
2009 Sample Article
However, a combination of youth an experience can be a very good
thing, as we saw yet again in 2008 when 7 of the top-20 fantasy
wideouts last year – as well as the Super Bowl’s MVP – were players
in either their second or third seasons. So while the “Third-Year
WR” theory has proven to be somewhat of a fallacy, its main thesis
remains accurate: Experience can only be a good thing in the
National Football League, especially for receiver. And if you’re
still running with extremely fresh legs, that’s even better.
So once again we begin our journey looking for breakout receivers by
taking a look at all the league’s receivers entering their second or
third seasons.
Let’s start with the beloved third-year receivers…
Wide Receivers
Already broken out but even more experience helps:
Calvin Johnson (Det, 2nd
overall pick) - To understand just how freakishly good Johnson is,
notice that he put up a 78/1331/12 line on the worst team in
football history, with a career backup and a veteran coaxed out of
retirement midseason throwing him the football. There is nothing
left, then, for Johnson to bust out of, and anything less than what
he accomplished last year would, frankly, be a disappointment at
this point. The Lions are hoping Johnson and top pick QB
Matthew
Dwayne Bowe (KC, 23rd
overall pick) - There are some very good signs for Bowe going
forward. First of all, he improved on a great rookie campaign with
an impressive 2008, throwing up big numbers, with 86/1022/7, all
this despite playing on a shaky offense and with his third QB in two
seasons (Tyler Thigpen).
It's good that Bowe has shown the ability to adjust and develop with
a new QB because he's going to have to do it again with
Matt Cassel coming into
town. Bowe immediately becomes a top WR threat and a legitimate
fantasy #1 prospect because he's easily Cassel's best target in new
coach Todd Haley's
spread offense. We've heard 100 catches being thrown around as a
possible total for Bowe, and we don't see why that isn't realistic,
especially with TE Tony
Gonzalez moved on to Atlanta. Perhaps most important to fantasy
owners, the absence of Gonzalez leaves a big void to be filled
around the goal line, which means Bowe could see more chances in
scoring situations, and he was already tied for first in 2008 with
10 pass targets inside the 10. He may not be a great speed guy who
can make plays down the field, and he may not be truly special
(although he looked scary-good in training camp in 2008), but he’s
been pretty been impressive in each of his first two seasons and
improved across the board last year, showing he was able to handle
the pressure of commanding 156 targets (3rd most in the
league at WR). It is, however, disconcerting how he reportedly
showed up to the team’s OTAs this spring 20-25 pounds overweight.
It’s a red flag, but Bowe’s reportedly done what he can to get back
to his normal playing weight, and he is a big, physical receiver, so
a few extra points shouldn’t be a huge problem. It’s also worth
noting that he’s had problems with drops in the OTAs, as he appears
to be looking for the big plays rather than making routine catches.
That’s also a concern, so Bowe needs to turn things around quickly
and have a good camp. Overall, we like the player, and we sure like
the system Bowe is in. Two years of seasoning should help him
considerably as he attempts to shoulder even more of the receiving
load in KC – assume he doesn’t regress, as he appeared to be doing
in the OTAs.
Anthony Gonzalez (Ind, 32nd
overall pick) – Gonzalez has already been a consistent weapon for
the Colts, and he’s clearly already developed excellent chemistry
with Peyton Manning,
which means he’ll always have value as a player for the Colts and
for fantasy. Gonzalez hasn't yet had that monster season we've come
to expect from talented Indy WRs, but you could argue he simply
hasn’t had the opportunity to, since he’s been only the #3 most of
his two years in Indy. Back in 2007, from Weeks Twelve through
Sixteen, when he was subbing for an injured
Marvin Harrison, he was
the 12th-best fantasy wideout in the land, so he’s
already shown his potential in this offense when in a prominent
role.
Steve Breaston (Ari, 142nd
overall pick) - Breaston's the perfect example of a guy ending up in
the perfect place and the perfect system for his NFL career, and he
responded with an out-of-nowhere 77/1003/3 breakout campaign last
season. The year before, he caught only 8 more passes than Abe
Vigoda. There's no way Breaston will have the chance to catch
defenses by surprise anymore, but he can show that his ’08 season
wasn't a fluke. Even if he does that, though, he probably won't have
as much fantasy value as he did in 2008, since a 1000+-yard trio at
WR usually requires planetary alignment for it to happen anyway, and
the Cards probably won’t throw quite as much this year. At this
point, it seems almost 100% certain that
Anquan Boldin will be
catching passes in the desert for at least another season, and the
bottom line is that means Breaston is once again a #3 WR unless
Boldin is traded or makes good on his threat to hold out for the
entire season (unlikely). But while Breaston was a revelation last
year, his being in his third season is still important because he
clearly benefited from his unique situation. Now, with two years in,
if he is asked to take on a large role, he should be better-equipped
to handle it.
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2009 Breakout Receivers
Published,
6/26/09
NFL football is a young man’s game, but while every once in a while
a player like wideout Eddie
Royal puts up jaw-dropping numbers in his first campaign, the
fact remains that for most receivers, youth isn’t necessarily a good
thing. With youth, of course, comes inexperience, and the learning
curve for receivers in this league is usually quite steep.
