Results from First Draft of 2008
My expert-league draft didn’t go exactly as I had planned. The competition was fierce, the RB crop got picked clean early, and I really slept on grabbing a backup QB. Fortunately, I landed a few studs at QB, WR, and TE, so I expect to be competitive.
This league is a no-PPR, no-waiver format, which means my team won’t change all season and my players won’t get any credit for receptions. I can’t post the entire draft because I was asked not to, but here’s a look at my team with some random thoughts. Also, this is the order in which I drafted them from the #12 spot.
Peyton Manning – I passed on Brady for Peyton because Harrison will be back and the Colts will be deadly in 2008.
Terrell Owens – TDs, TDs, TDs was my thought process with #81.
Jonathan Stewart – Carolina’s going to pound the rock all season long behind their beefed up O-line and I cornered the market on the Panther backfield with DeAngelo later on.
Plaxico Burress – If Plax can simply get healthy, ample TDs and plenty of big plays seem inevitable with a confident Manning throwing him the ball.
Julius Jones – I’m drinking the Julius Kool-Aid because Holmgren is hell-bent on getting Seattle’s running game humming in 2008 and Jones has to be a new man after leaving Dallas.
Kellen Winslow – This soldier has more value than Gates and Witten in my opinion because of his run-after-catch skills and his frequent targets in the red zone.
Javon Walker – This is a huge gamble due to his suspect knee, but JaMarcus has to throw to someone and Curry is a dog.
DeAngelo Williams – Insurance pick for Stewart, who’s coming off turf-toe surgery.
Nate Burleson – With Branch coming off a torn ACL and Engram ticked off with management, Burleson could be sneaky good based on his opportunity.
Vincent Jackson – I loved what he did in the 2007 postseason and Rivers actually made some large strides last season.
NYG Defense – Sacks anyone?
Sidney Rice – Sure, Berrian was brought into to be a big-play threat, but I’m intrigued by Rice’s size and sticky hands.
Dominic Rhodes – This was a hunch-based pick, as I suspect Addai will get hurt in 2008 due to his obvious softness.
Maurice Morris – Insurance pick for Jones, who’s never really carried a massive load in his career.
Ben Utecht – Sleeper alert since Cincy must get some production from their TEs in 2008.
Shaun Alexander – This late, why not?
Limas Sweed – My rookie man-crush figures to make an immediate splash in the red zone due to his physicality and size, something Hines and Santonio lack.
Joe Flacco – I’m an idiot for not adding a solid backup for Manning, but I like Flacco a lot and Baltimore’s going to use plenty of three-WR sets.
Jason Elam – Kicking in a dome for half the season will make him that much more accurate.
Drew Carter – In case Walker goes down, the field-stretching Carter could help.
Pierre Thomas – I’m not buying Deuce coming off double-knee surgery and Pierre blew up in Week Seventeen last season when given a chance.
Sebastian Janikowski – In a best-ball format, having two kickers seemed like a good idea.
Clearly, my stable of RBs is undesirable, but drafting a pair of RBs with your first two picks doesn’t always guarantee a championship. With that said, I bucked the trend in hopes that Manning, Owens, Burress, and Winslow can be weekly beasts for me. If Carolina and Seattle can get their running games turned around, I’ll be sitting pretty.
Ugh… Good luck with that squad! Manning is nice, but not the best Fantasy QB anymore, and certainly not better than Brady. Owens and Burress are great talents, and better have great seasons, cause the rest of your crew is iffy, to say the least. Very weak at RB. What’s with picking a rook 3rd overall? I don’t think Stewart is Adrian Peterson. Also, I would take Gates or Witten over Winslow at TE, but we’ll see. Winslow is a force and if he stays healthy may really have a big year.
Comment by Dave — May 14, 2008 @ 4:35 pm
Your comment on Joseph Addai caught my eye. I’d be interested in reading your take on what you are calling his ‘obvious softness.’ What don’t you like about him? Just curious.
The Patriots schedule looks pretty good, so I don’t know if I could have passed on Brady, but heck, you had your pick of the two best QB’s so you probably can’t go wrong. Hope Manning doesn’t get hurt though, for your sake.
Your receiving corp could be pretty respectable, and you’ve placed your running game in the hands of John Fox and Mike Holmgren … so it could be worse. I like the end of the draft selection of Pierre Thomas - maybe you’ll hit it lucky.
I kind of regard Janikowski as the John Daly of football, but that’s just me.
This no Waiver Wire format looks brutal. Hope you keep us updated as the season progresses. Good Luck!
Comment by PackFan — May 14, 2008 @ 11:19 pm
Just read your 2008 SOS article … so I have a better understanding of where you’re coming from with Addai. Food for thought.
