I have to tell you, I’m sick of the pre-season. It feels like the Hall of Fame game was about 3 months ago. How many days of camp do these guys need? They train year-round, for crying out loud. Injuries abound. We’re deluged with information that’ll be completely irrelevant by Sept 14^th. Enough already! But I need to get in on this meaningless speculation, so here’s my ALL IDP TEAM for those of you in comprehensive and tackle-based scoring systems this season.

Comprehensive Leagues:

DE: Super Mario

DT: Double Yuck – I’ll go retro with Kevin Williams
DE: Julius Peppers

LB: Karlos Dansby
LB: Patrick Willis
LB: Demeco Ryans
LB: Kirk Morrison

S: Kerry Rhodes – big bounce back gives him a slight edge over A-Wilson, who needs to stay healthy
S: Sean Jones
CB: Richard Marshall
CB: Antonio Cromartie

Tackle-Based Leagues:
DE: Justin Tuck
DT: Jovan Haye
DE: Aaron Schobel

LB: Patrick Willis
LB: Demeco Ryans
LB: David Harris
LB: D’Qwell Jackson edging Paul Posluszny

S: Gibril Wilson
S: Adrian Wilson
CB: Darrelle Revis
CB: Nate Clements

- DL I have high on the projections that I’m a bit worried about: Tamba Hali - I doubt I’d have him this high (No. 14) if he weren’t a guy I thought would be an impact player since college).
- LB I have high on the projections that I’m a bit worried about: London Fletcher (has to get old sometime).

- DB I have high on the projections that I’m a bit worried about: Atari Bigby (recent bad vibes you probably shouldn’t listen to) and Eric Wright (fear of a future benching).

DL I’d love to list higher, but know better: Julius Peppers
LB I’d love to list higher, but have no proof: Justin Durant
DB I’d love to list higher, but am scarred by ‘07’s scathing message board responses: Kerry Rhodes

10 Guys That Would be Listed Higher but They Play with a Lot of Dudes That Make Plays

LB Thomas Davis
LB Chad Greenway

LB Curtis Lofton
LB LeRoy Hill
DL Derek Landri
DB Reggie Nelson
DB Tanard Jackson
DB Brandon Meriweather
DB Antoine Winfield
DB Will Demps

More to come until we kick-off next Thursday Night …

I drafted in a 10-team expert league this past week, but I didn’t get a chance to share my results, as we’ve been knee-deep in preseason analysis and developments at Guru Headquarters. Since I just did a write-up on my personal 10-team plan of attack, I thought you might be interested to see how I put it to use. I was handed the #6 draft spot in what is a PPR format.

The roster requirements: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1FLEX, 1TE, 1PK, 1DEF

The results:

1.06 Moss, Randy NEP WR

2.05 Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

3.06 Holmes, Santonio PIT WR

4.05 Johnson, Calvin DET WR

5.06 Harrison, Marvin IND WR

6.05 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

7.06 Forte, Matt CHI RB

8.05 Jones, Felix DAL RB

9.06 Clark, Dallas IND TE

10.05 Rice, Ray BAL RB

11.06 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR

12.05 Morgan, Josh SFO WR  

13.06 Miller, Zach OAK TE

14.05 Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def

15.06 Royal, Eddie DEN WR  

16.05 Jackson, Fred BUF RB  

17.06 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB  

18.05 Crosby, Mason GBP PK

I pretty much went into the draft targeting Randy Moss at #6. There’s a certain amount of risk to it because I passed on several viable #1 RBs. But nobody could stop him last year and my thinking is why would it be any different in 2008?

Marshawn Lynch fell further than he should have and I snatched him up. I passed on Braylon Edwards, which took some serious discipline.

I reeeeeeeeeeeeeached for Santonio Holmes. But I don’t care. Man crush.

The 4^th round was where things got interesting. I felt like playing to win, as John Hansen always advises, so I rounded out my starting WR corps with a potential breakout beast in Calvin Johnson. If he stops landing on his back when he leaps for the ball, 12 TDs should be no problem.

