Rookie DL to Target

 

Though DE/DT is not generally a productive fantasy position for rookies, there have been a few notable exceptions. For every Jamal Anderson there’s a Jevon Kearse; for every Dewayne Robertson there’s a Dana Stubblefield. You’ve heard of a “diamond in the rough,” well rookie DL drafting is akin to finding a diamond (mine) after your tee-shot slices 200 feet east. Here’s an early look:

Potential Impact DT that could start Week One:
Glenn Dorsey (DT, KC) – Should beat out Hard Knocks stars Tank Tyler and Turk McBride. This would actually help me immensely as I get them confused every time I try to rank them…

 

Sedrick Ellis (DT, NO) – The oft-injured Brian Young and the oft-tired Hollis Thomas are the incumbent starters inside. Both will play key roles. Both have an upside that pales in comparison to the explosive Ellis.

Andre Fluellen (DT, Det) – Fluellen might have been among the top 10 picks had he played at Florida State when the players still received, um, coaching. DT incumbents are Cory Redding (he of the huge 2006 and even bigger contract in 2007) and FA acquisition Chuck Darby. I like Fluellen to start at some point in September over Darby. 

 

Marcus Harrison (DT, Chi) – Could get a chance to play “if” Pro Bowl DT Tommie Harris suffers an injury. Harrison is another guy with great ability, but as of now he’s simply auditioning to fill the role previously occupied by DT Tank Johnson in Chicago.

Kentwan Balmer (DT/DE, SF) – Another 3-4 DE with a shot to start but don’t expect big numbers in the early weeks.

Potential Impact DT in a fight for playing time:
Trevor Laws (DT, Phi) – I assume he’ll move back inside after playing LDE in a 3-4 at Notre Dame as a Senior. There’s probably a bias involved here as I watched Laws play about 45 games, but I think he’s a 10-year pro and one of the best run defenders in the draft.

Philip Merling (DE/DT, Mia) – Reportedly a first-round talent (I’ve seen him play just parts of games so I can’t speak intelligently on his potential in the 3-4), Merling should qualify as a DT in most fantasy leagues this season.

Jason Jones (DT/DE, Ten) – Jones could easily beat out undersized DE Bryce Fisher on the left side. He’d be much more valuable if he qualifies at DT for those of you that must specify positions.

 

Frank Okam (DT, Hou) – Reportedly scored a 39 on his Wonderlic exam at the combine, so if he’s ever converted to Quarterback or Defensive Coordinator, you should probably sign him immediately. Has a battle on his hands with 2^nd Year DT Amobi Okoye (a sure starter) and DT Travis Johnson (41 solos last season/2005 1^st Round selection). I like Okam, but he has a tough road to hoe.

Kendall Langford and Lionel Dotson (DTs, Mia) will also have a shot at playing time as The Tuna tears down the house in Miami but, like Merling, both will probably play as 3-4 DE, the scoring equivalent of the FB position on defense. Langford has the early edge before they put on the pads.

Harrison, Balmer, Laws, Merling, Jones, Okam, Langford, and Dotson are all FA material unless you have a separate rookie draft (Dynasty Leagues).

 

Potential Impact DE that could start Week One:
Vernon Gholston (DE, NYJ) – Gholston will likely be listed as an OLB in your league, but if he’s not, make sure he’s your No. 1 rookie selection on the D-Line.

Chris Long (DE, Stl) – Fairly obvious selection. Long will find a way to get to the ball carrier so any struggles as a pass-rusher in his rookie season should be offset. He’s the safest and potentially the most productive choice among rookie DL.

 

Derrick Harvey (DE, Jac) – He won’t beat out DE Paul Spicer; he could beat out DE Reggie Hayward, or at least seriously push him for 4^th quarter playing time (and, as a result, the coveted garbage-time sacks).

Potential Impact DE in a fight for playing time:

Lawrence Jackson (DE, Sea) – I don’t think he’ll beat out Darryl Tapp for the DE spot opposite Pro Bowler Patrick Kerney, but Tapp has been a bit of a fantasy disappointment other than his 4-sack outburst last season vs. a Ram’s O-Line that routinely made lemonade out of DL lemons.

 

Quentin Groves (DE, Jac) – As mentioned yesterday, I like Groves quite a bit, but he’s likely to begin camp as the team’s 4^th DE. He appears to be a bit of a head case but there are plenty of head cases that still know how to get to the Quarterback.

Calais Campbell (DE, Ari) – I’m not a fan, but he is 6’8” and in a great spot with 2007 sensation Calvin Pace leaving for the bright lights of the big city. RDE Bert Berry has played just 27 games in the last three seasons while LDE Antonio Smith showed flashes of brilliance last season but is inconsistent.

