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Articles: Strategy

Conference Championship Round Kicker Recommendations
Conference Championship Round Kicker Recommendations
PUBLISHED: Wednesday, January 18, 2017 11:59 AM EST
Kickers put the foot in football with an 11.9 FP average in the Divisional Round. That is so far off a normal week for kickers that it's hard to say much about a system predicated on kickers doing what kickers usually do. When a "Sit" kickers puts up 11 FP, and that group (of one) is tied for the lo...
Divisional Round Kicker Recommendations
Divisional Round Kicker Recommendations
PUBLISHED: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 12:29 PM EST
Kickers averaged 7.5 FP in the Wild Card Round. The system had pretty mixed results, with the "Marginal Starts" only going 50-50. The best kickers of the week were "Neutrals" – all topped 7 FP and the two double digit results coming from this group: Start/Sit Decisions For Kickers in Week 18, ...
How Many Games Vegas Thinks Your Guy Will Play
How Many Games Vegas Thinks Your Guy Will Play
PUBLISHED: Thursday, January 5, 2017 12:00 AM EST
Many fantasy football formats in the NFL playoffs ask you to pick a team before the postseason starts and then keep that team throughout the playoffs. An important factor in building your team is predicting how many games each team – and therefore its players – will get to play. The ideal player is ...
Wild-Card Round Kicker Recommendations
Wild-Card Round Kicker Recommendations
PUBLISHED: Wednesday, January 4, 2017 12:00 AM EST
Kickers averaged a poor 6.7 FP in Week 17. The system did okay. "Marginal Starts" had the highest average FP at 7.8 and a mediocre winning percentage at .583, edging "Starts" at 7.7 FP with the same W-L record. "Neutrals" were at the 50-50 proposition level, with their average FP of 6.8 almost match...
Playoff Targets and Sleepers
Playoff Targets and Sleepers
PUBLISHED: Monday, January 2, 2017 12:00 AM EST
  Published, 1/2/17   Quarterbacks   Targets   Tom Brady (NE) – Duh. In his age-39 season, Tom Brady finished the year with a 28:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his second-best completion rate (67.4%) of his career. Brady’s touchdown rate (6.5%) is his third best percentage of h...
Fantasy Playoff Strategy
Fantasy Playoff Strategy
PUBLISHED: Monday, January 2, 2017 12:00 AM EST
While luck almost always plays a big role in your success in the fantasy playoffs, you’re even more so at the mercy of the football gods when it comes to participating in NFL Playoff fantasy leagues, since your players’ fantasy fortunes hinge on whether or not their teams advance in the post-season....
Start Your Stud QBs?
Start Your Stud QBs?
PUBLISHED: Thursday, December 22, 2016 12:00 AM EST
When trying to decide who to start, there are two basic factors to consider: the candidate player's ability and his matchup. Late last season, I did a series of articles on who to start at RB, WR, and TE that looked at quantifying those factors. I extended that methodology to the flex position earli...
Kicking it in the Cold
Kicking it in the Cold
PUBLISHED: Thursday, December 15, 2016 12:00 AM EST
It's a common observation in fantasy football that we don't want to play a kicker in bad weather. But I wondered if it's the cold temperature or something else that we should be worried about. So I went to Pro Football Reference and dug around in the indices to gather data on the rate of made fie...
Desperation TE Plays
Desperation TE Plays
PUBLISHED: Friday, December 9, 2016 12:00 AM EST
Several years ago, I wrote an article on this topic. Right now many owners are struggling to find a fantasy playoffs replacement for an injured stud TE, with Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed both hurt, I thought I'd update my research. My goal is to use TE statistics through Week 13 to find like...
RB Matchups: Rushing or Receiving
RB Matchups: Rushing or Receiving
PUBLISHED: Friday, December 2, 2016 12:00 AM EST
This week I wanted to look at running back matchups for the remaining (for most leagues) four weeks of the fantasy season through the lens. But I wanted to focus on whether upcoming defenses give up more points to RBs on the ground or through the air. And I wanted to use lots of colors.   The scor...
Thursday Night Blues, Again?
Thursday Night Blues, Again?
PUBLISHED: Wednesday, November 23, 2016 12:00 AM EST
Once again, the topic of poor football games on Thursday has been a topic of discussion on the message boards. I addressed this back in 2012 when TNF was first a thing, but we've got several years of data now, so I thought I'd look at it again. And it's particularly topical this week with the most-T...
Picking Playoff Defenses
Picking Playoff Defenses
PUBLISHED: Friday, November 18, 2016 12:00 AM EST
As often happens, I see a thread or comment on the message board that inspires me to take a deeper look at a topic and write about. This week the discussion was on picking a defense for the fantasy playoffs. The biggest problem in writing about fantasy defenses is the multiplicity of scoring syst...
How Good is Vegas?
How Good is Vegas?
