Disturbing, Debatable QB Trend Picking Up Steam
It was bound to happen, given the dearth of fine, top-tier talent at the quarterback position around the NFL. But fantasy owners across the nation are starting to panic and pay too much for their starting QB. In fact, it’s gotten to the point where the QB has officially become the new WR in terms of appeal. I’ll admit that I fell into this trap when I did an early expert draft in May and selected Peyton Manning with the #12 pick.
But the more and more I break down the trend of Tom Brady, Manning, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger going higher and higher in drafts and examine the reasoning behind it, it becomes clear that overpaying for your QB for the sake of “stability” is nothing but a sexy idea based on faulty, short-sighted thinking. There are potentially huge rewards to be reaped, of course, but there’s significant downside involved too.
After all, the majority of fantasy leagues require you to start 1 QB each week, whereas you normally need to start anywhere from 4-6 RBs and WRs. Wouldn’t basic logic dictate that ALL of your early picks (which are obviously the most valuable ones) fill the roster spots where you have the greatest number of spots to be filled (RB and WR)?
In my eyes, it’s a no-brainer. Those who wait for their starting QB in 2008 will be rewarded because you’ll have the advantage in terms of studliness and depth at RB and WR. And you’ll certainly be able to find some potential diamonds in the rough at the QB position after you’ve solidified your RB and WR spots. Plus, you won’t have to execute a perfect draft, like the guys who go early for their QB will, in order to find success.
With that in mind, I’ve taken the liberty of concocting a few good-looking QB tandems that you can get on the cheap while others mutter to themselves: “I have to get a top QB. I just have to. I have no choice. I’ll look stupid if I don’t.”
Brett Favre /Aaron Rodgers
Matt Schaub/Matt Hasselbeck
David Garrard/Jake Delhomme
Jay Cutler/Philip Rivers
Donovan McNabb/Jon Kitna
All of the aforementioned guys, aside from Rodgers and Schaub, have air-tight job security and have shown in the past that they can put up useful numbers for fantasy. They may throw in a clunker here and there, but what NFL player doesn’t?
One last point I have to mention to drive my stance home. I finished 11th overall in Rotobowl last year and guess who I drafted as my QBs? I selected Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman. I’m completely embarrassed to admit it, but it goes to show you that you can win consistently and stay competitive without overpaying for your starting QB.
How do you feel about the newly accepted notion that it’s “the right thing to do” to aggressively go after the top guns at QB, even if it means sacrificing a stud pick at RB or WR?
I know how I feel about. It’s the wrong way to go. What’s your view?
Does this theory hold true with QB’s also getting 6 points per touchdown in a PPR league?
Comment by Joel Carley — August 14, 2008 @ 5:13 pm
My league is also 6 points per pass TD too (PPR league). I’m curious for your response too.
I usually believe in loading up on RBs and WRs, pick QB in Rounds 6-8. Only problem is I’ve gotten burned the last 2 seasons doing this.
Comment by Arnie — August 14, 2008 @ 6:05 pm
I agree ZAP!
Watching ESPN “expert” draft right now and 5 QBs were taken in the first 17 picks including Hasselbeck. Unbelievable, especially in an 8 team draft by so called “experts”.
Comment by Kevin Miller — August 14, 2008 @ 6:16 pm
Big picture…I totally agree. I’m looking to load up on stud RB/WRs with my first 4-5 picks and then hopefully pull the trigger on Big Ben, Anderson, or McNabb. Of course if the value is just too good, which I’ve seen in happen in a few mocks where, due to a big talent drop-off, I’m just not feeling the top options at RB or WR, I’ve had to impact and take Brees/Palmer in the 3rd/4th. Ideally I can still snag one of the young gun WRs in the 5th as my WR2 or even a T. Jones/Kevin Smith at RB2 (not as ideal).
Comment by Jason Smith — August 14, 2008 @ 6:17 pm
I’m in a 14 team league 6 pts/TD and Qb’s fly off early. History shows #5 Qb gone by pick 22; #13 by pick 90 etc. I’m targeting Delhomme & Schaub combo in rounds 7,8.
Comment by Jeff — August 14, 2008 @ 6:35 pm
I actually got McNabb/Rivers combo in 8th and 10th round and then traded Rivers for Cutler (Keeper League). So basically in 8th and 10th I got McNabb and Cutler and was the last one to take a starting QB which means I racked up early.
