May 8, 2007
“I don’t even want to get another X-ray until after this camp.”
“If the X-ray shows it’s still cracked, it’s like, OK, what does that mean?’ ”
The preceding was brought to you this week by one Shaun Alexander, and he certainly sparked a lot of thoughts and speculation as it relates to his fantasy value.
Alexander went on to say that they’ll X-ray to see if the crack it closed, but that he feels good. It’s a good sign that was participating normally in the first minicamp of the season this past weekend and early this week. So unless we hear some bad news these next 4-6 weeks, I’m going to assume Alexander will be ok.
But it’s a good time to throw out some thoughts on Alexander. He’s a tough one to deal with because he’s been so damn productive. What I mean by that is, what if his TD numbers are down 50% from his last complete season, 2005? That would be falling off a cliff for most players, but for Alexander it would mean he’d score “only” 14 TDs in 2007. That’s the issue; if his production falls way off this year he’ll still be a very productive fantasy option, so he’s hard to rank too low. I’m currently projecting his 2007 TD numbers to be down 40% compared to 2005, and that still has him falling to #5 on my RB list. We’ll see how things shape up this summer – the team is revamping it’s O-Line, which is something to watch – but for now I have to believe he’ll be worth taking that high. If QB Matt Hasselbeck is healthy, I do think this offense will be just fine.
I will say this about Alexander: It’s tough to argue the production side of Alexander because there’s obviously been a lot of production. But we have a tough time watching him and feeling the same as we feel about an LT or even a Frank Gore. It’s not that he doesn’t give top effort on every play, but he can’t make much on his own and he still doesn’t run as hard as you’d like to see. He’s not a guy who makes his O-line better. He’s a “gaping hole” runner, he needs room to run. I hate to say it, but he’s a guy who call fall off the map like that.
The question is, will that happen in 2007?
That is going to be a big question this year, and a very tough question.
We may find some of the answers while breaking down the progress of their O-Line this year. If they’re able to open gaping holes, than SA should be fine.