Fantasy Football Articles:
Free Agency
Review (Part II)
by John Hansen
Publisher, The Guru Report
Defensive Analysis by Adam Caplan
April 15, 2003
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There are still a handful of free agent skill players yet to know the
colors of their 2003 uniform – if they have one at all – but it’s now
safe to say the bulk of this year’s free agency activity has passed. As
we suspected, the most interesting player movement happened early in the
game and was covered in Part I of this article. To put this year’s free
agent movement into perspective, we’ve ranked all moves below in terms
of their fantasy impacts. If you’d like to read the analysis for the
players covered in Part I, head here:
http://www.fantasyguru.com/NFL-free-agent-signings.html
Below the offensive players, fantasy defense maven Adam Caplan has
ranked his top-22 free agent moves from the defensive side of the ball
and also added some honorable mentions. As always, keep in mind all the
analysis below is from a fantasy football perspective. This is
especially important to remember when reading the defensive analysis.
- Stephen Davis
(RB, signed by Car from Was) – See Analysis in
Free Agency Review Part I
- David Boston
(WR, signed by SD from Ari) – See Analysis in
Free Agency Review Part I
- Peerless Price
(WR, traded from Buf to Atl) – See Analysis in
Free Agency Review Part I
Laveranues Coles (WR, signed by Was from NYJ)
The Skinny: Coles last month agreed to a seven-year, $35
million offer sheet from the Redskins.
Coles’ signing bonus was $13 million, the largest in Redskin history.
The Jets, who tendered the restricted free agent only a $1.3 million
offer rather than a $1.8 million offer (which would have commanded a 3rd
round pick in addition to the 1st rounder), opted not to
match Washington’s offer. They did so mainly because it was actually
more than the four-year receiver was asking for. The Redskins had no
qualms about giving up the money and their 13th pick
overall for Coles. The Jets, meanwhile, didn’t feel the player was
worth the money, especially since losing him netted them such a high
first round draft pick.
The Fantasy Analysis: In today’s NFL, the 5’11", 196-pound
Coles isn’t considered a prototypical WR, but he’s exactly what
Steve Spurrier wants in his offense. Coles runs a 4.3 40, runs
excellent routes, has superb hands, and will give Spurrier a
legitimate deep and run-after-the-catch guy. He should also have more
opportunities to find the endzone in Washington. It should be pointed
out, though, that Coles’ chemistry with QB Chad Pennington last
year developed over a three-year period and that it may take time for
him to develop anything close to that in Washington with Patrick
Ramsey. But the bottom line is that Coles will step in as the
team’s #1 WR – with fellow starter Rod Gardner the possession
guy – and Coles could still catch 100+ balls in this pass-happy
system. At 26 years old and having proved himself as an elite NFL
receiver, Coles appears to be a can’t-miss fantasy player in this
system. The one factor that could slow him down, though, is the
(potentially slow) development of Ramsey. There is little doubt Ramsey
will be an effective NFL QB for quite some time, but it’s hard to say
for sure that he’ll flourish in just his second year in the league,
especially with a real tough schedule the first month of the season.
But as long as Ramsey, who will at least have the benefit of two
training camps with Spurrier, is coming along well this summer and
there is nothing close to a QB controversy in Washington, Coles’
potential will easily prompt us to advocate him as a #2 fantasy WR.
Jake Plummer (QB, signed by Den from Ari) – See Analysis in
Free Agency Review Part I
Stacey Mack (RB, signed by Hou from Jac)
The Skinny: Mack, who has averaged a solid 4.0 yards per carry
while rushing for 1,498 yards and 19 touchdowns during his four-year
career, signed what is believed to be a one-year contract with the
Texans last week worth only $530,000 plus a small signing bonus. Texan
head coach Dom Capers was the Jaguars' defensive coordinator
during Mack's first two seasons in Jacksonville, but Mack, who passed
on better offers from the Jaguars and Giants, signed with Houston and
for only one year for one simple reason: He wanted a legitimate chance
to start.
The Fantasy Analysis: Mack was a very average back in 1999-00,
but he showed noticeable improvement in 2001 and 2002, so he’s an
interesting fantasy option this coming season. Although his speed is
nothing special, he has shown the ability to bust off a long run on
occasion; has good size, which makes him an effective inside/goal line
runner; and he is more explosive than last year’s starter, Jon
Wells. Speaking of Wells, he’ll be hard-pressed to beat Mack out
for the starting job (even though Wells has lost some weight in an
attempt to improve his burst to the hole, which was terrible last
year). Assuming the team doesn’t invest a high pick on a top back in
the draft, expect Mack to open the season as the starter in Texas and
have a season that will make him very worthy of being drafted as a #3
fantasy back. That is if – and we repeat if – his OL isn’t a
total mess again come September.
Curtis Conway (WR, signed by NYJ from SD)
The Skinny: After losing Coles to the Redskins, the Jets wasted
little time signing the 10-year veteran Conway, who was released
earlier in the year by the Chargers. Conway’s deal was a three-year
one that included a signing bonus of $1.2 million and could pay him as
much as $7.5 million. In Conway, the Jets finally have a receiver with
size – someone who is an ideal fit for their offense. He will
immediately step in as the team’s #1 WR.
