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2009 Sample Article
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2008 Pre-Draft Rookie Report
Player
Analysis by Tony Pauline (TFYDraft.com)
Fantasy Analysis by John Hansen
Published, 3/31/09
Not to be a buzz kill or anything, but it’s best to start off our 2009 NFL rookie coverage by saying it’s going to be impossible for this year’s class to match 2008’s group in terms of NFL success and fantasy production. It’s not going to happen, so don’t even think about seeing a pair of rookie QBs excel and lead their teams into the playoffs, and we can probably forget about seeing 6-7 rookie runners making a significant fantasy splash, as was the case in ‘08.
But this year’s class is far from worthless. The WR class may not be littered with studs, but it’s definitely better than last year’s and features more potential NFL #1 targets. It’s a deep class, too, so the wide receiver position in the NFL will be reshuffled, and the landscape will change, casting aside, likely forever, many players who have hung in the league but are marginal players, at best. It’s also a good group of TEs, so overall this year’s draft class is good enough to create more than enough excitement for fantasy. At the all-important RB position, while it will be impossible for this year’s group to match last year’s class in terms of production and fantasy relevance, it is an above-average group, if not a good one. The one issue at this early stage is that the RB crop appears to have several quality backs, but many of them may not have what it takes to be true lead backs, thus creating more RBBCs in the league. But we’ve seen worse RB groups in the past, for sure.
As we do each year, it’s fun to stack these players up based solely on their talents and potential to be impactful players in the NFL before the draft. Sometimes, we fantasy players formulate opinions on players that are based too much on their situations on their first NFL team and ignore a player’s talents or shortcomings. For example, if you wrote off RB Matt Forte last year because you thought his seemingly poor situation in Chicago was too much for him to overcome, you missed out on drafting a player who was good enough to excel on any team. So it’s healthy to break these players down before we know their first address in the National Football League.
We’ll be back after the draft to re-rank and re-analyze these players, but here’s how we see them stacking up now.
Quarterbacks
1. Matthew Stafford
School: Georgia I Ht: 6-2.5 I Wt: 225 I 40: 4.89 I Year: 3Jr
Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-conference honors as a senior after passing numbers of 61.1%/3,209/22/9. Sophomore totals included 55.7%/2,523 /19/10.
Positives: Strong-armed passer with a gunslingers mentality. Patient in the pocket, displays terrific poise, and always in control. Buys time for receivers, moves around behind the line of scrimmage to give himself a better view of the field, and remains calm as the pocket collapses around him. Senses pressure, displays the ability to elude the rush, and does a nice job protecting the ball. Possesses a great sense of knowing what's happening on the field, and shows a lot of toughness to his game. Stands in the pocket and takes the big hit in order to get the throw away. Quickly sets up in the pocket and throws with an over-the-top delivery. Zips the pass into receivers, and gets the ball through the tight spots. Does a good job with his defensive reads, recognizing blitzes and then quickly finding hot receiver. Natural looking off the safety. Powers the ball downfield and drives long passes. Consistently challenges the vertical game. Flashes brilliant pass placement, hitting receivers as they leave their breaks, and putting the reception where only his man can make the catch. Quick thinker on his feet, and displays the ability to improvise when plays breakdown.
Negatives: Puts the deep ball into double coverage on occasion. Lacks classic height for a pocket passer or franchise quarterback.
Final Analysis: Stafford is a skilled quarterback who can take over games when he hits on all cylinders. He possesses the arm strength, mental intangibles, and accuracy to lead a franchise for years to come at the next level. Stafford is also a tough passer who leads by example. He is not a quarterback for everyone, as his smallish frame will knock him off the draft boards of certain teams, yet in time, Stafford will be a very good quarterback at the next level.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: If you’re looking for a long-term prospect at this position, Stafford is the guy this year, and it’s not even close. He’ll probably struggle a little early in the NFL if he’s pressed into action right away, but most great NFL QBs do. Other than the fact that his footwork needs improvement, he has everything you want to see in a QB prospect. He has an outstanding arm, is consistently accurate, his timing and anticipation is good, and he’s surprisingly athletic and can move and throw on the run. He played behind a poor O-line in college, yet he showed he can stand in pocket and look down the gun barrel with bodies around him, which is a good sign. He has all the necessary throwing tools to be a very NFL QB and there are no passing limitations with him. A poised and vocal leader, he’s been coached well, can play in any system, and the game situation doesn’t affect him. He’s the guy at the QB position this year, for sure, and the Lions would be crazy to pass on this franchise QB with the #1 overall pick.
Interesting Nugget(s): Before he even started a game in college, Mel Kiper Jr. predicted Stafford would be the #1 pick when he entered the draft. A supposed phenomenon known as “The Stafford Effect” showed that from 2006-2008, the years Stafford attended University of Georgia, there was a staggering rise in applicants to Georgia from Stafford’s high school, Highland Park High School in Dallas, Texas, which went from 35 in 2005 to 106 in 2008.
2. Mark Sanchez
School: USC I Ht: 6-2 I Wt: 227 I 40: 4.95 I Year: 4Jr
Bio: All-Conference selection as a senior, when he became the Trojans starting signal caller and posted numbers of 65.8%/3,207/34/10. Sophomore totals included 60.5%/695/7/5 when he started three games and served as a backup to John David Booty.
Positives: Poised, instinctive quarterback with a terrific head for the position. Quickly sets up in the pocket, sells the ball fakes, and natural looking off the safety. Senses pressure, displays good pocket awareness, and has a nice feel for what's happening on the field. Remains poised as the pocket collapses around him, and moves around the backfield, buying time for receivers. Recognizes blitzes and immediately finds the open wideout. Keeps his eyes downfield, rolling outside the pocket, loses little throwing on the run, and is accurate. Does a terrific job reading defenses and finding the open holes in the coverage. Makes proper decisions, and will look away from covered receivers and then go to secondary targets. Shows terrific accuracy and pass placement in the short and intermediate field. Always in command of the situation, and keeps the offense moving down the field. Stands in the pocket and takes a hit in order to get the ball away. Uses all his receivers, displays a sense of timing, and has the ball to pass catchers as they are leaving breaks.
Negatives: Struggles getting the ball downfield, and cannot drive deep passes. The farther out to the flanks or down the field he throws the ball, the less accurate he is. Does not always throw tight spirals.
Final Analysis: Sanchez did a tremendous job as a junior, his first year under center full-time for USC. He's a cerebral quarterback with great intangibles, and he possesses the ability to lead an offense on the NFL level. Sanchez will be best in a timing offense that plays to his strengths of accuracy and timing in the underneath coverage.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: As Tony mentions above, Sanchez probably needs to be in the right system, perhaps a West Coast system with a lot of three- and five-step drops in the passing game, with shorter and intermediate routes. I understand Sanchez has the tools and the talent to develop into a solid starter, but he’s limited as a passer, and it’s a concern how he needs functional space in the pocket to be effective, plus when he needs to move, his (better than average, but not great) arm strength decreases. He probably won’t have a ton of success if he’s needed to carry his team, so he needs to be in a multi-dimensional offense that has a lot of balance. He has decent size, but he plays a little smaller than he really is. Of course, his biggest obstacle right now is his lack of experience, having started only one full season at USC. Almost every underclassmen at this position struggles out of the gate, so don’t expect Sanchez to do much if he plays this year. Long-term, he should be considered the second-best prospect at this position, but while he definitely has the potential to, it’s not a lock that he develops into a quality starter. Most likely, he’ll eventually be solid, but he doesn’t look like a player who has the potential to be special, like Stafford this year or Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan last year. Sanchez will likely be drafted by the 49ers, Rams, Jets, Seahawks, Lions, or Jaguars, with the Redskin being a dark horse.
Interesting Nugget(s): Sanchez is a third-generation Mexican-American who leaves USC after starting just 16 games in his short college career. The choice of USC came down to the idea of following in Carson Palmer’s footsteps, a player whom he idolized growing up, and being able to stay close to home. Early in his USC career, Sanchez wore a mouthpiece featuring the colors of the Mexican flag, which caused some uproar among detractors who believed he was trying to symbolize radical activism. He would stop wearing the mouthpiece as a way to distance himself from the surprising controversy.
3. Josh Freeman
School: Kansas State I Ht: 6-5.5 I Wt: 248 I 40: 4.95 I Year: 3Jr
Bio: Three-year starter who passed for 58.6%/2,945/20/8 as a junior after 63.3%/ 2,353/18/11 as a sophomore.
