What You Get
Top 10 Reasons
Testimonials
Why Use Us?
Experience
One of the oldest and most respected fantasy sports services on the Internet, we've delivered the most innovative strategies, perspectives, predictions, player projections, and cool web-based tools on the market since 1995.
Results
No company has dominated the industry's "Expert Leagues" and polls than us, with 16 league titles total. Our subscriber won WCOFF in 2006, came in 2nd in 2007, as well as RotoBowl and 2nd place overall in the NFFC. These four readers alone won $270,000 in '06-'07.
Credentials
We were the first fantasy football web site to provide content for ESPN.com back in 1996, and we've been regularly seen and heard on NFL Network, Sirius NFL Radio, Comcast Sportsnet, and many more media outlets since then. The most "connected" fantasy sports service around, we interact with NFL players, coaches, analysts, agents, and insiders to give our subscribers the inside scoop.
Check out our content from Jan-July for free by joining our free mailing list. It's FREE!

2009 Sample Article

Check out our Subscriber-Only Football Homepage here.
 
2009 Breakout Receivers
Published, 6/26/09

NFL football is a young man’s game, but while every once in a while a player like wideout Eddie Royal puts up jaw-dropping numbers in his first campaign, the fact remains that for most receivers, youth isn’t necessarily a good thing. With youth, of course, comes inexperience, and the learning curve for receivers in this league is usually quite steep.

However, a combination of youth an experience can be a very good thing, as we saw yet again in 2008 when 7 of the top-20 fantasy wideouts last year – as well as the Super Bowl’s MVP – were players in either their second or third seasons. So while the “Third-Year WR” theory has proven to be somewhat of a fallacy, its main thesis remains accurate: Experience can only be a good thing in the National Football League, especially for receiver. And if you’re still running with extremely fresh legs, that’s even better.

So once again we begin our journey looking for breakout receivers by taking a look at all the league’s receivers entering their second or third seasons.

Let’s start with the beloved third-year receivers…

Wide Receivers

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

Calvin Johnson (Det, 2nd overall pick) - To understand just how freakishly good Johnson is, notice that he put up a 78/1331/12 line on the worst team in football history, with a career backup and a veteran coaxed out of retirement midseason throwing him the football. There is nothing left, then, for Johnson to bust out of, and anything less than what he accomplished last year would, frankly, be a disappointment at this point. The Lions are hoping Johnson and top pick QB Matthew Stafford now can become one of the most prolific duos in the league. We still don't know if the Lions will start the year with Stafford or the veteran Daunte Culpepper. But the team’s QB situation should be better no matter who starts, and whoever is under center will have the 6'5" monster in Johnson to throw to, and Calvin should be even better equipped to take advantage of his freakish tools with another full season in the league. Johnson has fantastic speed for a big man and last season showed no problems associated with the back injury that hampered him as a rookie. His hands and route running, two small questions Johnson left unanswered as a rookie, were answered with last year's great season. The only question is whether or not Johnson's numbers will suffer as the transition to Stafford begins. But Johnson has already said he's excited about the Lions' potential in 2009. Our guess is he won't suffer at all. An NFL purest would cringe at the following line, but when in doubt, just throw it up to Johnson, preferably down the field, and let him get it. More often than not, he should.

Dwayne Bowe (KC, 23rd overall pick) - There are some very good signs for Bowe going forward. First of all, he improved on a great rookie campaign with an impressive 2008, throwing up big numbers, with 86/1022/7, all this despite playing on a shaky offense and with his third QB in two seasons (Tyler Thigpen). It's good that Bowe has shown the ability to adjust and develop with a new QB because he's going to have to do it again with Matt Cassel coming into town. Bowe immediately becomes a top WR threat and a legitimate fantasy #1 prospect because he's easily Cassel's best target in new coach Todd Haley's spread offense. We've heard 100 catches being thrown around as a possible total for Bowe, and we don't see why that isn't realistic, especially with TE Tony Gonzalez moved on to Atlanta. Perhaps most important to fantasy owners, the absence of Gonzalez leaves a big void to be filled around the goal line, which means Bowe could see more chances in scoring situations, and he was already tied for first in 2008 with 10 pass targets inside the 10. He may not be a great speed guy who can make plays down the field, and he may not be truly special (although he looked scary-good in training camp in 2008), but he’s been pretty been impressive in each of his first two seasons and improved across the board last year, showing he was able to handle the pressure of commanding 156 targets (3rd most in the league at WR). It is, however, disconcerting how he reportedly showed up to the team’s OTAs this spring 20-25 pounds overweight. It’s a red flag, but Bowe’s reportedly done what he can to get back to his normal playing weight, and he is a big, physical receiver, so a few extra points shouldn’t be a huge problem. It’s also worth noting that he’s had problems with drops in the OTAs, as he appears to be looking for the big plays rather than making routine catches. That’s also a concern, so Bowe needs to turn things around quickly and have a good camp. Overall, we like the player, and we sure like the system Bowe is in. Two years of seasoning should help him considerably as he attempts to shoulder even more of the receiving load in KC – assume he doesn’t regress, as he appeared to be doing in the OTAs.

Anthony Gonzalez (Ind, 32nd overall pick) – Gonzalez has already been a consistent weapon for the Colts, and he’s clearly already developed excellent chemistry with Peyton Manning, which means he’ll always have value as a player for the Colts and for fantasy. Gonzalez hasn't yet had that monster season we've come to expect from talented Indy WRs, but you could argue he simply hasn’t had the opportunity to, since he’s been only the #3 most of his two years in Indy. Back in 2007, from Weeks Twelve through Sixteen, when he was subbing for an injured Marvin Harrison, he was the 12th-best fantasy wideout in the land, so he’s already shown his potential in this offense when in a prominent role. Harrison’s gone, so the time for Gonzalez to take that next step into the upper tier is upon us. Gonzalez is a cerebral player, and that's going to go a long way with Manning throwing the football because Manning needs to trust his receivers, and his confidence in Gonzalez should be high. In his first two seasons, Gonzalez has caught 94 of the 129 passes thrown his way, a 73% clip that is impressive for such a young receiver. He does lack ideal size, and he’s not a true burner, but Gonzalez moves well after the catch, so despite being a nice possession guy on inside or the outside he has the potential to make bigger plays because he's so fluid. His mojo with Manning should be even better in Year Three, so barring injury, a relatively sizable improvement on the somewhat disappointing 57/664/4 he put up as the Colts' #3 WR last year is almost a stone-cold guarantee.

Steve Breaston (Ari, 142nd overall pick) - Breaston's the perfect example of a guy ending up in the perfect place and the perfect system for his NFL career, and he responded with an out-of-nowhere 77/1003/3 breakout campaign last season. The year before, he caught only 8 more passes than Abe Vigoda. There's no way Breaston will have the chance to catch defenses by surprise anymore, but he can show that his ’08 season wasn't a fluke. Even if he does that, though, he probably won't have as much fantasy value as he did in 2008, since a 1000+-yard trio at WR usually requires planetary alignment for it to happen anyway, and the Cards probably won’t throw quite as much this year. At this point, it seems almost 100% certain that Anquan Boldin will be catching passes in the desert for at least another season, and the bottom line is that means Breaston is once again a #3 WR unless Boldin is traded or makes good on his threat to hold out for the entire season (unlikely). But while Breaston was a revelation last year, his being in his third season is still important because he clearly benefited from his unique situation. Now, with two years in, if he is asked to take on a large role, he should be better-equipped to handle it.

Legit Breakout Candidates:

Ted Ginn (Mia, 9th pick overall) - Reports this off-season have said that Ginn looks better than good. In fact, "dominant" has been thrown around when talking about Ginn, and Dolphin coach Tony Sparano has said that Ginn is more confident than ever in his abilities. GM Jeff Ireland has noted that he thinks Ginn is ready to break out, and the Dolphins want him to focus on the receiver position almost exclusively, as evidenced by their making him the #2 punt returner this off-season. Ginn was decent last year, with a line of 56/790/2, and he functioned relatively well as the Dolphins' main deep threat in a group of intermediate possession receivers (he caught the ball, on average, 10.5 yards downfield). In the second half of the season, Ginn ranked 21st in FPG among all WRs, which placed him as a solid starting WR in 12-team leagues over that span. We aren't ready to declare Ginn as a sure thing in your starting lineup, and as of right now, he's probably a #3 fantasy wideout at best if you're looking to draft him. But he's shown he can be better than that, and it wouldn't exactly be shocking, given his high-end speed and movement ability as well as his second-half production last season. The key for Ginn is to perform consistently at a high level and to command the football because he doesn't score enough to be an elite fantasy WR otherwise. In his third season, if he’s ever going to fulfill his potential in the NFL, we should see some clear signs now above and beyond what he showed last year. Most likely, he’ll never be a stud, but it’s realistic to project his upside as something similar to what Santonio Holmes has done the last couple of seasons in Pittsburgh.

