There are 15 that I see that are standing out:

Quarterback

Trent Edwards vs. San Diego - There figures to be a decent amount of points in this game and Edwards could be throwing more than expected against an average Charger secondary.

Kyle Orton vs. Minnesota - He’s on a roll and the Viking secondary is beatable.

Jake Delhomme vs. New Orleans - This should be a high-scoring game so Dehomme figures to throw for at least two TDs/250 yards.

Running Back

Mewelde Moore at Cincinnati - He should get plenty of touches to prove to be a solid #3 RB.

LenDale White at Kansas City - This figures to be a blowout so White should get plenty of carries.

Jonathan Stewart vs. New Orleans - They’ll try to establish the run early so the powerful Stewart figures to have a decent chance to put up numbers in what should be a high-scoring game.

Wide Receiver

Malcom Floyd at Buffalo - You saw what he did last week and he’ll get a chance to do it against a Bill secondary who will be without their best CB.

Devin Hester vs. Minnesota - He’s on a miniroll and he’ll get matched up with struggling CB Cedric Griffin some today.

Muhsin Muhammad vs. New Orleans - While the Saints are concerned with Steve Smith, Muhammad will get plenty of one-on-one matchups which he’ll win.

Kevin Walter vs. Detroit - This Ed McCaffrey clone figures to get it done against a bad secondary.

Antwaan Randle El vs. Cleveland - He figures to get it done against a weak secondary.

Tight End

Heath Miller at Cincinnati - He’s overdue to score and that could happen against an average Bengal secondary.

Bo Scaife at Kansas City - The Titan starting WRs are banged up so Scaife could do well against a weak Chief secondary.

Defense

Miami vs. Baltimore - Joe Flacco is struggling and so is the injured Raven OL.

Houston vs. Detroit - Talk about a one-week starter. They’ll face an offense which can’t run or pass the ball well. And the Lion offensive line is struggling.

Kyle Orton at Atlanta - That’s two good weeks in a row and he faces a shaky secondary this week.

Anthony Gonzalez vs. Baltimore - He practiced all week so he should play. If he can go, that’s significant since the Ravens will be using one of their dime CBs as a starter and the other one will be on Gonzalez.

Hopefully I’ll have similar success like I’ve had in previous week with these reaches:
 
Quarterback
 
Jon Kitna - As long as you don’t lose more than a point for INTs, Kitna could do well against the overrated Bear secondary. 
 
Matt Schaub - You can say he’s a reach since he was selected late in drafts. But we expect him to have much success against a suspect Colt defense.
 
Gus Frerotte - He faces a very shaky secondary and plays are there to be made in the passing game.
 
Running Back
 
Tim Hightower - He scores every week so why not against an average run defense. 
 
 Wide Receiver
 
Devin Hester - With Brandon Lloyd out, someone has to make a play or two against the weak Lion secondary. 
 
Reggie Brown - If Shawn Springs is inactive, Brown will wind up getting a good matchup so he could do surprisingly well.
 
Kevin Walter - Not sure if he’s even a reach anymore but he faces a beatable secondary with out Bob Sanders and we’re expecting a lot of points to be scored in this game.
 
Anthony Gonzalez - The Texan secondary is the worst in the NFL from a personnel standpoint. 
 
Lance Moore - We’ll go to the well one more time this week as he faces a shaky Viking secondary. 
 
Josh Reed - He faces a weak Cardinal secondary and there should be a decent amount of points scored in this game.
 
Steve Breaston - No Terrence McGee is big so the Bills don’t have a good cover CB left on their roster. And you know the Cardinals will be throwing a lot since their defense will not stop the Bill offense.
 
Bernard Berrian - Assuming he’s playing, they’ll look to get him the ball down field a few times against the suspect Saint secondary.
 
Defense
 
Carolina - Kansas City probably will have trouble moving the ball.
 
Buffalo - Kurt Warner will put up yards but he’ll likely also turn the ball over some.

