Ahman could be “The Mon”

First off, we posted another “Fantasy Guru Minute” Clip last night and you can check it out here:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOI-oTuDrpk[/youtube]

We’re working on embedding the YouTube clip right on the site, so that’ll be cool and hopefully yet another reason for you to stop by.

On to today’s topic: I was glad to see a positive article about Texan RB Ahman Green today. I normally don’t advocate aging backs on new and weaker teams, but I’ve been feeling Green as a strong fantasy prospect ever since the team dumped QB David Carr and added Matt Schaub, who I like a lot. According to an article published by the Associated Press, Houston assistant head coach and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman said Green looks as good as he’s ever seen him look. Sherman’s been around Green for a while, including his monstrous 2003 season, so that’s good to hear.

I surely don’t have any delusions about Green being a fantasy stud again at this point in his career and on this team, but he’s looking like he will be a very handy fantasy player, and a good value. Green’s now 30, but he doesn’t have a ton of mileage on his body. He played behind Laurence Phillips for a while at Nebraska (I’ll give you that seems like a lifetime ago), and he didn’t play much at all behind Rickey Watters in his first two seasons in the NFL. If there’s one area he’s slipped in, it’s probably his ability to break off the long run. I can deal with that no problem as long as he’s averaging at least 4.0 yards a carry (that was his 2006 number).

People seem to forget Houston is running the Denver system, the same offense and blocking scheme that has transformed undrafted free agents to fantasy studs and 6th round draft picks into potential Hall of Famers. This team was actually tied for 10th in the league last year in rushing TDs with 13. Their line is still an issue, but it’s not as awful as the casual fan may think. And if Ron Dayne can rush for 95, 87, 94, and 153 yards along with 5 TDs in his final four games, then Green can certainly put up more than respectable numbers in 2007.

The Texans kept Dayne around this year for good reason. He’s a solid power guy in this system. He could vulture a short score or two from Green, but overall I view the presence of Dayne as a positive, since the former Giant and Bronco should serve to keep Green healthy and fresh. Green did seem to wear down last year: In his 1st seven games, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry; in his 2nd seven, 3.6. I suppose Wali Lundy could get some time on the field as more of a receiving back, but Green can catch the ball very well.

I’ve done five expert drafts so far this year, and I like all my teams, but I think the team I like the best I like because I was able to get Green as my #2 RB in the 5th round. I’m not married to going RB-RB, this year, in fact unless I’m drafting new the bottom of Round One I probably won’t, and Green is looking like a key to my draft plan this year if I’m picking at the top or middle of the first round.

If Green pans out – keep in mind he only has to be healthy to be at least decent – then check out the first five players I took in this one expert league:

Steven Jackson
Chad Johnson
Marvin Harrison
Drew Brees
Ahman Green

I don’t know how much better anyone can do with his or her first five picks, and Green is the key.

Category: Fantasy Football, FantasyGuru.com News

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5 Responses

  1. ericcartman says:

    I’m liking the video. You should let me create a nice backdrop for you and have some embroidered Guru golf-style shirts made. A mic flag would be nice too.

  2. FanProphet says:

    Guru, I love this video stuff you have going on here. You have a perfect voice for talk radio or broadcasting. You’re definitely making it happen.
    Great article on Green. Some very good points are made, but with no offensive line, Green’s history of fumbling, and the fact that he hates contact, I don’t see the same value. On the other hand, you’re right, I can’t see how anybody could’ve had such a good draft with their first 5 players.

    -FanProphet

  3. Fridge says:

    Well done on the video feeds — I want to echo FanProphet’s comment that you sound just like a broadcaster or talk radio host.

    In all events, I’m not sure where the appropriate forum for this question might be, but I thought this as good as any: you comment that you “don’t know how much better anyone can do with his or her first five picks” with Green as your #2 back. This strikes me as right, especially in a league where you start 2 backs and 3 wrs. But I’m in a large number of leagues in which teams can start 3 rbs and 3 wrs, sometimes in addition to a TE (others the third wr slot can be switched for a TE). How does your draft strategy change when you probably should start 3 rbs instead of 2 rbs? Are you even heavier on the running backs in the early rounds?

    Personally, I usually want to get my 3 backs in the first four or five rounds, depending on how folks are picking; and I almost always go RB-RB-RB if the value is there. My strategy changes in PPR leagues, obviously, but the general gist is the same.

    In all events, I’d be very interested to hear your thoughts on draft strategy in light of changing starting rosters.

  4. mvuinc says:

    I would be very happy if I had those 5 players as my first 5 picks.

  5. Baron says:

    This is awsome stuff, John. I love it already. I really wonder how you manage to handle all these brilliant jobs each and every day – do your days have more than 24 hours?

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