After Calvin, the “sameness” started to set in at wide receiver and the RBs weren’t going very fast, so I gambled on another grizzled veteran pass-catcher in Marvin Harrison. I believe he’s healthy. I really do. And I think he’ll make an excellent FLEX this season. Call me gullible…

Big Ben was sitting in my wheelhouse and I didn’t feel like waiting any longer for my starting QB, so I called his name.

In the 7^th, I snapped out of my online draft trance and realized I went a little overboard at WR. Oversight, yes, slightly. But I was drafting in the moment and I wanted to leave the draft with a receiving corps to be reckoned with. Unfortunately, I had to sacrifice at RB with Matt Forte as my #2. That hurt, but at least he’s a natural talent and an every-down back. And I can always work the waiver wire when injuries set in across the league.

I added some RB depth with Felix Jones next because I’m not buying that Marion Barber can hold up for 16 games running like a lunatic. Plus, Jones is silky smooth, in case you haven’t seen him this preseason.

In the 9^th, I saw great value with Dallas Clark. Don’t like him so much since he drops a lot of passes and is an injury risk. But he’ll do.

When we got to the 10^th round, I was feeling really good about my draft (and my explosiveness), so I got aggressive and targeted three rookies I firmly believe will make a very large impact in 2008. I’m talking about Ray Rice, DeSean Jackson, and Josh Morgan. I took them all a few rounds earlier than I should have, but sometimes you have to shirk conventional wisdom to get the guys you want. And I want Rice, Jackson, and Morgan any way I can get them this year.

The rest of the picks were made to fill out my roster depth and simply reflect my personal tastes. Seattle’s a hell of a defense at home. Zach Miller is PPR gold (read the article). Eddie Royal “with cheese” catches passes from a guy with a cannon for an arm. Fred Jackson’s my stud RB handcuff. Aaron Rodgers has some upside for a backup. Mason Crosby actually seemed like a value.

Looking back, I see I’m thin at RB and perilously so if Lynch doesn’t step his game up this year. Yet I gander at my deep and talented wideout stable and think of all the TDs and big plays that can be generated there, which makes me realize I’ll be competitive in this league.

I’d love to hear what you’d have done differently.

Week Three is widely regarded as the most meaningful and telling week of preseason action and rightfully so. Starters play almost the entire game, teams begin game-planning, and coaches solidify their depth charts.

For fantasy, it’s even more important, as we get a clear glimpse at how training camp position battles stand with the regular season looming. I just wanted to let everyone know that it’s probably a good idea to visit NFL.com this weekend after the games and examine the “Game Books” for each game that’s played, which can be found when you access each “Game Center.” These Game Books tell you who’s technically starting, who’s coming off the bench, and who’s inactive. Viewing them is a good way of predicting who will line up with the first team when Week One of the real season arrives.

Many of you are drafting very soon and some teams won’t announce their official depth charts until after you’ve made your selections. So do yourself a favor and sift through the Game Books after this week’s games. It’s a worthwhile exercise that could give you a leg up on the competition.

I’ve seen both preseason games the Raiders and Titans have played thus far and I have an intense fantasy impression that I thought I’d share. Both backfields feature strong, young backs and look like they could go off as units in 2008.

Both Oakland and Tennessee are committed to the running game and they’re both defensively stout, so we should see a lot of carries out of their RBs in a ball-control style of football. With that said, I’m endorsing these two tandems as good buys on draft day, at the right price of course.

LenDale White/Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden/Michael Bush

I know, I know. Justin Fargas is the “starter” at this point. He just hasn’t looked nearly as dynamic as McFadden and Bush this summer. And he’s not a household name for a reason. He’s limited to being pretty much a straight-line runner who relies on his high motor to make plays. McFadden has much better north-south speed and Bush can do what Fargas does and more (make people miss now and then and get to top speed before contact).

White, I bought into last year, as he helped me win a championship. And he actually looks improved this summer, flashing enhanced speed and some of the best vision from a RB I’ve seen this preseason. Johnson has the speed to embarrass defensive fronts.

