May 1, 2008
I am in eight leagues right now and in exactly half of them, Carlos Quentin was on the free agency list. Early in the season, I understood that he wasn’t owned, because Jermaine Dye and Nick Swisher were everyday OFs and Jim Thome was the full time DH, which left only one job open, assumed to be for Jerry Owens when he returned from injury. Carlos Quentin had something to say about that, and he now is hitting just about .300 and he is tied for the AL lead in HRs with seven, which has relegated Owens to AAA.
The big question is how long will Quentin keep hitting? I’m sure he is owned in some leagues simply because he is hot and an owner is hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. I prefer to look to his previous body of work to make a more intelligent choice as to his chances.
The first area we will look at will be the power: Quentin played in Arizona two years ago and had over 150 ABs which resulted in 9 HRs, which was a HR about every 18 ABs, which is not bad for a younger player. In 2005, he was in AAA and he had a HR every 21 ABs, but in 2004 in A ball, he had a HR every 16 ABs. The power does not appear to be flukish.
We also have to look at his overall hitting as well, since he is hitting almost .300. Batting averages can be a tricky thing in the minors, so I prefer to look at a hitter’s discipline level of BB:K ratio. Right now, Quentin has 14 BB to 15 Ks, which is on par with his three minor league seasons where he was a tick under a 1:1 ratio. That leads me to believe that he will do quite well as a hitter in his major league career.
I am prepared to say that Quentin can continue the hitting level that he has had in April, so if he is a free agent, I would add him immediately. If you can pluck him in a trade without giving up much, that would be a good move as well.