David Garrard, in my eyes, is a fantastic backup fantasy choice in 2008 and a borderline starter because of his strong arm, his mobility, and his mistake-free brand of football. It also helps that he has a superior running game behind him. And honestly, I like the guy. A few of my very close friends went to ECU when he was there and I remember them raving about Garrard, so I’ve had my eye on him for quite some time.

In addition, when I was covering the preseason for the site last August, I proclaimed that Garrard was deserving of the job over complete stiff and fraud Byron Leftwich. It was evident in his play last summer that this guy was ready to take the next step in his NFL career. He took that step in 2008 with a sweet 18-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. And I was proud to have endorsed him as the future for Jacksonville.

With that said, I’m concerned about him right now because things aren’t going well with his supporting cast. It’s still early and we have a long way to go before the real action commences. Yet here are some clearly negative factors to consider with Garrard:

• Jerry Porter, the big-money free-agent addition expected to stretch the field and add explosiveness to the Jag aerial attack, had hamstring surgery and is laid up, maybe even to start the season. Plus, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and he’s never had either a 1,000-yard season or a double-digit-TD campaign.

• Reggie Williams, the stud of the Jag wideout corps in 2007, had a setback with his sprained knee in practice after starting camp on the PUP list and appears to be pretty gimped out at this point. Apparently, the Gimp’s not sleeping.

• Dennis Northcutt, who’s undersized and average to begin with, has a back injury that he’s dealing with.

• Troy Williamson continues to drop passes in practice.

• Mike Walker’s knee continues to slow him down and limit his reps.

• John Broussard is completely unproven.

• Matt Jones still isn’t committed to football (can’t say what I really want to say here).

• And in the sickest twist of irony, the Jags failed to draft a wideout in April.

Soooooooooo, has that killed your buzz yet, Garrard lovers?

It should because Maurice Jones-Drew and Marcedes Lewis can’t carry the Jag passing game. The Jags may bring in a street free agent like Terry Glenn or Koren Robinson, but will that really help? Doubt it.

I’m not saying jump ship on Garrard because he’s a quality player and the aforementioned guys could always turn it around as the season nears. But you better start to temper expectations a bit, as it looks like head coach Jack Del Rio may have no choice but to run the ball 35 times/game in 2008 if things keep trending downward with Jacksonville’s receivers into the dog days of August.

On a side note, I’d like to thank all of our subscribers who’ve been supportive of me in my first year with FantasyGuru.com as well as John and Bill, who’ve been great mentors and friends in my time of transition. I’m looking forward to a great Year Two with the site and with all of you. I love talking fantasy strategy and football with you guys and gals.

Now get studying, it’s fantasy football season!

Great news on the Marvin Harrison front surfaced today. Head coach Tony Dungy pronounced him ready for action, which means he’ll participate in training camp. And provided he doesn’t have any setbacks this summer with his troublesome knees, he shouldn’t have any issues returning to his role as Peyton Manning’s go-to guy in 2008.

I know what you’re thinking. When Marvin was out last year, Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark absolutely took over. So that must mean that trio will pick up where they left off this season and Harrison will be left with the scraps, right? Well, to an extent that’s true because Indy loves the upside of younger guys Wayne and Gonzo. But we’re talking about Marvin Harrison here, one of the NFL’s most prolific receivers of all time and a guy who absolutely commands the ball.

Last season, I passed on Harrison in all of my leagues because I foresaw his downfall in 2007. He was just too consistent since 1999 (double-digits TDs every year) and something told me he was destined for an off-year. Sure enough, he posted 20/247/1, missed 11 regular season games, and, well, you know the rest. Good thing I have that sixth sense like my late sister Rosalie, who was actually a legitimate psychic for a living.

This season, I’m not going to hesitate to snatch Harrison if I can get him in the 4^th round or later because I smell a big-time bounce-back year. Peeps are way down on him and he’s a fantastic value right now in drafts, despite his pretty sizeable injury baggage and risk. So you have to take notice even if you don’t trust him. With Manning throwing him the ball, Joseph Addai keeping defenses honest, and Clark drawing safety attention down the seam, how can Harrison not succeed in 2008?

The answer is it’s almost impossible. The only way he fails this season is if he re-injures one of his knees. And after months of down-time to recover, I don’t envision that happening. If he’s just 85% healthy, #2 WR fantasy production should be no problem for Harrison in 2008.