I’m not saying to go aggressively reach for these RBBCs on draft day. I’m simply predicting they’ll be more productive than most backfields in the NFL in 2008. How you respond is up to you.

It was bound to happen, given the dearth of fine, top-tier talent at the quarterback position around the NFL. But fantasy owners across the nation are starting to panic and pay too much for their starting QB. In fact, it’s gotten to the point where the QB has officially become the new WR in terms of appeal. I’ll admit that I fell into this trap when I did an early expert draft in May and selected Peyton Manning with the #12 pick.

But the more and more I break down the trend of Tom Brady, Manning, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger going higher and higher in drafts and examine the reasoning behind it, it becomes clear that overpaying for your QB for the sake of “stability” is nothing but a sexy idea based on faulty, short-sighted thinking. There are potentially huge rewards to be reaped, of course, but there’s significant downside involved too.

After all, the majority of fantasy leagues require you to start 1 QB each week, whereas you normally need to start anywhere from 4-6 RBs and WRs. Wouldn’t basic logic dictate that ALL of your early picks (which are obviously the most valuable ones) fill the roster spots where you have the greatest number of spots to be filled (RB and WR)?

In my eyes, it’s a no-brainer. Those who wait for their starting QB in 2008 will be rewarded because you’ll have the advantage in terms of studliness and depth at RB and WR. And you’ll certainly be able to find some potential diamonds in the rough at the QB position after you’ve solidified your RB and WR spots. Plus, you won’t have to execute a perfect draft, like the guys who go early for their QB will, in order to find success.

With that in mind, I’ve taken the liberty of concocting a few good-looking QB tandems that you can get on the cheap while others mutter to themselves: “I have to get a top QB. I just have to. I have no choice. I’ll look stupid if I don’t.”

Brett Favre /Aaron Rodgers

Matt Schaub/Matt Hasselbeck

David Garrard/Jake Delhomme

Jay Cutler/Philip Rivers

Donovan McNabb/Jon Kitna

All of the aforementioned guys, aside from Rodgers and Schaub, have air-tight job security and have shown in the past that they can put up useful numbers for fantasy. They may throw in a clunker here and there, but what NFL player doesn’t?

One last point I have to mention to drive my stance home. I finished 11^th overall in Rotobowl last year and guess who I drafted as my QBs? I selected Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman. I’m completely embarrassed to admit it, but it goes to show you that you can win consistently and stay competitive without overpaying for your starting QB.

How do you feel about the newly accepted notion that it’s “the right thing to do” to aggressively go after the top guns at QB, even if it means sacrificing a stud pick at RB or WR?

I know how I feel about. It’s the wrong way to go. What’s your view?

We all want the next best thing when it comes to fantasy football, i.e. rookie stars. And there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s never liberating to select Laveranues Coles and rarely does your spine tingle when you grab Derrick Mason. We like young, promising talents that come out of nowhere and contribute. And I’m convinced that the universal appeal with rooks is that you can get them on the cheap in most drafts.

With that in mind, I thought I’d share some of the first-year players who jumped off the screen while I watched Week One of the preseason. Yes, I actually watched every snap played thus far. To an extent, it’s a waste of time because everything is so vanilla, but I do it to evaluate and get a feel for the players we’ve never seen operate at the NFL level. Away we go……

Felix Jones (RB, Dal) – Jones looked extremely quick and fleet-footed in his debut, as advertised. With Marion Barber ahead of him, his chances figure to be somewhat limited this season. But this guy could be very special in the not so distant future. He reminds me of a young Ahman Green. He’s shifty, but also capable of blowing by people for the home run.

Chris Johnson (RB, Ten) – We read all about his speed this off-season, but we got to see it in HD when he burst through the middle for his first long NFL TD run in Tennessee’s preseason opener. And it was glorious. I’m going to guess we’ll be seeing plenty of big plays from this kid for many years, provided he can take a beating. What great vision he has.