The Fantasy Analysis: There are those who believe Conway, at
32, has lost a step. He may no longer be the great deep threat he was
with the Bears in, say, 1995, but he’s still a fast receiver who can
make plays downfield, and he’s definitely not afraid to go over the
middle. For the last two years in San Diego, despite questionable play
at QB and a shaky supporting cast at receiver, Conway performed at a
very high level. Conway, with an accurate and efficient QB in Chad
Pennington at the helm, could easily be an excellent #2 fantasy
receiver for the Jets this year, but there are two obvious reasons why
you should draft him only as a #3. One, although he plays as hard as
anyone, durability has always been a big concern with him, and it
certainly is at his advancing age and on the heels of a season that
saw him miss four games due to a shoulder injury. In ten seasons,
Conway has started all 16 games only four times. Secondly, the
transition to the new offense and his new QB will not be one that will
happen overnight, so he’ll probably be a little slow off the mark in
New York, where he will also be under more pressure. Still, proven and
legitimate #1 NFL receivers on good teams who are the #1 WR for those
teams are hard to come by, so Conway should be worth the gamble this
year and make a solid middle-round pick.
Trung Canidate (RB, traded to Was from Stl)
The Skinny: Canidate, who spent most of the last two seasons in
Ram head coach Mike Martz’ dog house, was traded by the Rams to
the Redskins for OG David Loverne and a 4th round
pick in this year's draft. He is expected compete for and win the
starting RB job in Washington this year.
The Fantasy Analysis: Clearly, the Redskins covet Canidate’s
blazing speed, but it’s good they didn’t give up too much to get him
because he has plenty of issues. Let’s start with the fumbling – it
prevented him from securing the backup job behind Marshall Faulk
last year, and he certainly hasn’t proved he can keep the ball off the
ground. He’s also been injury-prone since entering the league in 2000.
Pass protection and blitz pickup aren’t his strong suits, either.
Between the fumbling, the injuries, and the mistakes, Canidate is
bound to spend at least a little time in "Chateau Bow Wow" in
Washington. And with capable backs like Ladell Betts and
Kenny Watson waiting in the wings, a committee situation seems
likely and may even be the best case scenario for the 4th
year back. Does he have upside potential in this system? Sure. Will he
be worth taking even as a #2 RB? No way.
Kordell Stewart (QB, signed by Chi from Pit) – See Analysis in
Free Agency Review Part I
Emmitt Smith (RB, signed by Ari from Dal)
The Skinny: The NFL’s all-time leading rusher last month agreed
to a two-year contract that is believed to have a $3 million signing
bonus and salaries between $2 million and $2.5 million each season.
Smith’s contract is also believed to include a provision that allows
for "a partnership off the field," according to VP of football
operations, Rod Graves. Smith, who didn’t seriously consider
any other teams, is expected to open the season first on the depth
chart and to also provide the team with excellent leadership and the
younger players an example to follow. He’s also expected to put more
bodies in the seats, since there is a strong Cowboy fan contingency in
Arizona. Finally, Smith’s arrival in Arizona should signal the end of
the Thomas Jones era in the Grand Canyon State.
The Fantasy Analysis: While much has been made of how Smith’s
star power will be a public relations boost for the downtrodden
Cardinal franchise, the real story here is the hit RB Marcel
Shipp’s fantasy value has taken. Smith, although on the serious
downside at 34, can still play, and he’s incredibly durable, so
Shipp’s 2003 value is reduced significantly. Smith doesn’t make people
miss like he used to and at this point in his career is no longer a
threat to bust off a long run, two things Shipp has over him. He’s
also been less effective the last few years near the goal, another
factor Shipp has over him. But the problem for Shipp is that Smith
will get plenty of touches and, even if it’s in unspectacular fashion,
he’ll grind out solid production behind a large Cardinal line, and he
probably won’t get hurt, so Shipp’s fantasy value in 2003 is iffy at
best. As for Smith himself, since Shipp will also play and has
superior skills, and since the Cardinals will be a bad team that will
not give him many scoring opportunities or 4th quarter
leads to protect, Smith’s fantasy value is low, too. Personally, since
he’ll be available very late in the draft and probably 3-4 rounds
after Smith, I’d rather have Shipp, the better player, as my 4th
or 5th RB and just hope for the best.
Jeff Blake (QB, signed by Ari from Bal) – See Analysis in Free
Agency Review Part I
Jake Delhomme (QB, signed by Car from NO) – See Analysis in
Free Agency Review Part I
Ike Hilliard (WR, NYG, re-signed) – See Analysis in Free
Agency Review Part I
Derrius Thompson (WR, signed by Mia from Was) – See Analysis
in Free Agency Review Part I
Kevin Dyson (WR, signed by Car from Ten)
The Skinny: The Titans were one of two teams to draft a WR in
the first round of the 1998 draft, and they opted for Dyson over
Randy Moss. Needless to say, Dyson never did live up to
expectations in Tennessee. Injuries were a big problem, but Dyson
hasn’t proven himself to be a viable #1 NFL receiver. The Panthers
believe his hamstring injury from last year is fully healed and that
he will be 100% entering training camp. Dyson’s contract was believed
to have been a one-year deal worth $1 million, which could increase to
nearly $2 million if he reaches certain incentives.
