June 30, 2008

The Unconventional 2-TE approach

Filed under: Zap: NFL, MLB Closers — Zap @ 7:04 pm

While I was getting ready for my expert mock draft tonight and mapping my strategy, I was reminded of a clever little method I’ve made use of before in my fantasy endeavors, which I’m not sure the masses are really open to experimenting with or too aware of. You can take it or leave it, as it’s just a small nugget I thought could help a few folks. It’s not Gospel, it doesn’t suit everyone, and some purists may even call it idiocy. But it’s benefited me in the past and I’ve utilized it with success in tough draft situations.

 

I call it the 2-TE approach, namely because the strategy involves starting (yes, you read that right) a pair of tight ends. Not ordinary tight ends. Just the top dogs at the position. The cream of the crop if you would.  

 

Every league is different nowadays, but many setups that involve Flex starters make TEs eligible for that slot along with the obvious (RBs and WRs). If you’re drafting in a league like this where you can double your pleasure by rolling with two top-tier tight ends as starters, I’ve got some advice for you from my own experience.

 

Give it a whirl! It can pan out for you if you choose wisely, at the right time, and under the right conditions.

 

Last year, I implemented this technique and paired Chris Cooley with Tony Gonzalez. Several years ago, I remember doing it with Gonzo and Todd Heap. In both of those instances, I made the playoffs and finished as a top-three team.

 

It’s a risky strategy for sure because, by their very nature, TEs aren’t targeted as much as WRs. Plus, it works best when you spend back-to-back picks (say round 6-7) on your tight end tandem to beat the position run, which may seem like wasted picks in the first half of your draft. But let me tell you something. A top-10 tight end who’s a key part of his team’s offense can be just as valuable and productive on a weekly basis as a #2-3 WR or a committee/change-of-pace RB on an average-to-poor offense. Primarily, that’s due to TDs.

 

So when you’re debating whether you should pick up Jerricho Cotchery or Javon Walker and deciding between Jerious Norwood or DeAngelo Williams, you should whip out your TE cheat-sheet and roll the dice for your Flex production.

 

Just a couple of disclaimers, so you don’t think I’ve gone batty. First, make sure it’s in a PPR league, otherwise it’s pointless. And only do it as a fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants method in a draft where the wideouts have flown off the board earlier than usual. I say this because, to properly pull off the 2-TE approach and do it with really strong players, you simply have to reach, which is something many fantasy footballers frown upon.

 

Myself, I’m a gambling man. I enjoy taking risks when a draft gets very competitive and when I’m not pleased with the potential Flex options I’m faced with.

 

My potentially lethal 2-TE combo for 2008: Vernon Davis paired with Kellen Winslow.

Caplan’s NFL Insider Blog

Filed under: Caplan: NFL Insider Blog — jhansen @ 10:15 am

Welcome to Adam Caplan’s NFL Insider Blog. Adam will be chiming in from time-to-time to post some juicy tidbits.

June 20, 2008

A Quick Nugget on McNabb

Filed under: Zap: NFL, MLB Closers — Zap @ 11:41 am

As a life-long Eagles fan (with zero bias by the way since my job demands it), I feel that I can speak about Donovan McNabb intelligently and accurately. Well, as I listened to him yesterday explaining the definition of shoulder tendonitis to the media as simply “tightness,” I realized that he’s gone through his nine-year career without learning an essential (and pretty basic) skill that QBs like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo have perfected.

 

It’s called the touch pass. And it probably could have made him a borderline Hall-of-Famer if he wasn’t so stubborn, aloof, arrogant, and caught up in flashing his strong arm, which is now slowly deteriorating.  

 

Year after year, I’ve been dumbfounded as I’ve watched #5 fire passes high, low, left, and right to his receivers when all he needed to do was thread the needle with a soft, accurate throw. Newsflash! Maybe the unnecessary and clearly excessive velocity he’s been putting on the pigskin for almost 10 years is finally catching up with him.

 

For McNabb to return to fantasy prominence in 2008, he needs to swallow his pride and learn that a QB doesn’t need to throw the ball like Nolan Ryan to excel in the modern-day NFL.

 

Sorry for hopping up on my large soapbox, but I had to get that off my chest. I feel better now.