Mike Hart (RB, Ind) – He’s not flashy, but he’s efficient and very tough. He’s a gamer. I like the way he runs with a powerful forward lean. Hart’s got pretty sticky hands too. Being buried behind Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes puts him in a tough spot this year, but if injuries hit the Colt backfield, Hart could be money. He’s off to a very encouraging and productive start to the preseason.

Tim Hightower (RB, Ari) – This rook stood out in my Week One viewing because of his striking similarity in style to Steven Jackson. He’s a quick, violent cutter with a strong lower body. He’s got deceptive speed, too. Edgerrin James is past his prime and Hightower looks ready to take some carries off Edge’s plate.

Jacob Hester (RB, SD) – This guy’s a hard-nosed football player who should make the Charger ground game even better in 2008. Scary thought, huh? In the event of a LaDainian Tomlinson injury, Hester would be the guy I’d prefer over Darren Sproles simply for his TD upside. After all, he easily scored twice in his first NFL action this weekend.

Rashard Mendenhall (RB, Pit) – This first-year player exhibited nice outside speed and superb vision in his first NFL action. Willie Parker’s still the bell-cow in the Steel City, but the team will find a way to use this potential lead back. I believe 50 yards/week won’t be a problem for Mendenhall in 2008 in his complementary role.

Anthony Alridge (RB, Den) – His game is all about speed and he showed plenty of it in his first preseason action, not to mention some impressive pass-catching ability. Based on the perennially fickle nature of Shanahan’s backfields, Alridge has to be a guy you’re familiar with.

DeSean Jackson (WR, Phi) – He’s undersized and he’s facing a tough task in mastering Andy Reid’s complex offense, but Jackson looks like a natural to me. By that I mean, he’s got “it.” Wiggle, zuzu, juice, pizzazz, shimmy, moves. He’s going to become a favorite target of Donovan McNabb in no time. Mark my words.

Josh Morgan (WR, SF) – I watched Morgan closely because I’ve read some good things about him this summer. Frank Gore said recently that Morgan’s going to be a beast in the NFL and I believe him now after seeing his debut. This kid is an Anquan Boldin clone. I won’t be shocked if he’s a sturdy, dynamic possession receiver who Mike Martz relies on in 2008.

Will Franklin (WR, KC) – Brodie Croyle (who stinks IMHO) could easily hold him back this year, but Franklin showed me already that he has no fear, which intrigues me. He made some great catches in traffic in KC’s first preseason game and I’ve been reading all summer about how much the coaching staff and the fans love him. Barring injury, he’ll be the Chiefs’ #2 WR and Dwayne Bowe’s sidekick by the time October rolls around. Nobody else there can be a legit second wideout.

Limas Sweed (WR, Pit) – This guy just oozes confidence and he’s built for the NFL. Big Ben wanted a big weapon and Sweed figures to be that weapon as Pittsburgh’s #3 WR this year. I was pleased with his preseason debut and impressed mostly with his physicality and his sizeable frame. Not many corners will be able to match up body-to-body with this rook, who just happens to have some big, sticky paws to snatch the ball with.

Matt Ryan (QB, Atl) – I don’t want to make waves because Ryan doesn’t have his arm strength. But I thought Matty Ice had some Carson Palmer moments in his preseason debut. He was poised in the pocket, he stood tall, he was confident and composed, he knew where the ball was supposed to go, and most importantly he took control of the offense. He’ll be starting Week One. If not, the Falcons should be removed from the NFL.

Chad Henne (QB, Mia) – Never liked him at Michigan, but he caught my attention in his preseason debut. He made efficient, strong, well-timed throws, exhibited great footwork, and looked the part. Dare I say Henne’s got a little Jay Cutler in him?

Sorry folks, but I wasn’t impressed with Darren McFadden. He’s got an elite pedigree and his first-step quickness is remarkable. But John Hansen is all over this guy. He’s truly like a birthday candle. One blow and he’s out. I watched him carry the ball over the weekend, and as soon as he met contact or resistance, he folded like a cheap tent. Those type of players usually don’t take the speed-driven and hard-hitting NFL by storm. And they certainly don’t deserve to be compared to Adrian Peterson, who can probably run through a brick wall if he tried.