The Rotobowl is pure challenge. Regardless of where you draft, it’s extremely tough to get a balanced stable of studs because you’re picking against a group of knowledgeable people who aren’t afraid to get “their guys.” I was given the #10 overall selection, so I threw caution to the wind, ruled out Brady and the lower-end #1 RBs, and made it a point to focus on assembling an intimidating receiving corps. I achieved that, I added a heck of a QB platoon, I landed a legit TE, and I got the two defenses I coveted. My RB situation is paper thin, as has been the case in most of my drafts this summer since the position this year officially scares the daylights out of me and features so many question marks. But you can’t have it all in the Rotobowl. Here’s my squad.

Terrell Owens – Passed on Brady and some lower-end #1 RBs for him, but I think Romo’s going to make him unstoppable again this year. And 3 TDs in Week One against the Browns should get his season started with a bang.

Maurice Jones-Drew – Having him as my #1 is upsetting. Still, I locked down Freddy later, so the Jag backfield is all mine. I’ll take that.

Calvin Johnson – Play-to-win pick in a WR-heavy format. This guy makes Roy Williams look tiny when he’s standing next to him and I believe he’ll have the type of year Braylon Edwards had in 2007.

Santonio Holmes – Big Ben loves him, Hines Ward isn’t getting any younger, and I love the fact that he spent the off-season fine-tuning his craft. This guy wants to be elite and he’s showing it with his actions.

Tony Gonzalez – Could have gone a million different directions with this pick. I settled on Gonzo for his reception capabilities. It is a PPR league, after all. Plus, some dude took Kellen Winslow waaaaaaaaay out of line and threw the TE run completely out of whack. If I passed on Gonzo, I would have wound up with some hit-or-miss guy as my #1. No thanks.

Chris Johnson – Caplan, Hansen, and I all were thinking alike in the AC Convention Center, as we all drafted this physical speedster. Johnson will be the ROY.

Jay Cutler – I wanted him all summer and in every league he was snatched from my grasp just a few picks in front of me. I had to get a piece of Cutler in 2008, as he’s ready to fully blossom.

Fred Taylor – Man, I couldn’t believe my competition let him fall into my lap. He gives me peace of mind with MJD and some weeks I’ll be able to use him with Jones-Drew for double the pleasure. The Jags love to run, keep in mind.

Derrick Mason – PPR gold if you ask me. And when I called his name the entire draft table sighed. Guess that’s what you call a value.

Dallas Cowboys – Defenses can really carry you in this format, believe it or not. I think this unit will hit the QB a ton and pick off a lot of passes. And their TD total could be gaudy.

Kurt Warner – Paired with Cutler, I shouldn’t have to worry about my QB position all season. I can play the matchups and rest easy knowing the yardage and TDs will be there.

L.J. Smith – Homer pick. I bleed green. Still, he’ll be needed with Philly’s WR corps looking thin and he was missed last year in the red zone. Oh yea, and he’s a franchise player looking to get out. That bodes well for a big L.J. year.

Seattle Seahawks – Nobody was aggressive in targeting their defense, so I felt like making people pay for waiting. That’s just the killer instinct in me. At this point, it was reach city anyway and people were calling some questionable names.

Sammy Morris – I needed someone I could plug in at RB in a pinch, so I went with a guy who’s tied to a sick offense.

Lorenzo Booker – Westbrook’s owner inexplicably slept on him and I actually believe this guy could catch 50 balls this season.

Randy McMichael – Super sleeper. Al Saunders should get the most out of him. He was dangerous not too long ago with Miami, too.

Jason Hill – I’m feeling Hill as the Shaun McDonald of the Niner offense this year. It’s just a hunch, so he may be dropped before too long.

Adam Vinatieri – The Colts are Bowl bound and the points will be plentiful this year.

Andre Davis – Total trash left, so I invested in a guy that could explode if Andre Johnson continues to be Mr. Softee.

Michael Jenkins – Should be the possession guy for Matt Ryan, at least early in the season. And Ryan’s not bad, folks.

Week One Lineup

Kurt Warner

Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson

Terrell Owens, Calvin Johnson, Santonio Holmes, Derrick Mason

Tony Gonzalez, L.J. Smith

Adam Vinatieri

Dallas Cowboys

I drafted in a 10-team expert league this past week, but I didn’t get a chance to share my results, as we’ve been knee-deep in preseason analysis and developments at Guru Headquarters. Since I just did a write-up on my personal 10-team plan of attack, I thought you might be interested to see how I put it to use. I was handed the #6 draft spot in what is a PPR format.

