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Fantasy Football Articles:

Free Agency Review (Part II)
by John Hansen
Publisher, The Guru Report
Defensive Analysis by Adam Caplan
April 15, 2003


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There are still a handful of free agent skill players yet to know the colors of their 2003 uniform – if they have one at all – but it’s now safe to say the bulk of this year’s free agency activity has passed. As we suspected, the most interesting player movement happened early in the game and was covered in Part I of this article. To put this year’s free agent movement into perspective, we’ve ranked all moves below in terms of their fantasy impacts. If you’d like to read the analysis for the players covered in Part I, head here:
http://www.fantasyguru.com/NFL-free-agent-signings.html

Below the offensive players, fantasy defense maven Adam Caplan has ranked his top-22 free agent moves from the defensive side of the ball and also added some honorable mentions. As always, keep in mind all the analysis below is from a fantasy football perspective. This is especially important to remember when reading the defensive analysis.

  1. Stephen Davis (RB, signed by Car from Was) – See Analysis in Free Agency Review Part I
     
  2. David Boston (WR, signed by SD from Ari) – See Analysis in Free Agency Review Part I
     
  3. Peerless Price (WR, traded from Buf to Atl) – See Analysis in Free Agency Review Part I
     
  4. Laveranues Coles (WR, signed by Was from NYJ)

    The Skinny: Coles last month agreed to a seven-year, $35 million offer sheet from the Redskins.
    Coles’ signing bonus was $13 million, the largest in Redskin history. The Jets, who tendered the restricted free agent only a $1.3 million offer rather than a $1.8 million offer (which would have commanded a 3rd round pick in addition to the 1st rounder), opted not to match Washington’s offer. They did so mainly because it was actually more than the four-year receiver was asking for. The Redskins had no qualms about giving up the money and their 13th pick overall for Coles. The Jets, meanwhile, didn’t feel the player was worth the money, especially since losing him netted them such a high first round draft pick.

    The Fantasy Analysis: In today’s NFL, the 5’11", 196-pound Coles isn’t considered a prototypical WR, but he’s exactly what Steve Spurrier wants in his offense. Coles runs a 4.3 40, runs excellent routes, has superb hands, and will give Spurrier a legitimate deep and run-after-the-catch guy. He should also have more opportunities to find the endzone in Washington. It should be pointed out, though, that Coles’ chemistry with QB Chad Pennington last year developed over a three-year period and that it may take time for him to develop anything close to that in Washington with Patrick Ramsey. But the bottom line is that Coles will step in as the team’s #1 WR – with fellow starter Rod Gardner the possession guy – and Coles could still catch 100+ balls in this pass-happy system. At 26 years old and having proved himself as an elite NFL receiver, Coles appears to be a can’t-miss fantasy player in this system. The one factor that could slow him down, though, is the (potentially slow) development of Ramsey. There is little doubt Ramsey will be an effective NFL QB for quite some time, but it’s hard to say for sure that he’ll flourish in just his second year in the league, especially with a real tough schedule the first month of the season. But as long as Ramsey, who will at least have the benefit of two training camps with Spurrier, is coming along well this summer and there is nothing close to a QB controversy in Washington, Coles’ potential will easily prompt us to advocate him as a #2 fantasy WR.
     

  5. Jake Plummer (QB, signed by Den from Ari) – See Analysis in Free Agency Review Part I
     
  6. Stacey Mack (RB, signed by Hou from Jac)

    The Skinny: Mack, who has averaged a solid 4.0 yards per carry while rushing for 1,498 yards and 19 touchdowns during his four-year career, signed what is believed to be a one-year contract with the Texans last week worth only $530,000 plus a small signing bonus. Texan head coach Dom Capers was the Jaguars' defensive coordinator during Mack's first two seasons in Jacksonville, but Mack, who passed on better offers from the Jaguars and Giants, signed with Houston and for only one year for one simple reason: He wanted a legitimate chance to start.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Mack was a very average back in 1999-00, but he showed noticeable improvement in 2001 and 2002, so he’s an interesting fantasy option this coming season. Although his speed is nothing special, he has shown the ability to bust off a long run on occasion; has good size, which makes him an effective inside/goal line runner; and he is more explosive than last year’s starter, Jon Wells. Speaking of Wells, he’ll be hard-pressed to beat Mack out for the starting job (even though Wells has lost some weight in an attempt to improve his burst to the hole, which was terrible last year). Assuming the team doesn’t invest a high pick on a top back in the draft, expect Mack to open the season as the starter in Texas and have a season that will make him very worthy of being drafted as a #3 fantasy back. That is if – and we repeat if – his OL isn’t a total mess again come September.
     

  7. Curtis Conway (WR, signed by NYJ from SD)

    The Skinny: After losing Coles to the Redskins, the Jets wasted little time signing the 10-year veteran Conway, who was released earlier in the year by the Chargers. Conway’s deal was a three-year one that included a signing bonus of $1.2 million and could pay him as much as $7.5 million. In Conway, the Jets finally have a receiver with size – someone who is an ideal fit for their offense. He will immediately step in as the team’s #1 WR.