Legit Breakout Candidates:
Ted
Ginn (Mia, 9th pick
overall) - Reports this off-season have said that Ginn looks better
than good. In fact, "dominant" has been thrown around when talking
about Ginn, and Dolphin coach
Tony Sparano has said
that Ginn is more confident than ever in his abilities. GM
Jeff
Mike
Walker (Jac, 79th pick
overall) - 2008 was a quiet year for Walker, since he started only
one of the nine games he played in and made just 16 catches, but
things should be much different in 2009, really different. After
missing his 2007 rookie season with a knee injury and missing games
due to a knee infection and personal issues last year,
Have a chance:
Robert Meachem
(NO, 27th pick overall) - At this point, it'd be hard to
attribute Meachem's utter uselessness as a fantasy player to
anything but his being a knucklehead (and a decent bit to nagging
injuries). Think about it. Meachem's played (and we use "played"
lightly) for two seasons in the NFL's most prolific passing offense
after the Saints used a first-round pick on him. But Meachem didn't
even catch a ball as a rookie and was a distant second to
Devery "Brick Hands"
Sidney Rice
(Min, 44th pick overall) - Rice had a decent rookie
season in 2007, and he seemed like a guy who was primed to take a
bigger role on a team with less-than-stellar WRs. But Rice's
production was alarmingly trimmed due almost entirely to injury, and
he fell from 31 catches to 15, despite playing in the same number of
games (12). The good news is that Rice has recorded 8 TDs with just
the 46 career catches, showing that he has at least one useful NFL
skill, as a red zone threat. Rice battled all last season with a PCL
sprain, but he's looked sharp in spring camps and he assured the
media that he’s feeling 100% for the first time in a while. But
still, the fact that he couldn't command more pass targets over the
mediocre Bobby Wade for
playing time is disconcerting, as is the drafting of
Percy Harvin, a weapon
who absolutely has to see the field. Rice doesn't have an
outstanding skill set, but he has good size and is a good leaper in
the red zone, plus he can sneak downfield at times. The WR rotation
is still a little up in the air, but if he retains a starting spot
on the outside, he could become a fringe fantasy WR (especially if
Brett Favre comes back
and is throwing the football to him). If he doesn't win a job, he'll
be used sparingly in the red zone, just like last season. Rice
doesn’t appear to be bursting with fantasy potential right now, but
it’s worth noting that he looked like an ascending player with some
upside just one year ago, and his added experience can only help.
David Clowney
(NYJ, 157th pick overall) -
We're pretty confident we've
devoted as much or more space on this former Packer than any other
fantasy site, especially since there's only so much you can squeeze
out of Clowney's one career catch in two seasons. But this coming
season could be the perfect storm for Clowney’s career. The Jets
have basically nothing at WR, and there's a wide-open starting spot
opposite Jerricho Cotchery.
In terms of experience,
Chansi Stuckey seems to have the upper hand to grab it, but
Clowney has performed well in preseason (8/222/2 last year), has
wonderful separation speed, and his skill set probably fits better
on the outside, since Stuckey is best utilized in the slot. Jet
coaches seem to agree, as Clowney was working with the first team in
early spring practices. If he improves his shaky hands to the point
at which they’re not a liability, he could become a low-catch but
big YPC guy, kind of like
Bernard Berrian. The Jets would take that. Based on his
experience in the league and his opportunity, he’s definitely
someone to watch this summer.
Laurent Robinson
(Stl, 75th pick overall) - This year, Robinson makes a
move from
Steve Smith
(NYG, 51st pick overall) - Smith seems like an obvious
pick for a breakout season, given that the Giants are young and thin
at WR and Smith is easily
Eli Manning's most experienced target at the position. But Smith
isn't exactly a glove-tight fit at one of the outside receiver
slots, so his best numbers might well come from the slot, which is
the exact same role he flourished in when veterans
Plaxico Burress and
Amani Toomer were
in town. Still, due to his experience in the offense, Giant OC
Kevin Gilbride recently
said he would be going with Smith and
Domenik Hixon as his two
starters if the season would start today. What’s troubling is that
Smith’s best two games reception-wise in 2008 (9 in Week Five and 7
in Week Three) came when Burress was on the field. Of course, that's
a small sample size, and Smith is in as good a position as any to
take the next step toward fantasy relevance in his third year. But
there are definitely questions, despite his promotion. Worst case
scenario, he eventually moves into the slot once top pick
Hakeem Nicks picks up
the offense, but he could still put up better numbers.
Chansi Stuckey
(NYJ, 235th pick overall) - Hopefully, by the time Week
One rolls around, everyone will be able to tell the difference
between Stuckey and David
Clowney without having to throw their names into Google. Both
guys will play, and Stuckey at least seems the safer pick to put up
numbers, since he actually has worthwhile NFL experience. He has
great hands (something Clowney lacks) and isn't afraid to go across
the middle. Catching 32/45 targets means he could even haul in
Brett Favre's
unnecessarily speedy lasers, which bodes well for young
Mark Sanchez, who throws
a softer ball that's easier to haul in. Ideally, Stuckey is a slot
receiver, and in that role he could have some real value in a PPR
league. Remember, he's slippery and can get open in traffic, which
means even though he lacks ideal size, he could be moved around and
utilized near the goal line. He was actually an effective red zone
target for Favre early last season.
Johnnie Lee Higgins
(Oak, 99th pick overall) - Higgins was picked for (what
else?) his speed, and to his credit, he's used that asset to his
advantage and has carved himself a pretty nice niche with the
Raiders as a flexible offensive option and dynamite kick returner.
Out of necessity, Higgins became a starting receiver for the Raiders
late last year and finished 2008 with a line of 22/366/4, with a
really nice 16.6 YPC. But Higgins doesn't have good hands and
doesn't run great routes, which means the Raiders were looking to
upgrade the position at all costs this off-season (they did, by
drafting Darrius Heyward-Bey
and Louis Murphy in
April). Still, since Higgins and
Chaz Schilens are more
experienced, they would, according to reports, still start if the
season began today. But it wouldn't be wise to expect that to be the
case in late August, since the Raiders want to get their youngsters
on the field as soon as possible. Higgins will still return kicks,
he'll still be valuable in tricky formations, and he'll still play
because he's a valuable deep and run-after-the-catch threat. A
"breakout" season is probably unrealistic, but if Heyward-Bey and/or
Murphy fails to make a move in training camp, Higgins could still be
in line for a lot of playing time, and with two years in the league,
he should be able to take a step forward.
Well, they are still third-year receivers
James Jones
(GB, 78th pick overall) - Jones was really impressive as
a rookie in 2007, making 47 catches for 676 yards, despite tailing
off at the end of the year. Unfortunately, that little tailspin
continued into 2008, when he couldn't beat out
Jordy Nelson for the
team's #3 WR spot, and he put up a line of just 20/274/1. Jones
battled a knee injury all of last season, which caused him to miss a
few games, and off-season surgery was even contemplated for the
knee. But Jones opted to pass on it, and despite not receiving the
surgery, he says he's 100% ready to go for training camp this year.
