Schedule-Based Strategy: Selling Out for Vikings and Saints
The 2008 NFL schedule was released this week, as you likely know by now. I spent a few hours looking over it from a strictly fantasy perspective, with particular attention paid to those all-important playoff weeks of Week 14-16. I do this every year because I’m a first believer in foresight and preparation.
Granted, it’s blatant oversimplification to look at three weeks of a player’s schedule and draft him for the suspected gaudy numbers he’ll produce during your playoff run. Injuries and unexpected developments always pop up, of course. But doesn’t everybody want their elite guys to have a cakewalk when the money’s on the line?
Two teams absolutely jumped off the page at me as having cream-puff opponents during the 2008 fantasy playoffs. Even better, both of those fortunate squads have several dynamic skill players on their respective rosters – players I’ll definitely be targeting come draft season.
Yes, those emerging Minnesota Vikings and those high-powered New Orleans Saints will be on my wish-list. The Vikes have the luxury of playing Detroit, Arizona, and Atlanta down the stretch. The Saints are blessed with late-season matchups against Atlanta, Chicago, and Detroit. Both Atlanta and Detroit were wretched and embarrassing defensively in 2007. Arizona’s defense perennially operates like a revolving door. And Chicago’s defense (and entire team for that matter) is clearly on the decline.
As a result of my simplistic yet invaluable investigation, the likes of Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Sidney Rice, David Patten, and even Chester Taylor have officially skyrocketed up the rankings in my mental rolodex. These are all guys I wouldn’t have a problem drafting anyway because they’re all nice producers. Yet, now that I know their chances of exploding at the most competitive, crucial, and profitable time of the season are increased, I’ll make it a point to lean towards them (and their teams) when assembling my fantasy rosters this summer.
If you’re a serious competitor like myself, you should follow my lead and have a conscientious gander at the schedule. It’s a heady strategy you can’t overlook and it’s an approach your competition most likely will ignore. Grab a giant cup of Starbucks, throw some DMB on the stereo, use FantasyGuru.com’s points allowed tool, and determine for yourself which teams you think will roll in Weeks 14-16 based on the defenses they’ll be facing. My loot is on the Vikings and the Saints. Where’s yours?
On a side note, I’d love to know who was responsible for giving the Evil Empire AKA New England such an insanely favorable slate of games in 2008. It just doesn’t smell right to me. But that’s just the conspiracy theorist in me speaking. Ignore him.
The Pats got such an easy schedule because they threw the Super Bowl in order to atone for spygate. How’s that for a conspiracy theory?
Comment by Gump — April 18, 2008 @ 2:07 pm
Wow, I know Giants fans won’t like that comment! But thanks for putting in your two cents.
Comment by Zap — April 18, 2008 @ 2:16 pm
I appreciate the heads up. I employed this strategy in my mid season trades last year. Worked out great for me. Traded for Jamal Lewis and reaped the rewards.
Comment by JBeau — April 18, 2008 @ 2:34 pm
That’s my job, JBeau. Glad to help!
Comment by Zap — April 18, 2008 @ 4:07 pm
Great post man! Little details like this is what wins championships.
Comment by bandit — April 19, 2008 @ 9:00 pm
I like to take a look at the fantasy playoff schedule as well. I agree that it’s a nice tidbit to have in your pocket on draft day.
Another one is looking at who has easy schedules the first 3 weeks of the season. Having a good idea of who’s got an opportunity to rush out of the gate quickly comes in handy when people panic after 3 or 4 weeks and start looking for trades. Nothing like trading a guy after his best 3 game stretch of the season.
Comment by Tom — April 21, 2008 @ 11:57 am
You got it right Tom. A guy like Plaxico was great trade bait last year. He started out on fire, and then stunk it up every other week. I know, cause I traded for him and got a great week, followed by quite a few stinkers. But I traded Ronnie Brown for him, so it was all good.
Comment by JBeau — April 21, 2008 @ 12:01 pm
Yes, I agree. One of the first things I probably look at is the playoff schedule (weeks 14 - 16). I pay some attention to the opening weeks, but it is usually kind of hard to get a feel for a team because few teams are playing great football anyway, so I just kind of hope that if there are a few teams I looked at as having a week playoff schedule that the players of those teams are putting up big numbers by the time the playoffs start. The one thing that I believe is critical in getting off to a fast start is watching as much pre-season football as I can. There are always a few teams that look like they are playing mid-season football in late August. Not big on Minnesota. To many questions on that team to make a big investment regardless of their week schedule. I would look at New England, Cleveland and to some extent Houston before the Vikings. The Saints I like and the Rams have a very nice play-off schedule as well but the Rams would be a team I would have to watch in the pre-season to see if they are over their hangover from last year.
Comment by Wiliam — April 21, 2008 @ 12:28 pm
In what league exactly was Reggie Bush a “nice producer” last year?
A PPR league? Major underachiever…
Comment by Greg — April 24, 2008 @ 9:09 pm
Of course in a PPR league…73/417 as a receiver is nothing to scoff at. He disappointed between the tackles, but if you used him, like I did, as a 2nd RB you should have been fine before he got nicked.
Comment by Zap — April 25, 2008 @ 8:32 am