Nov 2, 2007
by Jim Coventry, Guest Blogger
Fantasy football is a game of values and it is a lesson that a few people get perfectly, most get to a degree, and others live by the credo of ‘ignorance is bliss.’ The lesson of value is always timely and like everything else in fantasy football, is constantly changing.
When you prepared for your draft you (hopefully) thought about the value of all the players on the draft board. You should have assigned each player a value specific to your team, then you should have checked the player’s average draft position (ADP,) and then made adjustments for the particular league you play in. If you didn’t do that and consider yourself ultra-competitive at fantasy football, you should start doing this next year.
After your draft was over, you should have also learned lessons about your league and how they valued players. Particular players had value by the spot they were drafted at, while positions had value by how quickly your league depleted the talent pool at each of the positions. If you play with the same group of owners every year, you would be wise to archive your league drafts to look for league trends as well as owner-specific trends. The information you can gain about your foes is invaluable.
Of course, an article about drafting is pretty useless right about now, unless you can go to your league site and make a copy of the draft results, if you haven’t done so yet. The purpose of this post is to see how you can use player value to your advantage for the rest of this season.
Here are some players that have had a spike in value since draft day (this is not nearly an exhaustive list, just a set of examples)
QBs: Tom Brady, Derek Anderson, and Tony Romo
RBs: Adrian Peterson (Min,) Marion Barber, & LaMont Jordan
WRs: Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Wes Welker, Laveranues Coles, & Dwayne Bowe
TEs: Dallas Clark and Heath Miller
Of course, that gets followed by the list of players that have fallen in value…..
QBs: Donovan McNabb, Jon Kitna, Marc Bulger, Drew Brees, and Vince Young
RBs: Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Shaun Alexander, Reggie Bush, Cedric Benson, Rudi Johnson, & Laurence Maroney
WRs: Torry Holt, Roy Williams, Donald Driver, Marques Colston, Marvin Harrison, and Lee Evans.
TEs: Todd Heap and Alge Crumpler.
All of these changes in value have occurred in a little more than two months. If you were one of the smart players keeping an eye an values and making trades/transactions accordingly, you are likely in a very good spot right now, but my guess is that well over 75% of owners had a difficult time admitting they were so wrong on draft day, if their player has soiled the bed. Most owners keep waiting for their draft-day bargain to come-around. Well, I’m here to tell you that it might not be happening.
Use this knowledge to your advantage. Will you be a buyer, seller, or both?
Seller? There are owners in every league willing to take a chance on a player finding the glory of past years, and they are often willing to pay quite a bit for a particular player. Make those trade offers now and make them with multiple teams. Sell your player in a note to other owners, don’t just cold call. Also, try to do some thinking for your rival owners, such as, “Wouldn’t Shaun Alexander’s second half rebound help launch you to a title run? The Seattle WRs are all coming back and the Hawks can now spread the field. In return, I am looking to get (Insert player names here.)
Buyer? Maybe you believe that one or two of these players are headed for a breakout second half. Make those trade offers to frustrated owners and also send them a note trying to sell them on your deal.
I cannot stress this enough- cold calling with just a trade offer put through the server will not work well in a competitive league. You’ve got to be the CEO of your team. Promote it, work in sales, futures, whatever it takes to make your team a champion.
Remember one simple rule: Always know what perceived value of players and find a way to use it to your advantage!