When healthy, Jones takes advantage of his good size with great
hands and a nice vertical-stretching ability. He's still the #4
receiver here, but Donald
Driver is getting old, and this is an offense that will throw
the ball a lot. He might not replicate his impressive rookie
campaign, but he's probably a good bet to improve on his
disappointing sophomore season if he gets the opportunity. But here
again, that’s the problem. The team loves Nelson and views him as
Driver’s replacement, so Jones will need some injuries if he’s to
eclipse his solid 2007 rookie numbers.
Jason Hill (SF,
76th pick overall) – Hill had a solid summer last year
and showed great improvement in
Mike Martz’ offense, and
he proceeded to make an impact during the season, putting up a
31/319/2 line last year. Hill did it in nine games, which is
somewhat impressive, but brings us to his biggest problem: staying
on the field. He’s had some injury issues, including a hamstring
problem this off-season. Hill isn't very big, but he has good speed
and can make some plays downfield. He is, however, a long shot to
make an impact this year. For one, QB
Shaun Hill doesn't have
a great arm. More important, Hill is pretty much buried on a WR
depth chart that includes
Michael Crabtree, Isaac
Bruce, Josh Morgan,
Brandon Jones,
and Arnaz Battle.
Hill did well with the time he had last year and delivered when
called upon, but he’ll have to battle for a roster spot. Despite
sitting out spring practices with that hamstring injury, however,
for what it’s worth, Hill might have an edge over
Dwayne
Jarrett (Car, 45th pick
overall) - Coming out of college, Jarrett was considered a big
possession receiver with the potential to be something of a
playmaker for a bigger target. But he's never been able to adjust
his game to the speed of the NFL because, among other things, he
lacks fluidity. It's obvious that he hasn't been able to get by with
just raw talent, as evidenced by his 16 catches with no scores over
his first two NFL seasons. But despite the lack of improvement in
the stat column, both Panther coach
John Fox and QB
Jake Delhomme have been
talking Jarrett up this off-season. Fox said Jarrett made strides
last year that didn't show up in the box score – he did make a
couple of key catches – and Delhomme thinks Jarrett can become a big
contributor to the Carolina offense. But there's no real, solid
evidence yet that Jarrett is going to become anywhere near a viable
fantasy option this season. But maybe, as is the case with receivers
sometimes, he'll get it in the third year. If veteran
Mushin Muhammad misses
time with an injury, Jarrett should be better-equipped to handle a
prominent role in Year Three.
Jacoby Jones (Hou, 73rd
pick overall) - Jones is one of those guys who’s hard to ignore
because of his speed and his good size (6'2"). But while Jones has
been a very good kick and punt returner so far in his young NFL
career, the fact that he hasn't been able to find his way onto the
field in one of the NFL's most explosive passing offenses does
present a lot of questions. Jones has a line of 18/230/0 as a
receiver in his career, and just 28 pass targets to go with it. But
to his credit, Jones acknowledges he needs to work on some things,
mentioning consistency, hands, and route running, specifically. He's
going to have to actually practice to get better at those things,
though, and he sat out a good deal of spring workouts with a
tailbone injury. Jones has a lot of raw talent, and this is a really
good offense, but he needs a lot of things to go in his favor if
he’s to have a chance. The team still has veteran
Andre Davis, who would
start if Andre Johnson
went down, and David
Anderson could fill in if
Kevin Walter is out.
Roy
Hall (Ind, 169th pick
overall) - In the wake of losing WR
Marvin Harrison, Colt QB
Peyton Manning offered
an open challenge to some of the young receivers on the Colt roster
to step up and make a play for the #3 job. Hall is the third-year
guy among that crew, which includes second-year man
Pierre Garcon and rookie
Austin Collie. Despite
the advantage in years, Hall doesn't have the experience of actually
producing (one catch for eight yards in his career). Hall is the
biggest of the three, with near-TE size (6'3", 240), but that also
means he doesn't fit the typical Colt #3 profile. He's going to have
to show something to separate himself. It should be pointed out that
the team has been intrigued by him since he joined the team in 2007,
so he’s at least someone to keep an eye on if there are injuries.
Legedu Naanee (SD, 172nd
pick overall) - Naanee has really good size (6'2", 225) and has
actually seen time at TE and FB because he's physical and athletic.
And his versatility is why he's almost a lock to make the
Syndric Steptoe (Cle, 234th
pick overall) - If awesome names were awarded fantasy points,
Steptoe would be a 1st-rounder. Unfortunately for him,
Steptoe is just another lightning-quick but incredibly small WR/KR
in the Dante Hall mold.
His biggest value to the Browns, outside of potentially returning
kicks, was when he was used as a
Joshua Cribbs-lite type
of player. Steptoe put up a line of 19/182/0 in his first season of
actual game action, but he contains little value now that the Browns
are deeper at WR this season after drafting some prospects this past
April. The door is still cracked open for him to make an impact,
though, thanks to the suspension of
Donte Stallworth.
Buster
Aundrae Allison (Min, 146th
pick overall) - Allison has value as an experienced return man, but
offensively he was unable to separate himself from the pack last
season, despite showing flashes as a rookie in ’07 and playing on a
team with pretty weak WRs. The unfortunate thing for Allison is that
the drafting of Percy Harvin
pushes him down both the WR and KR depth charts, making his
chances of securing a roster spot less likely. He's battling for the
final WR spot on the Viking roster, so even if
Brett Favre comes back,
Allison won't have much value.
Courtney Taylor (Sea, 197th
pick overall) - Taylor had a wonderful shot to impress in 2008 on a
roster decimated by injuries at WR, but he completely blew his shot
and ended up on the Seahawks' practice squad by the end of the
season. Taylor developed no chemistry with either
Matt Hasselbeck or
Seneca Wallace, and he
caught just nine of the 25 balls thrown his way (that's really bad).
Derek Stanley (Stl, 249th
pick overall) -
Paul
Williams (Ten, 80th pick
overall) - Williams has just one catch in two seasons with the
Titans, has had injury problems, and the signing of
Nate Washington plus the
drafting of Kenny Britt
don't exactly bode well for his future with the organization. If
Williams makes the team, it will probably be as the last WR on the
roster and will have been after an impressive camp in which he took
advantage of his decent size. But if Williams doesn’t come on strong
in this year’s training camp, he’s likely out of chances. Don't hold
your breath for this guy.
