Mr. Overvalued
I hate to burst everyone’s bubble, but Ryan Grant is overvalued right now. Flat out. He’s going in the first/second round in drafts, as owners expect him to repeat last season’s big-play bonanza. But guess what? The guy hasn’t even practiced with his team this spring because of a contract dispute. Missing time that he could be using to learn and grow as a lead NFL back is not a smart move for him. And his situation has me worried, particularly because so many people aren’t hesitating to call his name very, very early, as if he’s somehow immune to a regression in 2008.
In his absence, which stems from his wanting a big payday (like every other dude in the NFL), Brandon Jackson has been maturing, developing his pass-catching skills, and building up confidence. I’m not suggesting Jackson’s going to steal the job from Grant because he’s a raw second-year player with a lot to learn, he sputtered in 2007, and he dealt with nagging injuries. Nor am I proposing that Grant will be useless for fantasy purposes in 2008.
I’m simply getting the vibe that the Packer RB picture could spiral into a running-back-by-committee, thus limiting Grant’s upside. He’s no Adrian Peterson and the Packers will experience some substantial growing pains without the legendary Brett Favre, so don’t blindly spend a high pick on Grant and expect to plug-and-play him all season. Also, keep in mind that pass-happy head coach Mike McCarthy is completely enamored with his “Big Five” formation, which makes use of five wideouts and de-emphasizes the ground game.
Like countless others, I grabbed Grant off waivers last season and rode him down the stretch, so I’m well aware of the potency that he can bring to a fantasy roster. It’s just that the vibes surrounding him right now aren’t great. And we saw last year that McCarthy will ride the hot hand at RB, so Jackson, a second-round pick with good shiftiness who the Packers need meaningful contributions from this year, could ultimately wind up being a better value than Grant this year.
Bottom line, my gut tells me people are making a huge mistake by penciling in Grant for massive, stud-like production this season. The only way I’ll tangle with Grant is if he falls into the third round, which seems like an impossibility given his current ADP is in the 16-18 range.
Zap, couldn’t agree more. I rode Grant like countless others in the second year of the draft. I have him in a keeper league and I may not even keep him. I don’t trust him or the Packers next year. They are losing a Hall of Famer, and its not like Young replacing Montana. Grant only got the chance to start because of injuries last year, so its not to say that the Packers don’t like Jackson or Wynn for that matter. I am trying to stay away from these question mark players this year. Sure, I may miss some big time production, but I would rather draft the sure thing. I think someone like Thomas Jones may outproduce Grant this year, and he isn’t getting drafted till a few rounds after Grant.
Comment by JBeau — June 18, 2008 @ 2:52 pm
I’ve already decided that if I end up picking #8, 9 or 10 that I’ll be looking at one of the elite WR or maybe even a QB. I’m not liking the RB’s that will be around after LT, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, Brian Westbrook and Adrian Peterson are drafted and Ryan Grant tops that list of RB’s I’m not liking. I think the Packers will struggle this year with a new QB and that Ryan Grant will come back down to earth. I agree with JBeau that Thomas Jones will out produce Grant this year and I even think that before the year is out that Jackson will end up as the starter.
Comment by ScottB — June 18, 2008 @ 9:57 pm
although I do not see grant as a first round pick, I have to diagree with Grant being overated
I do see Grant as a great middle of the second round pick
when Larry Johnson blew up at the end of the year, he was a top 3 pick the next year
why does Grant get no love, the offense will basically be the same without farve
there will be running lanes with the spread offense, and a bunch of good WR’s
and even though Rodgers is not Farve, he does have a stong arm
I think Grant will be more than fine considering Green Bay’s strong defense
anybody that passes on Grant in the Mid 2nd round will be sorry
this is just my opinion
Comment by zzanook — June 19, 2008 @ 1:27 pm
Didn’t say overrated, said overvalued. Big difference. If you’re feeling him, by all means, indulge. I’m not endorsing passing on him, simply getting the word out that he’s going extremely high.
Comment by Zap — June 19, 2008 @ 2:10 pm
Like Zap said, big difference. As a Dolphin’s fan, I know what its like for your team to lose a hall of famer. Defense’s respect and fear Favre….this opens up lanes for Grant, or whoever was healthy on that team. Granted, Grant had better vision than his co-workers, because jackson’s stats weren’t great, and neither were Wynns. Rodgers will not scare anyone, thus Grant’s stats will suffer. Mind you, without the TDs, he wasn’t anything special. We all love him, cause we picked him up and afterwards he scored every weekend. but 5 of those games he rushed for under 100, Favre was the one who put him in the position to score those short runs. Not overrated , overvallued like Zap said. A great pick up in round 3 - 5, but not before, I am grabbing T.Jones or a Wideout.
Comment by JBeau — June 19, 2008 @ 3:07 pm
yes I do agree he is going high in redraft leagues
I would never grab him in the 1st round
but I would take a flyer on him in the 2nd
and even with the jets new line, I would never grab jones over grant ( that is a reach )
anyway I have him in a dynasty league and I will roll with him
I also have Bush, Lynch, Young, B. Jackson, and DeAngelo Williams in a PPR with length of TD’s bonus’
to pair up with A Johnson and Wayne
so I am not really concerned with the lose of Farve
Zap sorry for misunderstanding your overvalued comment
because I myself think he is overvalued in the first
but I have no problem with rolling with him as my #2 in a redraft league
Comment by zzanook — June 19, 2008 @ 4:29 pm
1st or 2nd round…no way.
Comment by JBeau — June 20, 2008 @ 8:42 am
Zap I think you hit the nail on the head when you said “McCarthy will ride the hot hand at RB …” With Grant, Wynn, Jackson, Morency and perhaps Noah Herron to choose from he’s got a stable of pretty good backs - no real superstars - but decent guys all who have the potential to play a significant role. The same can be said of the wide receiver group - lots of guys who can contribute … it remains to be seen who Rodgers favorite targets will be. As for Rodgers, no doubt there will be growing pains, especially when it comes to reading defenses, diagnosing blitzes and making the correct reads. But Rodgers will be more mobile than Favre, and the offense will be adjusted to reflect this strengths and minimize his weaknesses. Sitting on the bench for 3 years preparing for this day will certainly help - he doesn’t have much field time - but he’s not a green rookie either. The true strength of this year’s Packer team is in its coaching staff, and the team will reflect their ability to game plan, teach and motivate. The first game of the season against Minnesota on Monday Night Football at Lambeau will be very interesting to watch, as will the entire season. I think a Packer back might be a good 3rd or 4th back for your fantasy team … the question is - which one?
Comment by PackFan — June 20, 2008 @ 11:04 am
Thanks PackFan, great insight. I totally agree that McCarthy is a helluva coach with a very innovative mind. Wish he’d come and coach our hometown team, the Eagles. I’m definitely thinking Rodgers can succeed, to an extent. Grant and Jackson would be the only Packer backs I’d tangle with to be honest. Wynn’s only value is near the goal-line I believe.
Comment by Zap — June 20, 2008 @ 11:20 am
Don’t forget about Deshawn Wynn either. Too much competition.
Comment by Doug — July 16, 2008 @ 9:48 am