Fantasy Football Articles:

Free Agency Review (Part I)
by John Hansen
Publisher, The Guru Report
March 14, 2002

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The off-season has been one of most active ones in recent memory. A free agent class that appeared to be nondescript three months ago has been bolstered by the releases of players such as Stephen Davis, David Boston and Kordell Stewart and the trades involving Trung Canidate and Terry Glenn.

There have been a ton of important free agent signings on the defensive side of the ball, some at place kicker, and at other non-skill positions. In 2-3 weeks, when the bulk of the free agent activity is in our rear view mirror, we’ll be back with a comprehensive overview of the fantasy implications of all the movement and re-signings. But for now, with most of the big names having found their new homes, I can offer my take on the top-10 moves of the off-season thus far.

And here they are…

1. Stephen Davis (RB, signed by Car from Was)

   The Skinny: Davis, who keeps his off-season home 90 minutes from Panther headquarters and is a native of South Carolina, signed a five-year, $15.5 million deal Wednesday that will pay him more than $4 million in the first year of the contract. Davis’ contract could be worth as much as $36 million over five years if he reaches certain incentives. Davis was fortunate to sign such a (potentially) lucrative contract because there wasn’t a great demand for a starting back in free agency this year. In fact, only the Panthers and Texans showed serious interest in Davis, and he wisely chose Carolina, which is a better situation for many reasons.

   The Fantasy Analysis: Even if all 32 teams were looking for a starting back, Davis would have been hard pressed to find a situation significantly better than Carolina. The up-and-coming Panthers under John Fox were 11^th in the league in rushing attempts last year, and they probably would have ranked in the top-five if they had an upper-echelon back like Davis. Last year’s starter, Lamar Smith, started 11 games for the Panthers in 2002 and led the team with 737 yards rushing and seven touchdowns on 209 carries. Davis is bigger, stronger, more physical, and younger than Smith, so he should have no problem improving upon Smith’s (sometimes impressive) 2002 production. Davis has always played with a mini chip on his shoulder. He was drafted in only the 4^th round and toiled behind Terry Allen in Washington for a few years before taking over the starting job. Since then, he’s always been motivated to prove he’s one of the league’s elite backs. In Carolina, where the offense focuses first on the running game, Davis will clearly be a workhorse back, so he should be able to prove plenty. And since his contract has big money available in incentives, he’ll be even more motivated and focused on statistical production. If the team’s up-and-coming defense continues to improve and if Jake Delhomme or Rodney Peete can improve the passing game, Davis’ supporting cast, including a decent offensive line, should be good. Davis, I should mention, will definitely help the passing game and take pressure off whoever is starting at QB. At 29, the biggest concern with Davis is durability. But Davis has been a featured back for only four years, so he should have some mileage left, so wear and tear isn’t a serious concern. And after starting 14, 15, 16, and 12 games the last four years, he’s definitely shown that he can stay on the field and/or play hurt. In this RB-friendly system, with their propensity to run often and, most important, run often near the goal, Davis should hit double-digit TDs and he’ll rush for 1300+ yards if he stays healthy, so he could easily produce numbers worthy of a #1 fantasy back. Ideally, he should be drafted as your #2 back in a 10-team league. In a 12-team league, you could probably get by with him as your #1 back, assuming your #2 guy is productive and you’ve drafted a premiere WR with your first pick.

   As an aside, Davis joining the Panthers is a clear sign that RB DeShaun Foster will not be counted on in Carolina, at least for this coming season. Foster’s long-term value coming off his serious knee injury is still up in the air, but it’s obviously taken a serious hit with this signing, even if he miraculously returns to previous form in 1-2 years.
    

2. David Boston (WR, signed by SD from Ari)

   The Skinny: When the Chargers released #1 WR Curtis Conway and left themselves with only second year wideout Reche Caldwell as their top receiver, it became obvious they were targeting Boston, who himself targeted San Diego as his first choice in free agency. The Chargers, aware of the baggage that Boston brings with him, conducted their background checks on Boston, the player, and Boston, the individual, and came away satisfied that they were making a good investment in the premiere wideout. Boston, if all goes well, could make $47 million over the seven years of his contract. Upon signing, Boston reassured the team and the fans that they should "have no anxiety" about him, and he promised Charger fans that he "will give his all, a 100 percent effort on every play he makes." Asked if he knows how tough Marty Schottenheimer’s training camps and practices are, Boston deflected the question by saying he only knows that the coach wins, and winning is something that Boston claims is very important to him after playing in Arizona the last four years.