Ryne
Robinson (Car, 118th pick
overall) - Robinson has just four catches in his career, all as a
rookie in 2007, and he missed most of 2008 after being placed on IR
with a knee injury in early October. Robinson is pint-sized (5'8")
and is at absolute best the #4 receiver on the Panthers' depth chart
as of right now. But he has a very good shot of making the roster
because the latest from their OTAs has him leading the race to
become
Jordan Kent (Sea, 210th
pick overall) -
Yamon Figurs (Bal, 74th pick overall) - It's going to be hard to get a read on what value (if any) Figurs will have as a WR this season. He doesn't have great size and has just two catches in his NFL career, although one went for a 43-yard score last season. Figurs is valuable to the Ravens as a return man, and he has one KR TD and one PR TD in his career. Figurs will be playing from behind this season, as he is out until training camp after undergoing foot surgery. If healthy and on the team, he's a deep threat and not much else for QB Joe Flacco, but we’re told the team is down on him.
Chris Davis (Ten, 128th
pick overall) - Davis has just seven catches for 69 yards in two
seasons with the Titans, and he's probably battling
Paul Williams, among
others, for the final spot on the team's roster. But
Tight Ends
Already broken out but even more experience helps:
Greg
Olsen (Chi, 31st pick
overall) - Olsen might be the surest player to break out at the TE
position this year, and calling these type of things "sure" is
usually relatively risky. But the addition of QB
Jay Cutler means
incredible things for Olsen, who's shown flashes of being an elite
TE in his first two seasons but hasn't yet put together a complete
campaign. Reports indicate that Cutler is already beginning to favor
Olsen in workouts, and there are reasons for that. The biggest thing
about Olsen that we like is the fact that he moves like a WR despite
his great size, so he immediately becomes the best possession and
PPR threat on a team that's relatively young and uncertain at the WR
position. Although the new QB will obviously change things, the
Bears threw to their TEs 156 times in 2008, which was third in all
of football. And Cutler has a history of throwing to the TE even
with studs at the WR position (Tony
Scheffler, anyone?). Especially on a team with a lack of size at
wide receiver, Olsen should be extremely active, since he’s probably
the best option on the team when it comes to making tough, contested
catches in traffic, and throwing those types of passes happens to be
Cutler’s specialty. Olsen is also an excellent red zone receiver,
thanks to his size and athleticism. The only thing that might hold
Olsen back is the presence of
Desmond Clark, a good TE
in his own right. But Bear OC
Ron Turner said last
week that "we're seeing the evolution" of Olsen's ability heading
into his third season. Olsen could be the best breakout candidate in
this entire article.
Zach
Miller (Oak, 38th pick
overall) - Miller, despite lacking outstanding athleticism and size,
developed into the favorite target for QB
JaMarcus Russell in his
second season, and we don't see any reason to think he won't be on
pace to catch 60+ balls in the upcoming campaign with 32 pro starts
now under his belt. Miller surprised as a rookie when he caught 44
balls, but in Year Two he not only increased that total to 58, but
he raised his low YPC (10.1) to 13.9, one of the best totals among
all TEs, which was encouraging. The reason Miller wasn't a home run
in fantasy last year, though, was because he scored just 1 TD. To be
honest, we don't think that was Miller's fault as much as it's a
fault of the sterile Raider offense, in general. And conventional
wisdom suggests that if Miller is in the 55-65 catch range again
this year, it will be almost impossible for him to not score more
TDs. One thing to watch is how he recovers from off-season hernia
surgery, although he was worked slowly into practices, and he should
be fine for training camp. With two years in the league, he should
be ready to handle or continue to handle the prominent role he needs
to have on a team with such limited experience at the wideout
position.
Legit Breakout Candidates:
Brent Celek (Phi, 162nd
pick overall) - Celek has shown the ability to take over games,
despite some inconsistency on the field, and now he's the top dog in
Philadelphia with L.J. Smith
moved on to the Ravens. Celek really made a name for himself
when he caught 10 balls for 83 yards and 2 TDs in a losing effort in
the NFC Championship Game in January, after he had permanently
claimed the starting role late in the regular season when Smith
proved one final time that he couldn't be counted on. During the
regular season, Celek went for 27/318/1 in a primarily reserve role,
but he exploded for 131 yards in a single game at
Kevin Boss (NYG, 153rd
pick overall) - Boss was actually a disappointment to fantasy
players who were expecting big things out of him last year, but from
strictly a football standpoint, he solidified himself as an everyday
player the Giants will definitely use. Boss was a sleeper pick last
year after the Giants unloaded
Jeremy Shockey, but
while the red zone love was nice, he responded with a relatively
pedestrian 33/384 stat line to go along with his 6 TDs, good for
just 5.0 FPG. And it should definitely be noted that the addition of
rookie TE Travis Beckum,
a big guy who moves like a WR, could mean fewer looks for Boss, who
didn't improve his production at all when
Plaxico Burress missed
time last year. But the reason Boss is a viable fantasy back-up
threat is because he established himself, quite simply, as one of
the best blockers at the position. That means he's still the #1 TE
and he's still going to get on the field. Given the Giants'
willingness to throw him the ball in the red zone, owners could
certainly do worse than Boss as a bench option.
Have
a chance:
Derek Schouman (Buf, 222nd
pick overall) - The Bills are somewhat high on Schouman, and he has
shown flashes as a versatile player who can move around the line of
scrimmage. We initially thought Schouman might be a sleeper when the
Bills released Robert Royal,
given his decent 15/153/1 line in 2008, but the addition of rookie
TE Shawn Nelson means he
obviously isn't in the Bills' long-term plans as the guy, so his
fantasy value appears to be pretty limited. Where Schouman will be
useful will be as an H-back type, but those types of players
typically don't put up huge fantasy numbers despite being valuable
to the Bill offense on the field. Nelson is too talented not to
play, and Derek Fine is
a better blocker, so Schouman, as far as the TE position goes, could
be the odd man out. He'll play, but he won't have much value. Nelson
should be the guy.
Dante Rosario (Car, 155th
pick overall) - Rosario was a popular Waiver Wire pickup after his
impressive Week One game in 2008, in which he went for 7/96 and a
game-winning touchdown. Unfortunately for Rosario (and his owners),
he caught just 11 balls, with no scores the rest of the season. He's
an athletic and big TE with field-stretching ability, and frankly
the Panthers are pretty thin beyond
Steve Smith and
Muhsin Muhammad at WR.