Positives: Big, strong signal caller with the physical skills to play in the NFL. Patient in the pocket, stands strong against the rush, and displays great stature. Takes the big hit in order to get the ball away, loses nothing throwing on the move, and easily drives the passes. Zips the outs, powers the ball through the tight spots, and quickly gets the pass into receivers’ hands. Throws some beautiful deep passes, hitting receivers right on the money. Scans the field going through receiver progressions, and finds the open wideout. Tough to bring down in the pocket. Flashes the ability to hit receivers as they leave their breaks, and places passes where only his target can make the reception.
Negatives: Inconsistent in his all-around game. Looks away from covered receivers, and takes the safe underneath outlet, yet he does not do enough of it. Scatters passes, inconsistent with his accuracy, and misses wide-open targets. Does not do a good job moving the chains for the offense. Does not consistently step into throws, which affects his accuracy.
Final Analysis: Freeman possesses the physical skills to play at the next level, and he has flashed brilliance, but for the most part, he is a work in progress who needs to develop a complete game before being NFL-ready. His pass placement, decision-making, and defensive reads all need a lot of work, and Freeman is very much a hit-or-miss quarterback prospect. He offers great upside for a team willing to be patient in helping him develop his game.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: This guy has tremendous tools. He’s big and physical with a strong arm, and he can make every throw. But he’s raw and unrefined, and he doesn’t have very good footwork. Although he’s an effortless thrower, he’s an arm thrower who doesn’t drive through throws, and the ball doesn’t come out very well. He needs to work on his identification and recognition skills, and he does not show good enough timing and anticipation. That’s a concern because, while that issue can be coached up, that’s also a deficiency that may never go away. He has more NFL attributes than Sanchez, but he’s not as refined. He can be more than an average starter if he can clear up some of his issues, like processing information, throwing with timing, and his progression reading. As a frame of reference, he has some Ben Roethlisberger in him in that he’s a big and physical player who can move around and throw on the run and can make every throw, but he’s not exactly a precision QB. In short, he has the physical tools to be a very good player, but he has some key issues to work out.
Interesting Nugget(s): Freeman’s father, Ron, was the defensive coordinator on his high school team, and also played professionally in the USFL. Freeman was one the top performers in both the vertical and broad jump at the 2009 Scouting Combine.
4. Brian Hoyer
School: Michigan State I Ht: 6-2 I Wt: 215 I 40: 4.93 I Year: 5Sr
Bio: Two-year starter who totaled 51%/2,404/9/9 as a senior after 59.3%/2,725/20/11 as a junior.
Positives: Strong-armed passer with the physical tools to play at the next level. Patient in the pocket, stands against the rush, and possesses a quick release, immediately getting the ball out of his hand. Makes good decisions as the pocket collapses around him, throws with a fluid over-the-top delivery, and can make all the throws. Zips the outs, throws a nice deep pass, putting air under the ball, and let receivers run to the pass. Puts touch on throws when necessary. Loses no velocity throwing on the move. Displays good field vision, and has a nice sense of where his receivers are on the field.
Negatives: Must improve his accuracy, pass placement, and mechanics. Takes a while to set up in the pocket, does not consistently throw with proper footwork, and usually high of the mark. Not an elusive passer who can avoid the rush.
Final Analysis: Since taking over as the starting quarterback at Michigan State as a junior, Hoyer has done a fine job leading the team. He possesses the arm strength to play at the next level, yet he must improve his mechanics.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: It’s a really bad draft class at this position after the top three guys, and we feel the need to put Hoyer up this high simply because we don’t see prospect like Nate Davis, Graham Harrell, and Rhett Bomar as having a chance to ever start in the NFL. Hoyer is a smaller QB with limited arm strength and some technique issues. But he’s smart and knows how to play the position, so there is a place for him in the NFL. Some scouts we respect refer to him as a poor man’s Mark Sanchez.
Interesting Nugget(s): Hoyer was an IF, OF, and P for Saint Ignatius High School baseball team, which included the 2002 season, where he finished with a 8-1 record, 1.99 ERA, and helped his team win the Division I State Championship.
5. Stephen McGee
School: Texas A&M I Pos: QB I Ht: 6-3 I Wt: 225 I 40: 4.62 I Year: 5Sr
Bio: Three-year starter who struggled through an injury-plagued senior campaign and finished the season throwing for 65.9%/586/2/2. Junior totals included 58%/2,311/12/8, when he also added 899-yards rushing.
Positives: Athletic signal caller with a good head for the position. Patient in the pocket, buys time for receivers, and effectively identifies the open pass catcher. Remains poised as the pocket collapses around him, senses pressure, and steps up to avoid it. Stands in and takes a hit in order to get the throw away. Zips the outs, and nicely hits receivers as they are leaving their breaks. Possesses a sense of timing, displays good overall awareness, and has above-average arm strength.
Negatives: Played primarily in a run option system until his senior season. Tends to spray passes around the field. Stands to improve his overall throwing fundamentals.
Final Analysis: McGee is a prospect with a good amount of upside potential, and his best playing days are ahead of him. He possesses the size and arm strength to make an NFL roster, yet he needs to complete his game and improve his mechanics.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: In some ways, this is a shot-in-the-dark inclusion in a bad QB class. Tony likes him, and as you can see, he has tools to work with. McGee isn’t considered to be even in the third or fourth tier at this position by most other experts, but we’re not enamored with any of those lower-end guys, anyway, so we’ve slipped him into our top-5 for now. But unless he goes higher than expected and lands in an ideal situation, you can’t consider him a viable fantasy option, even in a dynasty league. In fact, if he’s even drafted, that will be validation that he should be considered a top-5 prospect in this poor QB class.
Interesting Nugget(s): McGee went to Class 3A Burnet High School in Burnet, Texas, where in addition to football, he also participated in basketball and track and field, earning all-district honors in both. His dream job is to become a professional deer hunter.
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Running Backs
1. Donald Brown
School: Connecticut I Ht: 5-10.5 Wt: 211 I 40: 4.50 I Year: 4Jr
Bio: Named 2008 Big East Offensive Player of the Year after posting career numbers of 367/2,187/18 on the ground and 21/125 as a pass catcher. Junior rushing totals included 170/821/8 with 14 receptions for 85 yards. Initially awarded all-Conference honors as a freshman when he posted 161/896/7 on the ground.
Positives: Well-rounded ball carrier with a versatile game. Displays outstanding vision, ball carrying instincts, and patience. Waits for blocks to develop, immediately finds the running lanes, and displays terrific open field running skills. Creates his own yardage, makes defenders miss, and displays terrific footwork with the ability to sidestep or avoid piles. Runs with a compact style, outstanding balance, body control, and is tough to knock off his feet. Flashes power on the inside with the ability to breaks several tackles and pick up yardage off initial contact. Effectively uses a straight arm to keep plays alive, and shows the ability to pick up the tough yardage. Easily turns the corner, cuts back against the grain, and loses little momentum when he must immediately alter his running angle. Solid pass catcher out of the backfield.
Negatives: Never really carried the load until his junior season. May not have the size or ability to be used as a short yardage runner in the NFL.
Final Analysis: Brown has been very productive in college, showing steady progress and an all-around game. He can be used in a variety of systems at the next level, and his versatility makes it difficult to characterize him as a specific type of ball carrier. He may start his career as a rotational running back, yet he could quickly grow into a team’s primary ball carrier.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: We’re big on running backs with lateral agility, the ability to make unblocked defenders miss, and explosiveness, and like Matt Forte before him, Brown has those things. He may even be a little more explosive than Forte. He has very good agility in a confined space, can create space, he’s very patient, and he’s decisive. He’s very smooth, and there is an economy of movement with him, as he makes it look easy. He’s the most consistent and complete back in this draft class, but there are concerns about his lack of ideal size. Since he’s a little thin, you do have concerns about his ability to hold up in the NFL, and also whether or not the team that drafts him will view him as a lead back. It’s a fair criticism, and while he did play through a number of injuries in college, he did have some bump and bruises. But he’s a professional runner who knows how to run and has a great feel for the position. He’s also a very good receiver who makes things happen in open space. He will either start right away or have a significant role in a committee. He would also be a very good fit for the Eagles, and he’s been linked to them as well as NE, Cin, and Ari.
Interesting Nugget(s): Brown’s 2,000+ yard season led the nation, and if he replicates the rookie season of similarly unknown Kevin Smith, who topped the nation’s ground totals in 2007, he’d be in pretty good company.