There’s plenty of room on the Harrison bandwagon if you want to jump on with me. After all, most people want to anoint Gonzalez as the next marvelous receiving option in Indy. Not me, I’ll roll the dice and take my chances with Marvelous Marvin. The value’s just too good to pass up.

Ronnie Brown is coming off ACL surgery and his boy Cam Cameron no longer coordinates the Dolphin offense. Ricky Williams is a strange cat who is on the wrong side of 30 and trying to bounce back from a torn pectoral muscle. But despite all that baggage, this backfield has me intrigued with training camp bearing down on us. Not Brown or Williams individually, per se – the tandem, together, as one unit.

First off, Brown broke out last year in a huge way. He was a beast before he suffered the knee injury, leading the NFL in total yards from scrimmage and notching four consecutive 100-yard rushing games. And for your PPR leaguers, it’s worth noting that he was on pace for 80+ receptions.

Meanwhile, Williams has demonstrated a tremendous work ethic this off-season and he’s healthy. He’s in phenomenal shape, he’s reportedly focused on helping the team, and he’s ready to take whatever part of the load Brown can’t handle.

At this point, we’re not sure exactly how the carries will shake out early in the season, how the young O-line will mesh, and who the QB will be. Yet you can bet your bottom dollar that the Dolphins will be a run-friendly team in 2008. They have no choice, actually. Ted Ginn and Ernest Wilford can’t carry an offense on their unproven shoulders. And no quarterback on their roster has any upside at all.

So I’m going to go out on a limb and speculate that head coach Tony Sparano is going to run Ronnie and Ricky into the ground in 2008. For fantasy, that’s the kind of situation you may want to capitalize on.

I think this will be one of the more productive RBBCs in the NFL this year, of course, assuming Brown doesn’t have any major setbacks in-season. You’ll love what Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew give you and you should enjoy success with Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. But consider the value you could get with Ronnie and Ricky. Many will be scared off by Brown’s surgically repaired ACL and Williams’ past transgressions. You shouldn’t be when the price is right.

I really don’t care for all the Brett Favre hoopla that’s been circulating since he predictably admitted that he’s still got the “itch” to play. My feeling is that the guy has accomplished all he possibly can and solidified himself as one of the greatest gunslingers to ever fire the pigskin. So why linger like a bad rash and flip-flop like a wannabe politician? Why make your own legacy so awkward and uncomfortable when it should be shiny and brilliant? And finally, why toy with the feelings of rabid Packer fans?

This whole Favre story makes me fume internally because of the unenviable position it puts the Packers in, one season after they nearly made the Super Bowl. If they take him back and hand him the starting job, they’ll be vilified for not giving Aaron Rodgers his much-deserved chance in 2008. If they trade or release him and he catches on with another NFC team, Green Bay might have to face him in a make-or-break game, possibly even in the postseason. Plus, team brass would be relentlessly attacked for turning their backs on the guy who gave Packer fans so many fond memories over the last 15+ years.

With all that said and off my chest, I’d like to see the Packers close the door on the Favre era for good and deal with whatever ramifications arise. If he makes them pay on the field, so be it. If the public backlash is huge, ignore it. If Rodgers falls flat on his face, deal with it. But they shouldn’t even entertain thoughts of welcoming him back with open arms because of the sheer egotism he’s shown by teetering on the brink of retirement for the last three off-seasons.

Although he thinks he is, Favre is not a savior. And he has absolutely no right to put himself above the concept of a team. The last time I checked, 53 men suit up on Sundays for the Packers. Not just one.

While I was getting ready for my expert mock draft tonight and mapping my strategy, I was reminded of a clever little method I’ve made use of before in my fantasy endeavors, which I’m not sure the masses are really open to experimenting with or too aware of. You can take it or leave it, as it’s just a small nugget I thought could help a few folks. It’s not Gospel, it doesn’t suit everyone, and some purists may even call it idiocy. But it’s benefited me in the past and I’ve utilized it with success in tough draft situations.

I call it the 2-TE approach, namely because the strategy involves starting (yes, you read that right) a pair of tight ends. Not ordinary tight ends. Just the top dogs at the position. The cream of the crop if you would.  