    The Fantasy Analysis: There are those who believe Conway, at 32, has lost a step. He may no longer be the great deep threat he was with the Bears in, say, 1995, but he’s still a fast receiver who can make plays downfield, and he’s definitely not afraid to go over the middle. For the last two years in San Diego, despite questionable play at QB and a shaky supporting cast at receiver, Conway performed at a very high level. Conway, with an accurate and efficient QB in Chad Pennington at the helm, could easily be an excellent #2 fantasy receiver for the Jets this year, but there are two obvious reasons why you should draft him only as a #3. One, although he plays as hard as anyone, durability has always been a big concern with him, and it certainly is at his advancing age and on the heels of a season that saw him miss four games due to a shoulder injury. In ten seasons, Conway has started all 16 games only four times. Secondly, the transition to the new offense and his new QB will not be one that will happen overnight, so he’ll probably be a little slow off the mark in New York, where he will also be under more pressure. Still, proven and legitimate #1 NFL receivers on good teams who are the #1 WR for those teams are hard to come by, so Conway should be worth the gamble this year and make a solid middle-round pick.
     

  8. Trung Canidate (RB, traded to Was from Stl)

    The Skinny: Canidate, who spent most of the last two seasons in Ram head coach Mike Martz’ dog house, was traded by the Rams to the Redskins for OG David Loverne and a 4th round pick in this year's draft. He is expected compete for and win the starting RB job in Washington this year.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Clearly, the Redskins covet Canidate’s blazing speed, but it’s good they didn’t give up too much to get him because he has plenty of issues. Let’s start with the fumbling – it prevented him from securing the backup job behind Marshall Faulk last year, and he certainly hasn’t proved he can keep the ball off the ground. He’s also been injury-prone since entering the league in 2000. Pass protection and blitz pickup aren’t his strong suits, either. Between the fumbling, the injuries, and the mistakes, Canidate is bound to spend at least a little time in "Chateau Bow Wow" in Washington. And with capable backs like Ladell Betts and Kenny Watson waiting in the wings, a committee situation seems likely and may even be the best case scenario for the 4th year back. Does he have upside potential in this system? Sure. Will he be worth taking even as a #2 RB? No way.
     

  9. Kordell Stewart (QB, signed by Chi from Pit) – See Analysis in Free Agency Review Part I
     
  10. Emmitt Smith (RB, signed by Ari from Dal)

    The Skinny: The NFL’s all-time leading rusher last month agreed to a two-year contract that is believed to have a $3 million signing bonus and salaries between $2 million and $2.5 million each season. Smith’s contract is also believed to include a provision that allows for "a partnership off the field," according to VP of football operations, Rod Graves. Smith, who didn’t seriously consider any other teams, is expected to open the season first on the depth chart and to also provide the team with excellent leadership and the younger players an example to follow. He’s also expected to put more bodies in the seats, since there is a strong Cowboy fan contingency in Arizona. Finally, Smith’s arrival in Arizona should signal the end of the Thomas Jones era in the Grand Canyon State.

    The Fantasy Analysis: While much has been made of how Smith’s star power will be a public relations boost for the downtrodden Cardinal franchise, the real story here is the hit RB Marcel Shipp’s fantasy value has taken. Smith, although on the serious downside at 34, can still play, and he’s incredibly durable, so Shipp’s 2003 value is reduced significantly. Smith doesn’t make people miss like he used to and at this point in his career is no longer a threat to bust off a long run, two things Shipp has over him. He’s also been less effective the last few years near the goal, another factor Shipp has over him. But the problem for Shipp is that Smith will get plenty of touches and, even if it’s in unspectacular fashion, he’ll grind out solid production behind a large Cardinal line, and he probably won’t get hurt, so Shipp’s fantasy value in 2003 is iffy at best. As for Smith himself, since Shipp will also play and has superior skills, and since the Cardinals will be a bad team that will not give him many scoring opportunities or 4th quarter leads to protect, Smith’s fantasy value is low, too. Personally, since he’ll be available very late in the draft and probably 3-4 rounds after Smith, I’d rather have Shipp, the better player, as my 4th or 5th RB and just hope for the best.
     