The roster requirements: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1FLEX, 1TE, 1PK, 1DEF

The results:

1.06 Moss, Randy NEP WR

2.05 Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

3.06 Holmes, Santonio PIT WR

4.05 Johnson, Calvin DET WR

5.06 Harrison, Marvin IND WR

6.05 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

7.06 Forte, Matt CHI RB

8.05 Jones, Felix DAL RB

9.06 Clark, Dallas IND TE

10.05 Rice, Ray BAL RB

11.06 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR

12.05 Morgan, Josh SFO WR  

13.06 Miller, Zach OAK TE

14.05 Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def

15.06 Royal, Eddie DEN WR  

16.05 Jackson, Fred BUF RB  

17.06 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB  

18.05 Crosby, Mason GBP PK

I pretty much went into the draft targeting Randy Moss at #6. There’s a certain amount of risk to it because I passed on several viable #1 RBs. But nobody could stop him last year and my thinking is why would it be any different in 2008?

Marshawn Lynch fell further than he should have and I snatched him up. I passed on Braylon Edwards, which took some serious discipline.

I reeeeeeeeeeeeeached for Santonio Holmes. But I don’t care. Man crush.

The 4^th round was where things got interesting. I felt like playing to win, as John Hansen always advises, so I rounded out my starting WR corps with a potential breakout beast in Calvin Johnson. If he stops landing on his back when he leaps for the ball, 12 TDs should be no problem.

After Calvin, the “sameness” started to set in at wide receiver and the RBs weren’t going very fast, so I gambled on another grizzled veteran pass-catcher in Marvin Harrison. I believe he’s healthy. I really do. And I think he’ll make an excellent FLEX this season. Call me gullible…

Big Ben was sitting in my wheelhouse and I didn’t feel like waiting any longer for my starting QB, so I called his name.

In the 7^th, I snapped out of my online draft trance and realized I went a little overboard at WR. Oversight, yes, slightly. But I was drafting in the moment and I wanted to leave the draft with a receiving corps to be reckoned with. Unfortunately, I had to sacrifice at RB with Matt Forte as my #2. That hurt, but at least he’s a natural talent and an every-down back. And I can always work the waiver wire when injuries set in across the league.

I added some RB depth with Felix Jones next because I’m not buying that Marion Barber can hold up for 16 games running like a lunatic. Plus, Jones is silky smooth, in case you haven’t seen him this preseason.

In the 9^th, I saw great value with Dallas Clark. Don’t like him so much since he drops a lot of passes and is an injury risk. But he’ll do.

When we got to the 10^th round, I was feeling really good about my draft (and my explosiveness), so I got aggressive and targeted three rookies I firmly believe will make a very large impact in 2008. I’m talking about Ray Rice, DeSean Jackson, and Josh Morgan. I took them all a few rounds earlier than I should have, but sometimes you have to shirk conventional wisdom to get the guys you want. And I want Rice, Jackson, and Morgan any way I can get them this year.

The rest of the picks were made to fill out my roster depth and simply reflect my personal tastes. Seattle’s a hell of a defense at home. Zach Miller is PPR gold (read the article). Eddie Royal “with cheese” catches passes from a guy with a cannon for an arm. Fred Jackson’s my stud RB handcuff. Aaron Rodgers has some upside for a backup. Mason Crosby actually seemed like a value.

Looking back, I see I’m thin at RB and perilously so if Lynch doesn’t step his game up this year. Yet I gander at my deep and talented wideout stable and think of all the TDs and big plays that can be generated there, which makes me realize I’ll be competitive in this league.

I’d love to hear what you’d have done differently.

Week Three is widely regarded as the most meaningful and telling week of preseason action and rightfully so. Starters play almost the entire game, teams begin game-planning, and coaches solidify their depth charts.