Mike Walker (Jac, 79th pick overall) - 2008 was a quiet year for Walker, since he started only one of the nine games he played in and made just 16 catches, but things should be much different in 2009, really different. After missing his 2007 rookie season with a knee injury and missing games due to a knee infection and personal issues last year, Walker now finds himself near the top of the depth chart for the Jaguars. The Jags cut loose a laundry list of head cases, slow-pokes, and overall disappointments at the WR position this off-season and over the last two years, and they brought in a reliable and hard-working veteran in Torry Holt. Holt has a firm grasp on the #1 job here, of course, but someone is going to need to start alongside him, and Walker almost certainly has the upper hand at this point, and he's been taking first-team reps all off-season. Walker has good size and reliable hands and he runs great routes, which make him an ideal possession threat, plus he’s not exactly playing with a fridge on his back like some of the other recent Jag wideouts. Since he’s done very little in his two years, he’s probably one of the most legitimate third-year breakout threats in the NFL this season – but he has to show the team he can stay healthy and can be relied on. For what it’s worth, Jag RB Maurice Jones-Drew told us in May that he’s all over Walker as a major WR sleeper this year, and he wasn’t just blowing smoke. 

Have a chance:

Robert Meachem (NO, 27th pick overall) - At this point, it'd be hard to attribute Meachem's utter uselessness as a fantasy player to anything but his being a knucklehead (and a decent bit to nagging injuries). Think about it. Meachem's played (and we use "played" lightly) for two seasons in the NFL's most prolific passing offense after the Saints used a first-round pick on him. But Meachem didn't even catch a ball as a rookie and was a distant second to Devery "Brick Hands" Henderson as Drew Brees' preferred deep threat in 2008. Aside from the injuries, Meachem's problems 1A and 1B have been the playbook and route running. But there's no denying the explosive talent here. Although he made just 12 catches, Meachem averaged a huge 24.1 YPC and scored 3 TDs. This is the type of guy who can flip the switch in an instant, and if he does, look out. But as we've reiterated, there are reasons he can't find the field in even this offense. He simply hasn't shown any reason for the Saints to rely on him. One bad sign for him this off-season was the team re-signing the free agent Henderson, which is a clear indication they have little confidence in Meachem. He clearly has a ton to prove, and even at this early stage of his career, it’s fair to be pessimistic. However, the team is once again talking him up this spring, so maybe it’s a tad premature to write him off. Clearly, if you’re looking for an example of a player having the talent to take a major step in Year Three and being in a good situation, it’s hard to do better than Meachem.

Sidney Rice (Min, 44th pick overall) - Rice had a decent rookie season in 2007, and he seemed like a guy who was primed to take a bigger role on a team with less-than-stellar WRs. But Rice's production was alarmingly trimmed due almost entirely to injury, and he fell from 31 catches to 15, despite playing in the same number of games (12). The good news is that Rice has recorded 8 TDs with just the 46 career catches, showing that he has at least one useful NFL skill, as a red zone threat. Rice battled all last season with a PCL sprain, but he's looked sharp in spring camps and he assured the media that he’s feeling 100% for the first time in a while. But still, the fact that he couldn't command more pass targets over the mediocre Bobby Wade for playing time is disconcerting, as is the drafting of Percy Harvin, a weapon who absolutely has to see the field. Rice doesn't have an outstanding skill set, but he has good size and is a good leaper in the red zone, plus he can sneak downfield at times. The WR rotation is still a little up in the air, but if he retains a starting spot on the outside, he could become a fringe fantasy WR (especially if Brett Favre comes back and is throwing the football to him). If he doesn't win a job, he'll be used sparingly in the red zone, just like last season. Rice doesn’t appear to be bursting with fantasy potential right now, but it’s worth noting that he looked like an ascending player with some upside just one year ago, and his added experience can only help.

David Clowney (NYJ, 157th pick overall) -  We're pretty confident we've devoted as much or more space on this former Packer than any other fantasy site, especially since there's only so much you can squeeze out of Clowney's one career catch in two seasons. But this coming season could be the perfect storm for Clowney’s career. The Jets have basically nothing at WR, and there's a wide-open starting spot opposite Jerricho Cotchery. In terms of experience, Chansi Stuckey seems to have the upper hand to grab it, but Clowney has performed well in preseason (8/222/2 last year), has wonderful separation speed, and his skill set probably fits better on the outside, since Stuckey is best utilized in the slot. Jet coaches seem to agree, as Clowney was working with the first team in early spring practices. If he improves his shaky hands to the point at which they’re not a liability, he could become a low-catch but big YPC guy, kind of like Bernard Berrian. The Jets would take that. Based on his experience in the league and his opportunity, he’s definitely someone to watch this summer.

Laurent Robinson (Stl, 75th pick overall) - This year, Robinson makes a move from Atlanta to St. Louis, where he can definitely help the team and his fantasy value. Robinson is a tall, fluid receiver who runs precise routes. He may not be a burner, but he’s got decent speed, and he’s shown an ability to get open and make plays down the field. The best news for his fantasy value is that the Rams have practically nothing at WR outside of Donnie Avery. After the trade, it was reported that the Rams would not assure Robinson of any sort of role, and that he'd have to compete for a job. But since then, he's elevated himself to working with the first team, and at this point, it seems like he's a good bet to start opposite Avery, although second- year man Keenan Burton is a threat to the starting job that is up for grabs and would be a better possession type for their offense. The biggest challenge for Robinson is clearly staying healthy because 2008 was a nightmare season for him health-wise.  That’s a big concern, but he’s at least been in the league now for a couple of seasons, so if he is healthy, he should be able to dramatically change his career trajectory, which was way down last year. Robinson did show some potential with a 37/437/1 rookie season in 2007. He's going to have to work on his hands, but he's in a really good situation for making a name for himself.

Steve Smith (NYG, 51st pick overall) - Smith seems like an obvious pick for a breakout season, given that the Giants are young and thin at WR and Smith is easily Eli Manning's most experienced target at the position. But Smith isn't exactly a glove-tight fit at one of the outside receiver slots, so his best numbers might well come from the slot, which is the exact same role he flourished in when veterans Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer were in town. Still, due to his experience in the offense, Giant OC Kevin Gilbride recently said he would be going with Smith and Domenik Hixon as his two starters if the season would start today. What’s troubling is that Smith’s best two games reception-wise in 2008 (9 in Week Five and 7 in Week Three) came when Burress was on the field. Of course, that's a small sample size, and Smith is in as good a position as any to take the next step toward fantasy relevance in his third year. But there are definitely questions, despite his promotion. Worst case scenario, he eventually moves into the slot once top pick Hakeem Nicks picks up the offense, but he could still put up better numbers.

Chansi Stuckey (NYJ, 235th pick overall) - Hopefully, by the time Week One rolls around, everyone will be able to tell the difference between Stuckey and David Clowney without having to throw their names into Google. Both guys will play, and Stuckey at least seems the safer pick to put up numbers, since he actually has worthwhile NFL experience. He has great hands (something Clowney lacks) and isn't afraid to go across the middle. Catching 32/45 targets means he could even haul in Brett Favre's unnecessarily speedy lasers, which bodes well for young Mark Sanchez, who throws a softer ball that's easier to haul in. Ideally, Stuckey is a slot receiver, and in that role he could have some real value in a PPR league. Remember, he's slippery and can get open in traffic, which means even though he lacks ideal size, he could be moved around and utilized near the goal line. He was actually an effective red zone target for Favre early last season.

Johnnie Lee Higgins (Oak, 99th pick overall) - Higgins was picked for (what else?) his speed, and to his credit, he's used that asset to his advantage and has carved himself a pretty nice niche with the Raiders as a flexible offensive option and dynamite kick returner. Out of necessity, Higgins became a starting receiver for the Raiders late last year and finished 2008 with a line of 22/366/4, with a really nice 16.6 YPC. But Higgins doesn't have good hands and doesn't run great routes, which means the Raiders were looking to upgrade the position at all costs this off-season (they did, by drafting Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy in April). Still, since Higgins and Chaz Schilens are more experienced, they would, according to reports, still start if the season began today. But it wouldn't be wise to expect that to be the case in late August, since the Raiders want to get their youngsters on the field as soon as possible. Higgins will still return kicks, he'll still be valuable in tricky formations, and he'll still play because he's a valuable deep and run-after-the-catch threat. A "breakout" season is probably unrealistic, but if Heyward-Bey and/or Murphy fails to make a move in training camp, Higgins could still be in line for a lot of playing time, and with two years in the league, he should be able to take a step forward.

