Jan 29, 2008 1
As some of you may know, I’m not a big numbers guy. I certainly understand the power of some statistics, and I do find many stats to be very revealing. The main problem I have with “numbers people” based on my experiences is that these individuals often put too much weight and emphasis on the numbers. The numbers really tell only a part of the story. Sometimes, they don’t tell a story at all.
I get especially perturbed when we get e-mails following a week of NFL action from people who are dismayed and confused as to why a certain player didn’t fulfill his expectations and didn’t meet his projections. It’s as if these people believe there is actually a mathematical formula that we can plug in that should result in a projection for the week that will be at least 90% accurate.
The problem is; it’s still football.
Certainly, crunching the numbers is necessary, and it can be effective and lead to accuracy when projecting stats. But analyzing the numbers is only one small aspect of projecting weekly stats. Analyzing the actual player matchups is another.
But ultimately, we’re all at the mercy of the football Gods.
That point was [...]