Here’s a look at my Week Four reaches:
 
Quarterback
 
J.T. O’Sullivan at New Orleans - He has great timing down with his receivers and he faces a shaky Saint secondary. 
 
Jake Delhomme vs. Atlanta - He faces a shaky Falcon secondary which really hasn’t been tested yet.
 
 
Running Back
 
Selvin Young at Kansas City - You can’t ask for a better matchup and Young is running quite well. He should get plenty of carries as the game progresses.
 
Chris Perry vs. Cleveland - He’s running well and Perry faces one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Start Perry as your #3 RB.
 
 Wide Receiver
 
Lance Moore vs. San Francisco - The 49ers have an average secondary and with Jeremy Shockey out, they’ll need Moore to provide a badly needed possession role. He makes for a solid #3 WR this week in a PPR league.
 
Robert Meachem vs. San Francisco - He has already proven that he can get deep. He should see more playing time than usual this week based on the injuries they have at the position. Not a bad #3 WR/flex option.
 
Isaac Bruce at New Orleans - He can still run well and he’s in synch with his QB and he faces a shaky Saint secondary. Bruce makes for a solid #3 WR this week.
 
Eddie Royal at Kansas City - He’s been quiet of late but he’ll get to face a rookie CB this week. 
 
Antonio Bryant vs. Green Bay - The Packer secondary is beat up so Bryant should be able to continue what he did last week.
 
Ike Hilliard vs. Green Bay - He’ll probably see a lot of CB Tramon Williams so that favors Hilliard.
 
Vincent Jackson at Oakland - He faces an injured Raider secondary.
 
Josh Reed at St. Louis - The Ram secondary is poor and Reed is going to be a solid possession receiver in their passing game. 
 
Hank Baskett at Chicago - Assuming Kevin Curtis is out again, Baskett will be a deep threat against the Bears. He’s always capable of making a big play.
 
Defense
 
Buffalo at St. Louis - The Bill defense gets one of their better matchups of the season against a shaky Ram offense that didn’t have a red zone possession in their first two games.

Last week’s reaches did pretty well so I’ll try it again:

Quarterback

J.T. O’Sullivan vs. Detroit - The game is at home against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. I have to think JTO will throw for two TDs in this game and for well over 200 yards.

Jon Kitna at San Francisco - It could get ugly at times for him with some INTs, but he’s a good bet to throw at least two TDs and for well over 200 yards against a suspect 49er secondary.
 

Running Back

Julius Jones vs. St. Louis - He may have been a dog last year but it’s all about matchups and Jones has a great one again this week.

Sammy Morris vs. Miami - Even if Laurence Maroney plays, they should be up big in this game in the second half so Morris should be at least a solid #3 RB this week.

Fred Taylor at Indianapolis - He’s been quiet so far but the only thing the Jags can really do against the Colts is run the ball.

LenDale White vs. Houston - Have to think he’ll be heavily involved again when they get a lead. White should be a solid #3 RB this week.

Wide Receiver

Amani Toomer vs. Cincinnati - CB Johnathan Joseph is doubtful to play so Toomer could continue to put up good numbers this week against a suspect Bengal secondary.

Bryant Johnson vs. Detroit - Strictly a matchup play here vs. a weak Lion secondary. Johnson got red zone looks last week which is a good sign he’ll be involved there again.

Laurent Robinson vs. Kansas City - They are starting two rookies at CB this week. Robinson is a real reach here but I’m actually starting him in one league because of injuries to my top WRs.

David Patten vs. Denver - There will be a ton of passing in this game and by the end, Patten should have decent numbers. Start him as your #3 WR.

Isaac Bruce vs. Detroit - He did well last week against a much better secondary.

Defense

Buffalo vs. Oakland - There’s no way Oakland is going to move the ball well in this road matchup for them.

We know many subscribers are always looking not just toward this season but for future seasons.

With that in mind, here’s a short list of the players to keep an eye on who could start in 2009 and beyond that are under the radar a bit

Quarterback

Kevin Kolb/Philadelphia (Dynasty) - Donovan McNabb looks great but if he gets hurt again, Kolb could be the guy in 2009.

Chad Henne/Miami (Dynasty) - He has a really strong arm and has good ability. He should start by 2010.

Derrick Ward/New York Giants (Dynasty) - Keep in mind he’s on a one-year deal and he won’t start with the Giants so he could be the starter somewhere else in 2009. He’s a powerback that could carry the rushing load for another team.