Well, they are still third-year receivers

James Jones (GB, 78th pick overall) - Jones was really impressive as a rookie in 2007, making 47 catches for 676 yards, despite tailing off at the end of the year. Unfortunately, that little tailspin continued into 2008, when he couldn't beat out Jordy Nelson for the team's #3 WR spot, and he put up a line of just 20/274/1. Jones battled a knee injury all of last season, which caused him to miss a few games, and off-season surgery was even contemplated for the knee. But Jones opted to pass on it, and despite not receiving the surgery, he says he's 100% ready to go for training camp this year. When healthy, Jones takes advantage of his good size with great hands and a nice vertical-stretching ability. He's still the #4 receiver here, but Donald Driver is getting old, and this is an offense that will throw the ball a lot. He might not replicate his impressive rookie campaign, but he's probably a good bet to improve on his disappointing sophomore season if he gets the opportunity. But here again, that’s the problem. The team loves Nelson and views him as Driver’s replacement, so Jones will need some injuries if he’s to eclipse his solid 2007 rookie numbers.

Jason Hill (SF, 76th pick overall) – Hill had a solid summer last year and showed great improvement in Mike Martz’ offense, and he proceeded to make an impact during the season, putting up a 31/319/2 line last year. Hill did it in nine games, which is somewhat impressive, but brings us to his biggest problem: staying on the field. He’s had some injury issues, including a hamstring problem this off-season. Hill isn't very big, but he has good speed and can make some plays downfield. He is, however, a long shot to make an impact this year. For one, QB Shaun Hill doesn't have a great arm. More important, Hill is pretty much buried on a WR depth chart that includes Michael Crabtree, Isaac Bruce, Josh Morgan, Brandon Jones, and Arnaz Battle. Hill did well with the time he had last year and delivered when called upon, but he’ll have to battle for a roster spot. Despite sitting out spring practices with that hamstring injury, however, for what it’s worth, Hill might have an edge over Battle, who’s had his own injury problems.

Dwayne Jarrett (Car, 45th pick overall) - Coming out of college, Jarrett was considered a big possession receiver with the potential to be something of a playmaker for a bigger target. But he's never been able to adjust his game to the speed of the NFL because, among other things, he lacks fluidity. It's obvious that he hasn't been able to get by with just raw talent, as evidenced by his 16 catches with no scores over his first two NFL seasons. But despite the lack of improvement in the stat column, both Panther coach John Fox and QB Jake Delhomme have been talking Jarrett up this off-season. Fox said Jarrett made strides last year that didn't show up in the box score – he did make a couple of key catches – and Delhomme thinks Jarrett can become a big contributor to the Carolina offense. But there's no real, solid evidence yet that Jarrett is going to become anywhere near a viable fantasy option this season. But maybe, as is the case with receivers sometimes, he'll get it in the third year. If veteran Mushin Muhammad misses time with an injury, Jarrett should be better-equipped to handle a prominent role in Year Three.  

Jacoby Jones (Hou, 73rd pick overall) - Jones is one of those guys who’s hard to ignore because of his speed and his good size (6'2"). But while Jones has been a very good kick and punt returner so far in his young NFL career, the fact that he hasn't been able to find his way onto the field in one of the NFL's most explosive passing offenses does present a lot of questions. Jones has a line of 18/230/0 as a receiver in his career, and just 28 pass targets to go with it. But to his credit, Jones acknowledges he needs to work on some things, mentioning consistency, hands, and route running, specifically. He's going to have to actually practice to get better at those things, though, and he sat out a good deal of spring workouts with a tailbone injury. Jones has a lot of raw talent, and this is a really good offense, but he needs a lot of things to go in his favor if he’s to have a chance. The team still has veteran Andre Davis, who would start if Andre Johnson went down, and David Anderson could fill in if Kevin Walter is out. 

Roy Hall (Ind, 169th pick overall) - In the wake of losing WR Marvin Harrison, Colt QB Peyton Manning offered an open challenge to some of the young receivers on the Colt roster to step up and make a play for the #3 job. Hall is the third-year guy among that crew, which includes second-year man Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie. Despite the advantage in years, Hall doesn't have the experience of actually producing (one catch for eight yards in his career). Hall is the biggest of the three, with near-TE size (6'3", 240), but that also means he doesn't fit the typical Colt #3 profile. He's going to have to show something to separate himself. It should be pointed out that the team has been intrigued by him since he joined the team in 2007, so he’s at least someone to keep an eye on if there are injuries.  

Legedu Naanee (SD, 172nd pick overall) - Naanee has really good size (6'2", 225) and has actually seen time at TE and FB because he's physical and athletic. And his versatility is why he's almost a lock to make the San Diego roster this year, since head coach Norv Turner loves flexibility with his receivers. Not only that, but the Chargers are one of the latest teams to delve into the Wildcat, and Naanee has been taking snaps from the formation this spring. He has only 16 career catches and averages under 10 YPC, and he probably won't catch too many more than that this year. As a breakout candidate, he probably strikes out, but he's going to have a job because he does things that won't show up in the box score. At this point, he might actually be a better bet to make the roster than 2007 first-rounder Buster Davis.

Syndric Steptoe (Cle, 234th pick overall) - If awesome names were awarded fantasy points, Steptoe would be a 1st-rounder. Unfortunately for him, Steptoe is just another lightning-quick but incredibly small WR/KR in the Dante Hall mold. His biggest value to the Browns, outside of potentially returning kicks, was when he was used as a Joshua Cribbs-lite type of player. Steptoe put up a line of 19/182/0 in his first season of actual game action, but he contains little value now that the Browns are deeper at WR this season after drafting some prospects this past April. The door is still cracked open for him to make an impact, though, thanks to the suspension of Donte Stallworth.

Buster Davis (SD, 30th pick overall) - Wait, who? Yeah, you read correctly. Former LSU standout "Craig" Davis was actually a 1st -round pick of the Chargers just two seasons ago, and it takes a special kind of player to fall into anonymity just two years after being a #1 pick. A groin injury limited Davis to just four games and four catches in 2008, and at this point, he doesn't seem to factor into the Chargers' plans at the WR position at all. His issues are mainly health-related, and while he made 20 catches as a rookie in 2007, he battled an ankle injury that left him hobbled and virtually useless downfield (he averaged just 9.4 YPC). Reports from Charger OTAs are that Davis has showed up noticeably bigger in the hopes he can handle more of a pounding, but he's already in an uphill climb behind at least four other guys, including 2007 late-round pick Legedu Naanee. The Chargers tried to trade him this off-season – and nobody wanted him.  

Aundrae Allison (Min, 146th pick overall) - Allison has value as an experienced return man, but offensively he was unable to separate himself from the pack last season, despite showing flashes as a rookie in ’07 and playing on a team with pretty weak WRs. The unfortunate thing for Allison is that the drafting of Percy Harvin pushes him down both the WR and KR depth charts, making his chances of securing a roster spot less likely. He's battling for the final WR spot on the Viking roster, so even if Brett Favre comes back, Allison won't have much value.

Courtney Taylor (Sea, 197th pick overall) - Taylor had a wonderful shot to impress in 2008 on a roster decimated by injuries at WR, but he completely blew his shot and ended up on the Seahawks' practice squad by the end of the season. Taylor developed no chemistry with either Matt Hasselbeck or Seneca Wallace, and he caught just nine of the 25 balls thrown his way (that's really bad). Taylor was in Mike Holmgren's doghouse by Week Three and probably will need to impress the heck out of new coach Jim Mora to get out of it this year. He's competing for the final WR spot on the team.

Derek Stanley (Stl, 249th pick overall) - Stanley served as the primary kick returner for the Rams last season until he suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week Fifteen. But Stanley apparently is still the favorite to reprise his return role, and the added bonus this year is that the Rams are dreadfully thin at WR. That means Stanley could also see some time as a deep threat, which might help him improve upon the 6/119/1 line he had in limited opportunities on offense in 2008.

Paul Williams (Ten, 80th pick overall) - Williams has just one catch in two seasons with the Titans, has had injury problems, and the signing of Nate Washington plus the drafting of Kenny Britt don't exactly bode well for his future with the organization. If Williams makes the team, it will probably be as the last WR on the roster and will have been after an impressive camp in which he took advantage of his decent size. But if Williams doesn’t come on strong in this year’s training camp, he’s likely out of chances. Don't hold your breath for this guy.