Every league is different nowadays, but many setups that involve Flex starters make TEs eligible for that slot along with the obvious (RBs and WRs). If you’re drafting in a league like this where you can double your pleasure by rolling with two top-tier tight ends as starters, I’ve got some advice for you from my own experience.

Give it a whirl! It can pan out for you if you choose wisely, at the right time, and under the right conditions.

Last year, I implemented this technique and paired Chris Cooley with Tony Gonzalez. Several years ago, I remember doing it with Gonzo and Todd Heap. In both of those instances, I made the playoffs and finished as a top-three team.

It’s a risky strategy for sure because, by their very nature, TEs aren’t targeted as much as WRs. Plus, it works best when you spend back-to-back picks (say round 6-7) on your tight end tandem to beat the position run, which may seem like wasted picks in the first half of your draft. But let me tell you something. A top-10 tight end who’s a key part of his team’s offense can be just as valuable and productive on a weekly basis as a #2-3 WR or a committee/change-of-pace RB on an average-to-poor offense. Primarily, that’s due to TDs.

So when you’re debating whether you should pick up Jerricho Cotchery or Javon Walker and deciding between Jerious Norwood or DeAngelo Williams, you should whip out your TE cheat-sheet and roll the dice for your Flex production.

Just a couple of disclaimers, so you don’t think I’ve gone batty. First, make sure it’s in a PPR league, otherwise it’s pointless. And only do it as a fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants method in a draft where the wideouts have flown off the board earlier than usual. I say this because, to properly pull off the 2-TE approach and do it with really strong players, you simply have to reach, which is something many fantasy footballers frown upon.

Myself, I’m a gambling man. I enjoy taking risks when a draft gets very competitive and when I’m not pleased with the potential Flex options I’m faced with.

My potentially lethal 2-TE combo for 2008: Vernon Davis paired with Kellen Winslow.

Welcome to Adam Caplan’s NFL Insider Blog. Adam will be chiming in from time-to-time to post some juicy tidbits.

As a life-long Eagles fan (with zero bias by the way since my job demands it), I feel that I can speak about Donovan McNabb intelligently and accurately. Well, as I listened to him yesterday explaining the definition of shoulder tendonitis to the media as simply “tightness,” I realized that he’s gone through his nine-year career without learning an essential (and pretty basic) skill that QBs like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo have perfected.

It’s called the touch pass. And it probably could have made him a borderline Hall-of-Famer if he wasn’t so stubborn, aloof, arrogant, and caught up in flashing his strong arm, which is now slowly deteriorating.  

Year after year, I’ve been dumbfounded as I’ve watched #5 fire passes high, low, left, and right to his receivers when all he needed to do was thread the needle with a soft, accurate throw. Newsflash! Maybe the unnecessary and clearly excessive velocity he’s been putting on the pigskin for almost 10 years is finally catching up with him.

For McNabb to return to fantasy prominence in 2008, he needs to swallow his pride and learn that a QB doesn’t need to throw the ball like Nolan Ryan to excel in the modern-day NFL.

Sorry for hopping up on my large soapbox, but I had to get that off my chest. I feel better now.

I hate to burst everyone’s bubble, but Ryan Grant is overvalued right now. Flat out. He’s going in the first/second round in drafts, as owners expect him to repeat last season’s big-play bonanza. But guess what? The guy hasn’t even practiced with his team this spring because of a contract dispute. Missing time that he could be using to learn and grow as a lead NFL back is not a smart move for him. And his situation has me worried, particularly because so many people aren’t hesitating to call his name very, very early, as if he’s somehow immune to a regression in 2008.

In his absence, which stems from his wanting a big payday (like every other dude in the NFL), Brandon Jackson has been maturing, developing his pass-catching skills, and building up confidence. I’m not suggesting Jackson’s going to steal the job from Grant because he’s a raw second-year player with a lot to learn, he sputtered in 2007, and he dealt with nagging injuries. Nor am I proposing that Grant will be useless for fantasy purposes in 2008.

I’m simply getting the vibe that the Packer RB picture could spiral into a running-back-by-committee, thus limiting Grant’s upside. He’s no Adrian Peterson and the Packers will experience some substantial growing pains without the legendary Brett Favre, so don’t blindly spend a high pick on Grant and expect to plug-and-play him all season. Also, keep in mind that pass-happy head coach Mike McCarthy is completely enamored with his “Big Five” formation, which makes use of five wideouts and de-emphasizes the ground game.