For fantasy, it’s even more important, as we get a clear glimpse at how training camp position battles stand with the regular season looming. I just wanted to let everyone know that it’s probably a good idea to visit NFL.com this weekend after the games and examine the “Game Books” for each game that’s played, which can be found when you access each “Game Center.” These Game Books tell you who’s technically starting, who’s coming off the bench, and who’s inactive. Viewing them is a good way of predicting who will line up with the first team when Week One of the real season arrives.

Many of you are drafting very soon and some teams won’t announce their official depth charts until after you’ve made your selections. So do yourself a favor and sift through the Game Books after this week’s games. It’s a worthwhile exercise that could give you a leg up on the competition.

I’ve seen both preseason games the Raiders and Titans have played thus far and I have an intense fantasy impression that I thought I’d share. Both backfields feature strong, young backs and look like they could go off as units in 2008.

Both Oakland and Tennessee are committed to the running game and they’re both defensively stout, so we should see a lot of carries out of their RBs in a ball-control style of football. With that said, I’m endorsing these two tandems as good buys on draft day, at the right price of course.

LenDale White/Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden/Michael Bush

I know, I know. Justin Fargas is the “starter” at this point. He just hasn’t looked nearly as dynamic as McFadden and Bush this summer. And he’s not a household name for a reason. He’s limited to being pretty much a straight-line runner who relies on his high motor to make plays. McFadden has much better north-south speed and Bush can do what Fargas does and more (make people miss now and then and get to top speed before contact).

White, I bought into last year, as he helped me win a championship. And he actually looks improved this summer, flashing enhanced speed and some of the best vision from a RB I’ve seen this preseason. Johnson has the speed to embarrass defensive fronts.

I’m not saying to go aggressively reach for these RBBCs on draft day. I’m simply predicting they’ll be more productive than most backfields in the NFL in 2008. How you respond is up to you.

It was bound to happen, given the dearth of fine, top-tier talent at the quarterback position around the NFL. But fantasy owners across the nation are starting to panic and pay too much for their starting QB. In fact, it’s gotten to the point where the QB has officially become the new WR in terms of appeal. I’ll admit that I fell into this trap when I did an early expert draft in May and selected Peyton Manning with the #12 pick.

But the more and more I break down the trend of Tom Brady, Manning, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger going higher and higher in drafts and examine the reasoning behind it, it becomes clear that overpaying for your QB for the sake of “stability” is nothing but a sexy idea based on faulty, short-sighted thinking. There are potentially huge rewards to be reaped, of course, but there’s significant downside involved too.

After all, the majority of fantasy leagues require you to start 1 QB each week, whereas you normally need to start anywhere from 4-6 RBs and WRs. Wouldn’t basic logic dictate that ALL of your early picks (which are obviously the most valuable ones) fill the roster spots where you have the greatest number of spots to be filled (RB and WR)?

In my eyes, it’s a no-brainer. Those who wait for their starting QB in 2008 will be rewarded because you’ll have the advantage in terms of studliness and depth at RB and WR. And you’ll certainly be able to find some potential diamonds in the rough at the QB position after you’ve solidified your RB and WR spots. Plus, you won’t have to execute a perfect draft, like the guys who go early for their QB will, in order to find success.

With that in mind, I’ve taken the liberty of concocting a few good-looking QB tandems that you can get on the cheap while others mutter to themselves: “I have to get a top QB. I just have to. I have no choice. I’ll look stupid if I don’t.”

Brett Favre /Aaron Rodgers

Matt Schaub/Matt Hasselbeck

David Garrard/Jake Delhomme

Jay Cutler/Philip Rivers

Donovan McNabb/Jon Kitna

All of the aforementioned guys, aside from Rodgers and Schaub, have air-tight job security and have shown in the past that they can put up useful numbers for fantasy. They may throw in a clunker here and there, but what NFL player doesn’t?

One last point I have to mention to drive my stance home. I finished 11^th overall in Rotobowl last year and guess who I drafted as my QBs? I selected Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman. I’m completely embarrassed to admit it, but it goes to show you that you can win consistently and stay competitive without overpaying for your starting QB.

How do you feel about the newly accepted notion that it’s “the right thing to do” to aggressively go after the top guns at QB, even if it means sacrificing a stud pick at RB or WR?

