
As you can see, there are a lot of safe and steady options here. And other than LT and Portis, not a lot of tread on these guys’ tires.