But Rosario is still battling
Jeff King for playing
time, and the Panthers just don't throw to the TE often enough to
make either of them viable fantasy options until proven otherwise.
Muhammad once said that
Well, they are still third-year receivers
Ben
Patrick (Ari, 215th pick
overall) - Patrick has some quickness and solid hands, and he showed
flashes last year as a backup to
Leonard Pope, but
therein lies the issue. He's still the #2 TE on a team, not to
mention the fact that the Cards don’t throw to the TE. He’s also
been suspended for the first four games of the 2009 season for
violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. Patrick fessed up to
taking Adderall to stay awake on a long road trip, and at the least,
accepting the blame shows good character. But he's already behind in
a pretty bad situation for TE fantasy value.
Matt
Spaeth (Pit, 77th pick
overall) - Spaeth had a solid game or two when he filled in for
Heath Miller last season
when Miller struggled with injuries, and he probably has a future as
at least a second TE because of his phenomenal size (6'7", 270).
Spaeth didn't score on any of his 17 receptions in 2008, but as a
rookie, the Steelers used his size to their advantage at the goal
line, and three of his five catches went for TDs. With Miller still
around, Spaeth will mostly be used as that goal-line threat and as
an extra blocker for their relatively weak offensive line. He'll
play, but he's not a fantasy option at this point.
Second-Year Receivers
Wide Receivers
Already broken out but even more experience helps:
Eddie Royal (Den, 42nd
pick overall) – Royal’s superb 2008 rookie season may have been the
best we’ve seen from a Year One receiver since
Anquan Boldin’s amazing
debut in 2003. With WR
Brandon Marshall missing the first two games of the season,
Royal quickly became the go-to receiver for QB
Jay Cutler. His first
game, on Monday Night Football no less, was a spectacular 9/146/1
performance during the Broncos 41-14 thrashing of the Raiders in
DeSean Jackson (Phi, 49th pick) –
Jackson started training camp last season buried on the Eagles’
depth chart, and the early expectation was that he would be utilized
as a moveable chess piece – not their starter. But through stellar
preseason play in practice and in their preseason games, and due to
injuries to Kevin Curtis
and Reggie Brown,
Legit Breakout Candidates:
Donnie Avery (Stl, 33rd
pick overall) – Avery was the first receiver taken in the 2008
draft, and while it certainly wasn’t planned, thanks to
Torry Holt’s knee
problems, he found himself as something of a go-to guy by the time
the season ended. The team let Holt go, which was a function of his
age and health issues, but it was also a vote of confidence for
Avery, who now leads a young receiving corps in
Devin Thomas (Was, 34th
pick overall) – The Redskins drafted Thomas with the hope that he
and Malcolm Kelly would
be the future of the receiving corps. Unfortunately, they both
struggled with injuries last season, so opportunities were severely
limited. Thomas at least started to see the field later in the
season, averaging 3.2 pass targets per game in their final five
games. He even scored on a 29-yard TD run. There is absolutely no
doubt the Redskins would love to start Thomas this year. Then they
could move veteran Antwaan
Randle El to the slot, where he’s ideally suited to play. But to
do that, Thomas must prove he’s ready for the prominent role. Thomas
has ideal tools for the offense – size and speed – but he was
considered raw coming out of college, and his rookie season did
little to dispute that claim. However, QB
Jason Campbell has said
a lot of good things about Thomas’ route-running in the OTAs, and
the QB is also impressed with his overall awareness, so the light
may be coming on for him in Year Two. Ultimately, Thomas may need
another year of seasoning, but if he shows enough this summer, the
Redskins may still give him a chance to start on the outside. That
would be a play-to-win decision, and with jobs possibly on the line,
infusing some youth and juice into the lineup may be the prudent
thing to do. We also need to keep an eye on Kelly, who was
considered more NFL-ready than Thomas this time last year but who
had more injury woes. And finally, if Thomas doesn’t step up this
summer, it’s possible the team signs a veteran like
D.J. Hackett, which just
goes to show how much they need help and size in their starting
lineup.
Josh
Morgan (SF, 174th pick
overall) – Drafted 130+ picks after a guy like
James Hardy, a 2nd-round
pick of the Bills last year, Morgan looks like the 2008 draft’s best
value at the position, and the Niners will be the first to tell you
that. As he enters his second season, Morgan, despite the return of
Isaac Bruce and the
drafting of top pick Michael
Crabtree, is expected to compete for a starting job, and the
team believes he can become a top-flight receiver this year. He fell
ill and lost 15 pounds just before the 2008 season started after an
impressive preseason. Despite that unfortunate start to his season,
he finished with 20 catches for 319 yards and 3 TDs in 12 games.
Morgan may not be a stud talent, but he’s shown tremendous ability
and made some great catches last year, and the team has been very
high on him for over a year now. He spent most of his time last year
at split end, but he’s seen time this year at flanker, so he should
be able to start at either spot this year. That flexibility is a
key, since the team is looking to start its best two receivers, and
right now Morgan definitely looks like he’s one of them. So with a
year’s experience, if he continues to progress and proves impossible
to keep off the field, Morgan could have a breakout season, despite
the added competition and despite the 49ers having their deepest WRs
corps in a decade.
Have
a chance:
Chaz Schilens (Oak, 226th pick) - Schilens came on late last year as a potentially reliable target for JaMarcus Russell. He caught six passes and scored twice in the last two games alone, a good sign for his future potential as a possession receiver. Ideally, the Raiders would love to use Schilens as a guy to run intermediate routes, where his size (6'4") and leaping ability is put to use. Fortunately for both parties, Schilens has, so far, been extremely impressive in minicamps and is probably the #1 favorite on the roster to grab one of the two starting WR positions. The thing about Schilens is that he doesn't fit the Raiders' obsession with burning speed, which might actually work out in his favor because he can be used in different ways than Darrius Heyward-Bey or Johnnie Lee Higgins.
