I am in eight leagues right now and in exactly half of them, Carlos Quentin was on the free agency list. Early in the season, I understood that he wasn’t owned, because Jermaine Dye and Nick Swisher were everyday OFs and Jim Thome was the full time DH, which left only one job open, assumed to be for Jerry Owens when he returned from injury. Carlos Quentin had something to say about that, and he now is hitting just about .300 and he is tied for the AL lead in HRs with seven, which has relegated Owens to AAA.

The big question is how long will Quentin keep hitting? I’m sure he is owned in some leagues simply because he is hot and an owner is hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. I prefer to look to his previous body of work to make a more intelligent choice as to his chances.

The first area we will look at will be the power: Quentin played in Arizona two years ago and had over 150 ABs which resulted in 9 HRs, which was a HR about every 18 ABs, which is not bad for a younger player. In 2005, he was in AAA and he had a HR every 21 ABs, but in 2004 in A ball, he had a HR every 16 ABs. The power does not appear to be flukish.

We also have to look at his overall hitting as well, since he is hitting almost .300. Batting averages can be a tricky thing in the minors, so I prefer to look at a hitter’s discipline level of BB:K ratio. Right now, Quentin has 14 BB to 15 Ks, which is on par with his three minor league seasons where he was a tick under a 1:1 ratio. That leads me to believe that he will do quite well as a hitter in his major league career.

I am prepared to say that Quentin can continue the hitting level that he has had in April, so if he is a free agent, I would add him immediately. If you can pluck him in a trade without giving up much, that would be a good move as well.

Cliff Lee now has 4 starts that have produced the following results:

4 wins

0.28 ERA

30 Ks

Before we annoint him as a breakout candidate, let’s take a look at some of his career stats to see if he is a prefect ’sell high’ player or a player that you need to get at all costs. 2007- 5-8, 6.29 ERA

2006- 14-11, 4.40

2005- 18-5, 3.79

This post is to lay out information, so you can make your own determination.

First, it must be noted that Lee is 30 years old. This helps to to know that he is not a young pitcher in the learning curve of a career.

Lee’s four wins have come against the Athletics (twice), the Twins, and the Royals. There is not a better schedule that he could have hoped for, and he has taken full advantage of this opportunity. Also, he has pitched all of his games in pitcher-friendly parks.

To Lee’s credit, he has dominated a team twice (the A’s), which points to the fact that adjustments were likely made, but to no avail to the hitters.

Although Lee had shown a three-year regression in his statline, it can be pointed out that three short years ago (2005), he was a stud with the 18-5, 3.79 ERA.

In 2006, his 14-11, 4.40 season could have either been a regression, or just dropoff from a career year.

Last year was an injury plagued season and can be easily dismissed if you believe that his numbers were due to his injuries.

This should give you a reference point to decide how you feel about Cliff Lee. Now, I will give my opinion:

Lee has been an excellent pitcher two of the last three years, so the fact that he is doing well is no surprise. He will face plenty of teams with loaded lineups that will hammer him on occasion. All things considered, I see Cliff Lee finishing about 16-10 with a 3.90 ERA, which is an excellent #2 SP.

Runs and RBIs are two of the vital offensive categories and when a MLB team scores a lot of runs, you can count on hits and/or HRs to be a beneficiary. Today we will take a look at six teams and their early-season run production so you can apply it to shaping your fantasy franchise.

1) Arizona Diamondbacks: They lead the league in runs scored at over 6 per game. Since they play half of their games in an extreme hitter’s park, the good times should roll all summer. Getting D-Backs on your roster is an excellent idea. They won’t likely lead the league as they are now, but this emerging offense should finish in the top 8.

2) Chicago Cubs: Last year, the Cubs had offensive talent, but couldn’t get timely hitting to score big runs. This year, things look much better, especially with Kosuke Fukudome added to the mix. Also, don’t forget that Alfonso Soriano will be back soon and might help this offense be a juggernaut. Wrigley is an excellent hitter’s park and plays very well in the summer months. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs led the league in scoring this year, and with their pitching, they might need to!

3) Chicago White Sox: The Sox come in at #5 in scoring and play in a great hitter’s park as well. They are doing this well with the middle of their lineup slumping. When they wake up, they Sox might move to the top three in runs scored this year. A healthy Joe Crede, a resurgent AJ Pierzynski, and breakout candidate Carlos Quentin should help this offense flourish in 2008.

The other end of the spectrum gives us the teams that have been disappointing so far:

1) Cleveland Indians: The Tribe is #25 in runs scored and they play in a pretty unfriendly hitter’s park. Travis Hafner looks like a hitter on the decline and their lineup may be vastly overrated. They certainly may turn things around, but I’m getting really bad vibes about the Indians.

2) Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are #23 in runs scored and their offense looks like it’s running in concrete. Certainly Adam Dunn will heat up, but the team looks to lack offensive continuity. Of course they play in a hitter’s park and the weather will be warming up, which could change things quite a bit. I see this offense ending up in the middle of the pack, but not much better, in run scoring this season.

3) Colorado Rockies: The Rox are #24 in runs scored, but regardless of the humidor factor, Coors Field is still the best place for hitters to pile up numbers. Warm weather and a good homestand or two will vault the Rox into the top third of the league in scoring, where they should be for the rest of the year.

Far too often players are written off, but none more than SPs that are in their 20’s and have a bad start to their careers. The hype machine causes us to expect great things immediately and then when it does not go as planned, player value plummets until the player resurfaces. Here are a few pitchers that once had good value, but can be found on many waiver wires and may well be strong pitchers on your staff this year:

Zack Greinke (KC). He had an amazing start to the 2007 season, and it looks like he’s at it again after three starts, boasting 3 wins, a 0.75 ERA, and a 0.92 WHIP.

Scott Olsen (Fla). So far, he has 2wins, a 3.05 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP. Olsen looked good in 2006 for awhile, but was awful in 2007. He has great stuff, so he may merit a pickup.

Ervin Santana (LAA). Of the three pitchers in this post, he has the best chance to amass a high number of wins. So far, he has 2 wins, a 3.32 ERA, and a 1.21 WHIP.

Again, I am not saying that these pitchers have broken out, but I certainly am saying that they might be finally turning the corner in their career progression. If you have some roster space, each are worthy gambles.

In junior high, I remember learning that the mean was simply the mathematical average. In the world of fantasy baseball, the mean is the concept that should allow you to sleep easy at night when David Ortiz is on your team and hitting well under .100. If Ortiz hits .300 for the season, you should be getting a .330 hitter from May through September.

Unless a player is going into serious decline or is in the infancy of a career, you can generally assume that most players will catch up to their career norms after a slow start. By the same token, a player that is absoulutely on fire for the first month will see a market correction over the course of a season.

Panic is often the emotion that many fantasy players demonstrate when their players are crawling out of the gate. Here is what I suggest for fantasy owners:

1) If your players are slumping, try to get a bench player to step in for the short term, then as soon as your player starts to heat up, get him right back in the lineup and let the good times roll!

2) If your opponents have slumping players, try to make a reasonable trade offer that might make them consider making such a deal. I urge you not to make a ridiculous offer so you do not raise emotions amongst owners that will make them ignore any future offers you might make.

3) Keep reminding yourself that every slump turns into a hot streak, so stay the course!

On some of my teams I have David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, and Erik Bedard. I am not worried about any of them and I know that they will be team leaders as the season moves on.