PUBLISHED: Friday, November 11, 2016 12:00 AM EST
Many, if not all, of you are familiar with the idea of using Vegas odds – the over/under and spread – to identify games where a lot of fantasy production is expected. The thought process is that high-scoring games will have a lot of offensive TDs, and the yards needed to get those touchdowns, and th...
D/ST Streaming: Week 7
D/ST Streaming: Week 7
PUBLISHED: Friday, October 21, 2016 12:00 AM EDT
In most leagues, only about 12-14 D/ST’s are on rosters leaving owners with a palatable amount of options if they are in need of a defense. Streaming your defense based on opponent strength and expected game script can give fantasy owners untapped upside on their roster. (Author’s Note: This column...
Mastering the Matchups: Week 7
Mastering the Matchups: Week 7
PUBLISHED: Friday, October 21, 2016 11:19 AM EDT
Greg Cosell is one of the most respected NFL analysts in the country, and he’s been a contributor/consultant with Fantasy Guru for about 10 years. When it comes to analyzing matchups and personnel, Greg is the best. No one watches more film than he does thanks to his gigs at NFL Films and as the Sen...
It's the Workload, Stupid!
It's the Workload, Stupid!
PUBLISHED: Friday, October 21, 2016 12:00 AM EDT
We'd all like to know how our fantasy players are going to do the rest of the year. In this article I'll look specifically at running backs using two measures: fantasy points per game (FP/G) from Weeks 7 to 17 and the change in FP/G between Weeks 1 to 6 and Weeks 7-17. If you've read my articles fo...
Week 7 Kicker Recommendations
Week 7 Kicker Recommendations
PUBLISHED: Friday, October 21, 2016 08:59 AM EDT
Kickers averaged 8.1 FP, sa little over their season average of 7.9. The system had a relatively poor week. "Starts" did pretty well, averaging 8.2 FP and posting a good winning percentage. But "Sits" confounded the system, outscoring the "Marginal Starts" and reversing my target W-L. "Neutrals" wer...
Week 6 Trending Topics
Week 6 Trending Topics
PUBLISHED: Friday, October 14, 2016 12:00 AM EDT
We field thousands of questions each week on Twitter, and we try our damndest to answer them all – just don’t ask lineup questions Tuesday morning or 1 minute before kickoff. Every week in this spot, I’ll highlight a few of the questions that we’ve seen a little more than usual. As always, feel free...
Mastering the Matchups: Week 6
Mastering the Matchups: Week 6
PUBLISHED: Friday, October 14, 2016 12:00 AM EDT
Greg Cosell is one of the most respected NFL analysts in the country, and he’s been a contributor/consultant with Fantasy Guru for about 10 years. When it comes to analyzing matchups and personnel, Greg is the best. No one watches more film than he does thanks to his gigs at NFL Films and as the Sen...
Week 6 Kick Returners Preview
Week 6 Kick Returners Preview
PUBLISHED: Friday, October 14, 2016 08:12 PM EDT
Kickers averaged 8.2 FP, so it was a pretty good week for them overall.  The system had an okay week.  "Starts" scored well, although not as highly as the "Marginal Starts," and the former's W-L record was below the "two-thirds right" goal.  "Neutrals" scored pretty well as a group and several had d...
D/ST Streaming: Week 6
D/ST Streaming: Week 6
PUBLISHED: Tuesday, October 11, 2016 02:56 PM EDT
In most leagues, only about 12-14 D/STs are on rosters, leaving owners with a palatable amount of options if they are in need of a defense. Streaming your defense based on opponent strength and expected game script can give fantasy owners untapped upside on their roster. (Author’s Note: This column...
Mastering the Matchups: Week 5
Mastering the Matchups: Week 5
PUBLISHED: Saturday, October 8, 2016 12:00 AM EDT
Greg Cosell is one of the most respected NFL analysts in the country, and he’s been a contributor/consultant with Fantasy Guru for about 10 years. When it comes to analyzing matchups and personnel, Greg is the best. No one watches more film than he does thanks to his gigs at NFL Films and as the Sen...
Week 5 Kicker Recommendations
Week 5 Kicker Recommendations
PUBLISHED: Saturday, October 8, 2016 09:07 PM EDT
Kickers averaged 7.6 FP, a little below 2015's average. The system had an excellent week. For the second straight week, the average FP lined up exactly as I'd like to see, from "Sits" scoring the lowest to "Starts" scoring the highest. And W-L percentage also cooperated: "Sits" and "Starts" were cor...
D/ST Streaming: Week 5
D/ST Streaming: Week 5
PUBLISHED: Saturday, October 8, 2016 12:00 AM EDT
In most leagues, only about 12-14 D/ST’s are on rosters leaving owners with a palatable amount of options if they are in need of a defense. Streaming your defense based on opponent strength and expected game script can give fantasy owners untapped upside on their roster. (Author’s Note: This column...