   The Fantasy Analysis: Fantasy owners should be concerned about drafting Boston, but not because of Schottenheimer’s reputation as a conservative coach or about the presence of the incredibly active LaDainian Tomlinson. Boston was signed to be this passing offense’s undeniable go-to guy and he has the tools to dominate wherever he is (look at what he did in Arizona in 2001). If he’s healthy and focused, he will dominate; he is probably the league’s 4^th most unstoppable receiver (behind Owens, Harrison, and Moss). That fact cannot be understated. Fantasy owners should be concerned with his off-the-field issues, though. It was believed that he would be suspended at least one game (not the case, according to Schottenheimer), and there were whispers from Cardinal insiders last year that he might have been fooling around with certain substances that he shouldn’t have been. The health of his knee is also something that needs to be monitored from now until fantasy drafts start heating up this summer. But again, if he’s healthy (he easily passed the team’s physical and reportedly ran a 4.4 40-yard dash) and keeps the off-the-field baggage to a minimum, he’ll easily produce like a #1 WR, as Conway, who was much older and much less physically gifted than Boston, did last year. The presence of Tomlinson, who will benefit greatly from Boston’s ability to challenge a defense downfield, and FB Lorenzo Neal will definitely help him, since he’ll see less double coverage. And Drew Brees is an accurate QB who can get him the ball downfield. As for Schottenheimer, he’ll make good use of Boston, even if he doesn’t have to out of necessity. The Charger secondary will feature two solid corners, but pass defense is still the unit’s biggest weakness, so he may just have to throw often by necessity, as he did at times last year. One other thing to consider: Boston is still young and is still learning; he could get better. My gut tells me he’ll be a model citizen in San Diego, but I cannot recommend drafting him in the 2^nd round as your #1 WR. I can, however, recommend doing that as early as the 3^rd, after you’ve selected two "sure thing" backs. In March it’s hard to gauge his value, but we’ll know soon once we see a couple hundred mock and real drafts unfold (I’ve already seen him go in the 5^th round of one draft, which is unbelievable value). But right now, I’d take him as my #1 WR if I had already secured two stud backs…in a heartbeat. His potential is too good to pass on.
    

3. Peerless Price (WR, traded from Buf to Atl)

   The Skinny: It was no surprise that the Falcons acquired Price last week. Price lives in Atlanta, wanted to play for the Falcons, and the team was clearly prepared to do what it took to get him. That was giving up their 1^st round pick this year and also signing Price to a seven-year contract that is believed to be worth between $35 million and $40 million, with a $10 million signing bonus. Price immediately becomes Atlanta’s #1 WR and will give the team even more speed on offense, and a viable deep threat who will (in addition to giving him a reliable target) open up running lanes for QB Michael Vick. Price will also allow #2 WR Brian Finneran to work the intermediate area, which he excels at, and will also help opening up room for RBs Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett.

   The Fantasy Analysis: Price is a fine player and an excellent addition to the Falcons, but he’s bound to disappoint those expecting him to produce like he did last year. Price had some big outings against some inferior opponents last year and clearly benefited from the attention Eric Moulds commanded on the other side. One week for example, against Minnesota, Moulds suggested the team use him as a decoy and focus on getting the ball to Price, who proceeded to catch 13 passes for 182 yards and 2 TDs. But once defenses adjusted to the Bill passing game, Price averaged only 59 yards a game and scored only 2 TDs total – mediocre numbers – the final seven games of the season. Price isn’t very big or physical, so he will have some trouble lining up against an opposing defense’s top corner, many of whom will be bigger and more physical. And although he was able to quickly develop chemistry with QB Drew Bledsoe, he might not with Vick, who is still learning his position and will likely still leave big plays on the field due to inexperience. Price will make some big plays, have a few big games, and will wind up with solid numbers. But for reasons explained above, and the fact that 6-7 other players will be touching the ball and in a position to score and rack up rushing and receiving yards, I don’t think he’ll be as consistent as people will expect him to be. I’d go with him as my #2 WR if the value was good, but I doubt it will be, so I expect to be passing on Price this year.
    

4. Jake Plummer (QB, signed by Den from Ari)

   The Skinny: The Broncos made it clear after studying Plummer on film that he was their guy and they put their money where their mouth was by signing him (and overpaying him) to a seven-year contract worth what is believed to be $40 million. Plummer probably won’t play the contract out, but he’s pretty much locked into Denver for the next 2-3 years. Since Denver obviously wanted a change at the position, it’s hard to argue with this choice, since the free agent pickings were slim, but that doesn’t mean it was a very good one.