Hope these nuggets help. My eyes don’t usually deceive me, so you can rest assured these are the facts, Jack.

David Garrard, in my eyes, is a fantastic backup fantasy choice in 2008 and a borderline starter because of his strong arm, his mobility, and his mistake-free brand of football. It also helps that he has a superior running game behind him. And honestly, I like the guy. A few of my very close friends went to ECU when he was there and I remember them raving about Garrard, so I’ve had my eye on him for quite some time.

In addition, when I was covering the preseason for the site last August, I proclaimed that Garrard was deserving of the job over complete stiff and fraud Byron Leftwich. It was evident in his play last summer that this guy was ready to take the next step in his NFL career. He took that step in 2008 with a sweet 18-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. And I was proud to have endorsed him as the future for Jacksonville.

With that said, I’m concerned about him right now because things aren’t going well with his supporting cast. It’s still early and we have a long way to go before the real action commences. Yet here are some clearly negative factors to consider with Garrard:

• Jerry Porter, the big-money free-agent addition expected to stretch the field and add explosiveness to the Jag aerial attack, had hamstring surgery and is laid up, maybe even to start the season. Plus, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and he’s never had either a 1,000-yard season or a double-digit-TD campaign.

• Reggie Williams, the stud of the Jag wideout corps in 2007, had a setback with his sprained knee in practice after starting camp on the PUP list and appears to be pretty gimped out at this point. Apparently, the Gimp’s not sleeping.

• Dennis Northcutt, who’s undersized and average to begin with, has a back injury that he’s dealing with.

• Troy Williamson continues to drop passes in practice.

• Mike Walker’s knee continues to slow him down and limit his reps.

• John Broussard is completely unproven.

• Matt Jones still isn’t committed to football (can’t say what I really want to say here).

• And in the sickest twist of irony, the Jags failed to draft a wideout in April.

Soooooooooo, has that killed your buzz yet, Garrard lovers?

It should because Maurice Jones-Drew and Marcedes Lewis can’t carry the Jag passing game. The Jags may bring in a street free agent like Terry Glenn or Koren Robinson, but will that really help? Doubt it.

I’m not saying jump ship on Garrard because he’s a quality player and the aforementioned guys could always turn it around as the season nears. But you better start to temper expectations a bit, as it looks like head coach Jack Del Rio may have no choice but to run the ball 35 times/game in 2008 if things keep trending downward with Jacksonville’s receivers into the dog days of August.

On a side note, I’d like to thank all of our subscribers who’ve been supportive of me in my first year with FantasyGuru.com as well as John and Bill, who’ve been great mentors and friends in my time of transition. I’m looking forward to a great Year Two with the site and with all of you. I love talking fantasy strategy and football with you guys and gals.

Now get studying, it’s fantasy football season!

Great news on the Marvin Harrison front surfaced today. Head coach Tony Dungy pronounced him ready for action, which means he’ll participate in training camp. And provided he doesn’t have any setbacks this summer with his troublesome knees, he shouldn’t have any issues returning to his role as Peyton Manning’s go-to guy in 2008.

I know what you’re thinking. When Marvin was out last year, Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark absolutely took over. So that must mean that trio will pick up where they left off this season and Harrison will be left with the scraps, right? Well, to an extent that’s true because Indy loves the upside of younger guys Wayne and Gonzo. But we’re talking about Marvin Harrison here, one of the NFL’s most prolific receivers of all time and a guy who absolutely commands the ball.

Last season, I passed on Harrison in all of my leagues because I foresaw his downfall in 2007. He was just too consistent since 1999 (double-digits TDs every year) and something told me he was destined for an off-year. Sure enough, he posted 20/247/1, missed 11 regular season games, and, well, you know the rest. Good thing I have that sixth sense like my late sister Rosalie, who was actually a legitimate psychic for a living.

