Jun 14, 2007
First off, we posted another “Fantasy Guru Minute” Clip last night and you can check it out here:
We’re working on embedding the YouTube clip right on the site, so that’ll be cool and hopefully yet another reason for you to stop by.
On to today’s topic: I was glad to see a positive article about Texan RB Ahman Green today. I normally don’t advocate aging backs on new and weaker teams, but I’ve been feeling Green as a strong fantasy prospect ever since the team dumped QB David Carr and added Matt Schaub, who I like a lot. According to an article published by the Associated Press, Houston assistant head coach and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman said Green looks as good as he’s ever seen him look. Sherman’s been around Green for a while, including his monstrous 2003 season, so that’s good to hear.
I surely don’t have any delusions about Green being a fantasy stud again at this point in his career and on this team, but he’s looking like he will be a very handy fantasy player, and a good value. Green’s now 30, but he doesn’t have a ton of mileage on his body. He played behind Laurence Phillips for a while at Nebraska (I’ll give you that seems like a lifetime ago), and he didn’t play much at all behind Rickey Watters in his first two seasons in the NFL. If there’s one area he’s slipped in, it’s probably his ability to break off the long run. I can deal with that no problem as long as he’s averaging at least 4.0 yards a carry (that was his 2006 number).
People seem to forget Houston is running the Denver system, the same offense and blocking scheme that has transformed undrafted free agents to fantasy studs and 6th round draft picks into potential Hall of Famers. This team was actually tied for 10th in the league last year in rushing TDs with 13. Their line is still an issue, but it’s not as awful as the casual fan may think. And if Ron Dayne can rush for 95, 87, 94, and 153 yards along with 5 TDs in his final four games, then Green can certainly put up more than respectable numbers in 2007.
The Texans kept Dayne around this year for good reason. He’s a solid power guy in this system. He could vulture a short score or two from Green, but overall I view the presence of Dayne as a positive, since the former Giant and Bronco should serve to keep Green healthy and fresh. Green did seem to wear down last year: In his 1st seven games, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry; in his 2nd seven, 3.6. I suppose Wali Lundy could get some time on the field as more of a receiving back, but Green can catch the ball very well.
I’ve done five expert drafts so far this year, and I like all my teams, but I think the team I like the best I like because I was able to get Green as my #2 RB in the 5th round. I’m not married to going RB-RB, this year, in fact unless I’m drafting new the bottom of Round One I probably won’t, and Green is looking like a key to my draft plan this year if I’m picking at the top or middle of the first round.
If Green pans out – keep in mind he only has to be healthy to be at least decent – then check out the first five players I took in this one expert league:
I don’t know how much better anyone can do with his or her first five picks, and Green is the key.