The Fantasy Analysis: Dyson, 28, will compete for a starting
job with WRs Muhsin Muhammad and Steve Smith. If he
starts, it will likely be at Smith’s expense. The speedy Smith could
then play in the slot and would give the team a nice trio of WRs. The
Panther offense focuses on the run, but their ultimate goal is to have
balance with the pass, and they are particularly fond of throwing the
ball downfield, which is where Dyson should come in. Dyson, however,
shouldn’t be a guy you can count on to start for your fantasy team.
He’s injury-prone and the Panthers will hardly have a prolific passing
game. Plus, the team will be distributing the ball between Dyson,
Muhammad, Smith, and another new receiver, former Ram Ricky Proehl,
so there will be only so much production to go around. Dyson makes a
decent #4 or #5 receiver, though, and he could have nice value during
the season if there’s an injury to Muhammad, who isn’t exactly an iron
man.
Terry Glenn (WR, traded from GB to Dal) – See Analysis in Free
Agency Review Part I
Shawn Bryson (RB, signed by Det from Buf)
The Skinny: After garnering interest from a few other clubs,
Bryson decided to sign a low-end, one-year contract with a base salary
of $450,000. Coming off his second serious knee injury this past
season, Bryson wasn’t exactly a hot commodity on the free agent
market.
The Fantasy Analysis: Detroit was a good spot for Bryson. It’s
a situation where he’ll likely be playing behind a back in James
Stewart who has had trouble staying on the field and where new
Head Coach Steve Marriuci is known for rotating his RBs in a
committee situation. If Bryson can prove (again) that he can be
effective coming off his (second) serious knee injury, he might be
able to cash in on a better contract in 2004. A decent fit for the
Lion offense, Bryson has good size and power, has good speed when
100%, and is a capable receiver. When he’s healthy (it remains to be
seen if he’ll regain his speed this year), Bryson is an effective back
– he rushed for 130 yard and 2 TDs in one of his last starts in 2001,
for example. But he’s someone to consider only very late in your draft
or if it looks like he’ll collect substantial playing time in 2003,
and only if he’s fully recovered and effective coming off his knee
injury of last October.
MarTay Jenkins (WR, signed by Atl from Ari)
The Skinny: Atlanta’s need for speed on offense was again
addressed with the signing of the former Cardinal Jenkins, who
somewhat surprisingly signed for the veteran minimum. Where exactly
Jenkins fits in with the Falcons will be a mystery at least until
training camp. He has the ability to challenge WR Brian Finneran
for a starting spot but might be better off serving as the team’s #3
wideout. Making matters more confusing is the presence of WRs
Trevor Gaylor and Quentin McCord, two solid backup players
at the position. If nothing else, the acquisition of Jenkins simply
adds to QB Michael Vick’s arsenal and upgrades their return
game, which can only help the young Falcon offense.
The Fantasy Analysis: Jenkins is certainly an interesting
fantasy option this year. He has good size, but the key to his game is
his blazing speed. Those two attributes could be utilized well by the
Falcons, especially playing half their games indoors on the carpet.
But Jenkins is far from an accomplished receiver. He did benefit
greatly in Arizona from the coaching of Jerry Sullivan, one of
the league’s best receivers coaches, so if he wins the starting job
this summer, he will be worthy of your consideration late in your
draft. Most likely, he’ll be a member of a WRs committee and an
inconsistent performer, although with Vick’s arm, Peerless Price
commanding attention, and Finneran and TE Alge Crumpler
occupying the intermediate area, Jenkins will likely make a few big
plays downfield while working against single coverage.
Mike Hollis (PK, signed by NYG from Buf)
The Skinny: One of the most accurate kickers in league history,
Hollis was fifth among AFC kickers with 115 points for Buffalo last
season. He hit on 25 of 33 field goal attempts, including 10 of 15
from 40 yards or longer, and three from 50 yards or longer. Hollis’
contract was reportedly a five-year deal worth just over $4 million.
The Fantasy Analysis: By the end of the season last year, the
Giant offense was virtually unstoppable, but they lacked a reliable
kicker. Last year’s kicker, Matt Bryant, started off strong and
then slumped a little down the stretch. He probably cost the team a
playoff win against the 49ers by missing a 4th quarter
42-yard FG and failing to spike the ball on a muffed snap on the last
play of the game. Hollis isn’t as good as he once was, but he’s a rock
solid veteran who should be able to handle the (sometimes) tough
kicking conditions in northern New Jersey. The Giants attempted a
solid 32 field goals last year, and if they continue to have their
problems in the red zone, Hollis should be a busy man, and he should
finish the season as a top-10 fantasy kicker. He’s a great backup
fantasy kicker or even a starter, assuming you grab him at a major
discount late in your draft.
Rian Lindell (PK, signed by Buf from Sea)
The Skinny: Buffalo signed the restricted free agent Lindell to
a four-year, $4.2 million offer sheet that the Seahawks declined to
match.
The Fantasy Analysis: Lindell has been a little uneven in his
relatively short career, which is why the Seahawks considered
releasing him a few times, but he came on and performed well,
particularly in the clutch, last year, hitting 23 of 29 FG attempts.