This season, I’m not going to hesitate to snatch Harrison if I can get him in the 4^th round or later because I smell a big-time bounce-back year. Peeps are way down on him and he’s a fantastic value right now in drafts, despite his pretty sizeable injury baggage and risk. So you have to take notice even if you don’t trust him. With Manning throwing him the ball, Joseph Addai keeping defenses honest, and Clark drawing safety attention down the seam, how can Harrison not succeed in 2008?

The answer is it’s almost impossible. The only way he fails this season is if he re-injures one of his knees. And after months of down-time to recover, I don’t envision that happening. If he’s just 85% healthy, #2 WR fantasy production should be no problem for Harrison in 2008.

There’s plenty of room on the Harrison bandwagon if you want to jump on with me. After all, most people want to anoint Gonzalez as the next marvelous receiving option in Indy. Not me, I’ll roll the dice and take my chances with Marvelous Marvin. The value’s just too good to pass up.

Ronnie Brown is coming off ACL surgery and his boy Cam Cameron no longer coordinates the Dolphin offense. Ricky Williams is a strange cat who is on the wrong side of 30 and trying to bounce back from a torn pectoral muscle. But despite all that baggage, this backfield has me intrigued with training camp bearing down on us. Not Brown or Williams individually, per se – the tandem, together, as one unit.

First off, Brown broke out last year in a huge way. He was a beast before he suffered the knee injury, leading the NFL in total yards from scrimmage and notching four consecutive 100-yard rushing games. And for your PPR leaguers, it’s worth noting that he was on pace for 80+ receptions.

Meanwhile, Williams has demonstrated a tremendous work ethic this off-season and he’s healthy. He’s in phenomenal shape, he’s reportedly focused on helping the team, and he’s ready to take whatever part of the load Brown can’t handle.

At this point, we’re not sure exactly how the carries will shake out early in the season, how the young O-line will mesh, and who the QB will be. Yet you can bet your bottom dollar that the Dolphins will be a run-friendly team in 2008. They have no choice, actually. Ted Ginn and Ernest Wilford can’t carry an offense on their unproven shoulders. And no quarterback on their roster has any upside at all.

So I’m going to go out on a limb and speculate that head coach Tony Sparano is going to run Ronnie and Ricky into the ground in 2008. For fantasy, that’s the kind of situation you may want to capitalize on.

I think this will be one of the more productive RBBCs in the NFL this year, of course, assuming Brown doesn’t have any major setbacks in-season. You’ll love what Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew give you and you should enjoy success with Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. But consider the value you could get with Ronnie and Ricky. Many will be scared off by Brown’s surgically repaired ACL and Williams’ past transgressions. You shouldn’t be when the price is right.

I really don’t care for all the Brett Favre hoopla that’s been circulating since he predictably admitted that he’s still got the “itch” to play. My feeling is that the guy has accomplished all he possibly can and solidified himself as one of the greatest gunslingers to ever fire the pigskin. So why linger like a bad rash and flip-flop like a wannabe politician? Why make your own legacy so awkward and uncomfortable when it should be shiny and brilliant? And finally, why toy with the feelings of rabid Packer fans?

This whole Favre story makes me fume internally because of the unenviable position it puts the Packers in, one season after they nearly made the Super Bowl. If they take him back and hand him the starting job, they’ll be vilified for not giving Aaron Rodgers his much-deserved chance in 2008. If they trade or release him and he catches on with another NFC team, Green Bay might have to face him in a make-or-break game, possibly even in the postseason. Plus, team brass would be relentlessly attacked for turning their backs on the guy who gave Packer fans so many fond memories over the last 15+ years.

With all that said and off my chest, I’d like to see the Packers close the door on the Favre era for good and deal with whatever ramifications arise. If he makes them pay on the field, so be it. If the public backlash is huge, ignore it. If Rodgers falls flat on his face, deal with it. But they shouldn’t even entertain thoughts of welcoming him back with open arms because of the sheer egotism he’s shown by teetering on the brink of retirement for the last three off-seasons.

Although he thinks he is, Favre is not a savior. And he has absolutely no right to put himself above the concept of a team. The last time I checked, 53 men suit up on Sundays for the Packers. Not just one.