Chris Ellis (DE, Buf) – Chris Kelsay and Aaron Schobel have the DE spots on lockdown and quality backup Ryan Denney is also ahead of Ellis on the pre-camp depth chart. The Bills liked him enough to use a 3^rd round pick though so he’s worth watching as a situational pass-rusher.

Jeremy Thompson (DE, GB) – Scouts question Thompson’s ability to care about football and remember: trying hard is a skill as important as quick feet, strength, and technique..

 

William Hayes (DE, Ten) – Situational pass rusher that somehow became a fourth-round selection. He’ll be in direct competition with DE Bryce Fisher and fellow rookie Jason Jones. Bet on someone other than Hayes.

There’s no reason to draft Ellis, Thompson, or Hayes in most IDP leagues. Jackson, Groves and Campbell are interesting flier picks as the tail end.

 

 

 

Possible Early Impact IDP Rounds 2-4:

Linebackers:
Dan Connor (LB, Car) – Assuming he wouldn’t end up on a completely stacked LB roster I felt he was the No. 1 IDP option entering the draft. Presto!

 

Curtis Lofton (LB, Atl) – Meet the Falcons new two-down MLB (allowing veteran LB Keith Brooking to finally return to the weak side where he belongs).

 

Jordon Dizon (LB, Det) – Stephen Boyd 2.0. Dizon in the middle and Eight-Solo Ernie Sims on the weak side is a distinct possibility this fall.

Philip Wheeler (LB, Ind) – Should be a good battle with TyJuan Hagler for the final starting spot at LB in the Colts Cover 2 scheme.

 

Bruce Davis (OLB, Pit) – A DE at UCLA, Davis is all football player but the Steelers appear set on the outside with 2^nd year LB LaMarr Woodley and break-out veteran James Harrison manning the OLB spots. 

Also: Xavier Adibi could find a spot in Houston if the Texans can get creative with WLB Morlon Greenwood’s role; Stanford Keglar (who can really run) has a chance to make an impact in Tennessee, a team that’s been one LB short for a few years  

Defensive Backs:
Brandon Flowers (CB, KC) – Opportunity (Hard) Knocks in KC for the physical Flowers who could receive immediate playing time. He’ll probably get torched, but it’s time for a youth movement on the corners (one 30-something CB down, one to go) in KC and Flowers will support the run as well. Chief competition comes from 2^nd year CB Dmitri Patterson and Tyron Brackenridge.

Chevis Jackson (CB, Atl) – Could be a young starting tandem this season in the ATL with 2^nd year CB Chris Houston and possibly the rookie Jackson watching guys like Steve Smith and Marques Colston celebrating in the end zone for 16 weeks.

 

Terrell Thomas (CB, NYG) – Another physical CB in a good situation as veteran Sam Madison (who can still play) will miss some time at some point over the 16-game season. Then again, Thomas wasn’t exactly Cal Ripken, Jr. during his college days at USC.

Quintin Demps (S, Phi) – Contingent on a (probable) injury to the aging All Pro Brian Dawkins. Eagles S Quintin Mickell is better than you think and J.R. Reed isn’t bad but the speedy Demps has a shot here.

 

Justin King (CB, Stl) – At least a 2nd round talent (drafted in the 4th at 101 overall). King can run and has faced top competition. CB Tye Hill and Fahkir Brown probably have the starting spots nailed down at this point but King has the talent to compete. 

Also: CB Tracy Porter will eye an opening in secondary-starved New Orleans; Patrick Lee is one mandatory AARP meeting away from subbing for Al Harris or Charles Woodson on the corner in Green Bay.

Late Round Steals on tap for tomorrow…

2008 IDP Draft Journal

 

I used to love draft day. My friends and I would get together every year before it became annoyingly hip to do so. There was even a Mark Carrier draft day dance celebration in 1990, followed by the less effective Stan Thomas follow-up dance in ’91.

(Unfortunately, I grew up near quite a few Bears fans). Today, the NFL Draft is the most over analyzed day of the year, but as a service to you, the reader, and to me, I’ve ignored all mock drafts this year (seriously) and I’m embarking on this Draft Journal with an open mind, a 6-pack of an on-sale Belgian Wheat Ale called “Shock-Top,” a bag of Tostitos, Mrs. Renfro’s Habernero Mango Salsa (Hot), and CJ Burgers and Reduced Fat Ruffles on tap for tonight. Also some sweet corn on the cob from Florida, which is odd, because I live in Indiana. Anyway, here we go…

 

Pre-Draft Prep
Basement, two TVs with the draft on the HD big screen and a show TBD on the other TV that I’m told will become obsolete in 2009 because of something called “Digital Television.” There’s also a giant bag of lemonheads within my reach.

 

2:30 – Love these polls: How will Chris Long’s career compare to his father Howie’s? Other than Firestorm, I think Howie has the obvious edge.

 

Suzie Kolber’s interviewing Chris, Howie, and Howie’s wife. I’d pay at least $70 just to see Joe Namath walk by right now.

