July 29, 2008

Garrard’s Value Sliding

Filed under: Zap: NFL, MLB Closers — Zap @ 10:23 pm

David Garrard, in my eyes, is a fantastic backup fantasy choice in 2008 and a borderline starter because of his strong arm, his mobility, and his mistake-free brand of football. It also helps that he has a superior running game behind him. And honestly, I like the guy. A few of my very close friends went to ECU when he was there and I remember them raving about Garrard, so I’ve had my eye on him for quite some time.

 

In addition, when I was covering the preseason for the site last August, I proclaimed that Garrard was deserving of the job over complete stiff and fraud Byron Leftwich. It was evident in his play last summer that this guy was ready to take the next step in his NFL career. He took that step in 2008 with a sweet 18-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. And I was proud to have endorsed him as the future for Jacksonville.

 

With that said, I’m concerned about him right now because things aren’t going well with his supporting cast. It’s still early and we have a long way to go before the real action commences. Yet here are some clearly negative factors to consider with Garrard:

 

  • Jerry Porter, the big-money free-agent addition expected to stretch the field and add explosiveness to the Jag aerial attack, had hamstring surgery and is laid up, maybe even to start the season. Plus, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and he’s never had either a 1,000-yard season or a double-digit-TD campaign.

  • Reggie Williams, the stud of the Jag wideout corps in 2007, had a setback with his sprained knee in practice after starting camp on the PUP list and appears to be pretty gimped out at this point. Apparently, the Gimp’s not sleeping.

  • Dennis Northcutt, who’s undersized and average to begin with, has a back injury that he’s dealing with.

  • Troy Williamson continues to drop passes in practice.

  • Mike Walker’s knee continues to slow him down and limit his reps.

  • John Broussard is completely unproven.

  • Matt Jones still isn’t committed to football (can’t say what I really want to say here).

  • And in the sickest twist of irony, the Jags failed to draft a wideout in April.

Soooooooooo, has that killed your buzz yet, Garrard lovers?

 

It should because Maurice Jones-Drew and Marcedes Lewis can’t carry the Jag passing game. The Jags may bring in a street free agent like Terry Glenn or Koren Robinson, but will that really help? Doubt it.

 

I’m not saying jump ship on Garrard because he’s a quality player and the aforementioned guys could always turn it around as the season nears. But you better start to temper expectations a bit, as it looks like head coach Jack Del Rio may have no choice but to run the ball 35 times/game in 2008 if things keep trending downward with Jacksonville’s receivers into the dog days of August.

 

On a side note, I’d like to thank all of our subscribers who’ve been supportive of me in my first year with FantasyGuru.com as well as John and Bill, who’ve been great mentors and friends in my time of transition. I’m looking forward to a great Year Two with the site and with all of you. I love talking fantasy strategy and football with you guys and gals.

Now get studying, it’s fantasy football season!

July 23, 2008

You Look Marvelous

Filed under: Zap: NFL, MLB Closers — Zap @ 3:33 pm

Great news on the Marvin Harrison front surfaced today. Head coach Tony Dungy pronounced him ready for action, which means he’ll participate in training camp. And provided he doesn’t have any setbacks this summer with his troublesome knees, he shouldn’t have any issues returning to his role as Peyton Manning’s go-to guy in 2008.

 

I know what you’re thinking. When Marvin was out last year, Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark absolutely took over. So that must mean that trio will pick up where they left off this season and Harrison will be left with the scraps, right? Well, to an extent that’s true because Indy loves the upside of younger guys Wayne and Gonzo. But we’re talking about Marvin Harrison here, one of the NFL’s most prolific receivers of all time and a guy who absolutely commands the ball.

 

Last season, I passed on Harrison in all of my leagues because I foresaw his downfall in 2007. He was just too consistent since 1999 (double-digits TDs every year) and something told me he was destined for an off-year. Sure enough, he posted 20/247/1, missed 11 regular season games, and, well, you know the rest. Good thing I have that sixth sense like my late sister Rosalie, who was actually a legitimate psychic for a living.

 

This season, I’m not going to hesitate to snatch Harrison if I can get him in the 4th round or later because I smell a big-time bounce-back year. Peeps are way down on him and he’s a fantastic value right now in drafts, despite his pretty sizeable injury baggage and risk. So you have to take notice even if you don’t trust him. With Manning throwing him the ball, Joseph Addai keeping defenses honest, and Clark drawing safety attention down the seam, how can Harrison not succeed in 2008?