June 18, 2008

Mr. Overvalued

Filed under: Zap: NFL, MLB Closers — Zap @ 11:47 am

I hate to burst everyone’s bubble, but Ryan Grant is overvalued right now. Flat out. He’s going in the first/second round in drafts, as owners expect him to repeat last season’s big-play bonanza. But guess what? The guy hasn’t even practiced with his team this spring because of a contract dispute. Missing time that he could be using to learn and grow as a lead NFL back is not a smart move for him. And his situation has me worried, particularly because so many people aren’t hesitating to call his name very, very early, as if he’s somehow immune to a regression in 2008.

 

In his absence, which stems from his wanting a big payday (like every other dude in the NFL), Brandon Jackson has been maturing, developing his pass-catching skills, and building up confidence. I’m not suggesting Jackson’s going to steal the job from Grant because he’s a raw second-year player with a lot to learn, he sputtered in 2007, and he dealt with nagging injuries. Nor am I proposing that Grant will be useless for fantasy purposes in 2008.

 

I’m simply getting the vibe that the Packer RB picture could spiral into a running-back-by-committee, thus limiting Grant’s upside. He’s no Adrian Peterson and the Packers will experience some substantial growing pains without the legendary Brett Favre, so don’t blindly spend a high pick on Grant and expect to plug-and-play him all season. Also, keep in mind that pass-happy head coach Mike McCarthy is completely enamored with his “Big Five” formation, which makes use of five wideouts and de-emphasizes the ground game.

 

Like countless others, I grabbed Grant off waivers last season and rode him down the stretch, so I’m well aware of the potency that he can bring to a fantasy roster. It’s just that the vibes surrounding him right now aren’t great. And we saw last year that McCarthy will ride the hot hand at RB, so Jackson, a second-round pick with good shiftiness who the Packers need meaningful contributions from this year, could ultimately wind up being a better value than Grant this year.

 

Bottom line, my gut tells me people are making a huge mistake by penciling in Grant for massive, stud-like production this season. The only way I’ll tangle with Grant is if he falls into the third round, which seems like an impossibility given his current ADP is in the 16-18 range.

June 16, 2008

Personal Conduct Meets Fantasy

Filed under: Zap: NFL, MLB Closers — Zap @ 8:50 pm

I just learned that Javon Walker, who signed a ridiculous contract with the Raiders in free agency this off-season, was discovered in Las Vegas lying unconscious on a sidewalk with an orbital fracture and taken to a hospital where he’s in fair condition. I almost threw up on myself. Why you ask?

 

Well, I’m nauseated by the thought of well-paid professional football players getting in hot water off the field, whether it’s with the law or their physical well-being. I mean, for crying out loud, you’re being paid to play a game for a living. Is it that tough to keep a low profile, work on your craft, and make it through the off-season in one piece? It can’t possibly be.

 

Playing baseball throughout my youth, I was always taught by my father to put my team first and steer clear of any dangerous or threatening circumstances. Why can’t one family member, one agent, one team official, one coach, or one teammate preach the same thing in this day and age?

 

It’s been an epidemic lately around the league and that disturbing trend along with Roger Goodell’s crackdown on bad behavior will no doubt impact fantasy owners (and actual NFL teams) in 2008 and beyond. Just look at the spectrum of arrests, issues, and injuries occurring with big-name guys like Chris Henry, Travis Henry, Cedric Benson, LenDale White, Marshawn Lynch, and Brandon Marshall this off-season. Even a so-called “character” guy like Marvin Harrison has found his way into a bad situation. I know they’re human and they’ll make mistakes, but that doesn’t make it pardonable.

 

What this all means for fantasy is that you’ve got to have a backup plan built into your roster for unforeseen disasters, which seem to pop up each week in the modern-day NFL, sadly enough. Arrests, non-football injuries, and all other inexcusable circumstances that “our” players get themselves into will need to be planned for, plain and simple.

 

Essentially, what I’m suggesting is that you be forward-thinking and always remember that drafting for depth is just as vital as fielding your starting lineup.

 

I know this is important because I drafted Javon Walker already this year. And I’m not afraid to admit it because I snatched up Drew Carter to protect my investment. With a seemingly endless list of impact fantasy performers getting in trouble, getting hurt, or getting shown the door, you ought to protect your investments as well, even a guy who appears to be a saint on the surface.

June 9, 2008

Deep League LB Depth

Filed under: O'Malley: IDPs and anything else on his mind — OMalley @ 10:00 am

 

I recently completed the Guru IDP Top 100 for the Magazine (posted in the IDP Section of the Homepage) so there will be quite a few posts discussing the players on the list, those that just missed, and those I never considered.