 

I actually enjoy most of the personalities on today’s Draft Panel: Steve Young, Chris Mortensen, Mel Kiper, Jr., Keyshawn Johnson, Cris Carter, Ron Jaworski, and Kirk Herbstreit…Chris Berman is also back to run the show and Todd McShay might get some air time.

 

2:35 – Berman: “We won’t have to wait very ‘Long’” Oh wait, I get it.  I wonder if he’ll make a Hotel California reference over the next five hours? Anyone give me 2-1?

Bad news: I just noticed an orange on the carton of this new beer.

 
2:37 – Huh…always thought Boise State OT Ryan Clady was white. There’s goes that scouting report.

 

2:45 – Herbstreit just offered that maybe the Secret Service should look into Darren McFadden’s past. Or you could draft someone else, whatever works. In other news, Joe Flacco resembles the dude that played Jesus in High Crimes.

2:50 – Before we begin, here’s my first look at 49ers Draft Day Moments:

1994 – SF trades up to get Notre Dame DT Bryant Young at #7 overall and use the 28^th pick on FSU FB William Floyd.
Personal Happiness Level: A.
Final Result: A+
1995 – The defending Super Bowl champion 49ers steal J.J. Stokes with the 10^th overall pick.
Personal Happiness Level: Can’t be accurately explained on any scale known to man.
Final Result: D-

2:56 – Matt Ryan explains he was raised by his parents, so that should help him if he ends up in Atlanta. Makes sense to me, I was raised by my parents, and I enjoyed my nine years in Atlanta, too. I wonder if the Falcons can use a 35-year old slow white WR?

 

2:58 – They’re showing Jake Long highlights in anticipation of the official No. 1 announcement. For some reason they never showed him blocking OSU DE Vernon Gholston. Steve Young calls Long a metaphor for the Dolphins future. What about Ted Ginn?

 

Quickly, my favorite players at each position.
QB: Chad Henne
RB: Felix Jones
WR: Devin Thomas
TE: Fred Davis
OL: Mandarich
DL: Glenn Dorsey
LB: Dan Connor
DB: Not Tom Zbikowski
Special Teamer: Tom Zbikowski

3:00 – Berman makes his first official Long and Long reference. Probably the last, too…

3:02 – I preferred Pete Rozelle

3:03 – Jake Long goes #1 overall to the Dolphins. He’ll be protecting the 2009 1^st Overall Pick’s blind side for years to come. On an unrelated note, I wonder where Robert Gallery’s watching the draft?

3:07 – The Rams are on the clock and Young refers to them as “the same old Rams” in a fantastic veiled reference to former Niners S Tim McDonald’s “Same old sorry a—Rams” comment after another mid 90s beating. I miss those days. 
Young also used the word “esoteric.”

3:12 – St. Louis selects Virginia DE Chris Long.

IDP Analysis: Probably can’t go wrong with this pick, and you have to like him teaming with last year’s first-round pick DT Adam Carriker. Long will be my No. 2 ranked rookie DL when the column debuts this week.

3:16 – The first time I’ve ever seen new Falcons HC Mike Smith’s face.

3:17 – Wait a second, Mike Vick’s in prison?

3:19 – The Falcons make BC QB Matt Ryan the No. 3 overall pick. Now they’re just 1 WR, 1 TE, 3-4 O-Linemen, 1 DE, 1 DT, 2 S and 1 CB away from contention.

ESPN SportsNation tells us the fans give this pick an F, which is worse than Kiper’s A.

3:26 – The Raiders are on the clock. There’s really no chance they pass on McFadden, right? 

3:27 – Oakland selects Arkansas RB Darren McFadden. There’s a good chance they just got the best player in the draft, plus he can play QB and the Raiders can finally move Jamarcus Russell to Guard.

3:30 – JAWS informs us that Jamarcus Russell is in an “embryonic development stage” so I guess the move to Guard isn’t official after all.

 

3:32 – Beer still isn’t cold enough. Man that’s bad planning on my part. In other news, TV #2 will feature the Angels/Tigers game. KC is on the clock…

3:34 – Looks like it’s going to be Glenn Dorsey though we’re told the Saints might have a deal on the table.

3:35 – Dorsey is wearing a watch the size of a small scale on his left wrist. Must have had a Summer job at LSU. The Chiefs, obviously awed by his taste in jewelry, nab Dorsey with the 5^th overall pick.

 

3:36 – Herbstreit believes Dorsey is the best DT to come out of college in his 13 years covering the sport, which I take as a direct shot at former 49ers 1^st round DT Reggie McGrew.

3:37 – I don’t think Dorsey knows the name of his new GM or head coach, but he does seem like a good guy, even using the phrase, “I’m happy as all outdoors.”
I’m officially a Glenn Dorsey fan after that gem.

