Rookie DL to Target   Though DE/DT is not generally a productive fantasy position for rookies, there have been a few notable exceptions. For every Jamal Anderson there’s a Jevon Kearse; for every Dewayne Robertson there’s a Dana Stubblefield. You've heard of a "diamond in the rough," well rookie DL drafting is akin to finding a diamond (mine) after your tee-shot slices 200 feet east. Here's an early look: Potential Impact DT that could start Week One: Glenn Dorsey (DT, KC) – Should beat out Hard Knocks stars Tank Tyler and Turk McBride. This would actually help me immensely as I get them confused every time I try to rank them…   Sedrick Ellis (DT, NO) – The oft-injured Brian Young and the oft-tired Hollis Thomas are the incumbent starters inside. Both will play key roles. Both have an upside that pales in comparison to the explosive Ellis. Andre Fluellen (DT, Det) – Fluellen might have been among the top 10 picks had he played at Florida State when the players still received, um, coaching. DT incumbents are Cory Redding (he of the huge 2006 and even bigger contract in 2007) and FA acquisition Chuck Darby. I like Fluellen to start at some point in September over ...

  Possible Early Impact IDP Rounds 2-4: Linebackers: Dan Connor (LB, Car) – Assuming he wouldn’t end up on a completely stacked LB roster I felt he was the No. 1 IDP option entering the draft. Presto!   Curtis Lofton (LB, Atl) – Meet the Falcons new two-down MLB (allowing veteran LB Keith Brooking to finally return to the weak side where he belongs).   Jordon Dizon (LB, Det) – Stephen Boyd 2.0. Dizon in the middle and Eight-Solo Ernie Sims on the weak side is a distinct possibility this fall. Philip Wheeler (LB, Ind) – Should be a good battle with TyJuan Hagler for the final starting spot at LB in the Colts Cover 2 scheme.   Bruce Davis (OLB, Pit) – A DE at UCLA, Davis is all football player but the Steelers appear set on the outside with 2nd year LB LaMarr Woodley and break-out veteran James Harrison manning the OLB spots.  Also: Xavier Adibi could find a spot in Houston if the Texans can get creative with WLB Morlon Greenwood’s role; Stanford Keglar (who can really run) has a chance to make an impact in Tennessee, a team that’s been one LB short for a few years   Defensive Backs: Brandon Flowers (CB, KC) – Opportunity ...

2008 IDP Draft Journal   I used to love draft day. My friends and I would get together every year before it became annoyingly hip to do so. There was even a Mark Carrier draft day dance celebration in 1990, followed by the less effective Stan Thomas follow-up dance in ’91. (Unfortunately, I grew up near quite a few Bears fans). Today, the NFL Draft is the most over analyzed day of the year, but as a service to you, the reader, and to me, I’ve ignored all mock drafts this year (seriously) and I’m embarking on this Draft Journal with an open mind, a 6-pack of an on-sale Belgian Wheat Ale called “Shock-Top,” a bag of Tostitos, Mrs. Renfro’s Habernero Mango Salsa (Hot), and CJ Burgers and Reduced Fat Ruffles on tap for tonight. Also some sweet corn on the cob from Florida, which is odd, because I live in Indiana. Anyway, here we go…   Pre-Draft Prep Basement, two TVs with the draft on the HD big screen and a show TBD on the other TV that I’m told will become obsolete in 2009 because of something called “Digital Television.” There’s also a giant bag of lemonheads within my reach.   2:30 – Love ...

Cliff Lee now has 4 starts that have produced the following results: 4 wins 0.28 ERA 30 Ks Before we annoint him as a breakout candidate, let's take a look at some of his career stats to see if he is a prefect 'sell high' player or a player that you need to get at all costs. 2007- 5-8, 6.29 ERA 2006- 14-11, 4.40 2005- 18-5, 3.79 This post is to lay out information, so you can make your own determination. First, it must be noted that Lee is 30 years old. This helps to to know that he is not a young pitcher in the learning curve of a career. Lee's four wins have come against the Athletics (twice), the Twins, and the Royals. There is not a better schedule that he could have hoped for, and he has taken full advantage of this opportunity. Also, he has pitched all of his games in pitcher-friendly parks. To Lee's credit, he has dominated a team twice (the A's), which points to the fact that adjustments were likely made, but to no avail to the hitters. Although Lee had shown a three-year regression in his statline, it can be pointed out that three short years ago (2005), he was a stud with the 18-5, ...