  11. Jeff Blake (QB, signed by Ari from Bal) – See Analysis in Free Agency Review Part I
     
  12. Jake Delhomme (QB, signed by Car from NO) – See Analysis in Free Agency Review Part I
     
  13. Ike Hilliard (WR, NYG, re-signed) – See Analysis in Free Agency Review Part I
     
  14. Derrius Thompson (WR, signed by Mia from Was) – See Analysis in Free Agency Review Part I
     
  15. Kevin Dyson (WR, signed by Car from Ten)

    The Skinny: The Titans were one of two teams to draft a WR in the first round of the 1998 draft, and they opted for Dyson over Randy Moss. Needless to say, Dyson never did live up to expectations in Tennessee. Injuries were a big problem, but Dyson hasn’t proven himself to be a viable #1 NFL receiver. The Panthers believe his hamstring injury from last year is fully healed and that he will be 100% entering training camp. Dyson’s contract was believed to have been a one-year deal worth $1 million, which could increase to nearly $2 million if he reaches certain incentives.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Dyson, 28, will compete for a starting job with WRs Muhsin Muhammad and Steve Smith. If he starts, it will likely be at Smith’s expense. The speedy Smith could then play in the slot and would give the team a nice trio of WRs. The Panther offense focuses on the run, but their ultimate goal is to have balance with the pass, and they are particularly fond of throwing the ball downfield, which is where Dyson should come in. Dyson, however, shouldn’t be a guy you can count on to start for your fantasy team. He’s injury-prone and the Panthers will hardly have a prolific passing game. Plus, the team will be distributing the ball between Dyson, Muhammad, Smith, and another new receiver, former Ram Ricky Proehl, so there will be only so much production to go around. Dyson makes a decent #4 or #5 receiver, though, and he could have nice value during the season if there’s an injury to Muhammad, who isn’t exactly an iron man.
     

  16. Terry Glenn (WR, traded from GB to Dal) – See Analysis in Free Agency Review Part I
     
  17. Shawn Bryson (RB, signed by Det from Buf)

    The Skinny: After garnering interest from a few other clubs, Bryson decided to sign a low-end, one-year contract with a base salary of $450,000. Coming off his second serious knee injury this past season, Bryson wasn’t exactly a hot commodity on the free agent market.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Detroit was a good spot for Bryson. It’s a situation where he’ll likely be playing behind a back in James Stewart who has had trouble staying on the field and where new Head Coach Steve Marriuci is known for rotating his RBs in a committee situation. If Bryson can prove (again) that he can be effective coming off his (second) serious knee injury, he might be able to cash in on a better contract in 2004. A decent fit for the Lion offense, Bryson has good size and power, has good speed when 100%, and is a capable receiver. When he’s healthy (it remains to be seen if he’ll regain his speed this year), Bryson is an effective back – he rushed for 130 yard and 2 TDs in one of his last starts in 2001, for example. But he’s someone to consider only very late in your draft or if it looks like he’ll collect substantial playing time in 2003, and only if he’s fully recovered and effective coming off his knee injury of last October.
     

  18. MarTay Jenkins (WR, signed by Atl from Ari)

    The Skinny: Atlanta’s need for speed on offense was again addressed with the signing of the former Cardinal Jenkins, who somewhat surprisingly signed for the veteran minimum. Where exactly Jenkins fits in with the Falcons will be a mystery at least until training camp. He has the ability to challenge WR Brian Finneran for a starting spot but might be better off serving as the team’s #3 wideout. Making matters more confusing is the presence of WRs Trevor Gaylor and Quentin McCord, two solid backup players at the position. If nothing else, the acquisition of Jenkins simply adds to QB Michael Vick’s arsenal and upgrades their return game, which can only help the young Falcon offense.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Jenkins is certainly an interesting fantasy option this year. He has good size, but the key to his game is his blazing speed. Those two attributes could be utilized well by the Falcons, especially playing half their games indoors on the carpet. But Jenkins is far from an accomplished receiver. He did benefit greatly in Arizona from the coaching of Jerry Sullivan, one of the league’s best receivers coaches, so if he wins the starting job this summer, he will be worthy of your consideration late in your draft. Most likely, he’ll be a member of a WRs committee and an inconsistent performer, although with Vick’s arm, Peerless Price commanding attention, and Finneran and TE Alge Crumpler occupying the intermediate area, Jenkins will likely make a few big plays downfield while working against single coverage.
     

  19. Mike Hollis (PK, signed by NYG from Buf)

    The Skinny: One of the most accurate kickers in league history, Hollis was fifth among AFC kickers with 115 points for Buffalo last season. He hit on 25 of 33 field goal attempts, including 10 of 15 from 40 yards or longer, and three from 50 yards or longer. Hollis’ contract was reportedly a five-year deal worth just over $4 million.

    The Fantasy Analysis: By the end of the season last year, the Giant offense was virtually unstoppable, but they lacked a reliable kicker. Last year’s kicker, Matt Bryant, started off strong and then slumped a little down the stretch. He probably cost the team a playoff win against the 49ers by missing a 4th quarter 42-yard FG and failing to spike the ball on a muffed snap on the last play of the game. Hollis isn’t as good as he once was, but he’s a rock solid veteran who should be able to handle the (sometimes) tough kicking conditions in northern New Jersey. The Giants attempted a solid 32 field goals last year, and if they continue to have their problems in the red zone, Hollis should be a busy man, and he should finish the season as a top-10 fantasy kicker. He’s a great backup fantasy kicker or even a starter, assuming you grab him at a major discount late in your draft.
     

  20. Rian Lindell (PK, signed by Buf from Sea)

    The Skinny: Buffalo signed the restricted free agent Lindell to a four-year, $4.2 million offer sheet that the Seahawks declined to match.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Lindell has been a little uneven in his relatively short career, which is why the Seahawks considered releasing him a few times, but he came on and performed well, particularly in the clutch, last year, hitting 23 of 29 FG attempts. He’s no lock to remain consistent in Buffalo, especially when it’s cold in November and December, but on this improved team, he definitely has a chance to kick over 25 FGs this year, making him a decent backup candidate.
     