IDP Analysis: Dorsey won’t be higher than No. 3 on the initial IDP rookie DL rankings, but he’s certainly a DT to look at if your league specifies along the DL.

3:41 – The Jets are on the clock (always the best moment of the draft) and it should probably be OSU DE Vernon Gholston, who had five tackles, four for loss, and one sack vs. Jake Long, who, coincidentally, will face the Jets two times a year.

3:44 – The Jets select Gholston at #6 overall, much to the delight of the partisan Jets crowd. Here come some more Jake Long highlights…

3:45 – Gholston shows his speed on film when he runs down PSU QB Anthony Morelli who surprisingly isn’t in the Green Room with the rest of the top picks.

IDP Analysis: Gholston will debut as my No. 2 rookie DL though a move to OLB in the Jets 3-4 seems likely.

TV #2 Update – It appears to be an 80s throwback theme on the Fox set as Jeannie Zelasko is sporting an impressive mane this afternoon. Google Melanie Griffith – Working Girl if you need a visual…

3:49 – The Patriots are on the clock with the 49ers pick. I’m so mad right now I can barely see.

3:51 – We have a TRADE!!! It’d be great if it’s the 49ers trading back up for this selection. Alas, it appears to be the Saints.

3:52 – The Saints select USC DT Sedrick Ellis with the 7^th pick.

IDP Analysis: Ellis joins FA acquisition DE Bobby McCray, DTs Brian Young and Hollis Thomas, perennial disappointment Charles Grant, and the enigmatic Will Smith along the Saints DL. Ellis will probably debut as my No. 4 rookie DL.

3:54 – Another trade as Jacksonville has moved up from #26 to the Ravens #8 selection and is now on the clock. Also, the Patriots acquired an extra 3^rd round pick from the Saints in the trade mentioned above (the Saints received the Patriots 5^th). Great deal for New England - moving down just three spots to nab a 3^rd for a 5^th. Same old sorry a– Saints…

4:02 – Jacksonville (from Baltimore) selects Florida DE Derrick Harvey at No. 8. Kiper thinks it’s a reach. Harvey is the 5^th DL selected in the first eight picks.

IDP Analysis: Not sure Harvey will debut as my No. 5 DL in the rookie rankings as I have two other guys in mind depending on their final destinations.

4:05 – The Bengals are on the clock with the 9^th pick. Also, it appears the Ravens received two 3^rd round and one fourth round pick from Jacksonville to move down from #8 to #26. Advantage – Ravens.

When’s the last time someone typed that sentence?

4:07 – The Bengals nab USC LB Keith Rivers at No. 9 overall. Rivers probably should have considered wearing some shorts over his tights during his USC Pro Day.

IDP Analysis: Rivers will likely debut as my No. 2 rated rookie LB.

4:13 – The Patriots, with the 10^th overall pick, select Tennessee’s LB Jerod Mayo. Hopefully he can block Justin Tuck.

IDP Analysis: I love this pick and though Mayo will debut at No. 4 or No. 5 overall in my rookie rankings he’ll surely move up as the season progresses.

4:16 – Berman used a pun.

 

4:18 – The Bills select CB Leodis McKelvin from Troy with the 12^th overall pick.

IDP Analysis: McKelvin could debut anywhere from No. 1 to No. 5 on my IDP rookie list but he definitely has a chance to play early with pedestrian CB Jabari Greer his main competition.

4:23 – The Broncos use the 12^th pick on Boise State OT Ryan Clady. Kiper says he needs to get tougher…hopefully Jay Cutler isn’t listening.

The Panthers are on the clock…

4:28 – Carolina selects Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart. He’ll reportedly be healthy enough for training camp which is always a great thing to hear about your new RB.

The Bears are on the clock. If they had the next six picks there’s a chance they’d return to the Super Bowl this decade

4:36 – The Bears select Vanderbilt OT Chris Williams with the 14^th pick. Probably a good time to go upstairs for another Belgian White (beer – didn’t want anyone to get the wrong idea).

 

 The Lions are on the clock and WRs Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas, and, I think Yatil Green just woke up…

4:43 – The Chiefs, as a result of a trade with Detroit, are now on the clock…

4:44 – The Chiefs select Virginia OG Brandon Albert with the 15^th pick. KC is now at 5,000,000-1 to win the AFC in 2008.

4:48 – I’m not positive, but I think Under Armour is somehow associated with the NFL.

4:53 – The Cardinals select Tennessee State CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie with the 16^th pick. If he’s related to Antonio Cromartie, I’m sold. There’s a question about his quality of competition in college, but Rodgers-Cromartie looks very fast in his highlights, though it does concern me that everyone’s wearing flags around their waists…

IDP Analysis: Since I’ve never seen him play, I have no idea where Rodgers-Cromartie will debut in my rookie rankings, though he did seem more physical than the rest of those guys playing intramurals in his highlight reel.

The Lions are back on the clock. Someone call Reidel Anthony.