Earl Bennett
(Chi, 70th pick overall) – Bennett is being pegged as a
sleeper this season for a few reasons. He’s part of a very young and
unproven receiving corps in
Malcolm Kelly (Was, 51st pick
overall) – Kelly was taken just 17 picks after the ‘Skins grabbed
Devin Thomas early in
the second round last year (34th overall), as the team
was attempting to solidify its receiving corps by adding some size,
as well as some youth. He had a rough time last year, however,
thanks to a nagging knee injury that limited him to just five games
and only 3 receptions for 18 yards. The good news is that he made a
favorable impression when he practiced and played last year, more so
than Thomas most likely, and his size and physicality are certainly
needed in
Jordy Nelson (GB, 36th
pick overall) – Although he plays behind an excellent starting duo
of Greg Jennings and
Donald Driver, Nelson
has the chance to shine in 2009 on the pass-happy Packers. The
former
Limas Sweed (Pit, 53rd
pick overall) – Remember when Big Ben was pushing the Steelers to
get him a taller receiver? That was supposed to be Sweed. He ended
up playing in only 11 games and registered just six catches for 64
yards and was most remembered for his sure-TD drop in the AFC
Championship game or, on the brighter side, his vicious block on
Raven CB Corey Ivy in
the same game. What Sweed wants to be known as is the Steelers’ #3
WR this season. He finds himself in a battle for that spot with
rookie Mike Wallace and
veteran Shaun McDonald.
Sweed will need to set himself apart by using his unique combination
of size and speed. The one vote of confidence he did get from the
team was their willingness to let WR
Nate Washington go to
the Titans. The door is open for Sweed to succeed in 2009, but it
will be up to him to walk through it. The good news for Sweed is
that he has slowly but surely showed signs in the OTAs that he’s
starting to get comfortable, and his confidence level is up. That
bodes well for his chances at claiming that #3 role, and it’s
especially important if either
Hines Ward or
Santonio Holmes misses
time with an injury. If that’s the case, Sweed’s on-the-job training
in 2008 should help a lot.
Harry Douglas (Atl, 84th
pick overall) – With rookie QB
Matt Ryan leading the
team to the playoffs and WR
Roddy White and RB
Michael Turner earning their first Pro Bowl selections, it was
easy to overlook Douglas’ rookie season. It may not have gaudy
production, but it was pretty flashy, as he finished the season with
23/320 while scoring a receiving, rushing, and return TD. He’s
another guy who’ll benefit from playing in a young, high-powered
offense, and the addition of TE
Tony Gonzalez will only
give him more chance to get open. Of course, Gonzo’s presence should
mean fewer looks for
Keenan Burton (Stl, 128th
pick overall) –
Davone Bess (Mia, Undrafted) – Bess
was last year’s winner of the right-place-at-the-right-time award,
and he had one of the best rookie seasons ever for an undrafted
receiver. While he was primarily used as a return man early on, Bess
stepped up in the absence of
Greg Camarillo, who went down with a knee injury in Week Twelve.
Playing in 17 games and taking over the starting role for
Andre Caldwell (Cin, 97th
pick overall) –
Marcus Smith (Bal, 106th
pick overall) – Smith didn’t register any statistics in 2008,
despite playing in 10 games (including 3 in the playoffs) for the
Ravens. He is expected to battle for the #3 spot, and he was noted
for his big plays during a May minicamp where it appeared he and QB
Joe Flacco were
developing some nice chemistry. Obviously, Smith still has a lot to
prove, but with the position being thin as is, Smith has a chance to
see more time this season. We were very impressed with him seeing
him up close at Raven camp last summer, and he was one of their
better stories in camp last year. Like
Anquan Boldin, he’s big,
physical, is a great run-after-the-catch guy, and he runs good
routes. He should be better off with a year’s experience, so he’s
definitely someone to watch.
Well, they are still second-year receivers
Early Doucet (Ari, 81st
pick overall) – Doucet enters his second season as part of one of
the most explosive offenses in football. While he played in only
nine games, two of those came in the playoffs en route the
Cardinals’ run to the Super Bowl. He caught only 14 balls for 90
yards and no TDs, but considering he played behind three 1000-yard
receivers, he shouldn’t be too discouraged. Doucet’s a pretty good
player, and so far this off-season he appears to be much better off
with a year’s experience under his belt (he’s also healthy,
something he wasn’t in 2008). He saw a lot of extra playing time in
the OTAs while veteran
Anquan Boldin skipped out on voluntary workouts, and he
impressed with his ability to learn the offense, and his ability to
make tough catches. He was also able to establish some chemistry
with QB Kurt Warner.
Doucet projects best as a slot receiver, so if for some reason
Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald,
or Steve Breaston isn’t
on the field, don’t be surprised if he steps right in and offers a
significant contribution.
Jerome Simpson (Cin, 46th overall pick) - Simpson caught just one pass as a rookie, despite being one of the first receivers taken off the board, and reviews of his off-season progress have been mixed. In March, QB Carson Palmer praised Simpson for his effort and said it was evident the second-year receiver had "been working." But while he’s showcased his athleticism in the OTAs and has made some nice downfield catches, other reports suggest Simpson is still sluggish and unpolished as a route runner, and his average speed on top of that meant that DBs had no problem containing him. It looks like third-round pick Andre Caldwell has settled in past Simpson on the depth chart, and although it's still early, Simpson hasn't shown any reason to believe the light bulb will turn on this year.
Mario Manningham
(NYG, 95th pick overall) – Manningham didn’t do much last
year, despite the team desperately needing production of out the WR
position after Plaxico
Burress became a non-factor down the stretch. He appeared in
just seven games, including the last five of the regular season, but
he finished with only 4 catches for 26 yards. With Burress now gone
for good, the Giant WR corps is a collection of
young, unproven players that
really doesn’t have a #1 at the present time. The coaching staff
believes Manningham can play anywhere on the field, which makes him
a valuable backup for a team that lacks versatility at receiver. He
also practiced as a punt returner, so if nothing else, he should see
time there. With no clear-cut starters, Manningham could make some
waves if he makes the most of his time on the field, and having a
year under his belt can only help him. Don’t expect much from him,
however, since he appears to be nothing more than a rotational
receiver in the NFL. He’s a long-strider and a poor route-runner,
and he doesn’t always compete to the fullest.