 

The answer is it’s almost impossible. The only way he fails this season is if he re-injures one of his knees. And after months of down-time to recover, I don’t envision that happening. If he’s just 85% healthy, #2 WR fantasy production should be no problem for Harrison in 2008.

 

There’s plenty of room on the Harrison bandwagon if you want to jump on with me. After all, most people want to anoint Gonzalez as the next marvelous receiving option in Indy. Not me, I’ll roll the dice and take my chances with Marvelous Marvin. The value’s just too good to pass up.

July 17, 2008

Ronnie and Ricky: An Intriguing Pair

Filed under: Zap: NFL, MLB Closers — Zap @ 11:39 am

Ronnie Brown is coming off ACL surgery and his boy Cam Cameron no longer coordinates the Dolphin offense. Ricky Williams is a strange cat who is on the wrong side of 30 and trying to bounce back from a torn pectoral muscle. But despite all that baggage, this backfield has me intrigued with training camp bearing down on us. Not Brown or Williams individually, per se – the tandem, together, as one unit.

 

First off, Brown broke out last year in a huge way. He was a beast before he suffered the knee injury, leading the NFL in total yards from scrimmage and notching four consecutive 100-yard rushing games. And for your PPR leaguers, it’s worth noting that he was on pace for 80+ receptions.

 

Meanwhile, Williams has demonstrated a tremendous work ethic this off-season and he’s healthy. He’s in phenomenal shape, he’s reportedly focused on helping the team, and he’s ready to take whatever part of the load Brown can’t handle.

 

At this point, we’re not sure exactly how the carries will shake out early in the season, how the young O-line will mesh, and who the QB will be. Yet you can bet your bottom dollar that the Dolphins will be a run-friendly team in 2008. They have no choice, actually. Ted Ginn and Ernest Wilford can’t carry an offense on their unproven shoulders. And no quarterback on their roster has any upside at all.

 

So I’m going to go out on a limb and speculate that head coach Tony Sparano is going to run Ronnie and Ricky into the ground in 2008. For fantasy, that’s the kind of situation you may want to capitalize on.

 

I think this will be one of the more productive RBBCs in the NFL this year, of course, assuming Brown doesn’t have any major setbacks in-season. You’ll love what Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew give you and you should enjoy success with Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. But consider the value you could get with Ronnie and Ricky. Many will be scared off by Brown’s surgically repaired ACL and Williams’ past transgressions. You shouldn’t be when the price is right.

July 8, 2008

Shameless Favre Puts Packers in No-Win Situation

Filed under: Zap: NFL, MLB Closers — Zap @ 2:32 pm

I really don’t care for all the Brett Favre hoopla that’s been circulating since he predictably admitted that he’s still got the “itch” to play. My feeling is that the guy has accomplished all he possibly can and solidified himself as one of the greatest gunslingers to ever fire the pigskin. So why linger like a bad rash and flip-flop like a wannabe politician? Why make your own legacy so awkward and uncomfortable when it should be shiny and brilliant? And finally, why toy with the feelings of rabid Packer fans?

 

This whole Favre story makes me fume internally because of the unenviable position it puts the Packers in, one season after they nearly made the Super Bowl. If they take him back and hand him the starting job, they’ll be vilified for not giving Aaron Rodgers his much-deserved chance in 2008. If they trade or release him and he catches on with another NFC team, Green Bay might have to face him in a make-or-break game, possibly even in the postseason. Plus, team brass would be relentlessly attacked for turning their backs on the guy who gave Packer fans so many fond memories over the last 15+ years.

 

With all that said and off my chest, I’d like to see the Packers close the door on the Favre era for good and deal with whatever ramifications arise. If he makes them pay on the field, so be it. If the public backlash is huge, ignore it. If Rodgers falls flat on his face, deal with it. But they shouldn’t even entertain thoughts of welcoming him back with open arms because of the sheer egotism he’s shown by teetering on the brink of retirement for the last three off-seasons.

 

Although he thinks he is, Favre is not a savior. And he has absolutely no right to put himself above the concept of a team. The last time I checked, 53 men suit up on Sundays for the Packers. Not just one.