4:58 – Detroit makes BC OT Gosder Cherilus the 17^th overall pick. He and massive OT Aaron Gibson should anchor this Lions line for years to come.

The Ravens are on the clock

5:03 – As a result of the trade with the Texans, the Ravens use the 18^th pick on Delaware QB Jim Caviezel. At over 6’6” Joe Flacco can throw the ball 74 yards in the air. He also died for our sins, so we should probably root for him.

 

The Eagles are on the clock

5:11 – The Panthers trade up to Philly’s spot to select Pittsburgh OT Jeff Otah. Gotta love these extended runs on O-Linemen.

The Buccaneers are on the clock. I’ve eaten ¾ of a bag of Tostitos and ½ a bottle of Mango Habernero salsa.

 

The Eagles received a 2^nd and 4^th round pick in this draft and the Panthers 2009 1^st round pick. For Jeff Otah? “Same old sorry a- - Panthers…”

5:20 – The Buc’s select Kansas CB Aqib Talib, who will debut somewhere between No. 2 and No. 4 on my rookie IDP list. There are character issues swirling around Talib, but I had plenty of roommates in college that enjoyed herbal medicines so I’m not sure what the problem is. 

The Redskins are on the clock.

 

5:29 – Yet another trade and the Falcons are on the clock. Does Vick have another brother?

5:30 – With the 21^st pick of the NFL Draft, the Falcons select Sam Baker, OT, USC. That’s three Trojans in the first 21 picks, pretty much par for the course these days. I hope more O-Linemen are selected because these highlights are scintillating TV…

The Cowboys are on the clock and have two of the next seven picks.

5:34 – ESPN’s Ed Werder informs us the Cowboys don’t believe there’s a receiver that can help them more than 57-year old WR Terry Glenn. Thanks to a live look-in we learn that MSU WR Devin Thomas hates Ed Werder.

5:38 – I have to tell you, as a lifelong Cowboys hater, I really hope my No. 1 RB Felix Jones doesn’t land in Dallas’ lap as the perfect compliment to Marion the Barbarian in the backfield.

5:39 – Dallas picks Arkansas RB Felix Jones with the 22^nd pick. Beer me.

5:44 – Pittsburgh selects Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall, who just took a giant pay-cut to leave Champagne and HC Ron Zook. Two of the five best players in the draft just went off the board.

The Titans are on the clock and TV #2 features the Lakers and Nuggets.

5:50 – The Titans use the 24^th pick to select East Carolina RB Chris Johnson. Meanwhile, Lendale White just passed on his 4^th hamburger at Fat Mo’s in Nashville.  

The Seahawks are on the clock.

5:58 – Dallas trades up (two spots) and Seattle moves down to #28 overall. Dallas is on the clock.

5:59 – Please don’t pick Devin Thomas. Please don’t pick Devin Thomas…

6:00 – Dallas selects South Florida CB Mike Jenkins. Since he’s not Devin Thomas, this pleases me.

6:01 – Mort informs us (me?) that Cowboys CB Anthony Henry is probably moving to Safety. That’s like 9 picks and 27 missed tackles in 2008.

The Houston Texans, from Jacksonville, through Baltimore, are on the clock.

6:06 – Another O-Tackle and more great highlights! Houston selects Virginia Tech OT Duane Brown.

San Diego is on the clock. They might want to look into a RB that won’t sit out the biggest game of his life next January…

 

6:10 – San Diego selects Arizona CB Antoine Cason. The Chargers don’t pick again until Round 5.

IDP Analysis: Cason should step into the nickel CB role and will move all over the rookie rankings in the pre-season. I like Cason more than the two small-college CB selected ahead of him but that’s due largely to my familiarity with his body of work.

The Seahawks are back on the clock.

6:16 – Seattle selects USC DE Lawrence Jackson. That’s four Trojans from the defensive side of the ball. I have one word for you: STANFORD.

IDP Analysis: Jackson will have to beat out DE Darryl Tapp to make a fantasy impact.

6:18 – Keyshawn refers to Lofa Tatupu as Losa Tatuffa.

The 49ers are on the clock. If they don’t take Dan Connor or Devin Thomas this could be my last broadcast…

6:20 – SF selects DT Kentwan Balmer, DT, UNC. Beer wouldn’t even put a dent in this pain. Where’s Pac Man when you need him?

The Packers are on the clock.

6:23 – The Jets have traded up and are now on the clock.

6:30 – The Jets select Purdue TE Dustin Keller. Nothing like using a 1^st round pick on Eric Johnson.

The Super Bowl Champion Patriots, err, New York Giants, are on the clock

6:35 – The GMEN select Miami S Kenny Phillips with the final pick of the 1^st Round

IDP Analysis: Phillips will likely debut as my No. 1 option among rookie DBs.