He’s no lock to remain consistent in Buffalo, especially when it’s
cold in November and December, but on this improved team, he
definitely has a chance to kick over 25 FGs this year, making him a
decent backup candidate.
John Hall (PK, signed by Was from NYJ)
The Skinny: The Redskins were in much worse shape at kicker
than the Giants were last year, so the acquisition of Hall was a good
one. The Redskins, however, did overpay for him, signing him to a
five-year, $7.13 million contract.
The Fantasy Analysis: Place kickers, in general, have the
reputation for being a little flaky, and Hall is a guy who perpetuates
that image. Hall is coming off a successful season in which he hit 24
of 31 FG attempts, but his career success rate is only 73%. He has one
of the strongest legs in the league and is excellent on kickoffs, but
he’s a little erratic and had never been a guy you can count on as
your starter. On a team that will likely struggle early because of a
tough schedule and a lack of chemistry due to all their off-season
acquisitions, Hall remains only a backup fantasy kicker.
Desmond Clark (TE, signed by Chi from Mia)
The Skinny: The former Bronco and Dolphin Clark signed a
whopping six-year, $12 million contract with the Bears in March. Clark
wanted a chance to start, and he should get that in Chicago, although
he’ll have to compete with John Davis, who was re-signed this
off-season.
The Fantasy Analysis: A former WR, Clark has good hands and
excellent speed. The Bears wanted more speed from their TE this year,
so they brought Clark into the fold. He should lose scoring
opportunities to Davis, but as long as he emerges from camp with the
starting job, he should produce solid yardage totals and 3-5 TDs. He’s
not a fantasy starter, but he’s a nice choice as a backup because
there’s some upside here.
Leon Johnson (RB, signed by Stl from Chi)
The Skinny: The former Jet and Bear signed a one-year contract
with the Rams worth $545,000. He is expected to replace Trung
Canidate as the 3rd down back and will also compete
with Lamar Gordon for the backup job behind Marshall Faulk.
The Fantasy Analysis: This signing is more important
than it appears because it begs the crucial question of who will back
up Faulk and carry the load if the star player goes down. Nothing is
etched in stone right now, but we feel that Johnson may have an edge
over Gordon, at least in terms of any 3rd down or spot duty
with Faulk healthy because he’s a better blocker and better in pass
protection than Gordon. But if Faulk went down for an extended period
of time, Gordon, the more elusive back, would be a better fit for the
offense as the featured back. The bottom line here is that we have to
see how both perform in training camp. For now, we’d have to say that
Gordon is still the guy to target as protection for Faulk with Johnson
more of a role player.
Jay Riemersma (TE, signed by Pit from Buf)
The Skinny: The former Bill, grossly underused last year in
Buffalo, signed a three-year, $3.9 million contract in March that
included an $850,000 signing bonus.
The Fantasy Analysis: Last year, Steeler TEs caught only 18
passes for 350 yards, but that’s about to change. Riemersma’s old team
last year greatly reduced the role of the TE, but the Steelers are
about to do the opposite, as evidenced by the amount of money they
paid the 30-year old Riemersma. It makes a ton of sense for the
Steelers, now a passing team, to acquire a viable pass-catching TE,
and Riemersma is still a good one. He’ll compete for the ball with
Jerame Tuman, but under Mike Mularkey, a former TE,
Riemersma should catch 40+ passes and has a chance to score 5+ TDs.
And if the team releases last year’s starter Mark Bruener, that
will be a clear indication that they want their TEs to catch more than
they block. Riemersma has good potential here, but he could also turn
out to be this year’s version of David Sloan (who did nothing
last year), so he’s by no means someone you should draft as a starter.
Dan Campbell (TE, signed by Dal from NYG)
The Skinny: The former Giant and Texas native signed a
three-year contract with the Cowboys. Terms were not disclosed, but
the deal was believed to contain a $1.3 million signing bonus, with a
first-year cap value of $970,000. Campbell will compete with Tony
McGee and possibly James Whalen for the starting
job/playing time.
The Fantasy Analysis: Although he’s not guaranteed a starting
job, our money’s on him to make a nice impact for the Cowboys, the
team he grew up rooting for. At 6’5" and 263-pounds, Campbell has the
size and bulk Bill Parcells likes in his TE, and he’s also a
capable receiver. Campbell is also familiar with assistant head coach
Sean Payton from their days with the Giants. He should see the
field plenty, and we expect him to have 3-4 productive games, making
him a viable fantasy backup.
Donald Hayes (WR, signed by Jac from NE)
The Skinny: The former Panther and Patriot wideout signed a
one-year deal with the Jaguars that could be worth close to $1 million
this season if he reaches certain incentives. A huge disappointment in
New England, Hayes will challenge for a starting job in Jacksonville.
The Fantasy Analysis: The Patriots signed Hayes last
year because of his great size and his ability to be a serious force
in the red zone. But not only did he turn out to be a poor fit for
their offense, but he also struggled to learn it and spent most of the
season on the bench. There is a reason the Jaguars are optimistic that
Hayes can rebound after his nightmare 2002 season, and that’s
offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, who coached Hayes in
Carolina and is convinced that he can perform much better in a similar
offense in Jacksonville. If Hayes, who has good speed to go along with
his excellent size, wins the starting job coming out of training camp,
he’ll be a worthy pick as your #4 or #5 receiver, but there’s no
question that this once-promising receiver has limited upside
potential. Look for him to be in a dogfight for that starting job this
summer, too.
