This year’s breakout QB

I was thinking about the Super Bowl yesterday. It’s been over two weeks, but I still can’t believe what the Giants did. More specifically, I still can’t believe the meteoric rise of Eli Manning. I’ll admit I was frustrated when he was seemingly regressing in the second half of the season this past year, but that was mainly because I have been a pretty big Eli backer in the past and because I was so impressed with the improvement he made in everything from his accuracy to his body language. But in the end, Manning has shown why I was high on him.

It got me thinking about the QBs. I’m wrong all the time about players, but when it comes to the quarterbacks, I’m usually on the right track if I’m enamored with a player. I go back to Trent Green in 2001, and Matt Hasselbeck I believe that same year. Those guys were busts, and I was wrong to push them on readers that year, but 8-9 Pro Bowls later for those two players, it’s clear I was on the right track. I was right about Carson Palmer, and I will be right about Jay Cutler, for sure. I was a believer in Jeff Garcia very early, and definitely Donovan McNabb. I ranked Daunte Culpepper #3 at QB in 2000 despite his not starting one NFL game (he had 40 TDs that year).

I’m trying to think of a QB who I liked a lot for more than one single season but who never truly panned out and I honestly have to go back to 1996 (to, gulp, Rick Mirer). I don’t mean a guy I like for a given year, like Rex Grossman, who I liked last year because of his value (13th or 14th round) and his potential to put up surprising numbers. I’m talking about a guy who I’m completely sold on an NFL player, over the long haul.

One player I am completely sold on is Houston’s Matt Schaub. I do now worry about his durability, but I love Schaub. If he’s healthy in 2008, he’s going to be a top-10 QB and he’s going to have a legitimate chance to account for 30 TDs. If Ben Roethlisberger can account for 30+ on a supposedly conservative Steeler offense, than Schaub can certainly hit that mark as well. Schaub has a true stud in Andre Johnson, and a TE in Owen Daniels who is just a tier below some of the stars at the position like Jason Witten and Dallas Clark. I like Kevin Walter a lot as well, and if Jacoby Jones can push him to the slot (a role he’s well suited for), then you’re looking at a passing attack that will be downright scary. The Texans will have a healthier O-Line this year, and they made add a tackle early in the draft. They also added legendary line coach Alex Gibbs, who knows their blocking scheme better than anyone. They will have a get a back, but between free agency and the draft they should be able to get a significant upgrade without having to pay too much. Their defense is still an issue, however, but at least that should mean Schaub will have to throw the ball a lot in 2008 (they might not get stud corner Dunta Robinson back).

It’s very early, but the evidence supporting a big year from Schaub is compelling, not to mention the fact that when I’m all over a quarterback, I’m usually proven right eventually.

And I’m all over Schaub.

Category: Fantasy Football


8 Responses

  1. jbeau says:

    Definitely agree with you here John. I don’t think its a stretch to consider him a top 10 guy. Especially if they get a solid RB via free agency\draft to take some pressure off of Schaub. Another off season to gel with Johnson, should make this duo deadly.

  2. tpwaller says:

    As a Houstonian (but not a Texans fan), I look soley at the production of the Texans quarterbacks. I know the Texans traded away too much for Schaub and paid him big money, but I like Sage Rosenfals. Sage reminds me a lot of Tony Romo. Good mobility and a playmaker who wasn’t highly touted out of college.

    David Carr took a beating behind the Texans line but still came back for more (probably did him in). Matt Schaub heads to the DL quickly.

    I did draft Schaub based on your recommendation. On the one game I needed him because of byes, he busted on me.

    I’m a big Canes’ fan and I like Andre Johnson. He has great skills, but I wonder if he has the heart to be a truly great player like Terrelll Owens (a player he’s often compared to). Fact is he has never been a Top 10 WR in what 5 0r 6 years.

  3. tpwaller says:

    I may be wrong but in Schaub’s starts I think he was average at best. Everyone thinks he has the tools but so did most of the David Carrs we can name. I am going to say that he is still unproven and still plays for a team with a terrible OL.

    I hope he turns into the real deal but I am not convinced of it by any means.

    – Bud T.
    Houston, TX

  4. John Hansen says:

    Schaub played very well last year. Anyone who actually watched him play believes that, including my buddy Ron Jaworski, who studied him on the coach’s tape.

  5. jbeau says:

    Schaub started out the season pretty well. Comp pct 74% over 4 games with a rating slighty over 100. Not bad for a guy on a new team. A year in the system, with an absolute stud in Johnson, a developing slot reciever in Davis and a good TE..and I like his chances. I gotta go with John on this one, cause he always provides me a QB who I can pick up in the 6th or 7th round and produce. That QB usually doesn’t produce the whole year(Hassleback, Kitna), but the key is to have a nice backup too and play matchups.

  6. tpwaller says:

    Here’s the numbers. In a quarterback, I look for at least a 2-1 TD: Int ratio.

    Schaub had 9 TDs, 9 INTS and 7 fumbles. So his TD to turnover ratio was 9:16 – I’ll pass.

    He gives you no rushing yards – fine but that doesn’t help out fantasy wise.

    Schaub had 0 three touchdown games.
    He had 3 two touchdown games and there were 5 games with 0 touchdowns (some I’m sure he early because of injuries).

    He threw for 300 yards in a game once.

    These numbers don’t get me excited and it’s far from “very well.”

  7. [email protected] says:

    I liked Schaub enough to start him several times. But how many first half injuries can you take?

  8. tpwaller says:

    For the Texans sake, I hope he does well.

    I just can’t get over how you’d pay someone with 6 career TDs and 6 career INTs over 3 years $48 million.

    Funny he put up 9 TD and 9 INT’s as a HOU starter.

    Hey, at a Collective Soul concert, their lead singer talked up Schaub.

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