Ryne Robinson (Car, 118th pick overall) - Robinson has just four catches in his career, all as a rookie in 2007, and he missed most of 2008 after being placed on IR with a knee injury in early October. Robinson is pint-sized (5'8") and is at absolute best the #4 receiver on the Panthers' depth chart as of right now. But he has a very good shot of making the roster because the latest from their OTAs has him leading the race to become Carolina's punt and kick return man. If he makes the roster, he should get some looks as a downfield threat and slot guy because the Panthers are extremely thin at WR.

Jordan Kent (Sea, 210th pick overall) - Kent has good size, but he has no NFL statistics. The Seahawks tried to use him as a red-zone threat, but he caught zero of his seven targets (including three inside the 20). Kent is competing with Courtney Taylor, among others, for the final WR spot on the Seattle roster. Tickets to this main event are already sold out.

Yamon Figurs (Bal, 74th pick overall) - It's going to be hard to get a read on what value (if any) Figurs will have as a WR this season. He doesn't have great size and has just two catches in his NFL career, although one went for a 43-yard score last season. Figurs is valuable to the Ravens as a return man, and he has one KR TD and one PR TD in his career. Figurs will be playing from behind this season, as he is out until training camp after undergoing foot surgery. If healthy and on the team, he's a deep threat and not much else for QB Joe Flacco, but we’re told the team is down on him.

Chris Davis (Ten, 128th pick overall) - Davis has just seven catches for 69 yards in two seasons with the Titans, and he's probably battling Paul Williams, among others, for the final spot on the team's roster. But Davis does have one thing going for him: He's sensed his place on the team and he's worked harder to separate himself, and coaches and veterans have noticed it. Davis added six pounds this off-season, and QB Kerry Collins noted to the media Davis' newfound confidence in his body and ability. This doesn't exactly leave Davis in a comfortable position, but as of now, he still has a job.

Tight Ends

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

Greg Olsen (Chi, 31st pick overall) - Olsen might be the surest player to break out at the TE position this year, and calling these type of things "sure" is usually relatively risky. But the addition of QB Jay Cutler means incredible things for Olsen, who's shown flashes of being an elite TE in his first two seasons but hasn't yet put together a complete campaign. Reports indicate that Cutler is already beginning to favor Olsen in workouts, and there are reasons for that. The biggest thing about Olsen that we like is the fact that he moves like a WR despite his great size, so he immediately becomes the best possession and PPR threat on a team that's relatively young and uncertain at the WR position. Although the new QB will obviously change things, the Bears threw to their TEs 156 times in 2008, which was third in all of football. And Cutler has a history of throwing to the TE even with studs at the WR position (Tony Scheffler, anyone?). Especially on a team with a lack of size at wide receiver, Olsen should be extremely active, since he’s probably the best option on the team when it comes to making tough, contested catches in traffic, and throwing those types of passes happens to be Cutler’s specialty. Olsen is also an excellent red zone receiver, thanks to his size and athleticism. The only thing that might hold Olsen back is the presence of Desmond Clark, a good TE in his own right. But Bear OC Ron Turner said last week that "we're seeing the evolution" of Olsen's ability heading into his third season. Olsen could be the best breakout candidate in this entire article.

Zach Miller (Oak, 38th pick overall) - Miller, despite lacking outstanding athleticism and size, developed into the favorite target for QB JaMarcus Russell in his second season, and we don't see any reason to think he won't be on pace to catch 60+ balls in the upcoming campaign with 32 pro starts now under his belt. Miller surprised as a rookie when he caught 44 balls, but in Year Two he not only increased that total to 58, but he raised his low YPC (10.1) to 13.9, one of the best totals among all TEs, which was encouraging. The reason Miller wasn't a home run in fantasy last year, though, was because he scored just 1 TD. To be honest, we don't think that was Miller's fault as much as it's a fault of the sterile Raider offense, in general. And conventional wisdom suggests that if Miller is in the 55-65 catch range again this year, it will be almost impossible for him to not score more TDs. One thing to watch is how he recovers from off-season hernia surgery, although he was worked slowly into practices, and he should be fine for training camp. With two years in the league, he should be ready to handle or continue to handle the prominent role he needs to have on a team with such limited experience at the wideout position.

Legit Breakout Candidates:

Brent Celek (Phi, 162nd pick overall) - Celek has shown the ability to take over games, despite some inconsistency on the field, and now he's the top dog in Philadelphia with L.J. Smith moved on to the Ravens. Celek really made a name for himself when he caught 10 balls for 83 yards and 2 TDs in a losing effort in the NFC Championship Game in January, after he had permanently claimed the starting role late in the regular season when Smith proved one final time that he couldn't be counted on. During the regular season, Celek went for 27/318/1 in a primarily reserve role, but he exploded for 131 yards in a single game at Seattle. That's the Celek we'd like to see more of. One thing we consistently hear about Celek is that he's a true workhorse and a "student of the game," just a guy who loves playing football. When exploring backup options at the TE position, that's a really good indicator that this guy’s going to be a nice safety blanket. Celek said his shoulder, which bothered him last year after early 2008 surgery, is now 100% healthy, and that he's confident his blocking is strong enough to warrant three-down playing time. In terms of fantasy value, one of the concerns here is the drafting of Cornelius Ingram, who could become a better red-zone threat for the Eagles. But Celek is the starter. The other concern, and it’s a big one, is: Can he truly excel now that he’s the guy and won’t be afforded the luxury of catching defenses napping? That’s the key question with Celek, but his body of work so far is encouraging, and having two years in the league should help.

Kevin Boss (NYG, 153rd pick overall) - Boss was actually a disappointment to fantasy players who were expecting big things out of him last year, but from strictly a football standpoint, he solidified himself as an everyday player the Giants will definitely use. Boss was a sleeper pick last year after the Giants unloaded Jeremy Shockey, but while the red zone love was nice, he responded with a relatively pedestrian 33/384 stat line to go along with his 6 TDs, good for just 5.0 FPG. And it should definitely be noted that the addition of rookie TE Travis Beckum, a big guy who moves like a WR, could mean fewer looks for Boss, who didn't improve his production at all when Plaxico Burress missed time last year. But the reason Boss is a viable fantasy back-up threat is because he established himself, quite simply, as one of the best blockers at the position. That means he's still the #1 TE and he's still going to get on the field. Given the Giants' willingness to throw him the ball in the red zone, owners could certainly do worse than Boss as a bench option.

Have a chance:

Derek Schouman (Buf, 222nd pick overall) - The Bills are somewhat high on Schouman, and he has shown flashes as a versatile player who can move around the line of scrimmage. We initially thought Schouman might be a sleeper when the Bills released Robert Royal, given his decent 15/153/1 line in 2008, but the addition of rookie TE Shawn Nelson means he obviously isn't in the Bills' long-term plans as the guy, so his fantasy value appears to be pretty limited. Where Schouman will be useful will be as an H-back type, but those types of players typically don't put up huge fantasy numbers despite being valuable to the Bill offense on the field. Nelson is too talented not to play, and Derek Fine is a better blocker, so Schouman, as far as the TE position goes, could be the odd man out. He'll play, but he won't have much value. Nelson should be the guy.

Dante Rosario (Car, 155th pick overall) - Rosario was a popular Waiver Wire pickup after his impressive Week One game in 2008, in which he went for 7/96 and a game-winning touchdown. Unfortunately for Rosario (and his owners), he caught just 11 balls, with no scores the rest of the season. He's an athletic and big TE with field-stretching ability, and frankly the Panthers are pretty thin beyond Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad at WR. But Rosario is still battling Jeff King for playing time, and the Panthers just don't throw to the TE often enough to make either of them viable fantasy options until proven otherwise. Muhammad once said that Chicago is where WRs go to die and, apparently, Carolina is where TEs go to meet their maker.

Well, they are still third-year receivers

Ben Patrick (Ari, 215th pick overall) - Patrick has some quickness and solid hands, and he showed flashes last year as a backup to Leonard Pope, but therein lies the issue. He's still the #2 TE on a team, not to mention the fact that the Cards don’t throw to the TE. He’s also been suspended for the first four games of the 2009 season for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. Patrick fessed up to taking Adderall to stay awake on a long road trip, and at the least, accepting the blame shows good character. But he's already behind in a pretty bad situation for TE fantasy value.

Matt Spaeth (Pit, 77th pick overall) - Spaeth had a solid game or two when he filled in for Heath Miller last season when Miller struggled with injuries, and he probably has a future as at least a second TE because of his phenomenal size (6'7", 270). Spaeth didn't score on any of his 17 receptions in 2008, but as a rookie, the Steelers used his size to their advantage at the goal line, and three of his five catches went for TDs. With Miller still around, Spaeth will mostly be used as that goal-line threat and as an extra blocker for their relatively weak offensive line. He'll play, but he's not a fantasy option at this point.