Ernie Conwell (TE, signed by NO from Stl)
The Skinny: The Saints on Monday agreed to a five-year
contract with the former Ram Conwell that is believed to be worth
$8.25 million.
The Fantasy Analysis: Conwell is a solid all-around TE, but so
is David Sloan (when healthy), so look for both to play plenty
in the team’s two-TE sets. The Saints are hell-bent on getting
production from their TE, as evidenced by this signing. Heck, they may
take a top TE in the draft. Conwell will be the safest bet to make an
impact, but it’s hard to expect much from him with Sloan and Eddie
"Boo" Williams still currently on the roster. That may change, but
for now the person who will benefit most from this signing is QB
Aaron Brooks, who will have another reliable receiver who can run
after the catch to throw to in Conwell.
Brandon Stokley (WR, signed by Ind from Bal)
The Skinny: Stokley signed a two-year, $2.9 million contract
and will likely be the team’s #3 WR along with Marvin Harrison
and Reggie Wayne.
The Fantasy Analysis: The Colts didn’t exactly make good use of
their three WRs last year (Harrison, Wayne and Qadry Ismail).
Harrison is, of course, the go-to guy, and that will not change, but
the team needs more from someone else. Stokely and Wayne are better
off playing in the slot, but it will likely be Stokely who sees most
of the time there. He can make plays downfield, but he’s also a decent
possession receiver who, if used correctly, can make an impact working
the intermediate area. But he’s had a lot of problems with injuries in
the past, and you just can’t count on the Colts producing a consistent
fantasy receiver other than Harrison, so he won’t be worthy of
drafting even as your #4 or #5 WR this year.
Chad Morton (RB, signed by Was from NYJ)
The Skinny: After an arbitrator ruled that the Jets failed to
match the five-year, $8 million offer sheet the Redskins signed Morton
to last month, Morton became a Redskin. He will be the team’s primary
kick returner, but he may also have a role in the backfield or even as
a receiver.
The Fantasy Analysis: Although he’s not an accomplished punt
returner, he’s an excellent kick returner, and he will immediately
upgrade the Redskins return game and will afford the offense better
field position on a consistent basis. But in addition to that, the
team is projecting 10-15 offensive plays a game for the speedy Morton,
so he could chip away at projected starter Trung Canidate’s
value. If nothing else, Morton’s ability to play in the Redskin
backfield makes a committee situation at RB more likely in Washington,
so there are some definite fantasy implications. Morton himself, even
if he gets the 10-15 plays a game, will have minimal fantasy value at
the RB position.
Mark Edwards (FB, signed by Jac from NE)
The Skinny: The former Patriot signed a three-year deal last
month worth $3 million that included a signing bonus of $875,000. In
addition to opening up holes for RB Fred Taylor, Edwards will
be active in the new offense’s passing game, and he should also get
the occasional goal line carry.
The Fantasy Analysis: If you’re in a league that for whatever
reason places value on one of the more active FBs in the league, then
take a look at Edwards. He’s a good blocker (good news for Taylor),
but he’s also quietly been an effective short-yardage receiver and
runner the last few years. In the new West Coast Offense, he could
catch 40+ passes, and with the team occupied with keeping Taylor
healthy, he could surprise with 4-5 TDs.
Richie Anderson (FB, signed by Dal from NYJ)
The Skinny: The former Jet will be reunited with head coach
Bill Parcells after signing a three-year, $3.9 million contract
that included an $800,000 signing bonus. The 10-year veteran, 32-year
old Anderson will be the team’s starting FB.
The Fantasy Analysis: As it stands now, Anderson has a good
chance to be the primary receiver out of the backfield for the
Cowboys. In his Pro Bowl season of 2000, Anderson had 88 catches for
853 yards and 2 TDs (but only 63 yards rushing). He’ll be used as a
blocker, too, but if he makes an impact, it will be as a receiver.
Parcells would not have made a strong push to sign him if he didn’t
plan on utilizing his receiving skills, so look for Anderson to finish
with over 500 yards receiving and to score 3-4 TDs.
Mark Campbell (TE, signed by Buf from Cle)
The Skinny: Campbell was actually traded to the Bills, so this
was not a free agency move. He was moved for an undisclosed draft
pick.
The Fantasy Analysis: On the surface, this may seem like a
fairly significant move, since Campbell should win the starting TE job
in Buffalo. But the TE was almost completely ignored in the Bill
offense last year, and that will likely be the case this year.
Campbell is a big and physical blocker, so this signing is better news
for RB Travis Henry than anyone else.
Lorenzo Neal (FB, signed by SD from Cin)
The Skinny: Neal in February signed a three-year contract worth
$4.5 million with the Chargers.
The Fantasy Analysis: Neal, as you likely know, has virtually
no fantasy value, but he’s still one of the best blocking FBs in the
game and he can only help RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Neal, one of
the best lead-blockers in the league, has blocked for six straight
1000-yard rushers, and he’s coming off his first Pro Bowl berth in
2002. In addition to absorbing some hits for Tomlinson, Neal, also
excellent in pass protection, will even help the Charger passing game.
