Here’s the next round of random thoughts, this time on running backs:

Felix Jones/Dallas Cowboys – Did you realize he had a 8.9 per average on his 30 carries before he got hurt. I know that’s a limited amount of work, but watching him last season it was easy to see how special he was in space. I’d get this guy in rounds 7-8 and he could actually win you some games. He’s one of those rare backs that doesn’t need a lot of carries to do serious damage.

Clinton Portis/Washington Redskins – Most of you probably don’t realize just how good he was during the first half of last season before he suffered a spate of nagging injuries. In his first eight games, Portis posted 944 yards on the ground with 7 TDs, including five straight games of over 100 yards. After that, he was completely worn down and had just one good game the rest of the way. Remarkably, he turns just 28 in September. The Redskins are still a power rushing team on offense and look for Portis to be pretty solid again.

Michael Turner/Atlanta Falcons – Some fantasy owners are wondering if he’ll repeat his success this season. He [...]

I’ll be posting random thoughts by position leading up to the start of training camps in late July:
 
 Quarterback
 
 Aaron Rodgers/Green Bay Packers – Did you realize he threw for 28 TDs and totaled 32 TDs (4 rushing TDs) last season? Think about it. He did most of that on a bad right shoulder. Amazing. And all his receivers are back for 2009. Can you think of any reason why he won’t be solid again? Dynasty league owners should know he only turns 26 in December.
 
 Philip Rivers/San Diego Chargers – He averaged 19.5 completions/game, yet he threw for 34 TDs. Another way to look at it is, every 9.1 throws resulted in a TD. Talk about efficiency. He did that last season with Chris Chambers being hurt most of the way and with a weak running game. Rivers seems to be actually pretty safe these days, never thought I’d say that.
 
 Matt Schaub/Houston Texans – While he clearly has as much talent around him as any other QB in the NFL, I still don’t trust that he’ll wind up staying healthy for a full season. He has poor pocket awareness and that results in sacks and injuries. Draft him as your backup.
 
 Carson Palmer/Cincinnati [...]

by Adam Caplan

If you read my blog posts last year, I periodically posted sleepers/breakout/undervalued players throughout the season. Here’s my initial list of breakout/undervalued players for 2009 which I’ll update again as we get closer to the opening of training camps.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan/Atlanta Falcons – After posting a decent 17 TD passes as a rookie, the second-year pro will now have the best tight in the NFL to throw to this season. Lets face it, the missing factor for this offense was at the tight end position. Now with Tony Gonzalez in the fold, it will be very hard for defenses to key on any one facet of Atlanta’s offense. Ryan should be a pretty good value for fantasy owners in the middle rounds and you can get him as your starter there.

Running Back

Pierre Thomas/New Orleans Saints – Thomas was a big surprise for the Saints last season considering his role wasn’t clearly defined coming into the season. However, once veteran RB Deuce McAllister’s role was reduced and Reggie Bush started struggling with knee problems, Thomas saw an increased role. While handling just under 9 carries/game, he posted a very solid 4.8 yards per carry average to go along with a [...]

I’ll update this list as the weeks/months go by, but here’s an early look at some random players (not ranked in any particular order) to keep an eye on for next year and beyond in keeper/dynasty leagues that are still under the radar. Check the recently updated keeper rankings for a complete list of players.

Quarterback

Kevin Kolb/Philadelphia – The bottom line is Donovan McNabb turns 32 next year and is on the books for $10 million in 2009 so the team has a big decision to make. Do they pay McNabb that money or hand Kolb the job. The team is very high on Kolb and his contract ends after the 2010 season so they have to get him in there sooner rather than later.

Luke McCown/Tampa Bay – For dynasty league owners, the team likes him to a certain degree and he has a decent arm and he’s kind of a gunslinger. So if you’re looking for a developmental QB for your team that might start down the road, here’s a long-shot that just might pay off.

Running Back

Rashard Mendenhall/Pittsburgh – He really didn’t do anything of note before he was lost for the season. The team drafted him to eventually be their main ball carrier so that [...]

15 reaches here for championship week.

Quarterback

Dan Orlovsky vs. New Orleans – He actually looked good last week and he faces a real weak Saint secondary. The problem is that he has no help at WR other than Calvin Johnson so the upside here is the issue. But it could be a high-scoring game so there’s a chance here for Orlovsky to do something of note.

Matt Schaub at Oakland – If the weather holds up, Schaub could keep it going against a Raider secondary which has struggled the last two weeks. And Oakland’s safeties have struggled as has CB Chris Johnson.
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Running Back 

DeShaun Foster at St. Louis – IF Frank Gore is out again, look for Foster to get a lot of touches in this game and he could be a very solid #3 RB against a weak Ram defense.Cedric Benson at Cleveland - It sounds crazy to back this guy, but he did well last week and and has a nice matchup this week at the Browns. Not a bad low-end reach starter this week.