Second-Year Receivers

Wide Receivers

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

Eddie Royal (Den, 42nd pick overall) – Royal’s superb 2008 rookie season may have been the best we’ve seen from a Year One receiver since Anquan Boldin’s amazing debut in 2003. With WR Brandon Marshall missing the first two games of the season, Royal quickly became the go-to receiver for QB Jay Cutler. His first game, on Monday Night Football no less, was a spectacular 9/146/1 performance during the Broncos 41-14 thrashing of the Raiders in Oakland. Royal would finish the season with 91 catches, the second most ever for a rookie, behind – you guessed it – Boldin, who had 101. Royal also set Bronco rookie records for yards (980) and TDs (5). What set Royal apart from his fellow rookies, in addition to his sure hands, quickness, and sharp route-running, was his ability to quickly pick up the offense in their OTAs. From Day One in 2008, Royal did everything right and everything the team asked of him, and he was rewarded with a starting job. That’s rare, but it bodes extremely well for him in 2009 because there’s a challenge at hand with Cutler off to Chicago. Some are worried Royal could see a dip in numbers with QB Kyle Orton replacing Cutler and in a new system. But Royal has already shown the ability to pick up a system like a sponge, and his play last year speaks for itself. As long as top wideout Brandon Marshall is there to take pressure off him, Royal should continue to be a force to be reckoned with this year. But it is worth noting that the year’s experience should help him handle the tough task at hand.

DeSean Jackson (Phi, 49th pick) – Jackson started training camp last season buried on the Eagles’ depth chart, and the early expectation was that he would be utilized as a moveable chess piece – not their starter. But through stellar preseason play in practice and in their preseason games, and due to injuries to Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown, Jackson found himself starting Week One for Philadelphia. Jackson came out of his shell early, registering two 100+-yard receiving games in his first two weeks as a pro, and he continued producing through the season with a 62/912/2 line, leading the Eagles in receiving. The Eagles made it a point to get Jackson the ball – impressive for such a young player in a demanding scheme – and they had him returning punts as well as placing him under center in the Wildcat formation. But this year, the Eagles have even more weapons offensively, including the similar rookie WR Jeremy Maclin, so despite an impressive rookie campaign it might be tough for Jackson to repeat that in his second year. There are only so many balls to go around. Most people seem to be assuming his numbers are only going to get better in Year Two. We think Jackson the NFL player should get better, but while we feel he’s still very relevant for the Eagles and for fantasy, we’re not expecting his numbers to shoot up in 2009.

Legit Breakout Candidates:

Donnie Avery (Stl, 33rd pick overall) – Avery was the first receiver taken in the 2008 draft, and while it certainly wasn’t planned, thanks to Torry Holt’s knee problems, he found himself as something of a go-to guy by the time the season ended. The team let Holt go, which was a function of his age and health issues, but it was also a vote of confidence for Avery, who now leads a young receiving corps in St. Louis on a rebuilding team. With everyone trying to impress the new coaching staff, Avery will have to find his role in the new West Coast offense installed by OC Pat Shurmur, but it should certainly be as the #1 WR here. Shurmur comes over from Philadelphia, and he’ll run a version of the West Coast offense. The Eagles were a pass-happy team when Shurmur was there, so you have to assume they will throw the ball a good amount, so that’s good for Avery. Avery’s not the best fit for the system due to his lack of size, but Shurmur in Philadelphia saw them have success throwing to smaller receivers, which is good to know. Avery’s also stated recently that he likes the offense and how it allows receivers to freelance and make plays. His 2008 numbers (53/674/3) may not be gaudy but definitely show promise. He’d be a great example of a player poised to break out in his second season – if he was playing a #2 role and in the same offense as his rookie season. But neither is the case, so we’re a little skeptical. He’s a speedy playmaker, so he’s bound to have some bright moments, but producing consistently is going to be a tall order. At least he does have a year’s experience in the league and a year in which he played a lot in 2008.

Devin Thomas (Was, 34th pick overall) – The Redskins drafted Thomas with the hope that he and Malcolm Kelly would be the future of the receiving corps. Unfortunately, they both struggled with injuries last season, so opportunities were severely limited. Thomas at least started to see the field later in the season, averaging 3.2 pass targets per game in their final five games. He even scored on a 29-yard TD run. There is absolutely no doubt the Redskins would love to start Thomas this year. Then they could move veteran Antwaan Randle El to the slot, where he’s ideally suited to play. But to do that, Thomas must prove he’s ready for the prominent role. Thomas has ideal tools for the offense – size and speed – but he was considered raw coming out of college, and his rookie season did little to dispute that claim. However, QB Jason Campbell has said a lot of good things about Thomas’ route-running in the OTAs, and the QB is also impressed with his overall awareness, so the light may be coming on for him in Year Two. Ultimately, Thomas may need another year of seasoning, but if he shows enough this summer, the Redskins may still give him a chance to start on the outside. That would be a play-to-win decision, and with jobs possibly on the line, infusing some youth and juice into the lineup may be the prudent thing to do. We also need to keep an eye on Kelly, who was considered more NFL-ready than Thomas this time last year but who had more injury woes. And finally, if Thomas doesn’t step up this summer, it’s possible the team signs a veteran like D.J. Hackett, which just goes to show how much they need help and size in their starting lineup.

Josh Morgan (SF, 174th pick overall) – Drafted 130+ picks after a guy like James Hardy, a 2nd-round pick of the Bills last year, Morgan looks like the 2008 draft’s best value at the position, and the Niners will be the first to tell you that. As he enters his second season, Morgan, despite the return of Isaac Bruce and the drafting of top pick Michael Crabtree, is expected to compete for a starting job, and the team believes he can become a top-flight receiver this year. He fell ill and lost 15 pounds just before the 2008 season started after an impressive preseason. Despite that unfortunate start to his season, he finished with 20 catches for 319 yards and 3 TDs in 12 games. Morgan may not be a stud talent, but he’s shown tremendous ability and made some great catches last year, and the team has been very high on him for over a year now. He spent most of his time last year at split end, but he’s seen time this year at flanker, so he should be able to start at either spot this year. That flexibility is a key, since the team is looking to start its best two receivers, and right now Morgan definitely looks like he’s one of them. So with a year’s experience, if he continues to progress and proves impossible to keep off the field, Morgan could have a breakout season, despite the added competition and despite the 49ers having their deepest WRs corps in a decade.

Have a chance:

Chaz Schilens (Oak, 226th pick) - Schilens came on late last year as a potentially reliable target for JaMarcus Russell. He caught six passes and scored twice in the last two games alone, a good sign for his future potential as a possession receiver. Ideally, the Raiders would love to use Schilens as a guy to run intermediate routes, where his size (6'4") and leaping ability is put to use. Fortunately for both parties, Schilens has, so far, been extremely impressive in minicamps and is probably the #1 favorite on the roster to grab one of the two starting WR positions. The thing about Schilens is that he doesn't fit the Raiders' obsession with burning speed, which might actually work out in his favor because he can be used in different ways than Darrius Heyward-Bey or Johnnie Lee Higgins.

Earl Bennett (Chi, 70th pick overall) – Bennett is being pegged as a sleeper this season for a few reasons. He’s part of a very young and unproven receiving corps in Chicago that by no means has any roles solidified. But the most interesting reason Bennett is getting so much attention is his connection to new Bear QB Jay Cutler. In 2005, Cutler was a senior at Vanderbilt and his #1 receiver was a first-year Commodore named Earl Bennett. Bennett would go on to catch 79 balls for 876 yards and 9 TDs, which was good for nearly 43% of Cutler’s TD production and 28% of his passing yards. When Bennett had his pro day in 2008, Cutler was the one throwing to him, so the duo certainly does have a good rapport. Now you have Cutler coming to a new situation in Chicago, and Bennett’s the only receiver in the Windy City with whom he has previous experience. Bennett has only decent size, and he’s not very fast or explosive, but he’s considered a very good route-runner, knows how to get open, and he has very good hands. For now, he’s slotted into the starting lineup, so in theory, all the pieces are in place for him to have a breakout season. However, while we like Bennett, the fact remains his sampling in the NFL is literally non-existent. This is a player who didn’t register a catch in his rookie 2008 season, and he was involved in only 16 total plays last year. Bennett projects best as their slot receiver, with rookie Juaquin Iglesias ideally starting alongside Devin Hester on the outside. Even if that’s the case, Bennett should have some value in his second year and with some experience under his belt. If Bennett does step up in his second season, then he could possibly retain the starting spot, so he’d have even more value.