  21. John Hall (PK, signed by Was from NYJ)

    The Skinny: The Redskins were in much worse shape at kicker than the Giants were last year, so the acquisition of Hall was a good one. The Redskins, however, did overpay for him, signing him to a five-year, $7.13 million contract.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Place kickers, in general, have the reputation for being a little flaky, and Hall is a guy who perpetuates that image. Hall is coming off a successful season in which he hit 24 of 31 FG attempts, but his career success rate is only 73%. He has one of the strongest legs in the league and is excellent on kickoffs, but he’s a little erratic and had never been a guy you can count on as your starter. On a team that will likely struggle early because of a tough schedule and a lack of chemistry due to all their off-season acquisitions, Hall remains only a backup fantasy kicker.
     

  22. Desmond Clark (TE, signed by Chi from Mia)

    The Skinny: The former Bronco and Dolphin Clark signed a whopping six-year, $12 million contract with the Bears in March. Clark wanted a chance to start, and he should get that in Chicago, although he’ll have to compete with John Davis, who was re-signed this off-season.

    The Fantasy Analysis: A former WR, Clark has good hands and excellent speed. The Bears wanted more speed from their TE this year, so they brought Clark into the fold. He should lose scoring opportunities to Davis, but as long as he emerges from camp with the starting job, he should produce solid yardage totals and 3-5 TDs. He’s not a fantasy starter, but he’s a nice choice as a backup because there’s some upside here.
     

  23. Leon Johnson (RB, signed by Stl from Chi)

    The Skinny: The former Jet and Bear signed a one-year contract with the Rams worth $545,000. He is expected to replace Trung Canidate as the 3rd down back and will also compete with Lamar Gordon for the backup job behind Marshall Faulk.

    The Fantasy Analysis: This signing is more important than it appears because it begs the crucial question of who will back up Faulk and carry the load if the star player goes down. Nothing is etched in stone right now, but we feel that Johnson may have an edge over Gordon, at least in terms of any 3rd down or spot duty with Faulk healthy because he’s a better blocker and better in pass protection than Gordon. But if Faulk went down for an extended period of time, Gordon, the more elusive back, would be a better fit for the offense as the featured back. The bottom line here is that we have to see how both perform in training camp. For now, we’d have to say that Gordon is still the guy to target as protection for Faulk with Johnson more of a role player.
     

  24. Jay Riemersma (TE, signed by Pit from Buf)

    The Skinny: The former Bill, grossly underused last year in Buffalo, signed a three-year, $3.9 million contract in March that included an $850,000 signing bonus.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Last year, Steeler TEs caught only 18 passes for 350 yards, but that’s about to change. Riemersma’s old team last year greatly reduced the role of the TE, but the Steelers are about to do the opposite, as evidenced by the amount of money they paid the 30-year old Riemersma. It makes a ton of sense for the Steelers, now a passing team, to acquire a viable pass-catching TE, and Riemersma is still a good one. He’ll compete for the ball with Jerame Tuman, but under Mike Mularkey, a former TE, Riemersma should catch 40+ passes and has a chance to score 5+ TDs. And if the team releases last year’s starter Mark Bruener, that will be a clear indication that they want their TEs to catch more than they block. Riemersma has good potential here, but he could also turn out to be this year’s version of David Sloan (who did nothing last year), so he’s by no means someone you should draft as a starter.
     

  25. Dan Campbell (TE, signed by Dal from NYG)

    The Skinny: The former Giant and Texas native signed a three-year contract with the Cowboys. Terms were not disclosed, but the deal was believed to contain a $1.3 million signing bonus, with a first-year cap value of $970,000. Campbell will compete with Tony McGee and possibly James Whalen for the starting job/playing time.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Although he’s not guaranteed a starting job, our money’s on him to make a nice impact for the Cowboys, the team he grew up rooting for. At 6’5" and 263-pounds, Campbell has the size and bulk Bill Parcells likes in his TE, and he’s also a capable receiver. Campbell is also familiar with assistant head coach Sean Payton from their days with the Giants. He should see the field plenty, and we expect him to have 3-4 productive games, making him a viable fantasy backup.
     

  26. Donald Hayes (WR, signed by Jac from NE)

    The Skinny: The former Panther and Patriot wideout signed a one-year deal with the Jaguars that could be worth close to $1 million this season if he reaches certain incentives. A huge disappointment in New England, Hayes will challenge for a starting job in Jacksonville.

    The Fantasy Analysis: The Patriots signed Hayes last year because of his great size and his ability to be a serious force in the red zone. But not only did he turn out to be a poor fit for their offense, but he also struggled to learn it and spent most of the season on the bench. There is a reason the Jaguars are optimistic that Hayes can rebound after his nightmare 2002 season, and that’s offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, who coached Hayes in Carolina and is convinced that he can perform much better in a similar offense in Jacksonville. If Hayes, who has good speed to go along with his excellent size, wins the starting job coming out of training camp, he’ll be a worthy pick as your #4 or #5 receiver, but there’s no question that this once-promising receiver has limited upside potential. Look for him to be in a dogfight for that starting job this summer, too.
     