2. Knowshon Moreno
School: Georgia I Ht: 5-10.5 I Wt: 217 I 40: 4.59 Year: 3So
Bio: All-Conference and All-America selection last season after totaling 250/1,400/16 on the ground and adding 33/392/2 as a pass catcher. Started six games as a red shirt freshman, and produced rushing totals of 248/1,334/14 with 20/253 as a pass catcher. Originally awarded all-Conference honors in 2007.
Positives: Well-built running back with the skills and ability to be a featured ball carrier in the NFL. Patient, waits for blocks to develop, and finds the running lanes. Weaves his way on the inside, picking and choosing his spots and then gaining positive yardage. Finds the cutback lanes, quickly gets through them and runs underneath his pads. Uses an effective straight arm to keep the play alive, and powerful in his lower body. Runs with authority, doles out punishment, and falls forward when tackled. Rarely brought down by the first defender, and consistently runs north south, moving the chains. Flashes the ability to make defenders miss in a small area or bounce around piles. Terrific receiver out of the backfield who comes back to the ball and extends his hands to make the reception away from his frame. Picks up blocking assignments, squares into defenders, and protects his quarterback.
Negatives: Overall, not a very creative back. Lacks the outside speed to beat defenders around the corner. Ran poorly at the combine.
Final Analysis: Moreno is a terrific ball carrier who produces as a runner, pass catcher, and blocker. He offers a good amount of upside for the next level, and he should quickly break into a starting lineup and then eventually develop into a top back for the team that drafts him.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: I definitely like Moreno a lot, but he’s not perfect. Then again, who is? He does not have a lot of speed to the outside, and he’s a little mechanical and herky-jerky. He’s a between-the-tackles type who is tough, feisty, and will go after you, yet he’s not very powerful. But he’s a really good “football player” who does play bigger than he is, and he has a never-say-die attitude that shows up in every facet of his game. He’s a contact runner, à la Marion Barber, so the question is, since he’s not a big man, can he hold up? Durability was not an issue in college, at least. As a runner, he has a lot of desirable attributes, such as really good quickness, balance, agility, and vision, which enable him to run well in tight quarters. He does have elusiveness and the ability to make people miss. He’s also a very good receiver, which will definitely help him a lot for fantasy. He’s considered a really good blocker, which should help him get on the field in passing situations right away. Where Moreno goes will be a huge key to his fantasy value. He’s not a true featured back for a run-oriented offense such as Atlanta’s. However, he could be a lead back in a pass-first offense, such as Indianapolis’. He’s been linked to the Chargers, but given his skills and the nature of their offense, I’d love to see him go to the Eagles as the replacement for Brian Westbrook. That would be an ideal fit in many ways.
Interesting Nugget(s): Moreno has reportedly expressed an interest in playing for the Jets in his home state of New Jersey. The Jets pick 17th, which certainly wouldn’t be a reach for a back of Moreno’s ability.
3. Chris Wells
School: Ohio State I Ht: 6-1 I Wt: 237 I 40: 4.52 I Year: 3Jr
Bio: Two-year starter awarded all-Conference honors since his sophomore campaign. Missed three games last season with an ankle injury, and finished the year with ground totals of 207/1,197/8. Sophomore totals included 274/1,609/15 on the ground when he averaged 5.9 yards per carry. Freshman numbers included 104/576/7 carrying the ball, with an average of 5.5 yards per attempt. Combined for 13 receptions the past three years.
Positives: Strong, punishing runner best on the inside. Displays excellent vision, running instincts, and cuts back against the grain in a small area to find the open spot in the field. Patient, waits for blocks to develop, and shows above-average quickness through the hole. Keeps his feet driving on contact, uses an effective straight arm, and gets as much out of every carry as possible. Powerful, runs over opponents and drags them for several yards after initial contact. Will pick and choose his spots on the inside, and shows the ability to get around tackle. Does a fine job picking up blitzes, squaring into defenders, and protecting the passer.
Negatives: Lacks great footwork, not a creative runner or a ball carrier who makes defenders miss. Cannot run to daylight in the open field. Flashes the ability to turn the corner on the college level, yet he will struggle to do the same in the NFL. Missed time with an ankle injury last season and then suffered a concussion in Ohio State’s bowl game.
Final Analysis: Wells is a grind-it-out runner on the inside with terrific power and ball carrying skills. He's not a breakaway threat, rather a featured back who can consistently handle the ball 25 carries per game. Wells is not a running back for every system, yet he should be an effective featured back for a ball-control offense.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: The disappointing thing about Wells is that he should be #1 on this list. At his best, he’s the best back in this class. The problem, however, is that you don’t see him at his best often enough. He doesn’t run consistently to his weight, and he’s not a consistently powerful runner. He doesn’t look like a 235 pound man; he’s almost tall and lean, not a big, physical-looking guy. He does have some short area burst and explosiveness for a big man, but he’s not anything close to, say, an Adrian Peterson in term of being an explosive homerun threat as a bigger back. Although he clearly has the size and talent to be a productive lead back in the NFL, he also has bust potential because his performance is too inconsistent, and also because of his durability issues. It’s very unfair to proclaim him a bust at this early stage, but since he’s already this position’s “name” player in the draft, and because it is fair to question his effort and execution at times, I’m a little leery about him. If you recall, last year’s consensus top back, Darren McFadden, also had issues – and he was, for all intents and purposes, a bust his rookie season. Wells has been linked to Den, Cin, and Ari, and a fit in Cle, Hou, NE, NO, and maybe even Phi appears to be viable.
Interesting Nugget(s): Wells ran a disappointing 4.59 40 at the combine last month, but hovering around at 4.4 at his own pro day might have boosted his stock.
4. Andre Brown
School: North Carolina State I Ht: 6-0 I Wt: 225 I 40: 4.54 I Year: 4Sr
Bio: Four-year starter who posted 175/767/7 on the ground as a senior and added 29/309/2 as a pass catcher. Junior totals included 95/447/5 on the ground, with 25/194 as a pass catcher when he missed four games after fracturing his foot. Sophomore totals included 124/658/4 on the ground after a freshman campaign of 129/667/6.
Positives: Talented interior ball carrier whose career has been marred with injury. Patient, waits for blocks to develop, and runs with good lean. Displays terrific awareness, finds the cutback lanes, and keeps his feet moving on contact. Possesses an above-average burst through the hole, runs with a nice degree of quickness, and displays good footwork in a small area. Solid pass catcher who easily adjusts to the errant throw and makes the reception with his hands. Effectively uses his blocks whenever handling the ball. Solid pass protector who picks up blitzes.
Negatives: Not a creative or elusive runner who can string several moves together over the course of a single carry. Does not possess the speed to turn the corner and cannot run to daylight in the open field. He has struggled with injuries throughout college.
Analysis: After a sensational freshman campaign, Brown was stamped as a potential early first-round pick and featured runner for the next level. He was able to pull it all together as a senior after several injury plagued seasons and then really showed off his talents in the post season. He presents himself as a complete back who can carry the ball, catch it out of the backfield, or effectively pick up blocking assignments. Brown will be productive at the next level in a system that rotates ball carriers and makes the most of his versatility.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: If there’s one back who has the potential to go from pre-draft afterthought to fantasy darling during the 2009 season, it’s Brown, who we observed as having an awesome Senior Bowl week of practice. He’s a big man, yet he’s elusiveness, shifty, and has lateral ability. He has good feet and redirection. That makes him very intriguing because, for a big back, he has smaller-back attributes. He’s also tough and willing to be physical. He’s considered a capable receiver, although his pass protection is an issue. He never became a dominant back in college, but he’s got the skills to be one. He’s a second-round type, but he could turn out to be like Matt Forte last year and greatly exceed expectations. On the downside, however, he has a long injury history, so the big question is, can he stay healthy? He won’t likely get much fantasy love in drafts this summer because he won’t likely be drafted by a team in need of a lead back, but he’s still a good sleeper who could easily surprise if called upon to carry the load due to an injury. He could be, for example, the bigger back the 49ers are looking for, and he could be a real surprise if he goes there and plays a lot due to another Frank Gore injury.
Interesting Nugget(s): Brown is one of those backs with good size (6’0”, 224 lbs.) who is almost impossible to ignore. Although he had fewer yards over his four-year career than many top backs had in their last two, his size and decent speed are going to attract suitors in the mid rounds.
5. LeSean McCoy
School: Pittsburgh I Ht: 5-10.5 I Wt: 205 I 40: 4.51 I Year: 3So
Bio: Two-year starter awarded all-Conference honors as a sophomore after rushing totals of 308/1,488/21 while adding 32/305 as a receiver. Freshman totals included 276/1,328/14 on the ground, which set eight Big East freshman record for rushing yardage. Also added 33/244/1 as a pass catcher. Spent a year at Milford Academy after graduating from high school.
