Garrard’s Value Sliding
David Garrard, in my eyes, is a fantastic backup fantasy choice in 2008 and a borderline starter because of his strong arm, his mobility, and his mistake-free brand of football. It also helps that he has a superior running game behind him. And honestly, I like the guy. A few of my very close friends went to ECU when he was there and I remember them raving about Garrard, so I’ve had my eye on him for quite some time.
In addition, when I was covering the preseason for the site last August, I proclaimed that Garrard was deserving of the job over complete stiff and fraud Byron Leftwich. It was evident in his play last summer that this guy was ready to take the next step in his NFL career. He took that step in 2008 with a sweet 18-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. And I was proud to have endorsed him as the future for Jacksonville.
With that said, I’m concerned about him right now because things aren’t going well with his supporting cast. It’s still early and we have a long way to go before the real action commences. Yet here are some clearly negative factors to consider with Garrard:
- Jerry Porter, the big-money free-agent addition expected to stretch the field and add explosiveness to the Jag aerial attack, had hamstring surgery and is laid up, maybe even to start the season. Plus, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and he’s never had either a 1,000-yard season or a double-digit-TD campaign.
- Reggie Williams, the stud of the Jag wideout corps in 2007, had a setback with his sprained knee in practice after starting camp on the PUP list and appears to be pretty gimped out at this point. Apparently, the Gimp’s not sleeping.
- Dennis Northcutt, who’s undersized and average to begin with, has a back injury that he’s dealing with.
- Troy Williamson continues to drop passes in practice.
- Mike Walker’s knee continues to slow him down and limit his reps.
- John Broussard is completely unproven.
- Matt Jones still isn’t committed to football (can’t say what I really want to say here).
- And in the sickest twist of irony, the Jags failed to draft a wideout in April.
Soooooooooo, has that killed your buzz yet, Garrard lovers?
It should because Maurice Jones-Drew and Marcedes Lewis can’t carry the Jag passing game. The Jags may bring in a street free agent like Terry Glenn or Koren Robinson, but will that really help? Doubt it.
I’m not saying jump ship on Garrard because he’s a quality player and the aforementioned guys could always turn it around as the season nears. But you better start to temper expectations a bit, as it looks like head coach Jack Del Rio may have no choice but to run the ball 35 times/game in 2008 if things keep trending downward with Jacksonville’s receivers into the dog days of August.
On a side note, I’d like to thank all of our subscribers who’ve been supportive of me in my first year with FantasyGuru.com as well as John and Bill, who’ve been great mentors and friends in my time of transition. I’m looking forward to a great Year Two with the site and with all of you. I love talking fantasy strategy and football with you guys and gals.
Now get studying, it’s fantasy football season!
Before I saw that Porter can’t get going, I was seriously thinking of waiting on Gerrard as my starter. Not so sure of that now, but again, as my #2, I’d be thrilled.
Comment by ScottB — July 30, 2008 @ 5:48 am
Hey Zap,
Do you think that this will be a detriment to MJD’s value at all. If Jacksonville has a limited passing game, I would think that defenses should be able to stuff the run much more easily.
Comment by Doug — July 30, 2008 @ 6:15 am
Unfortunately, I inherited a team with Garrard as my starter. 20 team league, so no chance at picking up another. That beign said, I hope you are wrong about this one Zap, but I don’t think you are. Hopefully, these guys heal up in time for the season. I think Glenn would help though, but his old ass may bet hurt again too.
Comment by JBeau — July 30, 2008 @ 7:54 am
Great post, Zap. Garrard helped me win a championship in one of my keeper leagues (pairing with McNabb) last season and I honestly do expect the same type of numbers, maybe 3 or 4 TDs more, if he stays healthy. But the upside isn’t there, that is on what I agree with you. Again, good read.
Comment by Baron — July 30, 2008 @ 8:27 am
As far as MJD goes, I think he’s special enough to overcome a weak passing game, so I wouldn’t worry about him. The Jag running game is a well-oiled machine.
Comment by Zap — July 30, 2008 @ 8:49 am
I have only read very good things about Williamson to date… Almost too good… I haven’t seen anything negative about him yet, but I’ll take your word on him, especially since I was going to avoid this whole passing game anyway, aside from having Garrard as my QB2 if possible. Easy for me to say though, since I have Brady!
Comment by JOOCE — July 30, 2008 @ 9:12 am
Yea, Williamson got some good press in OTAs and minicamp, but since training camp started, I’ve read he’s dropped some balls. You can’t trust him, no way, no how.
Comment by Zap — July 30, 2008 @ 10:41 am
Hasn’t he ever heard of Lasik??
Comment by JOOCE — July 30, 2008 @ 11:18 am
Looks like Reggie Williams will need a scope….bad news just got worse.
Comment by Zap — July 30, 2008 @ 3:41 pm
I was wary of Garrard already and your insights back up that concern well. I too was worried about how this might affect MJD’s numbers this year since I’m eyeing him for RB as the 10th draft pick in my league — IF I was lucky enough for him to fall to me. Your reassurance on that question is very helpful, Zap. Congrats on putting year one in the books and keep up the great work!
Comment by spudballscott — July 31, 2008 @ 12:12 pm
Thanks. Yea, with MJD, you can’t really worry too much about the bad vibes in the passing game. He’s shown he’s an explosive playmaker already, not to mention a TD maker and a good receiver. And look what Adrian Peterson did last with the ultra-shaky Tarvaris Jackson at the helm and Bobby Wade as the #1. If you can’t get him at #10, I’d be surprised….
Comment by Zap — July 31, 2008 @ 12:44 pm
I hope all this won’t change Garrard too much. Which receiver was it last season that made him so solid? Williams grabbed 10 big ones a year ago but, hell, MJD caught more balls than JAXs biggest receiving threat (if you actually consider him that) and Garrard didn’t even toss a couple of those. He’ll have an OL that should again be, at the very least, serviceable so, if he can stay healthy maybe he can just be the guy owners need him to be. Isn’t he still a player that could potentially put up numbers like Cutler, Hasselbeck, Anderson, or McNabb and go 2-3 rounds later? Maybe he’d have had upside with a healthy new receiving corps, but really if we’re all looking for Garrard to be, “Mr. Consistency” how much as changed here? A situation to keep an eye on, but I’m not too anxious yet.
Comment by hailvictory — July 31, 2008 @ 12:58 pm
Oh, I’d expect MJD to be available to me in the 10 slot, especially since at least two of our league coaches go for either a QB *way* early or opt for the top WR instead of a second-tier RB, which only leaves 6 coaches ahead of me drafting an RB in the first round. It’s a matter of which other RBs are left on the board by my pick… likely Portis, McGahee, Lynch. I’d be ecstatic if Gore was somehow overlooked by the 10 slot.
Comment by spudballscott — August 2, 2008 @ 9:21 pm
At this rate, I may well wake up to news that Brett Favre is a Buccaneer (as late word out of Tampa implies tonight). While it’s not a fit like Minnesota would be, how do you like his fantasy value in TB (if any)?
Comment by spudballscott — August 6, 2008 @ 1:06 am