  27. Ernie Conwell (TE, signed by NO from Stl)

    The Skinny: The Saints on Monday agreed to a five-year contract with the former Ram Conwell that is believed to be worth $8.25 million.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Conwell is a solid all-around TE, but so is David Sloan (when healthy), so look for both to play plenty in the team’s two-TE sets. The Saints are hell-bent on getting production from their TE, as evidenced by this signing. Heck, they may take a top TE in the draft. Conwell will be the safest bet to make an impact, but it’s hard to expect much from him with Sloan and Eddie "Boo" Williams still currently on the roster. That may change, but for now the person who will benefit most from this signing is QB Aaron Brooks, who will have another reliable receiver who can run after the catch to throw to in Conwell.
     

  28. Brandon Stokley (WR, signed by Ind from Bal)

    The Skinny: Stokley signed a two-year, $2.9 million contract and will likely be the team’s #3 WR along with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.

    The Fantasy Analysis: The Colts didn’t exactly make good use of their three WRs last year (Harrison, Wayne and Qadry Ismail). Harrison is, of course, the go-to guy, and that will not change, but the team needs more from someone else. Stokely and Wayne are better off playing in the slot, but it will likely be Stokely who sees most of the time there. He can make plays downfield, but he’s also a decent possession receiver who, if used correctly, can make an impact working the intermediate area. But he’s had a lot of problems with injuries in the past, and you just can’t count on the Colts producing a consistent fantasy receiver other than Harrison, so he won’t be worthy of drafting even as your #4 or #5 WR this year.
     

  29. Chad Morton (RB, signed by Was from NYJ)

    The Skinny: After an arbitrator ruled that the Jets failed to match the five-year, $8 million offer sheet the Redskins signed Morton to last month, Morton became a Redskin. He will be the team’s primary kick returner, but he may also have a role in the backfield or even as a receiver.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Although he’s not an accomplished punt returner, he’s an excellent kick returner, and he will immediately upgrade the Redskins return game and will afford the offense better field position on a consistent basis. But in addition to that, the team is projecting 10-15 offensive plays a game for the speedy Morton, so he could chip away at projected starter Trung Canidate’s value. If nothing else, Morton’s ability to play in the Redskin backfield makes a committee situation at RB more likely in Washington, so there are some definite fantasy implications. Morton himself, even if he gets the 10-15 plays a game, will have minimal fantasy value at the RB position.
     

  30. Mark Edwards (FB, signed by Jac from NE)

    The Skinny: The former Patriot signed a three-year deal last month worth $3 million that included a signing bonus of $875,000. In addition to opening up holes for RB Fred Taylor, Edwards will be active in the new offense’s passing game, and he should also get the occasional goal line carry.

    The Fantasy Analysis: If you’re in a league that for whatever reason places value on one of the more active FBs in the league, then take a look at Edwards. He’s a good blocker (good news for Taylor), but he’s also quietly been an effective short-yardage receiver and runner the last few years. In the new West Coast Offense, he could catch 40+ passes, and with the team occupied with keeping Taylor healthy, he could surprise with 4-5 TDs.
     

  31. Richie Anderson (FB, signed by Dal from NYJ)

    The Skinny: The former Jet will be reunited with head coach Bill Parcells after signing a three-year, $3.9 million contract that included an $800,000 signing bonus. The 10-year veteran, 32-year old Anderson will be the team’s starting FB.

    The Fantasy Analysis: As it stands now, Anderson has a good chance to be the primary receiver out of the backfield for the Cowboys. In his Pro Bowl season of 2000, Anderson had 88 catches for 853 yards and 2 TDs (but only 63 yards rushing). He’ll be used as a blocker, too, but if he makes an impact, it will be as a receiver. Parcells would not have made a strong push to sign him if he didn’t plan on utilizing his receiving skills, so look for Anderson to finish with over 500 yards receiving and to score 3-4 TDs.
     

  32. Mark Campbell (TE, signed by Buf from Cle)

    The Skinny: Campbell was actually traded to the Bills, so this was not a free agency move. He was moved for an undisclosed draft pick.

    The Fantasy Analysis: On the surface, this may seem like a fairly significant move, since Campbell should win the starting TE job in Buffalo. But the TE was almost completely ignored in the Bill offense last year, and that will likely be the case this year. Campbell is a big and physical blocker, so this signing is better news for RB Travis Henry than anyone else.
     

  33. Lorenzo Neal (FB, signed by SD from Cin)

    The Skinny: Neal in February signed a three-year contract worth $4.5 million with the Chargers.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Neal, as you likely know, has virtually no fantasy value, but he’s still one of the best blocking FBs in the game and he can only help RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Neal, one of the best lead-blockers in the league, has blocked for six straight 1000-yard rushers, and he’s coming off his first Pro Bowl berth in 2002. In addition to absorbing some hits for Tomlinson, Neal, also excellent in pass protection, will even help the Charger passing game.
     