Tim Hightower/Arizona (Dynasty/Keeper) - I was on him actually on the post-draft podcast we had but I will admit I didn’t think he would be a factor this quickly. His OC Todd Haley said Hightower reminds him of Marion Barber who Haley coached a few years back with Dallas. Not only do I agree with that, I think he has more speed. Get Hightower now if you’re in a dynasty or keeper league.

Leon Washington/New York Jets (Dynasty) - Sooner or later the coaching staff will realize what they have in this guy and they’ll get him the ball more. He has special talent and Thomas Jones may not be back next season.

Steve Slaton/Houston (Dynasty/Keeper) - There’s no way Ahman Green comes back next year and Slaton is a good fit for their offensive scheme.

Ryan Torain/Denver (Dynasty) - Forget this season but the team really likes Torain’s size. They also like the way he runs and the coaches feel he’s a good fit for their zone rushing scheme.

Jordy Nelson/Green Bay (Dynasty) - We expect him to start by 2010 if not before and the coaches love him. He’s in a great offense.

Josh Morgan/San Francisco (Dynasty) - He’ll likely be in a WRBC this season but keep in mind Bryant Johnson is on a one-year deal so Morgan could be the man in 2009 for this passing game.

Robert Meachem/New Orleans (Dynasty) - This is essentially his rookie season so forget him for 2008. But the team DID draft him to be a starter and he’s in a great passing game. Now is the time to get him.

Devin Thomas/Washington (Dynasty) - Forget this season but they drafted him to eventually be a starter in 2009 and beyond. He has a lot of upside but he’s also a bit raw.

Many of us will have to find replacements for the players from the Baltimore-Houston game so you’ll have to find some other alternatives.
 
Here’s a short list of one-week reaches that could be decent replacements.
 
 
Quarterback

Jake Delhomme vs. Chicago - Hey, he did well without Steve Smith last week. I’m starting him in a league since Matt Schaub is off this week. 

Kerry Collins vs. Cincinnati - You can count on them going deep a few times so Collins should throw for at least a score and over 200 yards.

Derrick Ward vs. St. Louis - The Ram defense is garbage and Ward should see plenty of time in garbage time so he could wind up being a solid flex/#3 RB this week. 

Brandon Jackson vs. Detroit - Assuming he gets cleared to play, Jackson could see a lot of PT in the fourth quarter when the game could be out of reach or Ryan Grant could be given a rest to make sure he doesn’t have a setback with his injured hamstring.

Tim Hightower vs. Miami - He already is in a two-man rotation and he gets goal-line carries. He’s not a bad flex reach this week since the game could be out of hand late.
 
 Sammy Morris vs. New York Jets - He actually may not even be a reach at this point. The bottom line is he’s going to get at least 10 touches and he makes for an excellent flex option.
 

Santana Moss vs. New Orleans - It seems funny that he’s being classified as a reach but he’s very under the radar for sure. This is a good matchup against a suspect secondary which will be without two starters. Moss could have a strong game. 

Justin Gage vs. Cincinnati - These two had good chemistry last season and they could hook up again in this matchup against a weak Bengal secondary.

David Patten vs. Washington - He starts for Marques Colston. Patten should be involved enough for you to start him as your #3 WR. 

Matt Jones vs. Buffalo - With Jerry Porter likely to be inactive again (check our latest information before the game starts), Jones could be very involved again. We should note he’s listed as probable with a hamstring injury so he’s not exactly totally safe either. 

Heath Miller vs. Cleveland - The Browns will be without at least SS Sean Jones which is huge and FS Brodney Pool hasn’t played in a while because of a concussion. Miller faces a bad Brown defense so he makes for a solid start here based on the matchup.

Defense
 
 Arizona - They face a weak Dolphin offense on Sunday and they’ll come after Chad Pennington.

Here are some random thoughts as I look back at the first 14 games:

- There are some train wreck offenses, St. Louis, Washington, and Cincinnati come to mind.

- We knew the Atlanta defense could be your get-well defense for fantasy owners. Add Detroit’s.

- It’s hard to tell how well Michael Turner will do this season since he should be a on a bad team but as we told you many times, they are a power rushing team so he’s going to get the ball plenty. He’s off to a great start and is carrying over his fine play from the preseason.

- Calvin Johnson is ready for a breakout season. Sure the Falcon secondary is weak but he moves so well despite being as big as he is.