Ricky Proehl (WR, signed by Car from Stl)
The Skinny: The veteran receiver signed a three-year, $3
million contract with the Panthers.
The Fantasy Analysis: More than anything, Proehl will give the
Panther passing game a reliable receiver who will help the offense
with his leadership and ability to make the occasional key 3rd
down catch. He’s the #4 receiver here, so he has very little fantasy
value on his own.
Brian Mitchell (RB, signed by NYG from NYJ)
The Skinny: The former Redskin and Eagle kick returner stayed
in the NFC East by signing a four-year, $3.55 million deal with the
Giants.
The Fantasy Analysis: If your league includes special team TDs,
this signing immediately upgrades the Giant defense. Mitchell is no
longer a dominant return man, but he’s still one of the best in the
league and is a good bet to score 1-2 return TDs. He’ll definitely
help the Giant offense field position-wise as well.
Reggie Kelly (TE, signed by Cin from Atl)
The Skinny: The former #1 pick of the Falcons signed a
four-year contract, worth $6.8 million with the Bengals last month.
The Fantasy Analysis: Kelly is a decent receiver, but he’s
known more for his blocking. So although he should start ahead of TEs
Matt Schobel and Sean Brewer, don’t expect him to
suddenly emerge as a fantasy threat at the position.
Doug Brien (PK, signed by NYJ from FA)
The Skinny: The Jets signed Brien after losing free agent John
Hall to the Redskins. We didn’t even bother to research the specifics of
the contract because we’re sure he won’t be the team’s opening day
kicker.
The Fantasy Analysis: Brien was horrible last year for the
Viking and it’s now been several years since he was an effective kicker.
The Jets will find a better option before Week One.
Defensive Free Agency Review
by Adam Caplan
Special Contributor, The Guru Report
- Takeo Spikes
(LB, signed by Buf from Cin)
The Skinny: The former Bengal linebacker was designated as
Buffalo’s transition player but signed a six-year offer sheet with the
Bills, which the Bengals declined to match.
The Fantasy Analysis: Buffalo’s biggest problem the past
few seasons has been on defense, not offense. Spikes will immediately
improve their defense because of his talent and leadership. The Bill
defensive scheme will allow him to roam free, so fantasy owners should
expect him to put up solid tackle numbers and a few sacks this year.
This is a huge signing from a defensive team perspective because he
becomes their best defensive player from day one. He’s that good.
- Rosevelt Colvin
(LB, signed by NE from Chi)
The Skinny: The former Bear outside linebacker signed a
six-year deal with the Patriots.
The Fantasy Analysis: Because the Patriots plan to use more of
a 3-4 scheme this season, Colvin figures to have a huge impact on
their pass rush. He’ll be able to rush the passer almost exclusively,
and he should be a lock for double-digit sacks. In fact, he could have
as many as 16-18 if he stays healthy. From a team defensive
standpoint, the improved pass rush will have a positive ripple effect.
The bottom line is that this is a huge signing for fantasy and NFL
purposes.
- Hugh Douglas
(DE, signed by Jac from Phi)
The Skinny: The former Jet and Eagle defensive end signed a
five-year deal with the Jaguars.
The Fantasy Analysis: Although he’s getting up there in age,
Douglas will provide the Jaguars with a consistent pass rush. His
knees were a small issue last year, but he’ll get to play on grass for
the rest of his career in Jacksonville, which will help. As far as
fantasy defensive linemen are concerned, Douglas has always been one
of the pass rushers in the league and an above-average tackle guy, and
we see him keeping up with that trend with his new team. Since they
have had a weak pass rush the past few seasons, he’ll improve
Jacksonville’s defense right away fantasy-wise.
- Chris Claiborne
(LB, signed by Min from Det)
The Skinny: The former Lion linebacker signed a two-year deal
with the Vikings and will take over on the outside.
The Fantasy Analysis: Fantasy baseball owners can compare this
signing with the Phillies’ signing of former Brave P Kevin
Millwood, who basically fell into their lap. The Vikings weren’t
even in the picture to sign Claiborne, but he suddenly signed within
48 hours of the first serious talks with his new team. His knock on
him this past year was that he played about 15-20 pounds heavier than
his ideal playing weight of around 250. If Claiborne can lose about 15
pounds, he should have an immediate impact and help their fantasy
defense in a big way. As a tackler, he’s always been above average,
and he should continue that trend with his new team, although Greg
Biekert will probably get more tackles playing in the middle. The
Vikings have the makings of a really improved fantasy defense.
- Vonnie Holliday
(DE, signed by KC from GB)
The Skinny: The former Packer starting defensive end signed a
five-year deal and will handle the same role for the Chiefs, taking
over for Duane Clemons, who was released.
The Fantasy Analysis: Holliday has been a productive player in
the past, but injuries have prevented him from becoming an elite end.
The Chiefs, with one of the worst pass rushes in the league last year,
rolled the dice and paid him big money, so they will be counting on
him for major production. If Holliday can stay healthy, he’ll put up
above-average tackle and sack numbers, but his biggest impact will
come on the team defensive side. If he can be the solid pass rusher
the Chiefs so desperately need, that will help their much-maligned
secondary, which is one of the key reasons the Chiefs coveted an
impact DE this off-season.