  34. Ricky Proehl (WR, signed by Car from Stl)

    The Skinny: The veteran receiver signed a three-year, $3 million contract with the Panthers.

    The Fantasy Analysis: More than anything, Proehl will give the Panther passing game a reliable receiver who will help the offense with his leadership and ability to make the occasional key 3rd down catch. He’s the #4 receiver here, so he has very little fantasy value on his own.
     

  35. Brian Mitchell (RB, signed by NYG from NYJ)

    The Skinny: The former Redskin and Eagle kick returner stayed in the NFC East by signing a four-year, $3.55 million deal with the Giants.

    The Fantasy Analysis: If your league includes special team TDs, this signing immediately upgrades the Giant defense. Mitchell is no longer a dominant return man, but he’s still one of the best in the league and is a good bet to score 1-2 return TDs. He’ll definitely help the Giant offense field position-wise as well.
     

  36. Reggie Kelly (TE, signed by Cin from Atl)

    The Skinny: The former #1 pick of the Falcons signed a four-year contract, worth $6.8 million with the Bengals last month.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Kelly is a decent receiver, but he’s known more for his blocking. So although he should start ahead of TEs Matt Schobel and Sean Brewer, don’t expect him to suddenly emerge as a fantasy threat at the position.
     

  37. Doug Brien (PK, signed by NYJ from FA)

The Skinny: The Jets signed Brien after losing free agent John Hall to the Redskins. We didn’t even bother to research the specifics of the contract because we’re sure he won’t be the team’s opening day kicker.

The Fantasy Analysis: Brien was horrible last year for the Viking and it’s now been several years since he was an effective kicker. The Jets will find a better option before Week One.

Defensive Free Agency Review
by Adam Caplan
Special Contributor, The Guru Report

  1. Takeo Spikes (LB, signed by Buf from Cin)

    The Skinny: The former Bengal linebacker was designated as Buffalo’s transition player but signed a six-year offer sheet with the Bills, which the Bengals declined to match.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Buffalo’s biggest problem the past few seasons has been on defense, not offense. Spikes will immediately improve their defense because of his talent and leadership. The Bill defensive scheme will allow him to roam free, so fantasy owners should expect him to put up solid tackle numbers and a few sacks this year. This is a huge signing from a defensive team perspective because he becomes their best defensive player from day one. He’s that good.
     

  2. Rosevelt Colvin (LB, signed by NE from Chi)

    The Skinny: The former Bear outside linebacker signed a six-year deal with the Patriots.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Because the Patriots plan to use more of a 3-4 scheme this season, Colvin figures to have a huge impact on their pass rush. He’ll be able to rush the passer almost exclusively, and he should be a lock for double-digit sacks. In fact, he could have as many as 16-18 if he stays healthy. From a team defensive standpoint, the improved pass rush will have a positive ripple effect. The bottom line is that this is a huge signing for fantasy and NFL purposes.
     

  3. Hugh Douglas (DE, signed by Jac from Phi)

    The Skinny: The former Jet and Eagle defensive end signed a five-year deal with the Jaguars.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Although he’s getting up there in age, Douglas will provide the Jaguars with a consistent pass rush. His knees were a small issue last year, but he’ll get to play on grass for the rest of his career in Jacksonville, which will help. As far as fantasy defensive linemen are concerned, Douglas has always been one of the pass rushers in the league and an above-average tackle guy, and we see him keeping up with that trend with his new team. Since they have had a weak pass rush the past few seasons, he’ll improve Jacksonville’s defense right away fantasy-wise.
     

  4. Chris Claiborne (LB, signed by Min from Det)

    The Skinny: The former Lion linebacker signed a two-year deal with the Vikings and will take over on the outside.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Fantasy baseball owners can compare this signing with the Phillies’ signing of former Brave P Kevin Millwood, who basically fell into their lap. The Vikings weren’t even in the picture to sign Claiborne, but he suddenly signed within 48 hours of the first serious talks with his new team. His knock on him this past year was that he played about 15-20 pounds heavier than his ideal playing weight of around 250. If Claiborne can lose about 15 pounds, he should have an immediate impact and help their fantasy defense in a big way. As a tackler, he’s always been above average, and he should continue that trend with his new team, although Greg Biekert will probably get more tackles playing in the middle. The Vikings have the makings of a really improved fantasy defense.
     

  5. Vonnie Holliday (DE, signed by KC from GB)

    The Skinny: The former Packer starting defensive end signed a five-year deal and will handle the same role for the Chiefs, taking over for Duane Clemons, who was released.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Holliday has been a productive player in the past, but injuries have prevented him from becoming an elite end. The Chiefs, with one of the worst pass rushes in the league last year, rolled the dice and paid him big money, so they will be counting on him for major production. If Holliday can stay healthy, he’ll put up above-average tackle and sack numbers, but his biggest impact will come on the team defensive side. If he can be the solid pass rusher the Chiefs so desperately need, that will help their much-maligned secondary, which is one of the key reasons the Chiefs coveted an impact DE this off-season.
     