Quick thoughts regarding 10 LB I’d like to see on my roster this season:   DeMeco Ryans (Hou) – He’s currently ahead of 49ers LB Patrick Willis as my top choice at the position.   Justin Durant (Jac) – The undersized Durant might be the best fantasy option on the Jaguar’s by season’s end.     Paul Posluszny (Buf) – The future star could last until the middle rounds after missing 13 games last season with a broken arm.     Bart Scott (Bal) – Make him a late-round selection as Scott has a proven track record and great potential despite plummeting stats in ’07.    Chad Greenway (Min) – Greenway showed flashes last season on the weak side and should be fully recovered from a 2006 knee injury.   Steve Filer (ND) – Whoops, wrong column.   Karlos Dansby (Ari) – The Condor is one of the most versatile LB in the game will get you points playing inside, over the TE, or in space. Dansby’s more valuable in comprehensive scoring systems than in tackle-based leagues.   Jon Beason (Car) – The rookie posted 7 or more solo stops in 11 games last season.     Donnie Edwards (KC) – Edwards is a perfect late-round pick after finally showng signs of slippage last season at age 35. He should ...

After finishing the IDP Player Movement column last week, it occurred to me that Draft Day 2008 represents the end of an era. The safest (always) and greatest (arguably) IDP option of all-time is no longer the most reliable defensive option on draft boards across the country: Dolphins LB Zach Thomas has moved on after 12 seasons in Miami to the Dallas Cowboys, a new scheme, and into the twilight of his career. It’s not that Thomas can’t recapture old glory for stretches in Dallas (in fact, at some point, I’ll certainly snag Thomas in my draft before the likes of Angelo Crowell or even all five LB options in New England), but the days of Zach Thomas, defensive anchor, are probably gone for fantasy owners. Which made me wonder: Is Thomas the best IDP option of his era? Or more likely, was he the definitive “safest choice” among active players on draft day? My solution to this conundrum is admittedly arbitrary but as I told you long ago, Will Hunting doesn’t read this column, so you won’t find any standard deviation, medians, modes, or anything else that put you to sleep when you were forced to study. (Any nodding off will ...

Runs and RBIs are two of the vital offensive categories and when a MLB team scores a lot of runs, you can count on hits and/or HRs to be a beneficiary. Today we will take a look at six teams and their early-season run production so you can apply it to shaping your fantasy franchise. 1) Arizona Diamondbacks: They lead the league in runs scored at over 6 per game. Since they play half of their games in an extreme hitter's park, the good times should roll all summer. Getting D-Backs on your roster is an excellent idea. They won't likely lead the league as they are now, but this emerging offense should finish in the top 8. 2) Chicago Cubs: Last year, the Cubs had offensive talent, but couldn't get timely hitting to score big runs. This year, things look much better, especially with Kosuke Fukudome added to the mix. Also, don't forget that Alfonso Soriano will be back soon and might help this offense be a juggernaut. Wrigley is an excellent hitter's park and plays very well in the summer months. It wouldn't surprise me if the Cubs led the league in scoring this year, and with their pitching, they might ...

Far too often players are written off, but none more than SPs that are in their 20's and have a bad start to their careers. The hype machine causes us to expect great things immediately and then when it does not go as planned, player value plummets until the player resurfaces. Here are a few pitchers that once had good value, but can be found on many waiver wires and may well be strong pitchers on your staff this year: Zack Greinke (KC). He had an amazing start to the 2007 season, and it looks like he's at it again after three starts, boasting 3 wins, a 0.75 ERA, and a 0.92 WHIP. Scott Olsen (Fla). So far, he has 2wins, a 3.05 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP. Olsen looked good in 2006 for awhile, but was awful in 2007. He has great stuff, so he may merit a pickup. Ervin Santana (LAA). Of the three pitchers in this post, he has the best chance to amass a high number of wins. So far, he has 2 wins, a 3.32 ERA, and a 1.21 WHIP. Again, I am not saying that these pitchers have broken out, but I certainly am saying that they might ...

In junior high, I remember learning that the mean was simply the mathematical average. In the world of fantasy baseball, the mean is the concept that should allow you to sleep easy at night when David Ortiz is on your team and hitting well under .100. If Ortiz hits .300 for the season, you should be getting a .330 hitter from May through September. Unless a player is going into serious decline or is in the infancy of a career, you can generally assume that most players will catch up to their career norms after a slow start. By the same token, a player that is absoulutely on fire for the first month will see a market correction over the course of a season. Panic is often the emotion that many fantasy players demonstrate when their players are crawling out of the gate. Here is what I suggest for fantasy owners: 1) If your players are slumping, try to get a bench player to step in for the short term, then as soon as your player starts to heat up, get him right back in the lineup and let the good times roll! 2) If your opponents have slumping players, try to make a reasonable trade ...

Welcome to our new Staff Blog. We'll be updating the look of this soon, but this blog is up now and gives our staff writers their own forum to write about what's on their minds. We hope you enjoy the new content area. John Hansen