Malcolm Kelly (Was, 51st pick overall) – Kelly was taken just 17 picks after the ‘Skins grabbed Devin Thomas early in the second round last year (34th overall), as the team was attempting to solidify its receiving corps by adding some size, as well as some youth. He had a rough time last year, however, thanks to a nagging knee injury that limited him to just five games and only 3 receptions for 18 yards. The good news is that he made a favorable impression when he practiced and played last year, more so than Thomas most likely, and his size and physicality are certainly needed in Washington. Even better news this off-season, the microfracture surgery on his knee wasn’t as serious as first thought, and as of early June, he was back practicing with the team, presumably on track to open up training camp close to 100%. Although his role isn’t very clear, it would appear that he should be, at worst, their #4 WR. If Kelly impresses, however, and Thomas fails to prove worthy of more playing time, it’s not out of the realm of possibility Kelly steals a lot more playing time than expected. First up, he has to show he is healthy and can stay healthy. But with veteran James Thrash released, Randle-El playing out of position as the #2, and Thomas still raw and inexperienced, Kelly should get chances to prove that he should be part of the game plan every week.

Jordy Nelson (GB, 36th pick overall) – Although he plays behind an excellent starting duo of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, Nelson has the chance to shine in 2009 on the pass-happy Packers. The former Kansas State walk-on was a highly touted receiving prospect coming out, and he didn’t really disappoint, all things considered. Nelson quietly had a respectable rookie campaign going 33/366/2 while appearing in all 16 games. This Packers team is fairly young, so each year playing together is another chance to become more acquainted with the weapons in your offense. That is especially true for QB Aaron Rodgers, who had a phenomenal first year as the starter for the Packers last season. Nelson will only get better from playing with a guy like Rodgers, and because they’re both early in their careers, they’ll have the chance to develop chemistry that could make Nelson a valuable part of this team going forward. All Nelson is really doing, however, is biding his time and doing whatever he can to replace Driver in 1-2 years. However, if Driver goes down with an injury, that 2008 in the books will come in handy for the ultra-talented Nelson. Otherwise, we can’t expect much for fantasy if he’s stuck as the #3.

Limas Sweed (Pit, 53rd pick overall) – Remember when Big Ben was pushing the Steelers to get him a taller receiver? That was supposed to be Sweed. He ended up playing in only 11 games and registered just six catches for 64 yards and was most remembered for his sure-TD drop in the AFC Championship game or, on the brighter side, his vicious block on Raven CB Corey Ivy in the same game. What Sweed wants to be known as is the Steelers’ #3 WR this season. He finds himself in a battle for that spot with rookie Mike Wallace and veteran Shaun McDonald. Sweed will need to set himself apart by using his unique combination of size and speed. The one vote of confidence he did get from the team was their willingness to let WR Nate Washington go to the Titans. The door is open for Sweed to succeed in 2009, but it will be up to him to walk through it. The good news for Sweed is that he has slowly but surely showed signs in the OTAs that he’s starting to get comfortable, and his confidence level is up. That bodes well for his chances at claiming that #3 role, and it’s especially important if either Hines Ward or Santonio Holmes misses time with an injury. If that’s the case, Sweed’s on-the-job training in 2008 should help a lot.

Harry Douglas (Atl, 84th pick overall) – With rookie QB Matt Ryan leading the team to the playoffs and WR Roddy White and RB Michael Turner earning their first Pro Bowl selections, it was easy to overlook Douglas’ rookie season. It may not have gaudy production, but it was pretty flashy, as he finished the season with 23/320 while scoring a receiving, rushing, and return TD. He’s another guy who’ll benefit from playing in a young, high-powered offense, and the addition of TE Tony Gonzalez will only give him more chance to get open. Of course, Gonzo’s presence should mean fewer looks for Douglas. But this is a player with terrific speed, above-average quickness, sticky hands, strong football smarts, and a good work ethic. He’s also pretty scrappy, as evidenced by his taking a swing last year at 13-year veteran and tough guy Lawyer Milloy in training camp. His upside is limited on this team, but there’s no question he’s a nice little player who can add some dynamism to their offense, so he’s someone to have on your radar.

Keenan Burton (Stl, 128th pick overall) – Burton started the 2008 season very quietly, but by the end of the year, it was apparent that he found his role in the offense. Now that Torry Holt is gone, Burton and teammate Donnie Avery both have said they are prepared for increased roles in the offense. Burton and Avery have worked with the first-team in minicamp and Burton looks to be, at worst, the #3. If he beats Laurent Robinson out for a starting job, then he’d actually be a viable late pick in fantasy drafts. Although his numbers were far from amazing (13/172/1), he is going to get more chances in yet another offense that lacks a bona fide #1 WR. Burton isn’t a burner, and he’s not considered a great route-runner, plus he’s not exactly sharp coming out of his breaks. But he’s a physical presence with good hands, and he’s considered a high-character guy. He showed flashes of having a future in the league last year, so he’s someone to keep an eye on now that he has a great opportunity and some experience.

Davone Bess (Mia, Undrafted) – Bess was last year’s winner of the right-place-at-the-right-time award, and he had one of the best rookie seasons ever for an undrafted receiver. While he was primarily used as a return man early on, Bess stepped up in the absence of Greg Camarillo, who went down with a knee injury in Week Twelve. Playing in 17 games and taking over the starting role for Camarillo, Bess would finish with 54 catches for 554 yards and a TD. He registered a catch in every single game, and became one of QB Chad Pennington’s most reliable targets. Without Bess, the Dolphins may not have made the postseason, as he became a very important part of their offensive game plan every week. Bess will probably be the #3 WR this year if Camarillo can come back from his knee injury, but at this point he has become entrenched in this offense, and he’s an ideal slot receiver. Given the experience he gained last year, he could duplicate 2008’s shocking production if given the chance.

Andre Caldwell (Cin, 97th pick overall) – Caldwell enters 2009 with a chance to lock down a fairly prominent role as the team’s 3rd-down receiver. Thanks to the departure of WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Caldwell looks like he could take over the slot receiver role, but with Chris Henry still on the team and looking promising this off-season, Caldwell is technically still only the team’s 4th receiver. He will also continue to contribute on special teams as a KR, where he average 26 yards per return in late season action. Caldwell did a decent job last year, and he’s lost some weight and appears to be quicker this year, so combined with his good hands, smarts, and athleticism, he could give them a little more juice inside than they got with TJH. The return of QB Carson Palmer, who has fully endorsed his receiving corps, will only help the young Caldwell, and could make him an important part of this offense. His added experience, however, is the key.

Marcus Smith (Bal, 106th pick overall) – Smith didn’t register any statistics in 2008, despite playing in 10 games (including 3 in the playoffs) for the Ravens. He is expected to battle for the #3 spot, and he was noted for his big plays during a May minicamp where it appeared he and QB Joe Flacco were developing some nice chemistry. Obviously, Smith still has a lot to prove, but with the position being thin as is, Smith has a chance to see more time this season. We were very impressed with him seeing him up close at Raven camp last summer, and he was one of their better stories in camp last year. Like Anquan Boldin, he’s big, physical, is a great run-after-the-catch guy, and he runs good routes. He should be better off with a year’s experience, so he’s definitely someone to watch.

Well, they are still second-year receivers

Early Doucet (Ari, 81st pick overall) – Doucet enters his second season as part of one of the most explosive offenses in football. While he played in only nine games, two of those came in the playoffs en route the Cardinals’ run to the Super Bowl. He caught only 14 balls for 90 yards and no TDs, but considering he played behind three 1000-yard receivers, he shouldn’t be too discouraged. Doucet’s a pretty good player, and so far this off-season he appears to be much better off with a year’s experience under his belt (he’s also healthy, something he wasn’t in 2008). He saw a lot of extra playing time in the OTAs while veteran Anquan Boldin skipped out on voluntary workouts, and he impressed with his ability to learn the offense, and his ability to make tough catches. He was also able to establish some chemistry with QB Kurt Warner. Doucet projects best as a slot receiver, so if for some reason Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, or Steve Breaston isn’t on the field, don’t be surprised if he steps right in and offers a significant contribution. 

Jerome Simpson (Cin, 46th overall pick) - Simpson caught just one pass as a rookie, despite being one of the first receivers taken off the board, and reviews of his off-season progress have been mixed. In March, QB Carson Palmer praised Simpson for his effort and said it was evident the second-year receiver had "been working." But while he’s showcased his athleticism in the OTAs and has made some nice downfield catches, other reports suggest Simpson is still sluggish and unpolished as a route runner, and his average speed on top of that meant that DBs had no problem containing him. It looks like third-round pick Andre Caldwell has settled in past Simpson on the depth chart, and although it's still early, Simpson hasn't shown any reason to believe the light bulb will turn on this year.