It’s been a fun first round, checking in at just over 3 ½ hours. I’ll be back tomorrow with additional first round analysis and a quick look at the 2^nd round.

Meanwhile, it’s burger time in IDP land…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cliff Lee now has 4 starts that have produced the following results:

4 wins

0.28 ERA

30 Ks

Before we annoint him as a breakout candidate, let’s take a look at some of his career stats to see if he is a prefect ’sell high’ player or a player that you need to get at all costs. 2007- 5-8, 6.29 ERA

2006- 14-11, 4.40

2005- 18-5, 3.79

This post is to lay out information, so you can make your own determination.

First, it must be noted that Lee is 30 years old. This helps to to know that he is not a young pitcher in the learning curve of a career.

Lee’s four wins have come against the Athletics (twice), the Twins, and the Royals. There is not a better schedule that he could have hoped for, and he has taken full advantage of this opportunity. Also, he has pitched all of his games in pitcher-friendly parks.

To Lee’s credit, he has dominated a team twice (the A’s), which points to the fact that adjustments were likely made, but to no avail to the hitters.

Although Lee had shown a three-year regression in his statline, it can be pointed out that three short years ago (2005), he was a stud with the 18-5, 3.79 ERA.

In 2006, his 14-11, 4.40 season could have either been a regression, or just dropoff from a career year.

Last year was an injury plagued season and can be easily dismissed if you believe that his numbers were due to his injuries.

This should give you a reference point to decide how you feel about Cliff Lee. Now, I will give my opinion:

Lee has been an excellent pitcher two of the last three years, so the fact that he is doing well is no surprise. He will face plenty of teams with loaded lineups that will hammer him on occasion. All things considered, I see Cliff Lee finishing about 16-10 with a 3.90 ERA, which is an excellent #2 SP.

Ahhhhh, we’re just hours away from the drama that is the NFL Draft. Skill players like Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm, Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Limas Sweed, and Malcolm Kelly have stolen the spotlight in endless mock drafts and have been hyped to a ridiculous extent. But my favorite player of all, an inevitable impact player for fantasy, has flown under the radar until recently.

 

I’m here to tell you that the player in this draft who’s bound to be a star at the next level is Devin Thomas, the 6-2 216-pound wideout from Michigan State who laid down a 4.40 40-time.

 

Thomas posted 79/1260/8 last season as a junior, averaged nearly 16 yards/grab, and earned All-Conference honors. He’s a big, physical specimen who reminds me of guys like Andre Johnson, Terrell Owens, Anquan Boldin, and Brandon Marshall because he’s just as fluid and sure-handed as they all are. Thomas can make the tough catch in traffic, use his large frame to gain positioning, and most importantly run after the reception for wholesome YAC. Plus, he’s somewhat of a big-play threat. His only true weakness is route-running, which can easily be remedied with NFL coaching.

 

Thomas will almost certainly be drafted by a team that runs a west coast offense since his skills fit that scheme, which emphasizes short passes and running after the catch. Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Minnesota, and Washington are all possible landing spots for him.

 

Now, I don’t get paid to scout players and analyze their every strength and shortcoming coming out of college, but every fiber of my being tells me that Thomas will have a bright NFL career. It might take him a year or two to really emerge, as is the norm with young wideouts. But when he blossoms, it’s going to be a thing of beauty.

 

There’s plenty of room on the D-Thomas bandwagon, so hop aboard.

Quick thoughts regarding 10 LB I’d like to see on my roster this season:

 

DeMeco Ryans (Hou) – He’s currently ahead of 49ers LB Patrick Willis as my top choice at the position.

 

Justin Durant (Jac) – The undersized Durant might be the best fantasy option on the Jaguar’s by season’s end.  

 

Paul Posluszny (Buf) – The future star could last until the middle rounds after missing 13 games last season with a broken arm.  

 

Bart Scott (Bal) – Make him a late-round selection as Scott has a proven track record and great potential despite plummeting stats in ’07. 

 

Chad Greenway (Min) – Greenway showed flashes last season on the weak side and should be fully recovered from a 2006 knee injury.

 

Steve Filer (ND) – Whoops, wrong column.

 

Karlos Dansby (Ari) – The Condor is one of the most versatile LB in the game will get you points playing inside, over the TE, or in space. Dansby’s more valuable in comprehensive scoring systems than in tackle-based leagues.

 

Jon Beason (Car) – The rookie posted 7 or more solo stops in 11 games last season.  

 

Donnie Edwards (KC) – Edwards is a perfect late-round pick after finally showng signs of slippage last season at age 35. He should post strong overall numbers if he takes over at MLB as expected. Just remember to sell high at the trading deadline.

 

A.J. Hawk (GB) – I admit this is pure stubbornness as Hawk had just 3 impact games (though he did contribute 7-8 more solid outings) in ’07. He just seems capable of so much more.