Also, I noted your draft sort of mirrors your article in terms of players you selected, and when you selected them.
Comment by PackFan — May 14, 2008 @ 11:47 pm
Curious about the starting lineup. Do you have a flex? How many RBs and WRs do you start? A couple things here look just like the draft I made. I too took Peyton over Brady. History shows that guys regress after having monster years. Harrison, Gonzo, Wayne, Addai and Clark are all there and healthy. Peyton should blow things up. I slept on a RB in order to get a top wideout, and jumped on Kellen early to insure me a top TE. Drafted my backup QB in round 29(IDP league) Why jump on a guy who you will honestly start 1 week. I think your season hangs on Jones. If he is successful and Duckett doesnt steal his TDs, you should be pretty solid. I picked up Rhodes too, and real late. Addai will get tweaked for a few games and Rhodes knows the system. No brainer there. Good luck and keep us informed during the season.
Comment by JBeau — May 15, 2008 @ 8:28 am
Addai just strikes me as whimpy….he missed a lot of series last season grabbing or rubbing various maladies. He’s a helluva goal-line back, but I just don’t think he’s as dependable as everyone thinks he is. QB 2RBs 3WRs TE K D is the format, which is why I didn’t sell out for second-tier runners early.
Comment by Zap — May 15, 2008 @ 9:19 am
Cornering the market with the Carolina RBs was smart. SA can get signed and be a decent goal line back. Addai gets hurt and you are golden. Only problem I see is Jones losing Goal line carries to Duckett who is a pretty decent goal line back. You are looking good at WR though. I got a good feeling about Sweed.
Comment by JBeau — May 15, 2008 @ 9:23 am
Yea, my approach was to stockpile some upside receivers in the middle, late rounds for weeks that they go off. I honestly think Duckett will be used more as a fullback than anything, so I’m hopeful on Julius being like LenDale White last season - 1,000 yards 6-10 TDs….that’s all I need from him. And really I targeted the Carolina and Seattle backfields because they both want to emphasize the run this year. We’ll see, it’s still soooooo early.
Comment by Zap — May 15, 2008 @ 9:36 am
“Kellen Winslow – This soldier has more value than Gates and Witten in my opinion because of his run-after-catch skills and his frequent targets in the red zone.”
I like Winslow and his draft value (round available vs. fantasy ability) might make him a better pick than Gates and Witten. But I disagree with the YAC and red zone targets comments.
2007 stats:
Gates: 23 RZT, 4.2 YAC
Witten: 17 RZT, 4.1 YAC
Winslow: 17 RZT, 4.4 YAC
I just don’t see Winslow as a much bigger YAC guy or more active in the red zone. He wasn’t in 2006 either but given the changes at qb for him and Witten, plus Rivers’ development for Gates since then, the 2006 stats are less relevant.
Winslow did gain more yards per reception than Witten (13.5 to 11.9), but not because of slightly better YAC, but because of much better YBC (yards before the catch) - more simply, deeper patterns. He was 9.1 yards downfield before catching the ball to Witten’s 7.8. This was a combination of a new OC with a different offense, a new QB with a better arm, and a new OL giving QB more time to wait on the receivers getting further downfield (Winslow’s 2006 stats for YBC/YAC were 5.8/4.0 - he was running much shorter routes in 2006, or at least being thrown to sooner).
Winslow in the 6th is a good pick and I’d prefer that to Gates or Witten in the 3rd or 4th. Just not for the reasons you state.
Comment by Former Army Person — May 15, 2008 @ 10:06 am
No problem Army Person, we can agree to disagree….but I made that claim not based on previous numbers but on my assumptions for 2008. Gates is coming off toe surgery and the entire NFL is well aware of Witten’s importance to the Cowboys. My feeling is that Winslow’s use in Cleveland will continue to be as downfield playmaker. And after watching every single Browns’ game last season (and every NFL game for that matter), it’s clear that Winslow is always on Chudzinski’s radar inside the 20 when teams roll coverage to Braylon. Thanks for posting though, as all of you’re points are valid and insightful.
Comment by Zap — May 15, 2008 @ 2:36 pm
I dont like missing out on stud running backs. simple rule in fantasy football. and you broke it. your weak at running back, real weak. this is the first time ive seen manning over brady in a seasonal league.. not sure where you got that idea from.
Comment by chewbacca218 — May 23, 2008 @ 5:50 pm
I got that idea from thinking independently. The beauty of fantasy is you create your own rankings. One massive year from Brady doesn’t mean I’m buying what he’s selling. And when 11 RBs fall off the board in front of you, adjusting your strategy pays dividends.
Comment by Zap — May 28, 2008 @ 3:42 pm