- Jacksonville lost both starting guards to injury so we have to see what they do to get by.

- You’ll be thanking us for Chris Johnson at some point–he’s that good. It’s only one game but he carried over his great play from training camp and the preseason. He runs with surprisingly good vision for a rookie and no back has better speed than him.

- We’ll see if Jericho Cotchery can continue what we saw against a weak Dolphin secondary but he’s going to get the ball down field this season, that much we know.

- The Miami RBs are in a true RBBC, could get ugly.

- I’m glad I drafted Kurt Warner–he could help save my season in RotoBowl since I drafted Tom Brady with my second-round pick. As we’ve said many times, you won’t lose your season because of one player. It certainly doesn’t help your cause but the waiver wire is also a life saver. Trust us, if you pick the right players off there, you can save your season–I’ve done that many times.

- When will Tampa Bay actually get a quarterback who will plant and throw the ball to an open receiver?

- Good to see Drew Brees off to a strong start. He could put up huge numbers this season if they can continue to run the ball well. He works great off of a strong running game.

- Donovan McNabb is headed for a career season if he can stay healthy for 16 games. The way the Eagle passing game works, you don’t have to have great WRs. They just have to find a way to get open. He’ll get Reggie Brown back soon and Kevin Curtis by mid season. DeSean Jackson really is a playmaker and L.J. Smith is finally healthy.

- The Houston game went exactly like we thought it would. Thank goodness for GTP.

- Watching Carson Palmer yesterday was very difficult. Could it get worse for him?

- You have to be encouraged if you’re a Jake Delhomme owner based on what he did against a usually solid Charger defense.

- Strange game for Philip Rivers. He’ll never get high grades for style and watching him could be detrimental for your health but he has lots of talent around him to work with.

- The Dallas offense seems almost unstoppable. Just pray Owens or Witten don’t get hurt.

- Cleveland ’s offense is a work in progress. They have no depth at WR as we saw on Sunday.

- The Arizona defense is one of the most underrated fantasy Ds this season. They’re a great backup or starter depending on the matchup.

- The Colt offense is also going to be a work in progress. They’re without two starters on the OL for at least the first six weeks.

- Matt Forte is another rookie back that has it going on like Chris Johnson. He can do it all.

Saturday was my first foray in RotoBowl and it didn’t quite go as planned.

Here’s a look at my draft and what I was thinking on each pick.

Round 1

Frank Gore: I had the fifth pick. It came down to the upside of Gore or the safety of Marion Barber. I chose the upside with Gore in perhaps the best offensive scheme in the NFL where the backs put up huge numbers.

Tom Brady: Those footballinjuries.com subscribers who have followed my drafting habits over the years know that I rarely take a QB before the fifth round. This pick came down to Marques Colston or Brady. I knew neither play would be there for me in the next round. I had targeted Braylon Edwards who went right before me. I just couldn’t get around what Brady did last year. But I also looked ahead, as I always do, to see who might be there for me with the next pick. You have to always plan out what might happen if you take a player here. The plan would be to go with Brandon Marshall or Steve Smith or even Santonio Holmes in the next round.

Santonio Holmes: Interestingly, Marshall went off the board after I picked in the second round and Smith went before me in the third round. I didn’t really have much choice here. I would have loved to wait another round for Holmes but I couldn’t take that chance. I paid for the selection of Brady instead of Colston. I knew that was a risk.

Jason Witten: There was next to nothing to take here. Any receiver that was a strong value was off the board. I just went the best value and that was either Witten or Kellen Winslow. Because we have two flex starters, I planned to actually take Winslow in the next round.

Kevin Smith: I wanted Winslow badly here, he’s kind of like a high-end #2 WR in this scoring and that would have really made my draft. He went right before I picked. When things don’t go as planned, you should always try to be creative–Winslow would have made up for not getting Brady. There wasn’t really anyone of note left here on the board so I went with Smith as my #2 RB.

Chris Johnson: You all know how we feel about Johnson and he’s perfect here as my #3 RB.

Joey Galloway: I really needed to get him here and I started to get nervous but he dropped to me. Easy call here.

Felix Jones: I needed WR depth but there was nothing really worth looking at here at that position so I went with Jones for depth at RB. There were some strange picks in this round like D.J. Hackett. Maybe the guy who picked him thought it was the 18th round instead of the 8th?

We also had a bunch of subscribers drafting in this league–one guy next to me took Kevin Walter here. I had planned to go with him in the next round.