Dan Connor (TBD) – Unless Connor ends up in a terribly crowded LB situation (the Patriots, Steelers, and Cowboys come to mind) he’ll probably debut as my No. 1 ranked IDP rookie next week.  

After finishing the IDP Player Movement column last week, it occurred to me that Draft Day 2008 represents the end of an era. The safest (always) and greatest (arguably) IDP option of all-time is no longer the most reliable defensive option on draft boards across the country: Dolphins LB Zach Thomas has moved on after 12 seasons in Miami to the Dallas Cowboys, a new scheme, and into the twilight of his career.

It’s not that Thomas can’t recapture old glory for stretches in Dallas (in fact, at some point, I’ll certainly snag Thomas in my draft before the likes of Angelo Crowell or even all five LB options in New England), but the days of Zach Thomas, defensive anchor, are probably gone for fantasy owners. Which made me wonder: Is Thomas the best IDP option of his era? Or more likely, was he the definitive “safest choice” among active players on draft day?

My solution to this conundrum is admittedly arbitrary but as I told you long ago, Will Hunting doesn’t read this column, so you won’t find any standard deviation, medians, modes, or anything else that put you to sleep when you were forced to study. (Any nodding off will be a direct result of my writing, thank you).

I researched the last seven seasons for the top IDP options of this era (2001-2007 to be fair to some of the younger stars, as if we included the mid-90s this would be a two-player comparison between Thomas and Tampa Bay’s Derrick Brooks) and my initial thought was validated: Zach Thomas was indeed the safest game-by-game IDP option of his generation.

My main goal was to determine which star produced the fewest poor, or “dud” games, rather than just check each season’s final cumulative stats which can be skewed by huge single-game outputs such as Titans LB Keith Bulluck’s 3-INT, 3 PD effort in Week Two last year.

(For newcomers to my IDP world, “dud” games are defined as a single outing in which a player hurt your team relative to others theoretically started at that position in your league).

The players studied included:
Thomas (Mia)
London Fletcher-Baker (Stl/Buf/Was)
Ray Lewis (Bal)
Brian Urlacher (Chi)
Keith Bulluck (Ten)
Mike Peterson (Ind/Jac)
Donnie Edwards (KC/SD/KC)
Derrick Brooks (TB)

Antonio Pierce (Was/NYG); Nick Barnett (GB); Lance Briggs (Chi); and Will Witherspoon (Car/Stl) just missed the service time cut-off. (Feel free to ask for a breakdown of someone you feel I have omitted).

There were 112 possible games played for each player during this time (’01-’07). Thomas played in 94 of them. In those 94 games, he produced a total of 6 duds. SIX. In other words, Zach Thomas hurt your starting lineup less than once a year in the 2^nd half of his career, or a time when most decided he was too old to play at an All Pro level.

The Results for His Peers:

London Fletcher-Baker: 112 games played (0 missed) – 16 duds (Including 0 in 2006).
Ray Lewis: 85 games played (27 missed) – 11 duds

Brian Urlacher: 104 games played (8 missed) – 13 duds
Keith Bulluck: 96 games played (0 missed, but Bulluck was not a full-time starter in 2001 so I omitted the season from his study) – 15 duds, including 8 last year. Bulluck would have fared much better had this blog posted April 2007.
Mike Peterson: 88 games played (24 missed) – 19 duds
Donnie Edwards: 112 games played (0 missed) – 20 duds (Including 7 in his last 30 games and 3 of his last 5 in ’07).
Derrick Brooks: 112 games played (0 missed) – 30 duds (Including 6 last year and his last 3 of ’07).

Admittedly, there are a couple of weaknesses in my method, not the least of which is the inclusion of Week 17 for the breakdowns (several players produced duds in what was likely less one half of play in multiple Week 17 games) and, of course, the belief that a missed game does not constitute a dud (as you can insert a healthy sub).

So whether you agree with me, and believe Thomas is the reigning IDP king, or if you agree with Woody Allen’s belief that “Half the secret of success in life is just showing up,” and London Fletcher-Baker is your league’s IDP king, we can all agree that our IDP rosters will be a little shakier this season with Thomas in Dallas and when he finally decides to hang up the cleats.  

Who knows, maybe at that point Odell Thurman will be the IDP king.

Runs and RBIs are two of the vital offensive categories and when a MLB team scores a lot of runs, you can count on hits and/or HRs to be a beneficiary. Today we will take a look at six teams and their early-season run production so you can apply it to shaping your fantasy franchise.

1) Arizona Diamondbacks: They lead the league in runs scored at over 6 per game. Since they play half of their games in an extreme hitter’s park, the good times should roll all summer. Getting D-Backs on your roster is an excellent idea. They won’t likely lead the league as they are now, but this emerging offense should finish in the top 8.