- Kevin Hardy
(LB, signed by Cin from Dal)
The Skinny: The former Jaguar and Cowboy linebacker signed a
four-year deal and is expected to start inside for veteran LB Brian
Simmons, who would move to the outside.
The Fantasy Analysis: Hardy has been a decent tackler in the
past, but because he’ll play inside, he should have the best year of
his career as far as tackles are concerned. He’ll also record a few
sacks, so Hardy figures to be a worthy starter for fantasy owners, and
he’ll also make an immediate positive impact on Marvin Lewis’
revamped defense.
- Shawn Barber
(LB, signed by KC from Phi)
The Skinny: The former Redskin and Eagle outside linebacker is
expected to start outside for the Chiefs, taking the place of veteran
LB Mike Maslowski. The team is expected to move Maslowski
inside to start for veteran LB Marvcus Patton.
The Fantasy Analysis: Barber proved last season that he was
fully recovered from an ACL injury and had a good season with the
Eagles. The Chief outside linebackers have a history of putting up
good tackle numbers, and we see no reason Barber won’t be solid for
the Chiefs.
- Nate Wayne
(LB, signed by Phi from GB)
The Skinny: The former Bronco and Packer outside linebacker
signed a four-year deal with the Eagles. He’ll start outside for the
Eagles, replacing LB Shawn Barber, who signed with the Chiefs.
The Fantasy Analysis: Two years ago, Wayne was looking like one
of the better outside linebackers in the league. Last year, though, he
was clearly worn down by knee problems and didn’t have a good year. In
fact, after he signed with the Eagles, some of his former coaches said
some unpleasant things about his play last year. If Wayne’s knee
problems are behind him, he could return to his high level of play of
two years ago. If they aren’t, he’ll be just a mediocre player. One
other note to point out is that the Eagle outside linebackers have
been only average tacklers in the past, so Wayne might not be that
good from a fantasy standpoint with his new team. He will, however,
he’ll help their fantasy defense if he’s healthy.
- Earl Holmes
(LB, signed by Det from Cle)
The Skinny: The former Steeler and Brown linebacker signed a
three-year deal with the Lions.
The Fantasy Analysis: Holmes is expected to be the new starting
middle linebacker, talking over for Chris Claiborne, who signed
with the Vikings. Holmes has always been a proficient tackler, but
last year his knees started giving him problems, so that’s a concern.
If healthy, he’ll be a very solid tackler, and since he’s playing on a
bad team and should be on the field a long time, he should put up good
tackle numbers.
- Mike Peterson
(LB, signed by Jac from Ind)
The Skinny: The former Colt outside linebacker signed a six-year
deal with the Jaguars and will take over outside for T.J.
Slaughter, who is expected to move inside for Wali Rainer,
who signed with the Lions.
The Fantasy Analysis: Peterson has always been a good tackle
guy, and he should be with the Jaguars, provided his knees, issues for
him the past two seasons, hold up. As one of the better LBs in the
league for tackles, he should help their fantasy defense on a weekly
basis.
- Rodney Harrison
(S, signed by NE from SD)
The Skinny: The former Charger safety signed a six-year deal
with the Patriots. He’ll take over for S Tebucky Jones, who is
on the verge of being traded to the Saints.
The Fantasy Analysis: Harrison was leaning toward signing with
the Raiders when the Patriots swooped in and scooped him up. Harrison,
although getting up in age and injury prone, can still make big plays
and will be a solid #2 fantasy defensive back in any scoring system,
thanks to his tackling. The negative is that he will have to share the
defensive area with veteran S Lawyer Milloy, who is also a
playmaker in the secondary.
- Denard Walker
(CB, signed by Min from Den)
The Skinny: The former Titan and Bronco cornerback signed a
four-year contract with the Vikings.
The Fantasy Analysis: For the first time in a long while, the
Vikings finally have a shutdown cornerback. From a fantasy
perspective, Walker’s impact will be on the team’s defensive ends.
Teams rarely challenge the talented Walker, so with him on the field
opposing QBs will likely be forced to hold on to the ball a little
longer. If the team can get a better pass rush up front, they’ll have
the makings of a decent fantasy defense. We certainly haven’t
described the Viking defense as "decent" in a long time.
- Dwayne Rudd
(LB, signed by TB from Cle)
The Skinny: The former Viking and Brown outside linebacker
signed a two-year contract with the Buccaneers. He’ll take over for
former starting outside linebacker Al Singleton, who signed
with the Cowboys.
The Fantasy Analysis: As if the Buccaneers needed another good
linebacker! Although Rudd is a bit inconsistent for our liking, he’ll
still be a solid tackler for fantasy owners and a decent #2 fantasy
linebacker in most scoring systems. By adding yet another playmaker on
defense, Tampa’s fantasy value as a team remains through the roof.
- Orlando Ruff
(LB, signed by NO from SD)
The Skinny: The former Charger inside linebacker signed a
three-year deal with the Saints, where he will take over for veteran
LB Charlie Clemons, who signed with Houston.
The Fantasy Analysis: Since the Saint middle linebackers
have a solid history of recording good tackle numbers, Ruff is a
sleeper in the making. Though he isn’t the most talented player, he’s
a decent tackler – one you can select late in your draft – and he
could pay off nicely.
