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2009 Sample Article
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2008 Player Movement Review
Published, 3/10/09
Player Writeups
by: Matt Camp and Joe Dolan,
FantasyGuru.com Senior Writers
Fantasy Analysis by:
John Hansen, Publisher
Phase one of the NFL’s free agency signing period saw more trades than usual, so it’s a good thing we began referring to this article as a “player movement review” as opposed to a free agency review. In 2009’s NFL, trades are more popular than ever, and it’s becoming a big part of what goes on this time of the year.
We have a ton of other moves forthcoming, but the first 1-2 weeks after the start of the free agency period is usually the most important, so here’s our first installment of our 2009 Player Movement Review, in the form of the top-15 moves so far strictly from a skill position perspective.
Note:
As of 3/11/09 we have analysis on 80+ skill, non-skill, and IDP
players have have signed with new team or re-signed with their 2008
teams in our
2009
Subscriber Area.
1. Matt Cassel (QB, traded to Kansas City from New England)
Overview: It probably says a good deal about Cassel that new Chiefs GM Scott Pioli jumped at the chance to acquire him and Mike Vrabel for a second-round pick. Despite worries that Cassel benefited from Bill Belichick’s system, Pioli saw firsthand what Cassel accomplished in New England last season. Cassel improved as the season went on, threw for 3693 yards and 21 TDs, and nearly sneaked 11-5 New England into the postseason. This deal spells the end of the road for Tyler Thigpen as the Chiefs’ starter, and his best chances may lie elsewhere. The acquisition of Vrabel (also in this deal) might have meant more to the Chiefs four years ago, but despite his fading abilities, he can provide some push to a unit that desperately needs it (31st in defense in 2008, and no pass rush at all).
Fantasy Analysis – This is a huge move, and will likely go down as the story of the off-season on so many fronts. For one, the Patriots clearly feel good about QB Tom Brady’s ability to play in 2009 from the start of the season. They like young backup Kevin O’Connell, but they will likely need to find a veteran backup. With Cassel out of the mix, as long as Brady’s recovery is going well this summer, you have to believe the future Hall of Famer will be worth a low 2nd round pick in fantasy drafts. For the Chiefs, this addition is massive. They obviously now have their QB of the future, and it’s not Thigpen, who ironically played in a similar spread offense in 2008, and played pretty well. With new GM Pioli running the show, the Chiefs are quickly building a competitive team, so TE Tony Gonzalez and RB Larry Johnson can no longer talk about playing for a team in rebuilding mode - assuming they’re not traded. With this move, along with some other additions the last two years, the offense is basically rebuilt, at least at the skill positions. With former Cardinal OC Todd Haley - who may be the next great offensive mind in the league - running the show, this offense could be very good right out of the gate. Gonzalez is still playing at an elite level, and WR Dwayne Bowe is a very nice young receiver, a budding star. Wideout Mark Bradley has major injury issues, but he has a lot of talent, plus second-year man Will Franklin has ability. If (Larry) Johnson is content, Haley can pound the ball with him and also get the ball to the speedier Jamaal Charles (a legit sleeper now) as a changeup runner and receiver. That’s potentially a very good tandem when you have an effective passing game around them. I should also note that Haley ran something of a spread attack in Arizona last year, with a lot of shotgun formations, so this looks like a good fit all around. I had some doubts about Cassel outside of New England, and the receiving corps does still need work, but with Haley running the offense and some nice supporting cast players to throw to, Cassel looks like a good bet to put up very serviceable numbers from the jump in KC. At a very quick glance of the QBs for 2009, I see Cassel cracking the top-12, so he should be considered a viable starter, albeit one on the lower end. Amazingly, the Chiefs may quickly have a very good offense in ‘09.
2. Terrell Owens (WR, signed by Buffalo from Dallas)
Overview: T.O. didn't last long on the open market after Jerry Jones (perhaps against his own will) cut him. Buffalo is a destination that seems so un-T.O.-like, a small-market franchise that's been seriously weighing the option of relocation. But perhaps it's exactly what Owens needs. Owner Ralph Wilson inked the 35-year old to a one-year deal, so if Owens wants any shot at a multiyear contract when ‘09 is done, he'll have to be on his best behavior, and a smaller atmosphere with no egos to clash with might not promote the kind of troublemaking Owens is known for. He can start his rebirth (again) by providing a veteran target for Trent Edwards, and on paper, Edwards has a great pair of receivers to throw to in Owens and Lee Evans.