  6. Kevin Hardy (LB, signed by Cin from Dal)

    The Skinny: The former Jaguar and Cowboy linebacker signed a four-year deal and is expected to start inside for veteran LB Brian Simmons, who would move to the outside.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Hardy has been a decent tackler in the past, but because he’ll play inside, he should have the best year of his career as far as tackles are concerned. He’ll also record a few sacks, so Hardy figures to be a worthy starter for fantasy owners, and he’ll also make an immediate positive impact on Marvin Lewis’ revamped defense.
     

  7. Shawn Barber (LB, signed by KC from Phi)

    The Skinny: The former Redskin and Eagle outside linebacker is expected to start outside for the Chiefs, taking the place of veteran LB Mike Maslowski. The team is expected to move Maslowski inside to start for veteran LB Marvcus Patton.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Barber proved last season that he was fully recovered from an ACL injury and had a good season with the Eagles. The Chief outside linebackers have a history of putting up good tackle numbers, and we see no reason Barber won’t be solid for the Chiefs.
     

  8. Nate Wayne (LB, signed by Phi from GB)

    The Skinny: The former Bronco and Packer outside linebacker signed a four-year deal with the Eagles. He’ll start outside for the Eagles, replacing LB Shawn Barber, who signed with the Chiefs.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Two years ago, Wayne was looking like one of the better outside linebackers in the league. Last year, though, he was clearly worn down by knee problems and didn’t have a good year. In fact, after he signed with the Eagles, some of his former coaches said some unpleasant things about his play last year. If Wayne’s knee problems are behind him, he could return to his high level of play of two years ago. If they aren’t, he’ll be just a mediocre player. One other note to point out is that the Eagle outside linebackers have been only average tacklers in the past, so Wayne might not be that good from a fantasy standpoint with his new team. He will, however, he’ll help their fantasy defense if he’s healthy.
     

  9. Earl Holmes (LB, signed by Det from Cle)

    The Skinny: The former Steeler and Brown linebacker signed a three-year deal with the Lions.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Holmes is expected to be the new starting middle linebacker, talking over for Chris Claiborne, who signed with the Vikings. Holmes has always been a proficient tackler, but last year his knees started giving him problems, so that’s a concern. If healthy, he’ll be a very solid tackler, and since he’s playing on a bad team and should be on the field a long time, he should put up good tackle numbers.
     

  10. Mike Peterson (LB, signed by Jac from Ind)

    The Skinny:
    The former Colt outside linebacker signed a six-year deal with the Jaguars and will take over outside for T.J. Slaughter, who is expected to move inside for Wali Rainer, who signed with the Lions.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Peterson has always been a good tackle guy, and he should be with the Jaguars, provided his knees, issues for him the past two seasons, hold up. As one of the better LBs in the league for tackles, he should help their fantasy defense on a weekly basis.
     
  11. Rodney Harrison (S, signed by NE from SD)

    The Skinny: The former Charger safety signed a six-year deal with the Patriots. He’ll take over for S Tebucky Jones, who is on the verge of being traded to the Saints.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Harrison was leaning toward signing with the Raiders when the Patriots swooped in and scooped him up. Harrison, although getting up in age and injury prone, can still make big plays and will be a solid #2 fantasy defensive back in any scoring system, thanks to his tackling. The negative is that he will have to share the defensive area with veteran S Lawyer Milloy, who is also a playmaker in the secondary.
     

  12. Denard Walker (CB, signed by Min from Den)

    The Skinny: The former Titan and Bronco cornerback signed a four-year contract with the Vikings.

    The Fantasy Analysis: For the first time in a long while, the Vikings finally have a shutdown cornerback. From a fantasy perspective, Walker’s impact will be on the team’s defensive ends. Teams rarely challenge the talented Walker, so with him on the field opposing QBs will likely be forced to hold on to the ball a little longer. If the team can get a better pass rush up front, they’ll have the makings of a decent fantasy defense. We certainly haven’t described the Viking defense as "decent" in a long time.
     

  13. Dwayne Rudd (LB, signed by TB from Cle)

    The Skinny: The former Viking and Brown outside linebacker signed a two-year contract with the Buccaneers. He’ll take over for former starting outside linebacker Al Singleton, who signed with the Cowboys.

    The Fantasy Analysis: As if the Buccaneers needed another good linebacker! Although Rudd is a bit inconsistent for our liking, he’ll still be a solid tackler for fantasy owners and a decent #2 fantasy linebacker in most scoring systems. By adding yet another playmaker on defense, Tampa’s fantasy value as a team remains through the roof.
     

  14. Orlando Ruff (LB, signed by NO from SD)

    The Skinny: The former Charger inside linebacker signed a three-year deal with the Saints, where he will take over for veteran LB Charlie Clemons, who signed with Houston.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Since the Saint middle linebackers have a solid history of recording good tackle numbers, Ruff is a sleeper in the making. Though he isn’t the most talented player, he’s a decent tackler – one you can select late in your draft – and he could pay off nicely.
     