Positives: Talented ball carrier with the ability to elude defenders and create his own yardage. Plays with good balance, body control, and displays terrific open field running skills. Quick-footed, makes defenders miss, or will pick his way on the inside. Strings several moves together in a single run and uses all his blocks. Possesses the speed and agility to turn the corner, very elusive, and squirts through the small openings of the defense. Possesses soft hands as a pass catcher, and picks up yardage running after the reception. Keeps the play in bounds, working to pick up positive yardage until the whistle blows.
Negatives: Not a strong back who picks up a lot of yardage off initial contact. Lacks great speed in the open field. May not be large enough to handle the role of featured runner at the next level.
Analysis: McCoy is a skilled ball handler with the ability to beat defenders around the outside or create his own yardage on the inside. He displays a complete game, offers a lot of upside for the next level, and he could be very productive as a rookie.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: McCoy is one of the better backs in this class, but he’s probably more of a complementary player because, while he runs tough, he’s not very powerful because of his build, plus he runs a little upright. On the upside, he’s laterally elusive, more so than Brown, is a solid receiver, and he has a nose for the endzone. It’s unlikely that he will be drafted by a team with designs on featuring him right away, but he strikes me as a player who can be productive off the bench in a complementary role, and perhaps help fantasy owners for a decent stretch of games if there’s an injury ahead of him. He should get consideration from most teams looking for a back, such as Ari and Phi.
Interesting Nugget(s): McCoy committed to Miami during his senior season in high school, but switched to Pittsburgh after attending prep school (Milford Academy) to improve his grades.
6. Rashad Jennings
School: Liberty I Ht: 6-1 I Wt: 231 I 40: 4.58 I Year: 5Sr
Bio: Three-year starter who began his college career at Pittsburgh. All-Conference and all-American honoree as a senior after rushing totals of 263/1,500/17, which set a school record. Also added 24/190/2 catching the ball. 2008 Big South Offensive Player of the Year. Junior totals included 191/1,113/15 on the ground in nine games. Sophomore rushing totals included 179/1,020/10. Awarded all-Conference honors both his sophomore and junior seasons.
Positives: Big, powerful back best running between the tackles. Patient ball carrier who does a terrific job waiting for blocks to develop and then follows them anywhere on the field. Can cut back in a small area, runs with an aggressive style, and puts his shoulders into opponents, doling out punishment. Hammers his way on the inside, leaving a trail of defenders, and breaks several tackles during a single carry, picking up a lot of yardage off initial contact. Displays solid open-field running skills and overall football instincts. Effective receiver who adjusts to the errant throw, and makes the reception away from his frame.
Negatives: Struggles in anything other than a straight-line, not a smooth cutback runner, and has difficulty getting outside of tackles. Not an elusive runner who creates yardage.
Final Analysis: Jennings has been as dominant running back at Liberty and a one-man show who has been impossible to stop. He possesses the size, speed, and skill necessary to be a featured runner at the next level and is versatile enough to line up in the backfield on passing downs. Jennings will be one of the first senior running backs drafted in April, and he should quickly produce for an NFL team once he becomes accustomed to the speed of the next level.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: This draft class contains more players who are ideally suited to be complementary guys rather than featured-back types, so we’re going to give Jennings some love and isolate him as a potential sleeper because he has the size and skills needed to be a lead back. Jennings is built a lot like Derrick Ward, and he has the size and power to wear defenses down, plus he’s a serviceable receiver. He won’t likely have much fantasy value this year, but he’s certainly someone to keep an eye on for dynasty leagues, and, of course, if he finds himself pressed into action due to an injury this year. The Jets have interest, as he worked out for the team in early March.
Interesting Nugget(s): The Pittsburgh transfer is one of those small-school backs who put up huge numbers, and he is an intriguing prospect because of it. But he stood out in practices for the East-West Shrine game, mostly because he’s incredibly well-rounded.
7. Shonn Greene
School: Iowa I Ht: 5-10.5 I Wt: 227 I 40: 4.59 I Year: 3Jr
Bio: Big 10 Offensive Player of the Year last season after rushing numbers of 307/1,850/20 and eight receptions. Did not participate in the football program in 2007. Second-team running back in 2006 and finished the season with 32/205/1. Will be 23 years old when the season kicks off in September.
Positives: Athletic ball carrier with a developing game. Turns on his burst in one quick step, consistently runs north/south and gets a lot of force going up the field. Keeps his feet driving on contact, aggressively puts his shoulders into defenders, and falls forward when tackled, picking up the extra yardage. Displays good footwork in a small area, with the ability to bounce around piles. Attempts to set defenders up and make them miss or runs over them altogether. Very strong in his lower body, and delivers some punishing blows. Works to get as much out of every run as possible. Effectively picks up blocking assignments, squaring into defenders and removing them from the action.
Negatives: Lacks the agility to turn the corner or beat defenders around the outside. Loses momentum when he must immediately cut back against the grain. Not a creative ball carrier. Improved his vision and instincts as the season moved on, yet at times slow finding the open running lanes.
Final Analysis: Greene comes off a tremendous campaign where he literally carried the Iowa offense on his shoulders. He possesses outstanding size and ball-carrying strength, yet at the same time, he shows enough playing speed to run away from defenders. Greene’s game needs polish, but he's a running back with very limited mileage on his frame and a prospect who should only get better the more he plays.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He’s a very methodical and deliberate runner; there are no special qualities in terms of things like lateral quickness and change-of-direction. With a big lower body, he looks a little like Michael Turner, but he’s not as physical or powerful a runner. There is an inconsistency to his effectiveness. He’s also not much of a receiver, and his blocking is spotty. But, given his large frame and low mileage, he should be desirable to a team looking for a young bigger back, and he could carve out a significant role on a team looking to offer a physical changeup to a smaller, speedier back. The 49ers, again, are looking for a bigger back to pair with Gore, so Green should be on their radar.
Interesting Nugget(s): Greene started just one season for the Hawkeyes, a year good enough to earn him the Doak Walker Award. What was he doing before that? After playing in a reserve role in 2005 and 2006, he didn’t play football for the entirety of 2007, so he could work at a furniture store (he was also academically ineligible). He paid his own tuition to Kirkwood Community College, improving his grades so he could regain his eligibility at Iowa.
8. Cedric Peerman
School: Virginia I Ht: 5-9.5 I Wt: 216 I 40: 4.41 I Year: 5Sr
Bio: Full-time starter as a senior when he led Virginia on the ground, totaling 153/774/7 and added 44/193 as a pass catcher. Started the six games he played as a junior, and posted 113/585/5 on the ground before being lost to a foot injury in the middle of season. Primarily used to return kicks early in his Virginia career.
Positives: Well-built interior runner who eludes defenders and creates yardage. Strong, tough to bring down, and uses an effective straight arm to keep defenders away. Displays outstanding vision, finds the running lanes, and follows blocks everywhere on the field. Patient, displays good open-field running skills, and is a terrific pass catcher out of the backfield. Gets vertical and adjusts to make the difficult reception, and keeps the play in bounds, trying to pick up as much yardage as possible. Shows a good amount of quickness in his running.
Negatives: Does not play with his 40 time or show the ability to beat defenders around the corner. Lack of height could be an issue with several teams.
Final Analysis: Peerman comes off a terrific senior campaign, and he has watched his draft stock move north. He was a real leader on the Virginia offense, and he offers the skills to be productive in the NFL as a situational ball carrier.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He’s more of a change-up type, and he’ll likely be limited to being a #3 back for an NFL team. He has some durability issues, and he wasn’t always productive in college, so he’s not much of a prospect right now. Then again, he does have a good build, and he’s considered a very good receiver, so he should have some value.
Interesting Nugget(s): Peerman spent his grade and high-school years harvesting tobacco on his family’s farm in small Gladys, VA. Peerman would get up early, even the morning after football games, to load heavy bags onto tractors and trucks. Peerman says he learned discipline on the farm, and his story is a refreshing dose of humility.
9. Jeremiah Johnson
School: Oregon I Ht: 5-9 I Wt: 209 I 40: 4.68 I Year: 4Sr
Bio: All-Conference selection as a senior after career rushing numbers of 168/1,201/13, with eight receptions. Junior totals included 54/344/5 in six games before his campaign was cut short with a torn ligament in his right knee.