   The Fantasy Analysis: Plummer’s struggles have been well documented. He’s not an accurate passer, nor does he have a strong arm, and he tends to make poor decisions and turn the ball over, a big no-no for a Mike Shanahan-coached QB. Plummer is much more mobile and can throw on the run much better than last year’s starter, Brian Griese, and he grades out well intangible-wise, surely a better leader and late-game rally guy than Griese ever was. Shanahan believes that he can take Plummer’s athletic ability and intangibles, and with his QB guru-ish-ness, transform him into a top NFL QB. He might be right – there’s no question that the system, coaches, and supporting cast in Denver are the best Plummer’s ever had – but there are too many factors that indicate he won’t be right, at least this year. For one, this is a new system for Plummer, and it’s probably the thickest playbook in the league, so I expect the offense to be conservative early. The fans in Arizona turned on Plummer, who was a college hero in the state, after a couple of bad seasons. The fans in Denver, a very tough place to play QB, may turn on Plummer after a few bad games. And one factor that everyone seems to be forgetting is that Plummer is at his best when chaotically running around making plays while behind. But in Denver, the offense is very precise and structured, so that could be a problem initially. Denver clearly covets Plummer’s ability to avoid the rush, and there’s no question he’s great at doing that, so if Shanahan can get him to cut down on his interceptions and play effectively within this system, this should be a decent marriage. But with 15, and maybe even 20 safer choices at the QB position this year, there really is no reason to hitch your wagon to Plummer in 2003. Late, as your backup, fine. Taking Plummer fairly early, due to his upside, as your starter, is just unnecessary.

   Note: If the Jets do not match the offer made by the Redskins to WR Laveranues Coles, looking more and more likely by the day, his acquisition will rank as the 5^th most important thus far. If we included the trade of RB Trung Canidate, covered in our last off-season report, that move would rank as the 6^th most important one thus far.
    

5. Kordell Stewart (QB, signed by Chi from Pit)

   The Skinny: After rejecting a four-year contract offer by the Cardinals worth more than $12 million, Stewart, who was set to make $6.3 million with the Steelers this year, accepted a two-year $5 million contract Thursday with the Bears. He’ll immediately steps in as the undisputed starter and by signing the shorter contract hopes to reap a larger contract either in 2005 or before.

   The Fantasy Analysis: While it appears that Chicago wasn’t Stewart’s first choice and Stewart wasn’t Chicago’s first choice, this is still a pretty good fit. Chicago has long needed a mobile QB who can actually stay healthy. Stewart is definitely that, and the conservative nature of the Bear offense should suit him well. Stewart will also not have to look over his shoulder, although there will be pressure on him coming to Chicago as the clear starter. Chicago isn’t used to having a QB who can make plays with his legs, but they will certainly take full advantage of his running ability. And on this team, with a lack of a premiere RB, Stewart could be a serious force on the ground. But in the end, his lack of consistency in the passing game will once again make him a shaky fantasy prospect. He’ll likely lean heavily on WR Marty Booker (as he did with Hines Ward, a similar player), but that probably won’t be enough to make him a viable fantasy starter. And with such wealth at the position, Stewart is nothing better than (an only) serviceable backup QB, especially in his first year on his new team.
    

6. Jeff Blake (QB, signed by Ari from Bal)

   The Skinny: After getting put on hold by then free agent QB Kordell Stewart, the Cardinals this week quickly turned their attention to the 11-year veteran Blake and surprisingly got a deal done. Blake signed a three-year deal worth $7.5 million, including a $1.5 million signing bonus and salaries of $2 million in each year to be the team’s new starting QB. The Cardinals still have plans for youngster Josh McCown, and they could also draft a QB in April, but Blake will be their starter this year.

   The Fantasy Analysis: Again I go back to the multitude of viable options at the QB position this year. Because of it, there’s no reason for a fantasy owner to consider Blake unless the league is 14+ teams or as a fantasy team’s #3 QB. The fact is, in addition to the obvious reasons for not liking his chances this year (it’s the Cardinals, Boston’s gone, etc), Blake wasn’t very good last year. Although he finished strong and put up good numbers the tail end of the season, he had big problems with turnovers and didn’t exactly distinguish himself, as evidenced by the fact that the Cardinals signed him for 3X the money the Ravens offered him. Baltimore now might have to rely on the unimpressive Chris Redman, who is coming off back surgery. Sure, Blake will have some big games but good luck trying to figure out when they will occur with this horrible supporting cast. He’s at best in the 20-25 range at the position this year.
    

7. Jake Delhomme (QB, signed by Car from NO)

   The Skinny: Last week the Panthers signed Delhomme to a two-year contract that is reportedly worth $4 million and included a signing bonus of more than $1 million. The Panthers also re-signed 14-year veteran Rodney Peete, and according to head coach John Fox, Peete will enter the season as the starter. The Panthers may be able to compete for a playoff spot this year, so starting Peete early in the season makes sense, but there’s no question that Delhomme has much more future potential and will push Peete in 2003. Delhomme wouldn’t have left his native Louisiana unless he had a chance to start, so I expect him to see the field plenty this year.