Fantasy Analysis – The T.O. game has played out so many times before, so we should be very familiar with how the storyline will unfold, kind of like how we know an episode of “Three’s Company” will be based on a misunderstanding. It starts off rosy, and things start to deteriorate in year two or three. It sounds crazy, but I don’t think he’ll cause any problems this year; he’s literally run out of options in the National Football League. And the fact of the matter is the Bills desperately need Owens. Sure, his skills have declined, but he’s still one of the 15 best WRs in the game. Buffalo has needed a wideout with size for what seems like a decade (it may actually be a decade), and the guy they picked in the draft last year, James Hardy, is a bum. Lee Evans is not a legit #1, but he’s one heck of a #1A or a #2, so while they still don’t have a TE, Owens and Evans is a really nice duo. Throw in the speedy Roscoe Parrish and the reliable Josh Reed in the slot, and now we’re talking about a real receiving corps. QB Trent Edwards fell into a slump last year, but his overall body of work so far in the NFL is encouraging. He’s showed signs of being a quality player in the NFL, perhaps someone similar to what Trent Green was for the Chiefs from like 2002-2005. Owens won’t catch a ton of balls, and with him on one side Evans’ yardage numbers may even be better than Owens’. But T.O. always produces, and he usually stays healthy, so we should see him put up top-20 numbers, even in this usually-conservative offense. Owens will also help their running game and create more rushing lanes. RB Marshawn Lynch did disappoint me last year trying too hard with his herky-jerky running, and he’ll likely be suspended for a stretch, which makes Fred Jackson a terrific sleeper in 2009.
3. Kellen Winslow (TE, acquired by Tampa Bay from Cleveland)
Overview: After five up-and-down years in Cleveland, Winslow now finds himself in Tampa Bay after being traded for a couple of draft picks. Winslow, 25, has appeared in just 44 games in his five-year career, thanks to a rash of injuries including a broken right fibula his rookie year and a torn right ACL before the 2005 season. The 2006 season was a breakout one for Winslow, as he brought down 89 receptions for 875 yards and 3 TDs. Winslow would improve in 2007 when he caught 82 balls for 1106 yards and 5 TDs en route to his first Pro Bowl selection. 2008 was another frustrating year for Kellen, who went through a much-publicized bout with a staph infection that led him to miss six games and speak out against the team for trying to hide the truth.
Fantasy Analysis – First for the Bucs, this move signals to me that they might be ready to roll with youngster Luke McCown, since a great TE can be a young QB’s best friend. The Bucs surprisingly re-signed Jerramy Stevens, and with Alex Smith still there they are loaded at TE. They at least have protection if Winslow’s knees give out on him this year. With a pretty good offensive line and a solid enough #1 wideout in Antonio Bryant with Winslow added, not to mention RB Derrick Ward, the Bucs have some definite talent on offense, specifically now in the passing game, which will help McCown, who has a strong arm and is something of a gunslinger. Winslow if healthy is still one of the most talented players in the land at his position – he runs like a wideout still – so even though he’ll have to adjust to his new environs, he’s still a strong starter. You just have to be careful not to overvalue a guy who has bad knees, is on a new team, and may be catching passes from an inexperienced QB. As for the Browns, while I understand some concerns with Winslow with his contract demands, his attitude, and his tricky knees, this move leaves the offensive cupboard very bare. Word is the new regime isn’t very high on QB Brady Quinn, and this moves speaks to that, since Winslow would have been very active with Quinn under center. Now we’re looking at a Brown receiving corps that is terrible other than WR Braylon Edwards, who is coming off a horrible season. Not good.
4. Derrick Ward (RB, signed by Tampa Bay from NY Giants)
Overview: With tons of money to spend, the Bucs decided to give Ward a four-year, 17 million deal with 6 million guaranteed. While never being the starter for an extended period of time with the Giants, Ward managed to amass 1025 yards at league-leading 5.6 yards per carry. The 28-year-old will join Earnest Graham in a two-headed attack for Tampa, which ranked 15th in rushing last year.