Positives: Elusive ball carrier who projects to the next level as a third-down back. Runs with tremendous quickness, footwork, and weaves his way through the traffic to pick up positive yardage. Finds the cutbacks and immediately gets through them with a burst of speed. Follows blocks everywhere on the field, bounces it to the outside, and avoids piles. Can string together several moves in a single carry, and makes defenders miss. Much better receiver out of the backfield than his stats would lead one to believe.
Negatives: Shows minimal strength in his running, and does not pick up yardage off initial contact. Lacks the ability to run to daylight, and possesses more of a short area burst of speed.
Final Analysis: Johnson had a terrific senior season after moving into the starting lineup on a full-time basis. His ability to create yardage and catch the ball out of the backfield could help him latch onto a roster as a third or fourth running back.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: One thing to keep in mind with this guy is that he actually split time with Jonathan Stewart at Oregon back in 2007, and Stewart is a high-end talent. But he’s a smaller back with minimal strength and power, and he does not have great speed, so it’s hard to project him as anything more than a complementary back at this point. Johnson has also had a hard time staying healthy (ACL injury in 2007).
Interesting Nugget(s): Johnson flourished in his first season as a starter (1,201 yards, 7.1 YPC) after backing up Jonathan Stewart for the Ducks. Still, he split carries with LeGarrette Blount, and Johnson’s been a tandem back as far back as high school, where he played with USC’s Stafon Johnson.
10. James Davis
School: Clemson I Ht: 5-11 I Wt: 218 I 40: 4.62 I Year: 4Sr
Bio: Moved in with the first team as a freshman and awarded all-Conference honors the past three seasons. Senior year rushing totals included 171/751/11, when he also added 14/123 as a pass catcher. Junior totals included 214/1,064/10 on the ground, with 12/51/2 as a pass catcher. Posted a career-best 1,134 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns as a sophomore.
Positives: Instinctive, hard-working ball carrier best on the inside. Displays good vision, finds the running lanes, and plays with a good degree of quickness. Works to weave his way through the traffic, effectively follows blocks everywhere on the field and keeps his feet moving on contact. Shows a burst through the hole and the ability to make defenders miss in a very small area. Effective receiver and comes back into the clearing to make himself an available target. Picks up blocking assignments and gives effort.
Negatives: Not a creative or elusive runner and lacks the ability to quickly cut back against the grain. Loses momentum when he must immediately change direction. Not a powerful ball carrier who breaks tackles or picks up a lot of yardage off initial contact.
Final Analysis: Davis has been very productive at Clemson the past four years, yet he does not have the skills to project as a starter in the NFL. He is a one-cut, one- speed back best as a rotational runner in the NFL.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: Nothing stands out here, and he’s probably an NFL backup, at best. But he does have pretty good size and strength, so he might wind up being a player who is relevant for fantasy for a decent number of games at a time while filling in for an injured starter.
Interesting Nugget(s):
Davis declared for the 2008 NFL Draft, but
returned to school to share carries with C.J. Spiller.
Unfortunately, Clemson fell on its face with problems on the line
and at quarterback. Coincidentally, Davis’ stock fell with a
751-yard, 11-touchdown season.
Wide Receivers
1. Michael Crabtree
School: Texas Tech I Ht: 6-1.5 I Wt: 215 I 40: 4.58 I Year: 3So
Bio: Two-year starter awarded all-Conference honors the past two seasons. Sophomore totals included 93/1,135/18 when he struggled during the season with a foot injury. Named Big-12 Offensive Player of the Year in 2007, Biletnikoff Award winner and named to several All-America teams after posting 134/1,962/22. Did not run for scouts prior to the combine because of a stress fracture in his foot.
Positives: Former quarterback who’s been one of the nation’s most dominant receivers the past two seasons. Big, strong target who plays a physical brand of football. Quickly releases off the line, uses his hands to get separation from defenders, and consistently comes back to the ball out of breaks. Extends his hand, offering the quarterback a nice target, and adjusts to the errant throw, making the reception away from his frame. Sells routes, easily makes the reception in stride, and is a sturdy receiver who takes a pounding, but holds onto the throw. Quickly transitions from making the reception to running after the catch, strong as a ball handler, and breaks tackles to pick up additional yardage. Makes the difficult catch in a crowd with defenders draped on him, and displays outstanding concentration. Possesses a sense of timing, plays with good balance, and effortlessly makes the reception in contorted positions while running full speed. Effective downfield blocker.
Negatives: Tends to round off routes, shows minimal quickness into breaks, and then drifts on exit, hampering his ability to get separation from defenders. Lacks deep speed, and is not a receiver who beats defenders in a foot race. Benefitted from the wide-open system at Texas Tech.
Final Analysis: Crabtree is a tremendously talented pass catcher with wonderful physical skills. He is a game-controlling receiver who gets past the sticks on third-down or makes the difficult reception in the endzone. Crabtree uses his physical strength as an advantage, and relies on his former-quarterback vision to read defenses and come free. Crabtree has all the makings of a number one receiver in the NFL, and he will be an early selection in April's draft.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: We’re spoiled at times when we see a guy like Calvin Johnson enter the draft and then explode in his second season. We think there’s a Johnson at least every other year coming into the league, but there really isn’t. Crabtree is nowhere near Johnson in terms of his ability to run and his explosiveness. But he’s obviously very talented, and he’s an excellent prospect. He’s smooth and fluid, and while his speed isn’t off-the-charts, with free access he can build speed, and he has very good YAC ability, so he’s a guy who can make big plays, meaning he has enticing upside potential for fantasy. As we’ve broken him down on tape, we feel he’s in between Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald right now. He may not be a true NFL #1 in terms of consistently dictating coverage, but his upside is that he does, in fact, become Fitzgerald. The Bears would love to have him, but he’ll be gone by the time they pick (#18). More likely, he’ll end up being a Ram or a Seahawk. If he slips a little, at least 10 of the top-15 teams drafting would gladly snap him up.
Interesting Nugget(s): Crabtree averaged an insane 120.3 yards and 1.6 TDs per game in his college career. In a visit to Texas Tech, he actually spoke to basketball coach, Bobby Knight about choosing what sport to play in college, since he was a top-50 basketball recruit going into college.
2. Jeremy Maclin
School: Missouri I Pos: WR I Ht: 6-0 I Wt: 198 I 40: 4.42 I Year: 3So
Bio: Two-year starter awarded all-Conference and all-America honors as both a receiver and return specialist since his freshman season. Led Missouri in receiving last year, posting 102/1,260/13. Also averaged 11.7-yards on 23 punt returns with one score and 24-yards on 42 kick returns with a touchdown. Led the nation in all-purpose yardage in 2008, averaging 202.36 yards per game. Freshman totals included 80/1,055/9 as a receiver, with an average of 12.3-yards on 25 punt returns and two more scores. Also averaged 24.2-yards on 43 kick returns, bringing one back into the endzone.
Positives: Explosive, playmaking prospect who is a threat to score whenever he handles the ball. Plays much faster than his 40 time, can turn it on in one step, and runs away from defenders. Dangerous in the open field, and displays elusiveness as well as speed. Quickly gets off the line into routes, easily adjusts to the errant throw, and makes the reception in stride. Plays with good balance, body control, and uses his frame to shield away defenders. Gets vertical and extends to make the reception away from his frame, displaying good eye/hand coordination. Cannot be caught in the open field, and he strikes fear in opponents.
Negatives: Not a strong receiver, and struggles in battles with opponents. May have difficulty handling the jam at the next level. Posted disappointing 40 times at the combine.
Final Analysis: Maclin is a game-impacting skill player who could help a team in a variety of ways. He possesses solid receiving skills, and at the same time, he is dangerous returning punts or kicks. Maclin offers a tremendous amount of upside potential, and he will see immediate action on special teams as a rookie in the NFL while he develops into a number one receiver.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: Crabtree is getting most of the ink, but it would not be a surprise at all if Maclin, more of an explosive athlete, ends of being the gem of his year’s wide receiver group. He’s very fluid and very explosive, including laterally, yet he’s a tough receiver who plays physically and excels catching the ball inside the hash marks in traffic. He’s also terrific after the catch, so he looks like a complete receiver with upside who projects well as a starter in the NFL. It’s very interesting how you rarely see an elite college receiver play so much inside and over the middle doing the dirty work, yet Maclin did, which bodes well for him in the NFL. There are a number of teams that could call his name on draft day, including the Giants, Bears, Ravens, Dolphins, and Jets.
Interesting Nugget(s): In addition to being a great football player, Maclin also starred as a guard for the Kirkwood High School basketball team, where he was honorable mention All-State and 1st-team All-Conference player.