   The Fantasy Analysis: Delhomme doesn’t have a great arm, but he has the qualities of an effective NFL starter. He’s accurate, mobile, smart, and has good leadership qualities. When he’s played, he’s looked pretty good, like late last year when he was asked to enter a game cold off the bench on a crucial 3^rd down and threw a bullet right between the numbers to WR Joe Horn on a slant pattern to move the chains. His sampling has been small, but it’s been positive, and he’s made significant progress and has soaked up a lot over the last 3-4 years on the bench. He’s someone to consider now in deep leagues and in deep dynasty and keeper leagues. For all others, he’s probably someone you’ll just want to keep an eye on and snap up for depth if it looks like he’ll be moving into the starting lineup, which I think he will be by October’s end. I do doubt he’ll be a viable weekly starter in a 10 or 12-team this year.
    

8. Ike Hilliard (WR, NYG, re-signed)

   The Skinny: The Giants were compelled to re-sign Hilliard after Hilliard, who appeared to be disgruntled and as good as gone last year, warmed up to the prospect of returning to the team. New York re-signed Hilliard to a five-year, $12.5 contract. He will, of course, remain a starter and will serve as the #2 WR alongside Amani Toomer.

   The Fantasy Analysis:
   There was a time when Hilliard was the favorite target of QB Kerry Collins. Hilliard will have to share the ball with Toomer and TE Jeremy Shockey, and there will be only so much production to go around, but he could still surprise with good TD numbers in this potentially potent offense. Hilliard bulked up last year before getting hurt and was looking good. This year, with Toomer and Shockey commanding so much attention, Hilliard should be freed up to make more plays than ever. Perhaps most important, though, Hilliard’s presence is fantastic news for Collins, who will have an impressive arsenal of weapons to throw to – perhaps the second or third best overall group (WR, TE, and RB) in the league. But again, with Hilliard likely the 3^rd option in this passing game, he’s only a #4 WR in a 10 or 12-team league.
    

9. Terry Glenn (WR, traded from GB to Dal)

   The Skinny: The Packers traded Glenn to the Cowboys for a 6^th round draft pick. Contrary to popular believe, Head Coach Bill Parcells is a big Glenn fan. In fact, when the Packers were looking to trade for Glenn last year they called Parcells for insight on Glenn and the coach gave him a good recommendation. Going into this season we at least know that Parcells knows what he can expect from Glenn and visa versa.

   The Fantasy Analysis: Glenn played hard last year in Green Bay – he just wasn’t a good fit for that offense and never established himself as a deep threat, a role he needs to have to be effective. Too many times Glenn took a big hit while working in the short passing game last year, and many of those times he struggled to recover from the hit. His toughness is still questionable, but he’ll definitely be utilized downfield by Parcells, which should take away from WR Joey Galloway’s production. It’s unclear right now if he’ll start, but I expect him to be used more as the 3^rd receiver with Galloway and Antonio Bryant. I don’t think he’ll start over Bryant, because the second year receiver’s size will be needed, and I don’t think he’ll start over (the more consistent) Galloway, so when the dust settles I expect Glenn to be just the #3 WR. He’ll help the team for sure, but his fantasy value will be negligible, especially with the team’s shaky situation at QB, since he won’t be a consistent performer.
    

10. Derrius Thompson (WR, signed by Mia from Was)

         The Skinny: After signing a three-year $3.6 million contract, the former Redskin
         receiver will be reunited with Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner, who coached
         Thompson for two years in Washington. Thompson, 25, will compete with WR
         James McKnight for the starting job opposite Chris Chambers and will likely win it
         because he’s very similar to last year’s starter, Oronde Gadsden, who is an
         unrestricted free agent and is unlikely to return in 2003. McKnight’s speed, then,
         would be utilized in the team’s 3-WR sets.

The Fantasy Analysis: After hanging on to a roster spot for three years in Washington, Thompson managed 53 catches, for 773 yards, and 4 TDs for the Redskins last year, despite the fact that he was used in an ever-changing WR rotation. Like Gadsden, Thompson is a physical receiver with good size. But Thompson is much younger and more explosive than Gadsden, so his upside is greater. He’s no sure thing just yet, and with Chambers the go-to guy and McKnight and TE Randy McMichael also very active, Thompson’s numbers won’t be anything special. But he’s a worthwhile pick late in your draft, and he will definitely make the Dolphin passing game more dynamic and will help QB Jay Fiedler’s production. Miami wants to add more WR depth (Cris Carter won’t be back) so they could draft a receiver early or acquire another veteran, so it remains to be seen if Thompson’s potential 2003 value will remain what it is now.