Fantasy Analysis – I have to say, I like how the Bucs are shaping up. Granted, they may be rolling with a very unproven QB in Luke McCown, but if they in fact do, that means they are confident in him, and I can see why. He may be slight, so durability is an issue, but McCown has a good arm, and he’s something of a gunslinger. He’s been in the league for a few years now, so this isn’t just a rookie or a second-year player. They have a solid enough #1 NFL wideout in Antonio Bryant, plus TE Kellen Winslow is an elite talent when healthy. I even like giving Michael Clayton another shot as a physical possession receiver and their #2; he may have a new lease on life with Jon Gruden gone. The problem for Ward fantasy-wise is he’ll have to split time with Graham, but that may not be a huge issue for Ward. We should know by now that committees are en vogue in the NFL, and Ward may be a guy who is better off splitting time with another back, preferably a bigger power back. Graham’s only 5′9″ but he’s a sizable runner who can grind it out running inside. He’s a decent receiver, but Ward’s a little more athletic and has a little much juice, so I see Ward being more of a big-play and receiving threat. Certainly, based on the size of the contract, Ward will get plenty of touches in all phases, yet not quite enough to expose him as a player who might not be an ideal feature back. If the passing game can reach its potential, this could be a surprisingly good offense. Keep in mind their OL is very good. We’ll have to get a better feel for his role later this year, but Ward’s a good player in a potentially-good situation, so I certainly think he’s worth drafting if the price is right. We’ll just have to see later this year if he’s a low-end #2, or a high-end #3 fantasy RB.
5. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR, signed by Seattle from Cincinnati)
Overview: The Seahawks won the Houshmandzadeh sweepstakes with a five-year, 40 million deal, including 15 million in guaranteed money. Houshmandzadeh, 31, will likely team up with Deion Branch as the starting WRs for Seattle. With “Housh” averaging 98 catches the past two seasons, he will be an immediate upgrade to a receiving corps that was led by Bobby Engram’s 47 catches in 2008.
Fantasy Analysis – Houshmandzadeh hasn’t played in a west coast system, but he’s a good fit here. He’s a terrific intermediate possession receiver and route-runner, and he’s not afraid to go over the middle and make tough catches, a key in this offense. Seattle has dealt with issues with their receivers in the red zone for several years, in part because they’ve lacked size, but while Houshmandzadeh isn’t a giant, he’s an excellent red zone threat who finds a way to get open. Seattle has also been plagued by dropped passes over the last 2-3 years, but that won’t be a problem with Houshmandzadeh, who has excellent hands. Being paired with a quality pro in Matt Hasselbeck also appears to be a good fit, and since both are savvy veterans the pair should be able to get on the same page relatively quickly. He won’t catch as many passes here, however, since Seattle actually throws to the TE, and because Nate Burleson will command some passes from the #3 role. But if healthy TJH should rack up a solid 70-75 grabs along with 7-8 TDs.
6. Laveranues Coles (WR, signed by Bengals from Jets)
Overview: Coles doesn’t have too much speed, but he can make tough catches, and that’s why the Bengals were willing to lock him up to replace T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Coles gets four years, $28 million, a pretty nice payday for a 31-year old receiver who was consistently listed as questionable last season. But despite his bumps and bruises, Coles was able start all 16 games for the Jets, making 70 catches for 850 yards and 7 TDs, and he’ll take a decent amount of pressure of off both Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson.
Fantasy Analysis – That’s a big payday for a guy who is likely on his last legs and it likely signals their concern over the development - or lack thereof - of young wideouts Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell. We’re told Simpson is still a little behind in terms of picking up the offense, so Caldwell is considered ahead of him right now. But Coles will start, and he should be an active possession receiver for QB Carson Palmer, so he’ll have definite value in PPR leagues. Palmer, in fact, lobbied hard for Coles, and Coles himself was enamored with the prospect of playing with an elite talent at the QB position. If Chad Johnson implodes, which is always possible, Coles may have more value than expected. He has very little juice at this point, so there won’t be much upside, but the tough and gritty Coles should have some value in ‘09, especially, again, in PPR leagues.
7. Fred Taylor (RB, signed by New England from Jacksonville)
Overview:
Taylor, the former Jaguar and Pro Bowler, made no qualms about why
he signed in Foxboro; he wants to win a Super Bowl. But from a team
standpoint, his signing means the Patriots’ confidence in
Laurence Maroney is waning, if it’s not completely gone already.
Taylor, 33, ran for 556 yards and a score in 2008 after back-to-back
1,000-yard campaigns.