Sidney Rice: I wanted to wait for him for 1-2 more rounds but I couldn’t really see anything else worth taking here. Way too early for a defense.

Eddie Royal: Again, would have waited for a few more rounds but I couldn’t see any player remotely worth taking other than Royal. It’s really about upside here in the middle rounds.

The first 10 rounds didn’t go as I wanted so I would have to really make up for it in the final 10.

Justin Fargas: Off to a great start here. He was terrific last season after taking over the starting job. He may be in a RBBC this season but you can’t do much better with him as depth.

Devin Hester: While consistency will be an issue for him he’ll have at least four to five big games this season based on the way they plan to use him. I went with his upside here. Why not?

Kurt Warner: I was shocked he didn’t go earlier based on what numbers he produced last year. Not a bad insurance policy for Brady. So far, so good in the second half.
 

Round 14

Derrick Ward: I couldn’t believe the Brandon Jacobs owner didn’t take him earlier. This is a value selection for sure.

Kevin Curtis: I needed depth at WR and Curtis could be that and more later in the season.

Philadelphia Defense: I wanted Seattle badly but they went a few rounds earlier.

Ben Utecht: I was looking for my backup TE and he’ll be that with some upside.

Andre Davis: There was total skank left and being that I don’t like skank much, I went with Davis. You saw what he did last year when he started.

Mason Crosby: He’s one of the best fantasy Ks.

Arizona Defense: They should be one of the better sleeper Ds this season.

Week One Lineup

Tom Brady
Frank Gore/Kevin Smith/Justin Fargas/Chris Johnson
Santonio Holmes/Joey Galloway/Eddie Royal
Jason Witten
Mason Crosby

Roster

QB: Tom Brady/Kurt Warner
RB: Frank Gore/Kevin Smith/Chris Johnson/Felix Jones/Justin Fargas/Derrick Ward
WR: Santonio Holmes/Joey Galloway/Sidney Rice/Eddie Royal/Devin Hester/Kevin Curtis/Andre Davis
TE: Jason Witten/Ben Utecht
K: Mason Crosby
D: Philadelphia/Arizona

Here are some quick thoughts in regard to this week’s matchups:

- First of all, be sure to listen to the podcast we did with Greg Cosell on Tuesday. If you’ve never heard him before, you’ll learn something every time you hear him break down matchups.

- On Detroit, how could Jon Kitna not throw two TDs this game against two young Falcon CBs?

- I’m very interested to see how the Eagles use DeSean Jackson this week. It could be telling.

- I think Dallas will easily score over 30 on the revamped Brown defense. Don’t be surprised if Terrell Owens scores twice on the young Brown CBs.

- The Redskin offense is a work in progress and it could get ugly Thursday morning. If you plan on watching the game, hide the family if you’re a Redskin fan.

- We’re interested in seeing how Matt Forte does Sunday night against an average Colt run defense. Forte is the most versatile back out of the 2008 draft. Think a younger Dorsey Levens with a little better speed.

- It could get ugly for the Seahawk passing game on Sunday. We do want to see how they use the RBs. How could Maurice Morris not deserve to start?

- Scalpers day off in Atlanta. Who would want to go to that game?

- We have a suspicion that Brett Favre will be throwing the ball down field plenty this season. His timing may be off with his receivers at first but we’re interested to see how they do.

- How will Kansas City score on Sunday? Free free to give us your gameplan and we’ll forward it to the Chiefs.

- All the hype we’ve given Chris Johnson will start to play out on Sunday. Jacksonville has a good defense but expect him to do something special at least a few times on Sunday.

- Joey Galloway owns the Saint secondary so expect him to BE the Buccaneer passing game as usual this season. It’s funny how teams know exactly where the ball is going yet he still wins more battles than he loses.

- Who is a bigger train wreck, the Rams or Dolphins?

- This isn’t the week to play Matt Schaub but if you’re patient he’ll pay off later.

- The only way Carolina will move the ball on Sunday without Steve Smith is on the ground and expect both top backs to get a lot of carries. They have to try to wear down San Diego’s front seven. This should be a good week to play the Charger defense.

- The 49er secondary can be had so even though the game is on the road, the Cardinal passing game should be strong–good week to get Kurt Warner in your lineup.

- On the other hand, it’s not a good week to use our boy Jay Cutler. No Brandon Marshall and an aging Darrell Jackson and rookie WR Eddie Royal, who we like, are slated as starters. Not exactly what you want going to the Black Hole.