James Hardy (Buf, 41st
pick overall) – Hardy had a pretty quiet rookie season that was
ended by an ACL injury in Week Fifteen. His recovery continues, and
he expects to be ready to play in preseason games. Before his
injury, Hardy played in fourteen games for the Bills, catching 9
balls for 87 yards and 2 TDS. He’ll enter his second season with
little to get excited about, thanks to the arrival of WR
Terrell Owens. Say what
you will about Owens’ attitude, but he is a professional when it
comes to the receiving fundamentals. Hardy will only benefit from
playing with and learning from a future Hall-of-Famer in Owens.
Hardy could certainly find himself as a somewhat-active red zone
target for QB Trent Edwards
because he possesses good size (6’5”, 212), but we’ve been down on
this guy from Day One, and he proved us correct in 2008. He lacks
optimal playing speed, his route-running is poor, and he fails to
embrace the physical aspect of the game. Basically, we think he’s a
bum.
Steve Johnson (Buf, 224th
pick overall) – Johnson has almost no chance to settle in as
anything better than the #5 WR spot on the Bills, and that isn’t a
knock on him. Johnson just happens to play for a team that added
Terrell Owens in the
off-season and already had a great #2 in
Lee Evans, as well as a
pair of good slot receivers. However, as a 7th-round pick
in 2008, Johnson did everything he could with the opportunities he
was given last year. He finished with 10 catches for 102 yards and 2
TDs, which came in only 11 games. He has found himself this
off-season starting in three-WR sets, thanks to the absence of
Josh Reed and
Roscoe Parrish, and he
continue to impress with his performance so far. Johnson realize
that he will have to do a lot to impress, considering his position
on the team, but if he continues to improve, there is a chance we
hear his name called more often as the season goes on, especially if
Owens gets hurt.
Dexter Jackson
(TB, 58th pick overall) – Jackson has a lot to prove after many – including the man who drafted him, former HC Jon Gruden – said he may have been a reach in the 2nd round last year.
Lavelle Hawkins (Ten, 126th
pick overall) – Hawkins was a highly touted receiver coming out of
Isaiah
Stanback
(Dal, 103rd overall pick) - Stanback is one of those guys
who is battling for playing time (and a roster spot) in training
camp, but he might be able to sneak himself onto the roster because
of his versatility. Stanback has just two catches in his NFL career,
but he has also returned kicks. But the thing that is going to make
him most valuable to the Cowboys or any other potential suitors is
the fact that he played QB in college at
Pierre Garcon (
William Franklin (Oak, 105th
pick overall) –
Paul
Hubbard
(Cle, 191st pick) - Hubbard has excellent size (6'2", 225) and is a
great athlete, but "raw" wouldn't even begin to describe him. In
other words, if he were a steak, he'd still be breathing. He spent
the entire year on the
John Broussard (Chi, 229th
pick) - Broussard hasn't seen the field since garnering 4/126/1 in
eight games during his rookie season with the Jaguars in 2007.
Broussard has great speed and decent size for that speed (6'1"), but
he just hasn't been able to put the total package together. The Jags
released him after training camp last year, and in October, the
Giants cut him from their practice squad. He finished the season on
the Bears' practice squad, where he now remains, trying to snag one
of the final spots on the roster. But he could get lost in another
numbers game.
Arman Shields (Oak, 125th
pick overall) – Shields missed the 2008 season with a knee injury
that continues to sideline him through the off-season. The Raiders
drafted him being of his speed, which included the second-best
40-yard dash at the Combine. He is not a lock to make the team, but
his speed should be a valuable asset if he did.
Kenneth Moore (Car, 136th
pick overall) – Moore was originally drafted by the Lions last year
and assigned to their practice squad, but he signed by the Panthers
in October. A hamstring injury limited him for most of the season,
and he would end up on the injured reserve. He returns this season
in the running for a roster spot, and he can contribute both as a WR
and KR. The Panthers are another team that is short at the WR
position, so
Adrian
Arrington
(NO, 237th pick) - Arrington's a tall and lanky receiver who spent
his entire rookie season on injured reserve with a toe injury. He's
going to be battling to make the
Mario Urrutia (NYJ, 246th
pick) - Urrutia failed to make an impact with the Bengals and was
cut on June 20. But he's got TE size (6'6", 242), so he was
attractive to the Jets, who signed him this week.
Jaymar Johnson (Min, 193rd
pick overall) – After spending most of 2008 on the practice squad,
Johnson returns in 2009 with a legit chance to make the roster as
the final WR. He has also worked as a KR, which boosts his value to
the team. Johnson put on 17 pounds in the off-season, and HC
Brad Childress has taken
notice, even going as far as calling Johnson the hardest worker on
the team. With a player being that motivated and it being noticed,
Johnson is looking like he may find his way onto the Viking roster.
Tight Ends
Already broken out but even more
experience helps:
John Carlson
(Sea, 38th pick overall) – Carlson may not be a household
name, but you sure did appreciate the fine rookie season he had if
he was on your roster. His 55/627/4 would be considered good for any
TE, but considering he played on a bad team with an unstable QB
situation, and that it was his rookie year, it look that much
better. Carlson is a complete TE in that he can catch, block, and
play every down. This year, his team looks a bit better on offense
with the return of a healthy QB
Matt Hasselbeck along
with the addition of WR T.J.
Houshmandzadeh. The team’s RBs are still iffy receiving options
at best, so Carlson should continue to command the ball. Carlson has
already settled in as a vital cog in this passing game, so the
experienced gained in 2008 should help him handle the extra
attention he’ll receiver and prevent a sophomore slump.
Legit Breakout Candidates:
Dustin Keller (NYJ, 32nd
pick overall) – While many thought the Jets were crazy for trading
up to get a player they probably could have gotten without moving up
in the draft, they ended up looking smart for making sure they got
their guy, since Keller was worth the price. It did take Keller some
time to get going in his rookie season, but that was understandable,
since he had to compete for time with TEs
Bubba Frank and
Chris Baker. He ended up
playing in all 16 games (starting six time), and finished with
48/535/3. Now, Keller finds himself at the top of the depth chart,
and on a team in transition. Thanks to a questionable receiving
corps and a QB situation that will involve an unproven guy in either
Mark Sanchez or
Kellen Clemens, Keller
could become the most important pass-catcher on the team, so the
year of experience gained in 2008 is key. Keller looks like a WR
playing the TE position, so while he’s not known for his blocking,
it wouldn’t be that surprising to see him lead the team in receiving
this season.