3. Kenny Britt
School: Rutgers I Ht: 6-3 I Wt: 218 I 40: 4.50 I Year: 3Jr
Bio: Full-time starter to of the past two seasons after playing six games with the first team as a freshman. Broke his own school record for receiving yards last season after totals of 87/1,371/7. Originally set the record as a sophomore with 62/1,232/8, averaging 19.9 yards per reception. All-Conference selection after his sophomore and junior seasons.
Positives: Big, strong possession receiver with reliable hands. Defeats jams at the line of scrimmage, stays in his pass route, and uses his large frame to shield away opponents or protect the pass protect the pass. Fluid moving about the field, plays with good body control, and extends his hands, offering the quarterback a target. Consistently makes the reception away from his frame. Adjusts well to the errant throw running laterally. Comes back to the ball out of breaks, gets vertical, and out- jumps defenders for the high throw. Fluid making the reception in stride, reaching back then plucking the ball with his hands. Keeps his eyes on the ball and displays good concentration.
Negatives: Average release off the line and a one-speed wideout who does not get separation down the field. Rounds off routes, and does not display sharpness into breaks. Has been characterized as a moody player with a personality that can be tough to get along with.
Final Analysis: Britt has been tremendously productive since stepping on the field as a freshman, and he is a big body possession receiver with ability as a number two wideout in the NFL. He may not be a player for everyone, yet he is a productive pass catcher who gets the job done on the field.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He’s physical, tough, and he’s willing to make the tough catch, but he does have some issues. He struggles with press a little and plays upright, and he’s not an explosive downfield threat. But similar to a guy like Larry Fitzgerald, he is fast enough to make big plays down the field and after the catch. He’d be a great option for a team looking for a very active second receiver, yet he will likely be drafted by a team looking for a #1, so he should have fantasy value early in his career. The Giants would likely grab him if he fell a little, and the Bears could also be interested in putting him on the field right away alongside Devin Hester. Britt looks like he’ll be good, so the question for the long-term is, will he be very good?
Interesting Nugget(s): Britt was originally committed to Illinois, but he decided to stay in his home state of New Jersey to play for Rutgers. In 2008, he was suspended one game for undisclosed reasons, which was announced just minutes before the kickoff of a late-season game against Morgan State.
4. Darrius Heyward Bey
School: Maryland I Ht: 6-1.5 I Wt: 210 I 40: 4.35 I Year: 4Jr
Bio: Three-year starter who posted 42/609/5 as a junior. All-Conference and All-America selection as a sophomore after career receiving totals of 51/786/3. Moved into the starting lineup as a freshman and posted 45/694/5.
Positives: Game-breaking receiver with homerun hitting speed. Quickly releases off the line into routes, immediately gets to top speed, and consistently displays the ability to run away from defenders. Can switch it on in one step, displays tremendous quickness in his all-around game, and makes a lot of acrobatic receptions with defenders draped on him. Easily adjusts to the errant throw, displays good eye/hand coordination, and is an agile pass catcher who gets vertical, extends skyward, and then pulls the pass from the air. Plays with good balance, body control, and effectively uses his frame to shield away opponents. Comes back to the quarterback to make himself an available target.
Negatives: Has a thin frame and may struggle handling jams at the next level. Must give better effort as a blocker. Unnecessarily lets the pass get inside him at times. Was very spotty with his production last season.
Analysis: Heyward-Bey has all the physical skills necessary to be game-breaking receiver at the next level. He comes off a disappointing junior campaign, yet if Heyward-Bey physically matures and continues to develop his game, he will be a productive number one receiver at the next level.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: The verticality of his game really, really stands out on film, and that should get your attention for obvious reasons. That’s great, but he’s not nearly as impressive moving laterally, and while he caught the ball pretty well last year, his route-running is a concern in the NFL. The Ravens are looking for a deep threat, and this guy could be the ticket. It may be dangerous for a team to take someone with limitations like Heyward-Bey in the 1st round, but his insane deep speed is hard to pass up. In addition to the Ravens, the Jets, Vikings, and Eagles may be interested.
Interesting Nugget(s): Heyward-Bey was a two-way player in high school, playing both WR and LB. In addition to football, he was an accomplished track and field athlete, which included a fifth-place finish at the national meet during his junior year. Those track skills were seen at the combine, when he ran a blazing 4.25 in the 40-yard dash.
5. Brian Robiskie
School: Ohio State I Pos: WR I Ht: 6-3 I Wt: 209 I 40: 4.55 I Year: 5Sr
Bio: Two-year starter who's led Ohio State in receptions since his junior season. Senior totals included 42/535/8 after 55/935/11 as a junior. Started five games as a sophomore, and posted 29/383/5. Father Terry is currently the wide receivers coach of the Atlanta Falcons.
Positives: Reliable pass catcher with natural receiving skills. Quickly releases off the line, sells pass routes, and effectively uses his frame to shield away opponents. Extends his hands to make the reception away from his frame, and is a sturdy wideout who takes a pounding but holds onto the ball. Adjusts well to the errant throw, looks the pass into his hands, and gets vertical in a crowd to make the difficult reception. Follows the quarterback across the field to make himself an available target, and effectively uses his hands to get separation from opponents. Plays with terrific body control, balance, and displays good awareness. Effective downfield blocker.
Negatives: One-speed receiver who cannot stretch the defense. Average production at Ohio State and never really stood out.
Final Analysis: Robiskie is a coach’s son with a well-rounded game and a receiver who does the little things well. He's not a spectacular talent, yet he’s a pass catcher with the skills to eventually develop into a productive second wideout in the NFL.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He’s somewhat similar to fellow Buckeye alum Anthony Gonzalez in that he’s a very reliable receiver who runs very good routes, but he’s not as athletic as Gonzalez. He is three inches taller, but like Gonzalez, isn’t much of a vertical threat. But he’s a professional route runner, is very smooth and methodical, and he know how to find the voids in coverage. He should be a very solid possession receiver, and we’re ranking him higher than some may expect because we project him as someone who will play right away in the NFL. These rankings are aimed at being for this year. He’d be a good fit for the Bears, since they need someone to come in and play right away. He would also make sense for the Rams, Vikings, Raiders, and quite frankly a host of other teams.
Interesting Nugget(s): Robiskie’s father, Terry, played in the NFL and is currently the wide receivers coach for the Atlanta Falcons. At Chagrin Falls High School, Robiskie owns career records in catches, yards, and touchdowns.
6. Percy Harvin
School: Florida I Ht: 5-11 I Wt: 193 I 40: 4.41 I Year: 3Jr
Bio: Two-year starter who also saw extensive action with the first team as a true freshman. All-Conference selection the past two years and named as an All-American in 2008, when he led Florida in receiving posting 40/644/7 and finished second in rushing with 70/660/10. Sophomore receiving totals included 59/858/4, with 83/764/2 carrying the ball. Made an impact as a true freshman with receiving totals of 34/427/2.
Positives: Explosive, big play ball-handler who impacts games in a variety of ways. Plays with tremendous quickness, balance, and body control. Easily adjusts to the errant throw, and effortlessly reaches back to make the reception at full speed without breaking stride. Possesses strong hands and displays the ability to pull the fastball from the air. Looks the pass in, makes the reception away from his frame, and effectively uses his body to shield away defenders or protect the pass. Runs low to the ground, beats defenders into the open field, and can run to daylight. Follows blocks handling the ball, eludes defenders, and possesses the ability to create his own yardage. Has a stout build and shows surprising power carrying the ball. Consistently keeps the play in bounds, and runs north-south to pick up yardage. Gives effort as a blocker. Does an outstanding job picking up yardage running after the reception.
Negatives: Loses out battling large defensive backs. Is a talented receiver, yet he may not be a true #1 wideout in the NFL. Known to have an explosive personality, which has caused him problems in the past. Has had durability issues throughout
Analysis: Harvin is a multi-purpose skill player who possesses great speed and the ability to score from any point on the field. He can be used in a variety of roles, and a creative offensive coordinator will find ways to get him the ball as a receiver or running reverses. Harvin also has potential as a return specialist, which only adds to his value. He has the ability to be a big-time player at the next level if he can stay healthy, focus on the team, and stay under control at all times.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He may be used primarily as a return man very early in his career, but if he lands in the right situation and does everything right from the beginning, like Eddie Royal last year, he could do much more. In short, he’s a playmaker, and an impact player. He’s put together well, but he’s not a big man, so he’s not a prototypical X or Z receiver. But could be in a certain system, like a Mike Martz’ system that prefers to feature smaller, speedier receivers. He’s very fluid and he’s laterally explosive, and he’ll likely go high in the draft to a team looking for a playmaker who can score, which he can.