I’ll be back later in the week but feel free to tell me I’m nuts or agree if you will…..

Here are some quick thoughts with the pre-season behind us:

·         After Donovan McNabb lost Kevin Curtis, we originally thought that he might be in trouble. After watching him play in his last two pre-season games especially, he seems to be in a zone. He’s still a great value in rounds 6-7 as your starter.

·         As for DeSean Jackson, he’s going to play a lot until Curtis comes back. Pick up Jackson for roster depth but who knows, you may wind up using him. He has special talent.

·         The Washington passing offense is a work in progress so Chris Cooley and Santana Moss owners will need to be patient.

·         The hype on Devin Hester has subsided somewhat which is a good thing. While consistency might be a problem, can you find many more players who have more upside than him in rounds 12-13?

·         I think Roddy White will be up and down this season due to Matt Ryan being the QB.

·         I’m very interested to see how Jake Delhomme does once Steve Smith does after he gets back from his two-game suspension. Delhomme was on fire last season in their new offensive scheme before he got hurt.

·         As for their RBs, we’re pretty certain Jonathan Stewart will be the main ball carrier before mid season hits. It’s just a matter of time before he takes over. Keep in mind they drafted him to handle the role.

·         He’s moving up to rounds 5-6. Just be patient in the first few games as they figure out his role.

·         We still are miffed at why Devery Henderson is seeing more time in the #2 WR role for the Saints than the others there. We have to think Robert Meachem will eventually take over that job. When is the issue.

·         Pierre Thomas’ role still is up in the air. Not surprising as that’s what we expected if Deuce McAllister would still be on the team.

·         The #2 WR role for the Buccaneers is still a mess. You could actually win it if you’re at least 6′3″ and were a high draft pick. Think I’m joking? How could Antonio Bryant be out of the league and now be pushing for that job.

·         I’ll be very interested to see how the coaches use Tim Hightower is Edgerrin James struggles at all.

·         It’s a shame that Josh Morgan has been sick all week. He’s done nothing to lose the #1 WR job with SF. Now Bryant Johnson is coming back so we could see what we feared, a rotation of both players. We’ll see how this shakes out.

·         Ronnie Brown’s role is still not clear other than he’s backing up Ricky Williams for the time being. The good thing is Brown played in the fourth pre-season game and looked good so we’ll see what they do with him going forward.

·         It will be interesting to see what the Ravens do at QB. Joe Flacco is the only healthy one they have of the top three. Flacco isn’t ready to play but he has the mental makeup to handle the ups and downs. It’s the speed of the game that he’ll struggle with.

·         Keep an eye on Demetrius Williams now that he’s back. He has value for deep depth.

·         I’ve gotten a lot of QBBC questions on the message board and I’m one who likes to use them.

·         The ones to target are: Warner/Schaub/Cutler/Garrard. The best mix probably is Warner and either Schaub or Cutler.

·         Kevin Walter is starting to get a little respect but he should still be there in rounds 11-12 for you as your #3/#4 WR. Jacoby Jones never challenged him. Walter is a supreme possession WR who is good with RAC.

·         Watching David Garrard may be detrimental to your health but the bottom line is the numbers always seem to be there in the end. I have no idea how he will average 1.5 TDs/game but he always seems to come through.

·         The Titan passing game is going to be an abomination, how much of one remains to be seen. Justin Gage and Justin McCareins as starting WRs? Is this the CFL? Gawd.

·         But the upside is they will run the heck out of the ball. We’re telling you that Chris Johnson is the closest thing the league has seen since Brian Westbrook. If you haven’t seen him play, you probably have no feel for him like we do.

·         Eddie Royal is probably the closest thing to Greg Jennings that we’ve seen this summer (props to the guru for that comparison).

·         Royal is an excellent route runner, has solid speed, and can play inside or outside. He’s also very coachable.

·         It may be ugly at times but Larry Johnson is back where he was two years ago. He had an outstanding training camp and looks fresh and not worn down. Their offensive line is a major work in progress as is their passing game. That’s why he’s a lower end #1 RB and not better.

·         Expect the Raiders to run the ball a ton this season. When they throw it on intermediate routes, most likely it’s going to our boy Zach Miller.

We’ll be keeping an eye out of the roster cuts so I’ll be back Sunday with comments…..

Welcome to Adam Caplan’s NFL Insider Blog. Adam will be chiming in from time-to-time to post some juicy tidbits.