 

But first, I noticed two major differences between this list and those from recent years:

  • Before finalizing the list I had to convince myself that my No. 11 ranked player was worthy to carry the torch for the “Next 10” best picks (the Top 10 guys all pass the name test quite easily)
  • There’s a narrow gap between the 2nd, 3rd, and even some of the 4th Tier LB entering the ’08 season

 

The aforementioned No. 11 ranked player is Vikings LB E.J. Henderson. I won’t get into his candidacy here (we’d prefer you buy the Magazine or, short of that, keep your Web subscription and read the column!) but at No. 11, I’m basically saying E.J. should be the second, and for a few leagues, the first defensive player you select.

 

Jump down the list to No. 44 and you’ll see the name Antonio Pierce.  How can Henderson rank 33 spots higher (16 LB are ranked between the two) than a proven IDP option such as Pierce? Couldn’t Pierce be your second-best defensive player in a deep league this season as well? Despite my convincing case for each ranking on the list, I have to admit there’s an underlying theme throughout:

 

Linebacker Value

 

So on draft day, after the top tier of LB and impact DL/DB are gone, you’ll likely build a better squad by concentrating on improving your offense–stockpiling reliable backup RB and WR–because believe me, there are plenty of LB to go around  in 2008. Some of them aren’t even starters…yet.

 

More on those hidden gems in future posts.

June 4, 2008

Defense Wins Championships

Filed under: Zap: NFL, MLB Closers — Zap @ 12:09 pm

While the majority of fantasy owners foam at the mouth over RBs and WRs on draft day, I tend to get excited (and even giddy) about selecting my Team Defenses. Sure, you need a balanced roster with studs at every position to be a consistent performer in fantasy football, but I’ve noticed that many people overlook the importance of having a two steady, upside defenses that can erupt any given week. It’s an edge you need to have and it’s an edge that can make you a champion.

 

In all leagues, I always try to pick a pair of potential-laden units. Usually, I base my choices on preseason performance, player chemistry, and off-season additions. Not coaches, not past performance, not reputation, and not scheme, although they’re obviously factors I consider. I focus primarily on how a defense is gelling in the summer and if they’re flying around the ball in exhibition games. It’s a strategy that never seems to let me down because intensity and rapport is everything with an NFL defense.

 

Last August, I was riding high on New England, Tennessee, Minnesota, Seattle, and Green Bay because they collectively jumped off the screen at me while watching their preseason games. I got every one of them except Minnesota (ouch) in my various leagues, and the only one of those Ds that didn’t finish as a top-10 unit was Tennessee. So clearly, I was “in tune” with how things were going to unfold in 2007 because I invested the time in catching the exhibition season, from beginning to end, as painful as it may be.

 

Well, with 2008 rapidly approaching, I’m already itching to size up this year’s defenses in the preseason. Here are a few units that I’m intrigued with and that I will be keeping a close eye on this summer:

 

Dallas CowboysPacman Jones could really be a difference-maker here provided he’s cleared to play, DeMarcus Ware is a durable beast who never misses games, and Zach Thomas will bring leadership to the table

 

Jacksonville Jaguars – New DC Gregg Williams will ask his dogs to attack this year, two new rookie DEs will boost the outside pass rush, and playmakers Rashean Mathis and Reggie Nelson are poised to anchor the secondary

 

Philadelphia Eagles – Pro-Bowler Asante Samuel is now on board and an underrated pass rush may create havoc for opposing QBs, so their turnover rate should skyrocket

 

Tampa Bay Bucs – Rookies Aqib Talib and Dexter Jackson bring much-needed youth to the secondary and return game respectively, Tanard Jackson is blossoming into a vicious hitter, and Monte Kiffin still knows how to coach ‘em up

 

Buffalo Bills – With Leodis McKelvin, Marcus Stroud, Kawika Mitchell, and Paul Posluszny, the Bills have a playmaker at every level, plus their conservative nature relies on stingy defense

 

San Francisco 49ersPatrick Willis is a pure-bred monster, Nate Clements is overpaid but solid, and the additions of Allen Rossum and Justin Smith are bound to put this group in a good spot in the weak NFC West

 

Carolina Panthers – Total hunch, but interesting to note that they didn’t make big plays defensively last season because opponents played it close to the vest against them and didn’t fear their offense

 

Dallas and Jacksonville are rather obvious, Philly and Tampa are perennially strong, and Buffalo, San Fran, and Carolina may have you scratching your head. But this seven-pack of defenses should be watched with an analytical eye from training camp through the preseason. My money is on all of them being serviceable fantasy defenses in 2008, if not top-notch ones.