Interesting Nugget(s): Harvin was a decorated high school athlete, where in addition to football, he set five state records in track and led his basketball team to a 33-6 record. Unfortunately, Harvin has been suspended multiple times in both football and basketball for in-game altercations with other players and officials, which led to him being suspended by the Virginia High School League.
7. Hakeem Nicks
School: North Carolina I Pos: WR I Ht: 6-0.5 I Wt: 212 I 40: 4.55 I Year: 3Jr
Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-Conference honors the past two years. Junior totals included 68/1,222/12 after junior totals of 74/958/5, when he set a school record for receptions. Freshman numbers included 39 receptions. Led the Tar Heels in receiving the past three years.
Positives: Large, physically gifted pass catcher who plays much faster than his forty time. Very athletic, easily adjusts to the errant pass, and makes a lot of difficult receptions. Gets vertical in a crowd, exposes himself to the big hit, but comes down with the ball. Displays quickness into breaks, comes back to the pass and gets separation from defenders. Extends and offers the quarterback a nice target. Quickly transitions from making the catch to running after the reception. Effectively uses his frame to shield away defenders and protect the pass. Consistently makes the reception with his hands and keeps the play in bounds,
Negatives: Not overly quick releasing off the line into routes. Not a true speedster and will have difficulty getting downfield separation at the next level. Does not display consistently soft hands.
Final Analysis: Nicks has been a productive receiver at North Carolina the past three years, and he offers the skills that translate well to the next level. He has the ability to be used in a variety of offensive systems, and he has enough upside potential to develop into a number one receiver for an NFL team.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He’s definitely considered one of the better prospects in a pretty deep class, so he’s very viable, but we found him to move like a TE studying him on tape, and that’s not very encouraging. He did catch the ball very well, and he could be one of those guys like Anquan Boldin who can overcome a lack of ideal speed and still excel in the NFL, if not right away, and as a #1 or a #1A. He’s a guy we’re basically going to take a wait-and-see approach with and first determine his potential more clearly when his NFL team is known. Miami may be a good fit for him and Bill Parcels loves slow receivers, and the Bears would likely consider him if the wideouts are flying off the board before they pick.
Interesting Nugget(s): Nicks left North Carolina with records for most career receptions, most career TD receptions, and most single-season TD receptions. He did not lose a game in his high school football career.
8. Derrick Williams
School: Penn State I Ht: 5-11.5 I Wt: 194 I 40: 4.48 I Year: 4Sr
Bio: Four-year starter awarded all-Conference honors last season. Senior receiving numbers included 44/485/4, when he also averaged 9.4 yards on 18 punt returns with another score. Also averaged 25.8 yards on 20 kick returns, bringing two back for touchdowns. Junior receiving totals included 55/529/3, with an 11 yard average on 23 punt returns. Receiving totals as a sophomore included 40/440/1, with a 12- yard average on 25 punt returns and another score.
Positives: Athletically gifted prospect with the ability to impact games in a variety of ways. Quickly releases off the line, runs good routes, and gets separation from opponents. Adjusts to the errant throw, extends his hands to make the reception away from his frame, and then immediately transitions from making the reception to running after the catch. Fluid, displays a great burst, and plays much faster than his 40 time. Comes back into the clearing to make himself an available target, strong for his size, and uses his frame to shield away defenders. Game-changing return specialist, also picks up positive yardage running reverses.
Negatives: Double catches too many throws on occasion, and does not consistently come away with the difficult reception. Has been moderately productive at Penn State, but never met expectations. Ran poorly at the combine, which has sent up a lot of red flags.
Analysis: Williams was a highly recruited high school prospect who quickly came in and produced for the Penn State offense. His game never progressed the way scouts thought was possible, although Williams did look like a complete wideout at the Senior Bowl. He's showing signs of finally pulling the pieces together, and he offers potential as a number two receiver at the next level.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He’s a playmaker type, perhaps a notch below Percy Harvin, and early on in his career, he will likely be a situational/package guy. He should play early in his career, and he has the potential, as mentioned above, to develop into a solid #2 NFL wideout.
Interesting Nugget(s): Though he enters the draft as a WR prospect, Williams also played QB, RB, and DB during his time at Penn State. Williams is friends with fellow Penn State alumni, LaVar Arrington, who gave him the nickname Jesus Shuttlesworth.
9. Brandon Tate
School: North Carolina I Ht: 6-0 I Wt: 183 I 40: 4.51 I Year: 4Sr
Bio: Two-year starter who was North Carolina's primary return specialist since his freshman season. Senior totals included 16/376/3 at receiver, with an average of 22.6 yards on seven returns and an additional score. Also averaged 27.7 yards on 11 kick returns. Played in six games last season before his year ended with a knee injury. Junior receiving totals included 25/479/5 with a 24.1 yard average on 39 kick returns and 9.4 yard average on 23 returns.
Positives: Reliable receiver who impacts the game as a return specialist. Solid route runner, stays low exiting breaks, comes back to the ball, and quickly transitions from making the reception to running after the catch. Adjusts to the errant throw, displays good eye/hand coordination, and extends to make the reception away from his frame. Makes the difficult catch with defenders draped on him, and is very dependable.
Negatives: Possesses just average speed and not a downfield threat. Moderately productive as a receiver in college. Coming off a knee injury.
Final Analysis: Tate has been a terrific player at North Carolina since his freshman campaign, and he was off to a career season before tearing a knee ligament. His draft stock will suffer as he rehabilitates his injury, yet he offers potential in the NFL as a fourth receiver/return specialist.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: That knee injury will likely cause him to drop a little in the draft, and it could prevent him from doing much this year. But many feel he’s a legit NFL-caliber receiver when healthy, and there’s a lot to be said for his dependability. But frankly, he’s one of those prospects who could go either way at this early stage.
Interesting Nugget(s): While being known primarily as a WR, Tate owns the all-time record in kick return yards with 3,523 combined returned yards. He is also one of only nine players in NCAA history to return a punt and kick for a TD in the same game.
10. Juaquin Iglesias
School: Oklahoma I Ht: 6-1 I Wt: 210 I 40: 4.59 I Year: 4Sr
Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-Conference honors the past two seasons. Senior totals included career numbers of 74/1,150/10 after 68/907/5 as a junior. Experienced returning punts and kicks.
Positives: Sure-handed possession receiver with an excellent head for the game. Quickly gets into breaks, plays with terrific body control, and consistently extends his hands to make the catch. Works his way back to the quarterback and then uses his frame to shield away defenders or protect the pass. Easily adjusts to the long throw downfield, and makes the reception in stride. Knows where he is on the field, reliable in all aspects, and displays good awareness. Gets up in a crowd to make the difficult reception, and is a sturdy receiver who can take a pounding and then hold onto the throw. Uses his hands to get separation from opponents, and works hard to come free.
Negatives: Lacks deep speed, and cannot run to the long throw. Branded in the past as a player who needed to be pushed.
Analysis: Iglesias is a well-rounded possession receiver with adequate size and reliable hands. He has the tools to start at the next level as a number three wideout, and he could eventually develop into a productive second receiver.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He’s not a #1 pick type player, but there will be a role for him. He’s not very fast, but he has good speed when he gets going, and his hands are excellent. He also gets high marks for his intelligence, so he has some intangibles working in his favor.
Interesting Nugget(s): At Killeen High School, Iglesias ran multiple relay events in track and field, along with averaging 17 points per game for the basketball team. In 2005, Iglesias caught his first career TD to defeat Baylor in double overtime, 37-30.
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Tight Ends
1. Brandon Pettigrew
School: Oklahoma State I Pos: TE I Ht: 6-5.5 I Wt: 263 I 40: 4.85 I Year: 5Sr
Bio: Four-year starter who played in ten games as a senior, missing time with an ankle injury. Finished the season with 42/472. Junior totals included 35/540/4 after 24/310/4 as a sophomore.
Positives: Physically talented tight end with a complete game. Nimble athlete who quickly releases off the line, runs well laterally, and adjusts to the errant throw, making the reception in stride. Nicely settles into the open spot on the field, extends his hands, and makes the reception away from his frame. Plays faster than his 40 time, effective running after the reception, and a sturdy pass catcher who takes a pounding yet holds onto the ball. Blocks with good lean, and bends his knees. Works to stays square, strong at the point, and effective as a position blocker. Quickly gets out to the second level, and easily controls linebackers.
