Free Agency: It’s not “all good”

As I hope you’ve noticed, we’ve covered the key (and some not-so-very key) free agent moves up until this point. I’ve been busy following and analyzing all of that, so I haven’t done much blogging. Things are slowing down, so I have a topic to cover here.

It’s very easy to be nothing but positive this time of the year when analyzing the free agent movement. When players go to new teams, it’s always because that need needs him, so it’s easy to be bullish. You have the change of scenery, players talking about being “excited” or “energized” by the moves, and there’s usually some encouragement caused by the unknown.

I like a lot of the moves that have been made, but there are a few that don’t do much for me. So, submitted for your digestion, is my top-10 list of the worst free agent moves so far. Some of these moves, I think, will go down as busts, while others I just can’t get particularly excited about.

  1. Jamal Lewis to the Browns – It’s only a one-year deal, so don’t assume the Browns are out of the mix for Adrian Peterson. Teams use two backs more than ever now, and the bruising Lewis and the speedier Peterson would be a solid combo for one year. But I think Lewis’ skills will continue to deteriorate, so I just can’t get excited about him running behind a weak line and with a questionable supporting cast.

  1. Joe Horn to the Falcons – For athletes, the first thing to go are the legs, and Horn’s appear to be going (calf and hamstring injuries the last two seasons). The Falcons got better on offense with this move, for sure, but can a 35-year old Horn make a fantasy splash on this team, with other weapons to throw to (especially the TE) and Michael Vick throwing it? In a new system? I doubt it.

  1. Joey Porter to the Dolphins – I don’t know what the hell the Dolphins are doing this off-season, letting receivers Wes Welker and Randy McMichael go and overpaying for Porter. Porter will benefit playing with Jason Taylor, but Porter’s skills are on the decline, so I think he’ll have only 1-2 good years here. The Dolphins aren’t ready to make a serious playoff run, which would have been the only way this move would have made sense.

  1. Ahman Green to the Texans – I think Green will get things done this year in this system, but can you really get excited about an older player who doesn’t have the same explosiveness as he once had, on this bad team? If healthy, Green will put up 1100 or so yards rushing with 6-8 TDs. That’s not bad, but it’s not particularly good, either.

  1. Ashley Lelie to the 49ers – I’ve given up on Lelie realizing his potential, but my gut feeling is that he has some bright moments these next few years in the NFL. But QB Alex Smith might take a step back this year with Norv Turner gone, and he doesn’t have a strong enough arm to consistently make big plays to Lelie.

  1. Visanthe Shiancoe to the Vikings – The Vikings like his speed and hope he emerges as a serious force down the seam. We’ll see. I’m not holding my breath and I don’t think there’s anything close a body of work that illustrates the Vikes made a good call here.

  1. David Martin to the Dolphins – The Dolphins are projecting him as a better fit for their offense, one that will ask the TE to make plays down the field, similar to what Antonio Gates did for the Chargers. Martin, a former wideout, has the speed and ability to do that, but it remains to be seen if he can hold up in a full-time role. He’s been injured a lot even playing behind Bubba Franks.

  1. Dominic Rhodes to the Raiders – I don’t like this move simply because it creates a committee situation, at least for this year it does. When the Raider want to pound the ball, LaMont Jordan will be a better option, so this move basically reduces from both players’ potential.

  1. Reuben Droughns to the Giants – Similarly, this one could create a committee situation. At the end of the day, I think the Giants made this deal because Droughns came at a cheap price, and he’s a good presence and insurance policy. But in a perfect world, the Giants would have added more of a scat back (they may still, in the draft).

  1. Daniel Graham to the Broncos – I like Graham, but I also like Tony Scheffler, and this move hurts the potential of both. Both have a lot to offer, and they will offer it to the Broncos, but at the others’ expense. Graham could double Scheffler’s TD total, and Scheffler could double Graham’s yardage total. Graham’s a pretty good receiver with more potential as a playmaking type than people think, but there’s no way they ignore the receiving potential of Scheffler, so both will play.

Category: Fantasy Football

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3 Responses

  1. [...] Original post by John Hansen and software by Elliott   [...]

  2. bsteinbe73 says:

    I apologize if this is too much of a WDIS but it seems relevant enough as it really comes down to comparing BJacobs to THenry and Vick to Palmer.

    I was offered Palmer and Jacobs for Vick, Schaub, THenry, and my #1 next year. He is also throwing in ABryant to even out rosters. His team is in a total rebuild but is unwilling to accept any modifications.

    This is a standard mature dynasty league (6th season?) 12×24 with 1 UTIL and no PPR or special rules. Henry is actually my RB4 as I have SA, Westy, and RBrown too. At WR I have SSmith and CJ with RMoss and BJones for depth and Gates at TE. QB may be the weak link with only Garcia and Garrard for depth and no #1 pick this year.

    My initial response to his offer is no but after your take on Palmer last week if he’s in for a monster season the downgrade of RB4 may be an acceptable price to pay; especially as Henry still comes with risk. That said, Henry has RB1 upside which I don’t think Jacobs does if anything should happen to one of my top 3 RB’s unless I am forced to field a 3rd WR.

  3. John Hansen says:

    Sorry, I did not see this. I would have said no, too, even before Schaub’s value went way up. Vick might be pretty damn solid this year, and you have Schaub as a solid backup. I would stick with them, and of course Henry as your RB.

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