Dec 16, 2008
I’m in three championship games (and all three are against the GURU believe it or not) this week so I’m really focusing in on making sure I do a good job of making sure I’m making good decisions on my rosters and lineups.
Here are some quick tips to be aware of when making out your lineups and adjusting your rosters (I may add a few more later this week):
1) Have complete depth.This doesn’t just mean having handcuffs. It actually means having backups for all of your starters if possible.
Lets say you have your handcuffs for your RBs, but you don’t have a backup QB, TE, or K.
What I’m going to do this week is drop players off of my rosters that I don’t plan on using and that my opponent probably won’t pick up (very important that you only drop players that you feel won’t be needed by your opponent), like my third QB for example or backup D.
As funny as it sounds, what if my kicker got hurt in warmups and I didn’t have a backup? I’d take a zero. So I’m going to try to have a backup kicker if my roster allows for it meaning if I can afford it.
I’ll never forget when my kicker (must have been in the mid 90′s, might have been John Carney) got hurt in pre-game warm-ups and I took a zero because I didn’t have a backup K. It’s better to be safe than sorry in championship week.
Even Peyton Manning, as durable as he is, isn’t 100% safe. So if you planned on going with him, still try to get a backup QB if you can.
So again, be proactive here if you can afford the roster spots.
2) Use the production tracker for those tough lineup decisions.I use the production tracker all the time and it’s the one tool out of all of them that I believe is most accurate. Try to use the last four weeks (12-15) as the guide. Anything before than isn’t as accurate because you want the most recent games. That will take more into account injuries and lineup changes by defenses.
3) Listen to our Podcast with Greg Cosell.We’ll be taping this one on Thursday morning and I will really be asking Greg to break down matchups this week that really have fantasy implications. And I’ll push him to talk about how defenses may try to defend QBs and WRs this week so pay close attention here. This why we hired Greg and he does it better than anyone else (except for Ron Jaworski of course).
4) Don’t overvalue or overreact to weather.
Here’s a great example of how over-hyping weather tends to make fantasy owners do some crazy things.
A friend of mine has Philip Rivers and Seneca Wallace as his QBs. He got spooked by the predicted windy conditions in KC last week so he started Wallace. I told him to check the updated weather forecasts for the games at weather.com right before 1:00 PM ET. He checked about an hour before that and decided the wind was going to be too bad there to throw the ball. Well he also watched the pre-game report from there which said 30 MPH winds were projected. Well as it turned out, the updated forecast right before the game started was about 19 MPH for most of the game which I thought was mangageable. So I pulled DeShaun Foster out of my lineup and put Vincent Jackson in. That move turned out to be correct and my friend wound up losing due in part to leaving Wallace in there. Rivers went nuts in the fourth quarter and you saw the results.
While there’s no absolute in judging weather, I tend to not overreact to it. Wind is the biggest impediment to passing, but only if it’s going to be bad all game, not just for part of it.