Like countless others, I grabbed Grant off waivers last season and rode him down the stretch, so I’m well aware of the potency that he can bring to a fantasy roster. It’s just that the vibes surrounding him right now aren’t great. And we saw last year that McCarthy will ride the hot hand at RB, so Jackson, a second-round pick with good shiftiness who the Packers need meaningful contributions from this year, could ultimately wind up being a better value than Grant this year.

Bottom line, my gut tells me people are making a huge mistake by penciling in Grant for massive, stud-like production this season. The only way I’ll tangle with Grant is if he falls into the third round, which seems like an impossibility given his current ADP is in the 16-18 range.

I just learned that Javon Walker, who signed a ridiculous contract with the Raiders in free agency this off-season, was discovered in Las Vegas lying unconscious on a sidewalk with an orbital fracture and taken to a hospital where he’s in fair condition. I almost threw up on myself. Why you ask?

Well, I’m nauseated by the thought of well-paid professional football players getting in hot water off the field, whether it’s with the law or their physical well-being. I mean, for crying out loud, you’re being paid to play a game for a living. Is it that tough to keep a low profile, work on your craft, and make it through the off-season in one piece? It can’t possibly be.

Playing baseball throughout my youth, I was always taught by my father to put my team first and steer clear of any dangerous or threatening circumstances. Why can’t one family member, one agent, one team official, one coach, or one teammate preach the same thing in this day and age?

It’s been an epidemic lately around the league and that disturbing trend along with Roger Goodell’s crackdown on bad behavior will no doubt impact fantasy owners (and actual NFL teams) in 2008 and beyond. Just look at the spectrum of arrests, issues, and injuries occurring with big-name guys like Chris Henry, Travis Henry, Cedric Benson, LenDale White, Marshawn Lynch, and Brandon Marshall this off-season. Even a so-called “character” guy like Marvin Harrison has found his way into a bad situation. I know they’re human and they’ll make mistakes, but that doesn’t make it pardonable.

What this all means for fantasy is that you’ve got to have a backup plan built into your roster for unforeseen disasters, which seem to pop up each week in the modern-day NFL, sadly enough. Arrests, non-football injuries, and all other inexcusable circumstances that “our” players get themselves into will need to be planned for, plain and simple.

Essentially, what I’m suggesting is that you be forward-thinking and always remember that drafting for depth is just as vital as fielding your starting lineup.

I know this is important because I drafted Javon Walker already this year. And I’m not afraid to admit it because I snatched up Drew Carter to protect my investment. With a seemingly endless list of impact fantasy performers getting in trouble, getting hurt, or getting shown the door, you ought to protect your investments as well, even a guy who appears to be a saint on the surface.

I recently completed the Guru IDP Top 100 for the Magazine (posted in the IDP Section of the Homepage) so there will be quite a few posts discussing the players on the list, those that just missed, and those I never considered.

But first, I noticed two major differences between this list and those from recent years:

• Before finalizing the list I had to convince myself that my No. 11 ranked player was worthy to carry the torch for the “Next 10” best picks (the Top 10 guys all pass the name test quite easily)
• There’s a narrow gap between the 2^nd, 3^rd, and even some of the 4^th Tier LB entering the ’08 season

The aforementioned No. 11 ranked player is Vikings LB E.J. Henderson. I won’t get into his candidacy here (we’d prefer you buy the Magazine or, short of that, keep your Web subscription and read the column!) but at No. 11, I’m basically saying E.J. should be the second, and for a few leagues, the first defensive player you select.

Jump down the list to No. 44 and you’ll see the name Antonio Pierce.  How can Henderson rank 33 spots higher (16 LB are ranked between the two) than a proven IDP option such as Pierce? Couldn’t Pierce be your second-best defensive player in a deep league this season as well? Despite my convincing case for each ranking on the list, I have to admit there’s an underlying theme throughout:

Linebacker Value

So on draft day, after the top tier of LB and impact DL/DB are gone, you’ll likely build a better squad by concentrating on improving your offense–stockpiling reliable backup RB and WR–because believe me, there are plenty of LB to go around  in 2008. Some of them aren’t even starters…yet.

More on those hidden gems in future posts.