- Ashley Ambrose
(CB, signed by NO from Atl)
The Skinny: The former Falcon cornerback signed for the second
time with the Saints, this time for four seasons.
The Fantasy Analysis: Ambrose won’t make much of an impact from
the fantasy player standpoint, but he will give their defense a
shutdown-type corner, something they have really lacked since he left
four years ago to play for the Falcons. That fact alone will make the
Saint defense a better unit from a fantasy perspective.
- Dexter Jackson
(S, signed by Ari from TB)
The Skinny: The Super Bowl MVP signed a five-year deal with the
Cardinals.
The Fantasy Analysis: Jackson’s not as good as some
would seem to believe, but he’ll still put up decent tackle numbers
and record a few interceptions. His biggest impact will come from a
defensive team perspective, replacing veteran S Kwamie Lassiter,
who won’t be re-signed.
- John Thornton
(DT, signed by Cin from Ten)
The Skinny: The former Titan defensive lineman signed a
six-year contract with the Bengals.
The Fantasy Analysis: Although Thornton can play inside or
outside, he’ll play at tackle with his new team. They’ll probably play
him at end on passing downs. Even though he’s not likely to put up
good fantasy numbers, he’ll help the Bengals’ team defense because
he’s solid against the run and also a decent pass rusher.
- Corey Hall
(S, signed by Atl from Cin)
The Skinny: The former Bengal safety signed a five-year deal
with the Falcons.
The Fantasy Analysis: Hall has been penciled in as a starter
and is a better than average tackler who will record a few
interceptions. Although he’s not a great playmaker, he’ll help their
secondary, which has been inconsistent over the past few seasons.
- Chike Okeafor
(DE, signed by Sea from SF)
The Skinny: The former 49er defensive end signed a two-year
deal with the Seahawks.
The Fantasy Analysis: Although he’s been mostly a part-time
player in the past, Okeafor, should garner a lot more playing time
with the pass rush starved Seahawks. If used correctly, Okeafor could
approach double-digit sacks this season, so he’s someone to keep an
eye on.
- Mark Simoneau
(LB, signed by Phi from Atl)
The Skinny: The Former Falcon linebacker was actually traded to
the Eagles for a sixth-round pick this year and a fourth in 2004.
The Fantasy Analysis: His problem hasn’t been talent, but
rather being able to play through nagging injuries. Simoneau has been
penciled in as the starting middle linebacker, and he has good enough
ability to be a solid late round sleeper for tackles.
- Keith Newman
(LB, signed by Atl from Buf)
The Skinny: The former Bill linebacker signed a three-year deal
with the Falcons.
The Fantasy Analysis: This is actually a good situation for
Newman because he’ll get to play outside in the Falcon 3-4 defensive
scheme, which will give him a solid chance to rush the passer,
something he can definitely do. We see him as a possible solid sleeper
late in your draft, as long as he wins the starting job.
- Barry Gardner
(LB, signed by Cle from Phi)
The Skinny: The former Eagle linebacker signed a two-year deal
with the Browns. The second-year can actually be voided, making him a
free agent.
The Fantasy Analysis: The starting middle linebacker job is
currently Gardner’s to lose, but he’ll have to compete for it (possibly
against a rookie) before it’s all said and done. The Brown middle
linebackers have put up decent numbers the past few years, so if Gardner
can win the job, he could turn out to be a solid #3 linebacker as far as
tackles are concerned. However, he’s a bit slow and won’t make many big
plays.
Honorable Mention:
- Charlie Clemons (LB, signed by Hou from NO) – The former Ram
and Saint linebacker will vie for a starting job outside in the Texan
3-4 scheme. Clemons is a good pass rusher, so he could actually be a
nice late round sleeper who could put up near double-digit sacks,
provided he starts.
- James Darling (LB, signed by Ari from NYJ) – The former Eagle
and Jet linebacker should start outside, taking over for veteran LB
Rob Fredrickson, who is unsigned and not expected to return. This
is actually a good situation for Darling, and we see him putting up
decent tackle numbers. Playing on bad teams usually helps tackle
numbers.
- Wali Rainer (LB, signed by Det from Jac) – The former Brown
and Jaguar linebacker will compete for a starting job but may wind up
backing up Earl Holmes. If he is given a chance to start
outside, he could actually be decent in that role. Time will tell.
- Ike Reese (S, signed by Buf from Den) – The former Cowboy and
Bronco safety will compete against veteran S Pierson Prioleau
for a starting job. Prioleau put up big tackle numbers for a while
last season, so whoever wins the job may be worth a serious look.
- Montae Reagor (DT, signed by Ind from Den) – The Colts paid
big money for Reagor, who was a backup with the Broncos. Maybe they
know something we don’t here. The bottom line is that he will start
for the Colts, has a high motor, and has a decent upside. We’ll see
how he progresses in training camp.
- Dre Bly (CB, signed by Det from Stl) – The Lions struck
quickly at the start of free agency and probably overpaid for the
former Ram cornerback. Bly will give up a lot of big plays because of
his diminutive size, but he’ll record above-average tackle numbers for
a cornerback because teams will pick on him, and he’ll record a decent
number of interceptions. However, he’s average at best in coverage, so
from a team defensive standpoint, he likely won’t help that much.
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