Negatives: Shows marginal quickness to his game. Must learn to keep his blocking intensity until the whistle blows. Not a true downfield threat as a pass catcher.
Final Analysis: Pettigrew is a terrific tight end who possesses natural receiving skills, and he gets results as a blocker. He's very efficient in all areas of the game, and he is a consistent tight end rather than a true playmaker. He offers starting potential at the next level, and if he consistently plays at a high-level, Pettigrew will have a long NFL career.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He’s not a stud, and there may be someone else from this class who ends up doing more for fantasy, but he’s the only multi-dimensional TE in the draft, so he should be the first TE off the board, and he should see significant time right away. He’s a very good blocker and is physical, so he’s a good line-of-scrimmage guy. He doesn’t have great speed, so he’s not elite and won’t dictate coverages, but he has enough to be a good receiver. Comparisons to Daniel Graham appear to be fair, but keep in mind Graham, when he was drafted, was considered a very good receiving threat, so that’s not a knock on Pettigrew. It should be a lock that he ends up on either Phi, Buf, or Atl. If he winds up on the Falcons or Bills, he should play right away, giving him a chance to make an impact right away, à la John Carlson with Seattle last year.
Interesting Nugget(s): The biggest question mark around Pettigrew concerns his arrest for public intoxication and felony assault and battery on a police officer last January. There have been no incidents since then, and Pettigrew is still good enough to warrant a first-round pick. But don’t be surprised if not every team feels that way.
2. Chase Coffman
School: Missouri I Ht: 6-5.5 I Wt: 244 I 40: 4.78 I Year: 4Sr
Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-Conference honors since his sophomore campaign, as well as being named an All-American after his senior season. 2008 John Mackey Tight End Award winner after receiving numbers of 90/987/10. Junior totals included 51/523/7 after 58/638/9 as a sophomore.
Positives: Reliable pass-catching tight end with natural receiving skills. Solid route runner who quickly gets into breaks, stays low on exit, and immediately positions himself to make the reception. Displays terrific eye/hand coordination, adjusts to the errant throw, and extends to make the reception away from his frame. Possesses good football awareness, remains focused on the field, and gets vertical to pull the ball from the air. Makes a lot of athletic receptions on the field. Shows skill blocking down the field, and gives effort in all aspects.
Negatives: Solid athlete, yet not a physically gifted tight end who consistently gets separation down the field. Lacks top blocking size, and rarely used on the line of scrimmage in Missouri's spread offense.
Final Analysis: Coffman is a reliable prospect who possesses consistent hands and a good head for the position. He's not a spectacular player, rather very solid in all aspects of the game, and Kaufman could eventually develop into a starter on the NFL level.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: It will likely take him some time to develop, but we like him as this position’s most intriguing prospect, or sleeper. He’s a really good receiver who looks like Jason Witten running routes. He didn’t show much blocking in college because he didn’t line up on the line of scrimmage a lot, but he can do it, and he blocks with tenacity. Again, the Eagles, Bills, and Falcons should be interested in him.
Interesting Nugget(s): Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel called Coffman “the best tight end in the nation.” Voters agreed, and Coffman won the 2008 John Mackey Award. Coffman lacks the speed and freakish athleticism of his counterparts, but his size and outstanding hands could make him a steal in the mid rounds.
3. Travis Beckum
School: Wisconsin I Ht: 6-3 I Wt: 243 I 40: 4.61 I Year: 4Sr
Bio: Three-year starter who totaled 23/2064 as a senior in six games. Missed the first two contests of the year with hamstring problems then suffered a fractured fibula in late October which ended his season. Junior totals included 75/982/6 after 61/903/5 as a sophomore.
Positives: Athletic, pass-catching tight end coming off an injury-plagued campaign. Quickly releases off the line into routes, immediately gets to top speed, and makes the difficult reception in contorted positions. Runs well laterally, making the reception in stride. Goes up in a crowd, extends and catches the pass away from his frame. Consistently gets into the secondary, creating mismatches.
Negatives: Has a thin build and not strong at the point. Gives effort blocking, yet he gets marginal results. Coming off a pair of leg injuries.
Final Analysis: Beckum is a terrific athlete and an outstanding pass-catching tight end who's been Wisconsin's go-to receiver the past three years. He's best suited to a system that will put him in motion and reduce his blocking responsibilities. Although not a tight end for everyone, Beckum could be a productive starter in a West Coast/ timing offense.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He does have some injury issues, but he merits a high ranking because he might be the best moving TE in this class; he looks like a WR running, and he killed some elite corners off the line of scrimmage in college last year. He projects as an H-back type, movement type guy. We typically see traditional TEs make the biggest impact in the NFL, keep in mind, and guys like him (like Tony Scheffler) tend to flash huge upside and tease us with big plays only to disappoint over the long haul due to their overall limitations. But he’ll definitely generate some interest from teams looking to add some juice to their receiving corps.
Interesting Nugget(s): Beckum’s the classic example of a player hurting his stock by returning to school. He would have likely been the first tight end off the board last year, but a fractured fibula suffered this past October and an overall deep draft at the position will almost certainly push him out of the first round.
4. Shawn Nelson
School: Southern Mississippi I Ht: 6-5 I Wt: 240 I 40: 4.56 I Year: 5Sr
Bio: Four-year starter awarded all-Conference honors the past three seasons. Senior totals included 53/557/3 after 33/451/5 as a junior. Sophomore totals included 36/506/3.
Positives: Tall, athletic tight end with the ability to consistently make plays in the secondary. Runs well for a big man, displays a burst of speed, and creates mismatches down the field. Possesses good eye/hand coordination, makes the tough catch in a crowd, and uses his frame to protect the pass. Easily adjusts to the errant throw, and makes the catch in stride. Displays good quickness in his all-around game, bends his knees, and works assignments as a blocker.
Negatives: Occasionally lets the ball get inside him, and he will drop the easy pass on occasion. Shows just marginal strength as a blocker.
Final Analysis: Nelson is a terrific athlete at the tight end position and a prospect who consistently makes big plays down the field. He offers a great amount of upside potential, and he could turn into one of the more complete tight ends to come from this draft once he improves his blocking.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He’s also built like a WR and is smooth and fluid. But he’s not tremendously explosive, and he has little juice. He can run vertical routes if he gets access, but he’s more of a long-strider. Still, he’s an athletic target, so he has upside for fantasy. But as mentioned above, he needs to improve his blocking.
Interesting Nugget(s): Nelson’s another one of those two-sport athletic types, like Jared Cook, who dazzled scouts with his athleticism; he ran a 4.52 40-yard dash and had an impressive Senior Bowl. Despite being raw, it wouldn’t be a shock at all if Nelson was the second tight end off the board, behind Brandon Pettigrew. In the NFL, Nelson will join his cousin, Chief DT Glenn Dorsey.
5. Jared Cook
School: South Carolina I Ht: 6-4.6 I Wt: 246 I 40: 4.44 I Year: 4Jr
Bio: Broke into the starting lineup as a junior and posted 37/573/3, averaging 15.5 yards per catch. Started three games as a sophomore and caught 30 passes for 421 yards.
Positives: Athletic pass-catching tight end with the ability to break games open. Quickly releases into routes, offers the quarterback a nice target, and extends to snatch the ball from the air. Fluid moving about the field, displays a burst of speed, and nicely makes the reception in stride, adjusting to the errant throw and looking the pass into his hands. Creates a lot of mismatches in the secondary and makes a lot of athletic receptions. Flashes ability as a blocker playing with solid fundamentals and picking up blitzes assignments.
Negatives: Does not show much nastiness as a blocker and must pick up the intensity.
Final Analysis: Cook's game has been on the rise the past two seasons, and he's quickly moving north up draft boards after a terrific combine performance. He's a speedy tight end with size, pass catching skills, and the ability to break games open. Cook is a little rough around the edges, yet he offers a terrific amount of upside and has the ability to be a dominant tight end in the NFL if he reaches his upper level of potential.
Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: He’s yet another athletic pass-catching TE who needs to improve his blocking if he’s to make a big splash, but one who has upside potential due to his ability to run and catch the ball well.
Interesting Nugget(s): Cook is one of those Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates freakish-athlete types who are so hard to pass up at this position. He comes from an athletic family (his brother Jason plays football at Mississippi), and he was a top basketball recruit out of high school in the state of Georgia. He left school after his junior season, but really helped his stock with a strong combine.
Senior Writers Matt Camp and Joe Dolan also contributed to this report.