Mario Manningham (NYG, 95th pick overall) – Manningham didn’t do much last year, despite the team desperately needing production of out the WR position after Plaxico Burress became a non-factor down the stretch. He appeared in just seven games, including the last five of the regular season, but he finished with only 4 catches for 26 yards. With Burress now gone for good, the Giant WR corps is a collection of  young, unproven players that really doesn’t have a #1 at the present time. The coaching staff believes Manningham can play anywhere on the field, which makes him a valuable backup for a team that lacks versatility at receiver. He also practiced as a punt returner, so if nothing else, he should see time there. With no clear-cut starters, Manningham could make some waves if he makes the most of his time on the field, and having a year under his belt can only help him. Don’t expect much from him, however, since he appears to be nothing more than a rotational receiver in the NFL. He’s a long-strider and a poor route-runner, and he doesn’t always compete to the fullest.

James Hardy (Buf, 41st pick overall) – Hardy had a pretty quiet rookie season that was ended by an ACL injury in Week Fifteen. His recovery continues, and he expects to be ready to play in preseason games. Before his injury, Hardy played in fourteen games for the Bills, catching 9 balls for 87 yards and 2 TDS. He’ll enter his second season with little to get excited about, thanks to the arrival of WR Terrell Owens. Say what you will about Owens’ attitude, but he is a professional when it comes to the receiving fundamentals. Hardy will only benefit from playing with and learning from a future Hall-of-Famer in Owens. Hardy could certainly find himself as a somewhat-active red zone target for QB Trent Edwards because he possesses good size (6’5”, 212), but we’ve been down on this guy from Day One, and he proved us correct in 2008. He lacks optimal playing speed, his route-running is poor, and he fails to embrace the physical aspect of the game. Basically, we think he’s a bum. 

Steve Johnson (Buf, 224th pick overall) – Johnson has almost no chance to settle in as anything better than the #5 WR spot on the Bills, and that isn’t a knock on him. Johnson just happens to play for a team that added Terrell Owens in the off-season and already had a great #2 in Lee Evans, as well as a pair of good slot receivers. However, as a 7th-round pick in 2008, Johnson did everything he could with the opportunities he was given last year. He finished with 10 catches for 102 yards and 2 TDs, which came in only 11 games. He has found himself this off-season starting in three-WR sets, thanks to the absence of Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish, and he continue to impress with his performance so far. Johnson realize that he will have to do a lot to impress, considering his position on the team, but if he continues to improve, there is a chance we hear his name called more often as the season goes on, especially if Owens gets hurt.

Dexter Jackson (TB, 58th pick overall) – Jackson has a lot to prove after many – including the man who drafted him, former HC Jon Gruden – said he may have been a reach in the 2nd round last year. Jackson did not register a catch in the seven games he appeared in last year. He’ll have to prove himself to the new regime in Tampa Bay, but because he is a higher pick, he could still get an opportunity to, especially on a rebuilding team with not much depth at the WR position. Jackson’s a smaller receiver who projects best as a slot receiver due to his lack of size but excellent quickness and speed. When drafted, he was viewed as the replacement for Joey Galloway, but that’s a pipe dream at this point. The team’s looking at veteran receivers, so the best Jackson can hope for this year is some playing time when the team goes three-wide, and even that’s no lock.

Lavelle Hawkins (Ten, 126th pick overall) – Hawkins was a highly touted receiver coming out of Cal in 2008. He didn’t have a very good rookie season, finishing with only seven catches for 68 yards in 13 games. OC Mike Heimerdinger attributes his slow start to his thinking too much, which prohibited Hawkins from playing at his full speed. However, the staff believes he will get better as he gets more comfortable, which Hawkins completely agrees with. Hawkins will get a chance to compete for playing time, considering the receiving corps is currently led by Justin Gage and Nate Washington, not to mention rookie Kenny Britt. Hawkins is in a great position because the staff really believes he can be a good player, which means the opportunities will be there for him to improve and contribute. The key is his ability to play the slot, a spot vacated in the off-season by Brandon Jones.

Isaiah Stanback (Dal, 103rd overall pick) - Stanback is one of those guys who is battling for playing time (and a roster spot) in training camp, but he might be able to sneak himself onto the roster because of his versatility. Stanback has just two catches in his NFL career, but he has also returned kicks. But the thing that is going to make him most valuable to the Cowboys or any other potential suitors is the fact that he played QB in college at Washington. Dallas owner Jerry Jones has said the team will begin running Wildcat formations using Stanback under center, and they would have done it last year if Stanback hadn’t gotten hurt. Oh yeah, speaking of being hurt, Stanback had off-season surgery on both his shoulder and his knee, although he should be ready to go by training camp. That's where he'll have to prove his worth.
 
Pierre Garcon (Ind, 205th pick overall) – Garcon may not have made much an impact in his rookie season (4/23/0), but that doesn’t mean he’ll be looked over by the QB. Peyton Manning has come out and said to Garcon and the other receivers battling for the #3 spot that they should believe that the spot is theirs to lose. If Garcon were to win the job, he would be an immediate player to watch for the mere fact that he is a WR with Manning throwing him the ball. Right now he has an advantage over rookie Austin Collie because of his experience, but Collie looks to be the better player, and he should eventually settle in as the #3.

William Franklin (Oak, 105th pick overall) – Franklin can’t seem to stick with any teams so far in his young career. Originally drafted by the Chiefs in 2008, he played in 13 games, catching 7 balls for 83 yards. He was cut in April, and eventually claimed by the Lions off waivers. Detroit would cut him a month later, but the Raiders scooped him up just a few days after that. Multiple teams had put in claims for Franklin, so he obvious was of some interest to them. He’ll join a Raider team with a very inexperienced receiving corps, so if he impresses in camp, he has a shot to make the team. He has a pretty solid combination of size and speed, so he may still stick in the NFL.

Paul Hubbard (Cle, 191st pick) - Hubbard has excellent size (6'2", 225) and is a great athlete, but "raw" wouldn't even begin to describe him. In other words, if he were a steak, he'd still be breathing. He spent the entire year on the Cleveland practice squad before being called up in late December, but he didn't actually see the field at all. The Browns actually have a nice set of young receivers now, so Hubbard will be fighting an uphill climb to make the roster this year. But he's impressive enough physically to catch the attention of some other squads, if not the Browns.

John Broussard (Chi, 229th pick) - Broussard hasn't seen the field since garnering 4/126/1 in eight games during his rookie season with the Jaguars in 2007. Broussard has great speed and decent size for that speed (6'1"), but he just hasn't been able to put the total package together. The Jags released him after training camp last year, and in October, the Giants cut him from their practice squad. He finished the season on the Bears' practice squad, where he now remains, trying to snag one of the final spots on the roster. But he could get lost in another numbers game.

Arman Shields (Oak, 125th pick overall) – Shields missed the 2008 season with a knee injury that continues to sideline him through the off-season. The Raiders drafted him being of his speed, which included the second-best 40-yard dash at the Combine. He is not a lock to make the team, but his speed should be a valuable asset if he did.

Kenneth Moore (Car, 136th pick overall) – Moore was originally drafted by the Lions last year and assigned to their practice squad, but he signed by the Panthers in October. A hamstring injury limited him for most of the season, and he would end up on the injured reserve. He returns this season in the running for a roster spot, and he can contribute both as a WR and KR. The Panthers are another team that is short at the WR position, so Moore could contribute if he makes the team.

Adrian Arrington (NO, 237th pick) - Arrington's a tall and lanky receiver who spent his entire rookie season on injured reserve with a toe injury. He's going to be battling to make the New Orleans roster, but he's in a place where receivers can shine if they show they can make plays, and Arrington has a good amount of talent.

Mario Urrutia (NYJ, 246th pick) - Urrutia failed to make an impact with the Bengals and was cut on June 20. But he's got TE size (6'6", 242), so he was attractive to the Jets, who signed him this week.

Jaymar Johnson (Min, 193rd pick overall) – After spending most of 2008 on the practice squad, Johnson returns in 2009 with a legit chance to make the roster as the final WR. He has also worked as a KR, which boosts his value to the team. Johnson put on 17 pounds in the off-season, and HC Brad Childress has taken notice, even going as far as calling Johnson the hardest worker on the team. With a player being that motivated and it being noticed, Johnson is looking like he may find his way onto the Viking roster.