  15. Ashley Ambrose (CB, signed by NO from Atl)

    The Skinny: The former Falcon cornerback signed for the second time with the Saints, this time for four seasons.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Ambrose won’t make much of an impact from the fantasy player standpoint, but he will give their defense a shutdown-type corner, something they have really lacked since he left four years ago to play for the Falcons. That fact alone will make the Saint defense a better unit from a fantasy perspective.
     

  16. Dexter Jackson (S, signed by Ari from TB)

    The Skinny: The Super Bowl MVP signed a five-year deal with the Cardinals.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Jackson’s not as good as some would seem to believe, but he’ll still put up decent tackle numbers and record a few interceptions. His biggest impact will come from a defensive team perspective, replacing veteran S Kwamie Lassiter, who won’t be re-signed.
     

  17. John Thornton (DT, signed by Cin from Ten)

    The Skinny: The former Titan defensive lineman signed a six-year contract with the Bengals.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Although Thornton can play inside or outside, he’ll play at tackle with his new team. They’ll probably play him at end on passing downs. Even though he’s not likely to put up good fantasy numbers, he’ll help the Bengals’ team defense because he’s solid against the run and also a decent pass rusher.
     
  18. Corey Hall (S, signed by Atl from Cin)

    The Skinny: The former Bengal safety signed a five-year deal with the Falcons.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Hall has been penciled in as a starter and is a better than average tackler who will record a few interceptions. Although he’s not a great playmaker, he’ll help their secondary, which has been inconsistent over the past few seasons.
     

  19. Chike Okeafor (DE, signed by Sea from SF)

    The Skinny: The former 49er defensive end signed a two-year deal with the Seahawks.

    The Fantasy Analysis: Although he’s been mostly a part-time player in the past, Okeafor, should garner a lot more playing time with the pass rush starved Seahawks. If used correctly, Okeafor could approach double-digit sacks this season, so he’s someone to keep an eye on.
     

  20. Mark Simoneau (LB, signed by Phi from Atl)

    The Skinny: The Former Falcon linebacker was actually traded to the Eagles for a sixth-round pick this year and a fourth in 2004.

    The Fantasy Analysis: His problem hasn’t been talent, but rather being able to play through nagging injuries. Simoneau has been penciled in as the starting middle linebacker, and he has good enough ability to be a solid late round sleeper for tackles.
     

  21. Keith Newman (LB, signed by Atl from Buf)

    The Skinny: The former Bill linebacker signed a three-year deal with the Falcons.

    The Fantasy Analysis: This is actually a good situation for Newman because he’ll get to play outside in the Falcon 3-4 defensive scheme, which will give him a solid chance to rush the passer, something he can definitely do. We see him as a possible solid sleeper late in your draft, as long as he wins the starting job.
     

  22. Barry Gardner (LB, signed by Cle from Phi)

The Skinny: The former Eagle linebacker signed a two-year deal with the Browns. The second-year can actually be voided, making him a free agent.

The Fantasy Analysis: The starting middle linebacker job is currently Gardner’s to lose, but he’ll have to compete for it (possibly against a rookie) before it’s all said and done. The Brown middle linebackers have put up decent numbers the past few years, so if Gardner can win the job, he could turn out to be a solid #3 linebacker as far as tackles are concerned. However, he’s a bit slow and won’t make many big plays.

Honorable Mention:

  • Charlie Clemons (LB, signed by Hou from NO) – The former Ram and Saint linebacker will vie for a starting job outside in the Texan 3-4 scheme. Clemons is a good pass rusher, so he could actually be a nice late round sleeper who could put up near double-digit sacks, provided he starts.
  • James Darling (LB, signed by Ari from NYJ) – The former Eagle and Jet linebacker should start outside, taking over for veteran LB Rob Fredrickson, who is unsigned and not expected to return. This is actually a good situation for Darling, and we see him putting up decent tackle numbers. Playing on bad teams usually helps tackle numbers.
  • Wali Rainer (LB, signed by Det from Jac) – The former Brown and Jaguar linebacker will compete for a starting job but may wind up backing up Earl Holmes. If he is given a chance to start outside, he could actually be decent in that role. Time will tell.
  • Ike Reese (S, signed by Buf from Den) – The former Cowboy and Bronco safety will compete against veteran S Pierson Prioleau for a starting job. Prioleau put up big tackle numbers for a while last season, so whoever wins the job may be worth a serious look.
  • Montae Reagor (DT, signed by Ind from Den) – The Colts paid big money for Reagor, who was a backup with the Broncos. Maybe they know something we don’t here. The bottom line is that he will start for the Colts, has a high motor, and has a decent upside. We’ll see how he progresses in training camp.
  • Dre Bly (CB, signed by Det from Stl) – The Lions struck quickly at the start of free agency and probably overpaid for the former Ram cornerback. Bly will give up a lot of big plays because of his diminutive size, but he’ll record above-average tackle numbers for a cornerback because teams will pick on him, and he’ll record a decent number of interceptions. However, he’s average at best in coverage, so from a team defensive standpoint, he likely won’t help that much.

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