Comment by Kevin Miller — August 14, 2008 @ 6:50 pm
I agree. It seems there is a QB rush in the early part of the draft. I think Mcnabb is a great value now. I would rather wait and select mcnabb and partner him with another good top 12 selection then panic for romo, brees and company.
Comment by John — August 14, 2008 @ 9:09 pm
I think this year might be a little different because there are so many potentially good rookie RBs. I usually wait until the 6th - 8th rounds in picking QBs. But because Felix Jone, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Tim Hightower, and Jim Slaton who will probably be available in the 7th - 10 rounds, I might be more incline to pick a QB in the third or fourth rounds, and grabbing as many of these RBs as I can afterwards.
Comment by Jerry — August 14, 2008 @ 10:09 pm
This rant doesn’t apply to 6 pt passing TD leagues. In that format it’s probably much wiser to go after a true stud QB, plain and simple.
Comment by Zap — August 14, 2008 @ 10:43 pm
Good point jerry, the unusual RB depth this year does make it tempting to go at a QB early…..
Comment by Zap — August 14, 2008 @ 10:46 pm
14 team 4pts/td for QB flex 2..projections are Brady#2, Manning#5, Romo#8. I couldn’t be happier, I pick #9!
Comment by Deac — August 15, 2008 @ 9:41 am
Every now and then we have a season where a particular quarterback goes nuts and scores far above the norm, such as Tom Brady did last year. Compound this with the fact that many running backs and some receivers (hi Chad!) did not do as well as expected, and it’s not really all that suprising that picking a QB early seems to be this year’s sexy trend in many leagues. My league hasn’t drafted yet, and I don’t THINK I’ll be taking a QB in the early rounds but I have to admit, Brady opened my eyes last year when I had a 24 point lead going into a Monday night game when the Pats destroyed Buffalo - racking up 50-some points and I lose by 2, based soley on his performance.
A stud is a stud, and if you’ve been fortunate to draft well (you don’t know until you know) then a high scoring quarterback can put you over the top. Culpepper had a year like that sometime ago, as did Manning. I can remember McNabb having fast start before getting hurt not too long ago either. Problem is … you don’t know until you know, and then it’s usually too late to do anything about it except think about your strategy for next year.
At any rate, I think I’ll see 2 trends developing in my league this year … looking for a QB that mirrors Brady’s perfomance of 2007, and looking for the next rookie version of Adrian Peterson.
Comment by PackFan — August 15, 2008 @ 10:20 am
I have to agree with you Zap. I think this is a very good year to wait on a QB since others will most likely jump on the bandwagon early. I think the Gerrard / Delhomme or McNabb / Kitna combo would be great to have since you should theoretically be set at RB and WR and maybe even a top 3 TE with this strategy. Last year I went for a Palmer in the 3rd round. Later in I think the 12 round I picked up Jay Cutler. When it was all said and done, Palmer barely outscored Cutler, I think averaging close to 2 points a game more. Yeah, 2 points is good to have, but I could have spent that pick on Randy Moss or someone else who most likely would have outscored any other pick in the 12th round by much more than 2 points a game. You guys stress value picks a lot, and waiting until later for a QB is what a value pick is all about.
Comment by ScottB — August 15, 2008 @ 10:26 pm
Your Plamer/Cutler example is a good illustration of why it’s sane to wait for QBs….gotta love value.
Comment by Zap — August 16, 2008 @ 10:25 am
hey Zap,
in 10 team PPR mocks, I’ve been driven to this strategy by how quickly the QB’s have gone - Brady, 1st, Manning 2nd, Romo/Brees 3rd rd, etc. Their gone before the value can be considered. I’ve been very pleasantly surprised with the talent at WR and RB falling to me. My question is what is the basis for your QB combos? As simple as bye weeks and ADP, or did you look at their respective match-ups and find good fits (ie not overlapping)for their respective ‘good’ matchups? Thanks!
Comment by steve — August 16, 2008 @ 10:35 pm
Honestly, there was no basis for the tandems, other than showing you that you can nab respectable names for much cheaper. You can make up whatever duo you want….it just would have to be from guys ranked roughly 8-20 in the QB rankings.
Comment by Zap — August 16, 2008 @ 10:55 pm
Well I got the duo of Schaub and Hasselbeck. Let’s hope they work out for me.
Comment by Arnie — August 18, 2008 @ 10:10 am
good work Arnie!
Comment by Zap — August 18, 2008 @ 2:00 pm