Think in terms of the mean

In junior high, I remember learning that the mean was simply the mathematical average. In the world of fantasy baseball, the mean is the concept that should allow you to sleep easy at night when David Ortiz is on your team and hitting well under .100. If Ortiz hits .300 for the season, you should be getting a .330 hitter from May through September.

Unless a player is going into serious decline or is in the infancy of a career, you can generally assume that most players will catch up to their career norms after a slow start. By the same token, a player that is absoulutely on fire for the first month will see a market correction over the course of a season.

Panic is often the emotion that many fantasy players demonstrate when their players are crawling out of the gate. Here is what I suggest for fantasy owners:

1) If your players are slumping, try to get a bench player to step in for the short term, then as soon as your player starts to heat up, get him right back in the lineup and let the good times roll!

2) If your opponents have slumping players, try to make a reasonable trade offer that might make them consider making such a deal. I urge you not to make a ridiculous offer so you do not raise emotions amongst owners that will make them ignore any future offers you might make.

3) Keep reminding yourself that every slump turns into a hot streak, so stay the course!

On some of my teams I have David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, and Erik Bedard. I am not worried about any of them and I know that they will be team leaders as the season moves on.

Category: Fantasy Guru Daily


2 Responses

  1. Jesse says:

    As a loyal GURU subscriber you guys have me baffled as what happened to your baseball coverage. The past few years have seemed like you care but now it is the most obvious assessments and “insight” that make me wonder why I subscribed early for the next year of football. At least with the new web page you are really hiding the baseball info. Keep to your guns and stick with football. You might just want to weed out this baseball stuff. Or I could post a blog or 100 for you. Still a reigning FFBall Champ. Trying to 3-peat in baseball.

  2. Staff says:

    Thanks for chiming in and offering your opinion on what we should do with our company.

    We’re equally baffled that you’re baffled. The content is as good or better than last year, and we’re doing more than last year, including monthly rankings for the rest of the season on a regular basis (first installment next week). The link to the page is as equally “hidden” on the top of the main page and in the Subscriber News section as last year. Also, probably the best answer to why you subscribed early is that you saved 17% off the normal price.

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