Leon Washington at Seattle – I know they still don’t use him enough, but Washington could make a big play or two against a weak Seahawk defense. Not [...]

I’m in three championship games (and all three are against the GURU believe it or not) this week so I’m really focusing in on making sure I do a good job of making sure I’m making good decisions on my rosters and lineups.

Here are some quick tips to be aware of when making out your lineups and adjusting your rosters (I may add a few more later this week):

1) Have complete depth.This doesn’t just mean having handcuffs. It actually means having backups for all of your starters if possible.

Lets say you have your handcuffs for your RBs, but you don’t have a backup QB, TE, or K.

What I’m going to do this week is drop players off of my rosters that I don’t plan on using and that my opponent probably won’t pick up (very important that you only drop players that you feel won’t be needed by your opponent), like my third QB for example or backup D.

As funny as it sounds, what if my kicker got hurt in warmups and I didn’t have a backup? I’d take a zero. So I’m going to try to have a backup kicker if my roster allows for it meaning if I can afford [...]

Quarterback

Matt Schaub vs. Tennessee – Some of you have him on your roster just as a backup or for insurance purposes, but no QB has better passing options than Schaub has to work with. While this matchup is tough, the Texans have enough talent to spread out the Titan secondary.

Running Back

Dominic Rhodes vs. Detroit – Even if Joseph Addai plays, Rhodes should do well against the NFL’s worst run D. Rhodes won’t get many better matchups than this one.

Maurice Morris at St. Louis – I’ve been asked about him all week and what I can tell you is the matchup is clearly good. However, their rotation isn’t set so it’s hard to totally back him. However, Morris should do well enough this week against the poor Ram run defense for you to start him as your flex player.

Jonathan Stewart vs. Denver – His play has been up and down this season, but the way you beat Denver is by pounding them in the running game. So Stewart should get his share of carries in this matchup.

Sammy Morris at Oakland – While New England is a passing team, they’ll still find success on the ground and Morris will be good enough to start [...]

Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints

Falcons

- Michael Turner had two big runs in the first quarter. On one, he must have gotten 15 yards after first contact. That’s what he does best.

- Matt Ryan’s INT in the first quarter was probably because he didn’t see CB Jason David at all who had a great break on the ball.

- Ryan made a great throw on a quick slant from his own 1-yardline on a third down play for a first down. He led Roddy White and threaded the pass right past the defender. That’s the kind of stick throws QBs have to make.

- Ryan’s long completion to White early in the second quarter for a big gain down field was really luck. The defender fell down. But the timing between the two have is really evident. They will be a great combo for many years to come.

- Ryan had an exceptional first half. The touch he put on the ball on the fade TD catch to Brian Finneran was great. It had to be a good pass or Finneran would have landed out of bounds.

- Ryan has a great sense of pocket movement and when to step up to create functional space. I can’t [...]

Digging deep for 19 players/defenses you aren’t normally using:

Quarterback

David Garrard at Chicago – The Bears don’t have much of a pass rush and their secondary has given up a lot of yards and TDs. Garrard makes for a nice one-week reach.

Kyle Orton vs. Jacksonville – Again, the Jaguar secondary has issues and Orton makes for a nice low-end reach starter.

Matt Schaub at Green Bay – Keep in mind he hasn’t played in a while so he could be rusty. However, the Packer secondary has struggled of late so the numbers should be there in the end since he has a lot of passing options and the Packer secondary isn’t that deep.

Matt Cassel at Seattle – Count on him bouncing back in a big way this week against a struggling secondary.

Running Back

Chester Taylor at Detroit – The Lion run defense has really regressed of late. How much? How about 194 yards/2.8 TDs per game over their last four! Taylor will get his share of carries in order for you to start him as your #3 RB/flex player.

LenDale White vs. Cleveland – He’s pretty much a matchup player at this point and he has a good one this week since the Titans [...]

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Ravens

- When watching parts of this game on Sunday, I thought they were in shotgun formation more. They actually came out in many one back sets under center with Le’Ron McClain getting the carries.

- One of the more underrated traits about Joe Flacco is that he looks to extend passing plays by moving around in the pocket. He won’t throw the ball away unless he has to.  A great example of this was his first quarter 40-plus yard completion to Mark Clayton.

- Later in the quarter, he waited as long as he could then ran for a first down.

- McClain is so hard to bring down. He had many runs getting yards after first contact.

- Great job by Flacco of creating space on his TD throw to Todd Heap. He made a subtle move to create a better throwing lane. Flacco is clearly well ahead of where anyone thought he’d be at this point in his career.

- The one issue with McClain is that he lacks explosiveness on his runs so he actually leaves potential big plays on the field. Ray Rice isn’t really explosive either. McClain also fumbled twice in the game, but they retained possession on [...]