Tight Ends

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

John Carlson (Sea, 38th pick overall) – Carlson may not be a household name, but you sure did appreciate the fine rookie season he had if he was on your roster. His 55/627/4 would be considered good for any TE, but considering he played on a bad team with an unstable QB situation, and that it was his rookie year, it look that much better. Carlson is a complete TE in that he can catch, block, and play every down. This year, his team looks a bit better on offense with the return of a healthy QB Matt Hasselbeck along with the addition of WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The team’s RBs are still iffy receiving options at best, so Carlson should continue to command the ball. Carlson has already settled in as a vital cog in this passing game, so the experienced gained in 2008 should help him handle the extra attention he’ll receiver and prevent a sophomore slump.

Legit Breakout Candidates:

Dustin Keller (NYJ, 32nd pick overall) – While many thought the Jets were crazy for trading up to get a player they probably could have gotten without moving up in the draft, they ended up looking smart for making sure they got their guy, since Keller was worth the price. It did take Keller some time to get going in his rookie season, but that was understandable, since he had to compete for time with TEs Bubba Frank and Chris Baker. He ended up playing in all 16 games (starting six time), and finished with 48/535/3. Now, Keller finds himself at the top of the depth chart, and on a team in transition. Thanks to a questionable receiving corps and a QB situation that will involve an unproven guy in either Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens, Keller could become the most important pass-catcher on the team, so the year of experience gained in 2008 is key. Keller looks like a WR playing the TE position, so while he’s not known for his blocking, it wouldn’t be that surprising to see him lead the team in receiving this season.

Brad Cottam (KC, 76th pick overall) – As TE Tony Gonzalez’s backup last season, Cottam played in all 16 games (starting seven times) and finished with just 7 catches for 63 yards. Now that Gonzalez is gone, Cottam is fully expected to be the starter when the season rolls around. He’s a very large individual at 6’7”, 270, who can block and be a downfield threat. The team is thin at the WR position, so with a new QB in Matt Cassel, Cottam could find himself seeing a lot of targets, especially in the red zone with his size. HC Todd Haley will obviously run a pass-heavy offense, and even though Cottam is still young and unproven, the team really needs him to step up. It’s early, but he unfortunately hasn’t done that in the OTAs. He’s dropped too many passes, and as the team enters training camp, he will not be entrenched as the starter. That’s unfortunate, and he needs to turn things around quickly in August.

Have a chance:

Jermichael Finley (GB, 91st pick overall) – Finley became very well known on the Packers in his rookie season. Unfortunately, it was for his mouth. Whether he was calling out QB Aaron Rodgers for not throwing him the ball or questioning the coaching staff for how they used him, Finley did not endear himself to anyone. He has promised to let his play do the talking for him this year after finishing 2008 with 6/74/1. Finley admitted that he did not know the playbook as well as he should have, and that made him slow down during plays. In an effort to change that, he’s been meeting with TE coach Bob McAdoo after each OTA to go over film. At 6’5”, 247, Finley has the size to be a good TE, but he is also the best athlete at the position on the Packers. If Finley can play as well this year as he ran his mouth last year, he might just become a productive player in this league. Based on his positive off-season, the team is optimistic, and he may even be a sleeper in 2009.

Martellus Bennett (Dal, 61st pick overall) – Bennett became better known for his off-field antics than his on-field production, particularly the ribbing he took on HBO’s Hard Knocks last summer. Of course, when you play with arguably the best TE in the league in Jason Witten, it is easy to get overshadowed. Bennett actually had an admirable rookie season, finishing with 20/283/4 in sixteen games and seven starts. With Witten not going anywhere anytime soon, Bennett was drafted to give the team another weapon on offense, so Bennett saw the field in 2 TE-sets that would let him exploit matchup problems with his 6’6”, 265-pound body. While it took some time, Bennett did pick up the offense and worked a lot on technique with Witten. While he will never put up great numbers as long as Witten is still on the team, Bennett is still a very talented player who should excel for years to come. If Witten does go down, Bennett will likely prove to be in over his head, but he’ll be much better off than he would have been last year.

Martin Rucker (Cle, 111th pick overall) – Rucker’s rookie season was pretty forgettable. He was the backup to TE Kellen Winslow, played in only five games, and caught just two balls. Now, Winslow is gone, and Rucker finds himself in the middle of an unstable TE situation in Cleveland. The team signed former Bill TE Robert Royal, and they already have Steve Heiden, who is coming off a torn ACL/sprained MCL. Rucker is not the complete player those guys are because he’s not a great blocker, but he’s the most athletic. While at Missouri, he was considered more physical and quicker than teammate TE Chase Coffman, who was more highly regarded in this year’s draft. Rucker has good size (6’5”, 260) and could become a nice red zone threat for the Browns. He won’t likely start right away, but if he comes on in his second training camp, he could be utilizes in a rotational situation, which would allow him to potentially showcase his skills. His first year wasn’t very encouraging, but there is a tremendous opportunity in Year Two. 

Well, they are still second-year receivers

Derek Fine (Buf, 132nd pick overall) – The Bills have a bit of a mess at TE, and Fine is right in the middle of it. Fine is the best blocker of the group, teammate Derek Schouman is more of an H-back who can play anywhere, and rookie Shawn Nelson is easily the best receiver of them all. Fine finished 2008 with 10/94/1 in just 10 games as the #3 TE behind Schouman and Robert Royal. He is expected to continue his role as a blocker, and he probably won’t have much value from a fantasy standpoint, considering the situation he’s currently in.

Jacob Tamme (Ind, 127th pick) – After an impressive rookie preseason, Tamme's 2008 season was a buzz kill, but it’s too early to write him off. He had some injury issues, but early in the year, he was ahead of Santi as the #2 TE for the team. He’s a good receiver who understands the passing game, knows how to get open, and reminds us of former Colt backup Ben Utecht, based on his size and receiving prowess. He caught only three passes as a rookie in 2008, and his fantasy value and potential is limited because Dallas Clark is one of the most prolific TEs in the business. But Tamme should make the roster because he’s talented, probably more so than Santi.

Tom Santi (Ind, 196th pick overall) – Santi may not be much of a factor in the Colt offense because he is at best the backup to Dallas Clark, but he was part of one of their best games of 2008. Santi caught the game-winning TD (the first of his career) in the Colts’ amazing 31-27 comeback against the Texans in Week Five. He finished with 10/64/1 in just 6 games and ended up on the injured reserve after suffering a shoulder injury in Week Eleven. He’s viable, but we like Tamme better. We’ll see who emerges between the two as the clear #2.

Fred Davis (Was, 48th pick overall) – The Redskins were not exactly pleased with the effort put out by Davis in his rookie season. There was in the incident in minicamp where he overslept and missed a morning practice. Then HC Jim Zorn pretty much threw him under the bus after a Week Eleven loss to the Cowboys, when he said that Davis wasn’t involved more because he was not completing his assignments due to the fact that nothing was registering with him. Those aren’t exactly the comments you wanted to hear about your 2nd-round pick over halfway through the season. However, Zorn seems to notice a difference in Davis this year, and Davis himself said he feels more confidence and familiarity in the system, which lets him play at full speed and rely on his instincts. Obviously, Davis is in a situation where unless TE Chris Cooley gets hurt, he won’t be the top TE on the team, but he should definitely be able to improve on his 3 catches for 27 yards from 2008. He’s more athletic than Cooley and may even better a better fit for the system, so he’s someone to watch if Cooley goes down.

Gary Barnidge (Car, 141st pick overall) – Barnidge did not register a catch in his rookie season, but that does not mean he’s an afterthought for 2009. In fact, with such a bad TE group, Barnidge could find himself making significant contributions to the Panthers as a pass-catching TE, which is something they have lacked in recent years. Yes, they have Jeff King back as a starter and Dante Rosario returns after finishing up strong last season, but Barnidge can stretch the field better than both. After playing in 14 games last year, mostly on special teams, he says he feels more comfortable in the offense and is willing to do whatever the team asks. Barnidge may not get a lot of opportunities, at least not right away, because of his place on the depth chart, but he could still be an intriguing player to watch in 2009.

Craig Stevens (Ten, 85th pick overall) – Stevens was taken by the Titans at the end of the 3rd round in 2008 as a replacement for TE Ben Hartsock. He was primarily used a blocker, although he does have good hands, despite catching only one pass all season. Stevens did play in all 17 games, including the playoffs, and he has definitely found his spot on the team. With pass-catching TEs like Bo Scaife, Alge Crumpler, and rookie Jared Cook on the team, it appears that Stevens will be primarily considered a blocking TE.

Kellen Davis (Chi, 158th pick overall) – Davis played in all 16 games in his rookie season, but he did not record a catch. He will continue to be the #3 TE behind Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark while being used primarily as a blocker because of his size (6’7”, 262) to continue to build on the excellent running game the team had last year.

 Subscribe for 2009 Here!

Back to the top