I know how I feel about. It’s the wrong way to go. What’s your view?

We all want the next best thing when it comes to fantasy football, i.e. rookie stars. And there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s never liberating to select Laveranues Coles and rarely does your spine tingle when you grab Derrick Mason. We like young, promising talents that come out of nowhere and contribute. And I’m convinced that the universal appeal with rooks is that you can get them on the cheap in most drafts.

With that in mind, I thought I’d share some of the first-year players who jumped off the screen while I watched Week One of the preseason. Yes, I actually watched every snap played thus far. To an extent, it’s a waste of time because everything is so vanilla, but I do it to evaluate and get a feel for the players we’ve never seen operate at the NFL level. Away we go……

Felix Jones (RB, Dal) – Jones looked extremely quick and fleet-footed in his debut, as advertised. With Marion Barber ahead of him, his chances figure to be somewhat limited this season. But this guy could be very special in the not so distant future. He reminds me of a young Ahman Green. He’s shifty, but also capable of blowing by people for the home run.

Chris Johnson (RB, Ten) – We read all about his speed this off-season, but we got to see it in HD when he burst through the middle for his first long NFL TD run in Tennessee’s preseason opener. And it was glorious. I’m going to guess we’ll be seeing plenty of big plays from this kid for many years, provided he can take a beating. What great vision he has.

Mike Hart (RB, Ind) – He’s not flashy, but he’s efficient and very tough. He’s a gamer. I like the way he runs with a powerful forward lean. Hart’s got pretty sticky hands too. Being buried behind Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes puts him in a tough spot this year, but if injuries hit the Colt backfield, Hart could be money. He’s off to a very encouraging and productive start to the preseason.

Tim Hightower (RB, Ari) – This rook stood out in my Week One viewing because of his striking similarity in style to Steven Jackson. He’s a quick, violent cutter with a strong lower body. He’s got deceptive speed, too. Edgerrin James is past his prime and Hightower looks ready to take some carries off Edge’s plate.

Jacob Hester (RB, SD) – This guy’s a hard-nosed football player who should make the Charger ground game even better in 2008. Scary thought, huh? In the event of a LaDainian Tomlinson injury, Hester would be the guy I’d prefer over Darren Sproles simply for his TD upside. After all, he easily scored twice in his first NFL action this weekend.

Rashard Mendenhall (RB, Pit) – This first-year player exhibited nice outside speed and superb vision in his first NFL action. Willie Parker’s still the bell-cow in the Steel City, but the team will find a way to use this potential lead back. I believe 50 yards/week won’t be a problem for Mendenhall in 2008 in his complementary role.

Anthony Alridge (RB, Den) – His game is all about speed and he showed plenty of it in his first preseason action, not to mention some impressive pass-catching ability. Based on the perennially fickle nature of Shanahan’s backfields, Alridge has to be a guy you’re familiar with.

DeSean Jackson (WR, Phi) – He’s undersized and he’s facing a tough task in mastering Andy Reid’s complex offense, but Jackson looks like a natural to me. By that I mean, he’s got “it.” Wiggle, zuzu, juice, pizzazz, shimmy, moves. He’s going to become a favorite target of Donovan McNabb in no time. Mark my words.

Josh Morgan (WR, SF) – I watched Morgan closely because I’ve read some good things about him this summer. Frank Gore said recently that Morgan’s going to be a beast in the NFL and I believe him now after seeing his debut. This kid is an Anquan Boldin clone. I won’t be shocked if he’s a sturdy, dynamic possession receiver who Mike Martz relies on in 2008.

Will Franklin (WR, KC) – Brodie Croyle (who stinks IMHO) could easily hold him back this year, but Franklin showed me already that he has no fear, which intrigues me. He made some great catches in traffic in KC’s first preseason game and I’ve been reading all summer about how much the coaching staff and the fans love him. Barring injury, he’ll be the Chiefs’ #2 WR and Dwayne Bowe’s sidekick by the time October rolls around. Nobody else there can be a legit second wideout.

