Think in terms of the mean

In junior high, I remember learning that the mean was simply the mathematical average. In the world of fantasy baseball, the mean is the concept that should allow you to sleep easy at night when David Ortiz is on your team and hitting well under .100. If Ortiz hits .300 for the season, you should be getting a .330 hitter from May through September.

Unless a player is going into serious decline or is in the infancy of a career, you can generally assume that most players will catch up to their career norms after a slow start. By the same token, a player that is absoulutely on fire for the first month will see a market correction over the course of a season.

Panic is often the emotion that many fantasy players demonstrate when their players are crawling out of the gate. Here is what I suggest for fantasy owners:

1) If your players are slumping, try to get a bench player to step in for the short term, then as soon as your player starts to heat up, get him right back in the lineup and let the good times roll!

2) If your opponents have slumping players, try to make a reasonable trade [...]

About Matthew Camp

Matthew Camp

Camp has been a fantasy football player since 1997, when he remembers using the box scores from the New York Daily News.

About Matthew Camp

About Joseph Dolan

Joe Dolan

Joe is a son of the video-game age - his extensive knowledge of NFL rosters dates back to the early 1990s.


About Joseph Dolan

About Tom Brolley

Tom Brolley

Brolley was blessed with the mobility of Peyton Manning, but lacked his encyclopedic football knowledge and rocket arm.

About Tom Brolley

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    Here are the results of the 12-team PPR 3rd round reversal NFFC 20-round draft I participated in last night in New York City. I was pretty pleased with the draft and felt I was generally ahead of the curve. While I did have to pay a premium for some players early, I did get solid value for others later. In a high-stakes draft, you have to be very proactive a […]
    John Hansen
  • 8/24 projection update August 23, 2014
    Update:  There is no MNF game this week, so we’ll be doing a full projections/PDF/excel file update later this afternoon. You can generate a printable custom cheat sheet today that is as of Sunday evening. Note: If you use the 1-page printable feature it does print out a pretty solid cheat sheet, updated today, it just spills into a second page. To access th […]
    John Hansen
  • 8/17 projection update August 17, 2014
    Just a quick note today for those drafting (Sunday, August 17, 2014) that I have updated projections taking into account the Friday and Saturday games. The problem with doing this is our PDF cheat sheets and excel files are now behind what the projections and the custom cheat sheet have. When we do our main projection updates early and late in the week, it’s […]
    John Hansen