Brad
Cottam (KC, 76th pick
overall) – As TE Tony
Gonzalez’s backup last season, Cottam played in all 16 games
(starting seven times) and finished with just 7 catches for 63
yards. Now that Gonzalez is gone, Cottam is fully expected to be the
starter when the season rolls around. He’s a very large individual
at 6’7”, 270, who can block and be a downfield threat. The team is
thin at the WR position, so with a new QB in
Matt Cassel, Cottam
could find himself seeing a lot of targets, especially in the red
zone with his size. HC Todd
Haley will obviously run a pass-heavy offense, and even though
Cottam is still young and unproven, the team really needs him to
step up. It’s early, but he unfortunately hasn’t done that in the
OTAs. He’s dropped too many passes, and as the team enters training
camp, he will not be entrenched as the starter. That’s unfortunate,
and he needs to turn things around quickly in August.
Have
a chance:
Jermichael Finley (GB, 91st
pick overall) – Finley became very well known on the Packers in his
rookie season. Unfortunately, it was for his mouth. Whether he was
calling out QB Aaron Rodgers
for not throwing him the ball or questioning the coaching staff
for how they used him, Finley did not endear himself to anyone. He
has promised to let his play do the talking for him this year after
finishing 2008 with 6/74/1. Finley admitted that he did not know the
playbook as well as he should have, and that made him slow down
during plays. In an effort to change that, he’s been meeting with TE
coach Bob McAdoo after
each OTA to go over film. At 6’5”, 247, Finley has the size to be a
good TE, but he is also the best athlete at the position on the
Packers. If Finley can play as well this year as he ran his mouth
last year, he might just become a productive player in this league.
Based on his positive off-season, the team is optimistic, and he may
even be a sleeper in 2009.
Martellus Bennett (Dal, 61st
pick overall) – Bennett became better known for his off-field antics
than his on-field production, particularly the ribbing he took on
HBO’s Hard Knocks last summer. Of course, when you play with
arguably the best TE in the league in
Jason Witten, it is easy
to get overshadowed. Bennett actually had an admirable rookie
season, finishing with 20/283/4 in sixteen games and seven starts.
With Witten not going anywhere anytime soon, Bennett was drafted to
give the team another weapon on offense, so Bennett saw the field in
2 TE-sets that would let him exploit matchup problems with his 6’6”,
265-pound body. While it took some time, Bennett did pick up the
offense and worked a lot on technique with
Martin Rucker (Cle, 111th
pick overall) – Rucker’s rookie season was pretty forgettable. He
was the backup to TE Kellen
Winslow, played in only five games, and caught just two balls.
Now, Winslow is gone, and Rucker finds himself in the middle of an
unstable TE situation in Cleveland. The team signed former Bill TE
Robert Royal, and they
already have Steve Heiden,
who is coming off a torn ACL/sprained MCL. Rucker is not the
complete player those guys are because he’s not a great blocker, but
he’s the most athletic. While at
Well, they are still second-year receivers
Derek Fine (Buf, 132nd
pick overall) – The Bills have a bit of a mess at TE, and Fine is
right in the middle of it. Fine is the best blocker of the group,
teammate Derek Schouman
is more of an H-back who can play anywhere, and rookie
Shawn Nelson is easily
the best receiver of them all. Fine finished 2008 with 10/94/1 in
just 10 games as the #3 TE behind Schouman and
Robert Royal. He is
expected to continue his role as a blocker, and he probably won’t
have much value from a fantasy standpoint, considering the situation
he’s currently in.
Jacob
Tamme
(Ind, 127th pick) – After an impressive rookie preseason,
Tamme's 2008 season was a buzz kill, but it’s too early to write him
off. He had some injury issues, but early in the year, he was ahead
of Santi as the #2 TE for the team. He’s a good receiver who
understands the passing game, knows how to get
open, and reminds us of former Colt backup
Ben Utecht, based on his
size and receiving prowess.
He caught only three passes as a rookie in 2008, and his fantasy
value and potential is limited because
Dallas Clark is one of
the most prolific TEs in the business. But Tamme should make the
roster because he’s talented, probably more so than Santi.
Tom
Santi (Ind, 196th pick
overall) – Santi may not be much of a factor in the Colt offense
because he is at best the backup to
Dallas Clark, but he was
part of one of their best games of 2008. Santi caught the
game-winning TD (the first of his career) in the Colts’ amazing
31-27 comeback against the Texans in Week Five. He finished with
10/64/1 in just 6 games and ended up on the injured reserve after
suffering a shoulder injury in Week Eleven. He’s viable, but we like
Tamme better. We’ll see who emerges between the two as the clear #2.
Fred
Davis (Was, 48th pick
overall) – The Redskins were not exactly pleased with the effort put
out by
Gary
Barnidge (Car, 141st pick
overall) – Barnidge did not register a catch in his rookie season,
but that does not mean he’s an afterthought for 2009. In fact, with
such a bad TE group, Barnidge could find himself making significant
contributions to the Panthers as a pass-catching TE, which is
something they have lacked in recent years. Yes, they have
Jeff King back as a
starter and Dante Rosario
returns after finishing up strong last season, but Barnidge can
stretch the field better than both. After playing in 14 games last
year, mostly on special teams, he says he feels more comfortable in
the offense and is willing to do whatever the team asks. Barnidge
may not get a lot of opportunities, at least not right away, because
of his place on the depth chart, but he could still be an intriguing
player to watch in 2009.
Craig Stevens (Ten, 85th
pick overall) – Stevens was taken by the Titans at the end of the 3rd
round in 2008 as a replacement for TE
Ben Hartsock. He was
primarily used a blocker, although he does have good hands, despite
catching only one pass all season. Stevens did play in all 17 games,
including the playoffs, and he has definitely found his spot on the
team. With pass-catching TEs like
Bo Scaife,
Alge Crumpler, and
rookie Jared Cook on the
team, it appears that Stevens will be primarily considered a
blocking TE.
Kellen Davis (Chi, 158th
pick overall) –