Limas Sweed (WR, Pit) – This guy just oozes confidence and he’s built for the NFL. Big Ben wanted a big weapon and Sweed figures to be that weapon as Pittsburgh’s #3 WR this year. I was pleased with his preseason debut and impressed mostly with his physicality and his sizeable frame. Not many corners will be able to match up body-to-body with this rook, who just happens to have some big, sticky paws to snatch the ball with.

Matt Ryan (QB, Atl) – I don’t want to make waves because Ryan doesn’t have his arm strength. But I thought Matty Ice had some Carson Palmer moments in his preseason debut. He was poised in the pocket, he stood tall, he was confident and composed, he knew where the ball was supposed to go, and most importantly he took control of the offense. He’ll be starting Week One. If not, the Falcons should be removed from the NFL.

Chad Henne (QB, Mia) – Never liked him at Michigan, but he caught my attention in his preseason debut. He made efficient, strong, well-timed throws, exhibited great footwork, and looked the part. Dare I say Henne’s got a little Jay Cutler in him?

Sorry folks, but I wasn’t impressed with Darren McFadden. He’s got an elite pedigree and his first-step quickness is remarkable. But John Hansen is all over this guy. He’s truly like a birthday candle. One blow and he’s out. I watched him carry the ball over the weekend, and as soon as he met contact or resistance, he folded like a cheap tent. Those type of players usually don’t take the speed-driven and hard-hitting NFL by storm. And they certainly don’t deserve to be compared to Adrian Peterson, who can probably run through a brick wall if he tried.

Hope these nuggets help. My eyes don’t usually deceive me, so you can rest assured these are the facts, Jack.

David Garrard, in my eyes, is a fantastic backup fantasy choice in 2008 and a borderline starter because of his strong arm, his mobility, and his mistake-free brand of football. It also helps that he has a superior running game behind him. And honestly, I like the guy. A few of my very close friends went to ECU when he was there and I remember them raving about Garrard, so I’ve had my eye on him for quite some time.

In addition, when I was covering the preseason for the site last August, I proclaimed that Garrard was deserving of the job over complete stiff and fraud Byron Leftwich. It was evident in his play last summer that this guy was ready to take the next step in his NFL career. He took that step in 2008 with a sweet 18-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. And I was proud to have endorsed him as the future for Jacksonville.

With that said, I’m concerned about him right now because things aren’t going well with his supporting cast. It’s still early and we have a long way to go before the real action commences. Yet here are some clearly negative factors to consider with Garrard:

• Jerry Porter, the big-money free-agent addition expected to stretch the field and add explosiveness to the Jag aerial attack, had hamstring surgery and is laid up, maybe even to start the season. Plus, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and he’s never had either a 1,000-yard season or a double-digit-TD campaign.

• Reggie Williams, the stud of the Jag wideout corps in 2007, had a setback with his sprained knee in practice after starting camp on the PUP list and appears to be pretty gimped out at this point. Apparently, the Gimp’s not sleeping.

• Dennis Northcutt, who’s undersized and average to begin with, has a back injury that he’s dealing with.

• Troy Williamson continues to drop passes in practice.

• Mike Walker’s knee continues to slow him down and limit his reps.

• John Broussard is completely unproven.

• Matt Jones still isn’t committed to football (can’t say what I really want to say here).

• And in the sickest twist of irony, the Jags failed to draft a wideout in April.

Soooooooooo, has that killed your buzz yet, Garrard lovers?

It should because Maurice Jones-Drew and Marcedes Lewis can’t carry the Jag passing game. The Jags may bring in a street free agent like Terry Glenn or Koren Robinson, but will that really help? Doubt it.

I’m not saying jump ship on Garrard because he’s a quality player and the aforementioned guys could always turn it around as the season nears. But you better start to temper expectations a bit, as it looks like head coach Jack Del Rio may have no choice but to run the ball 35 times/game in 2008 if things keep trending downward with Jacksonville’s receivers into the dog days of August.

On a side note, I’d like to thank all of our subscribers who’ve been supportive of me in my first year with FantasyGuru.com as well as John and Bill, who’ve been great mentors and friends in my time of transition. I’m looking forward to a great Year Two with the site and with all of you. I love talking fantasy strategy and football with you guys and gals.

Now get studying, it’s fantasy football season!