2) Chicago Cubs: Last year, the Cubs had offensive talent, but couldn’t get timely hitting to score big runs. This year, things look much better, especially with Kosuke Fukudome added to the mix. Also, don’t forget that Alfonso Soriano will be back soon and might help this offense be a juggernaut. Wrigley is an excellent hitter’s park and plays very well in the summer months. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs led the league in scoring this year, and with their pitching, they might need to!

3) Chicago White Sox: The Sox come in at #5 in scoring and play in a great hitter’s park as well. They are doing this well with the middle of their lineup slumping. When they wake up, they Sox might move to the top three in runs scored this year. A healthy Joe Crede, a resurgent AJ Pierzynski, and breakout candidate Carlos Quentin should help this offense flourish in 2008.

The other end of the spectrum gives us the teams that have been disappointing so far:

1) Cleveland Indians: The Tribe is #25 in runs scored and they play in a pretty unfriendly hitter’s park. Travis Hafner looks like a hitter on the decline and their lineup may be vastly overrated. They certainly may turn things around, but I’m getting really bad vibes about the Indians.

2) Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are #23 in runs scored and their offense looks like it’s running in concrete. Certainly Adam Dunn will heat up, but the team looks to lack offensive continuity. Of course they play in a hitter’s park and the weather will be warming up, which could change things quite a bit. I see this offense ending up in the middle of the pack, but not much better, in run scoring this season.

3) Colorado Rockies: The Rox are #24 in runs scored, but regardless of the humidor factor, Coors Field is still the best place for hitters to pile up numbers. Warm weather and a good homestand or two will vault the Rox into the top third of the league in scoring, where they should be for the rest of the year.

The 2008 NFL schedule was released this week, as you likely know by now. I spent a few hours looking over it from a strictly fantasy perspective, with particular attention paid to those all-important playoff weeks of Week 14-16. I do this every year because I’m a first believer in foresight and preparation.

 

Granted, it’s blatant oversimplification to look at three weeks of a player’s schedule and draft him for the suspected gaudy numbers he’ll produce during your playoff run. Injuries and unexpected developments always pop up, of course. But doesn’t everybody want their elite guys to have a cakewalk when the money’s on the line?

 

Two teams absolutely jumped off the page at me as having cream-puff opponents during the 2008 fantasy playoffs. Even better, both of those fortunate squads have several dynamic skill players on their respective rosters – players I’ll definitely be targeting come draft season.

 

Yes, those emerging Minnesota Vikings and those high-powered New Orleans Saints will be on my wish-list. The Vikes have the luxury of playing Detroit, Arizona, and Atlanta down the stretch. The Saints are blessed with late-season matchups against Atlanta, Chicago, and Detroit. Both Atlanta and Detroit were wretched and embarrassing defensively in 2007. Arizona’s defense perennially operates like a revolving door. And Chicago’s defense (and entire team for that matter) is clearly on the decline.

 

As a result of my simplistic yet invaluable investigation, the likes of Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Sidney Rice, David Patten, and even Chester Taylor have officially skyrocketed up the rankings in my mental rolodex. These are all guys I wouldn’t have a problem drafting anyway because they’re all nice producers. Yet, now that I know their chances of exploding at the most competitive, crucial, and profitable time of the season are increased, I’ll make it a point to lean towards them (and their teams) when assembling my fantasy rosters this summer.

 

If you’re a serious competitor like myself, you should follow my lead and have a conscientious gander at the schedule. It’s a heady strategy you can’t overlook and it’s an approach your competition most likely will ignore. Grab a giant cup of Starbucks, throw some DMB on the stereo, use FantasyGuru.com’s points allowed tool, and determine for yourself which teams you think will roll in Weeks 14-16 based on the defenses they’ll be facing. My loot is on the Vikings and the Saints. Where’s yours?   

 

On a side note, I’d love to know who was responsible for giving the Evil Empire AKA New England such an insanely favorable slate of games in 2008. It just doesn’t smell right to me. But that’s just the conspiracy theorist in me speaking. Ignore him.

The service is the brainchild, so to speak, of an L.A.-based production company that had its own studios and was looking for a way to explore internet video. Their reason for wading into the already swamped fantasy market: “Because guys don’t like watching video from guys that look just like them,” the head honcho said. “Most fantasy players feel they know what they’re doing. If they’re gonna watch video where someone is giving fantasy advice, it better be informative, entertaining, and visually stimulating.”

Hmm … can’t really agree with that. The guys who already “know what they’re doing” aren’t looking for fantasy advice, and they’re probably going elsewhere to satisfy their other needs (wink wink). Guys looking for serious fantasy advice don’t mind watching video of a guy who looks like them if the “expert” actually knows what he’s talking about, and can actually speak from a platform of experience, hard work and proven expertise.

This is an interesting time for the fantasy industry. We seem to be caught between the corporate behemoths muscling into the industry with all their resources and general sports (not fantasy) reputations, and the flash-in-the-pan sites that favor style over solid fantasy substance.

No need for artificial enhancements.