Fantasy Analysis – Unfortunately, Taylor’s signing creates a very muddled situation in the New England backfield. We know Taylor won’t be asked to carry the ball 20 times a game, not even close, but he won’t be relegated to the bench, either. The Patriots last year lost starter Laurence Maroney, and then when Sammy Morris got hurt their depth at RB was greatly tested (remember BenJarvus Green-Ellis?). This signing is also yet another indication that the team is down on Maroney. The good news for Maroney is that he might still have a chance to see the field, since he’s got some speed and juice, at least more compared to Taylor and Morris. But Maroney’s nothing more than a late pick now. As for Morris, it’s interesting to note that he’s been their goal line back the last two years and Taylor has never been very effective on top of the goal. That leads me to believe Morris could stick as their goal line back. So right now, I’d likely rank the Patriot backs as follows when it comes to fantasy value: Taylor, Morris, Maroney, and Kevin Faulk. In a PPR league, I’d still rank Faulk over Maroney. I wouldn’t feel comfortable rolling with any of them as anything better than a #3 fantasy back, however, since this offense will still be keyed by the passing game, and a guy like Taylor (or Morris) will likely be used as a changeup from the passing of Brady.
Note:
As of 3/11/09 we have analysis on 80+ skill, non-skill, and IDP
players have have signed with new team or re-signed with their 2008
teams in our
2009
Subscriber Area.
8. Correll Buckhalter (RB, signed by Denver from Philadelphia)
Overview: The longtime Eagle inked a four-year deal. Buckhalter made plays when given the chance in Philadelphia last season, and many thought he was underutilized when Brian Westbrook was banged up. Buckhalter will get a chance to make an impact in new coach Josh McDaniels’ offense. Buckhalter joins a crowded backfield without a clear-cut #1 back, so he’s going to have a chance to make a big impact.
Fantasy Analysis – The Broncos are clearly going with the sum-is-greater-than-the parts approach at the RB position. Denver has a plethora of backs on the roster now, but we’ll most likely see guys like Michael Pittman, Selvin Young, and Andre Hall sent packing and/or released in training camp, with Ryan Torain and Peyton Hillis (at FB) likely sticking. Buckhalter’s the assumed “starter” for now, but new head coach Josh McDaniels will likely utilize a committee approach with J.J. Arrington picking up the Kevin Faulk role for McDaniels, who ran the Patriot offense the last two years. Both Buckhalter and Arrington are solid receivers who can be productive in the passing game. An interesting question is will Hillis, a fan favorite, get some opportunities in the passing game at FB and more importantly as a short-yardage back on top of the goal? McDaniels in New England did tend to utilize a short-yardage back the last two years (Sammy Morris), so Hillis, who definitely seems to be a New England type of role player, could have value in TD-only leagues. Buckhalter, 30, has been very productive the last two years when called on (5.0 YPC), and while he’s not a major difference maker, he has the ability to handle and produce with 10-15 carries a game. But clearly, there are too many players involved here to have much confidence in anyone. Most likely, there will be 2-3 RBs here who will be relevant and worth starting at times in 2009. As for the youngster Torain, he’ll have to prove himself in 2009 and beyond, and prove he can stay healthy. His value in a keeper league takes a hit, but it’s certainly possible that, with a good off-season and training camp, he emerges as the #2 RB behind Buckhalter with Arrington and Hillis sticking as role players.
9. Sage Rosenfels (QB, traded to Minnesota from Houston)
Overview: The Vikings traded for Rosenfels for a 4th round pick and signed him to a two-year, $9 million extension. Rosenfels, who will be 31 when the season starts, is entering his 9th season with his 4th team after spending 2006-2008 with Houston where he was the backup for Matt Schaub. Rosenfels was 6-4 as a starter for the Texans over the three years, but was 2-3 in 2008 with 6 TDs and 10 INTs. He will compete for the Vikings’ starting QB job with Tarvaris Jackson.
Fantasy Analysis – Rosenfels is erratic and prone to turnovers, but he does have a decent arm, is something of a gunslinger, and has solid mobility. He should somewhat stabilize their offense, so this signing is relatively good news for the Vikings players. If the team can manage him well and not ask him to do too much, which should be the case given their strong running game and defense, they should be relatively pleased with Sage. It would have been nice if the Vikings were able to find a better option for the short and long-term, but if that wasn’t in the cards – or if they didn’t feel Matt Cassel was a good fit for their system – then you can’t blame them for taking a shot with this veteran, since there were few options available. But Rosenfels himself is strictly a fantasy backup who’ll be lucky to total 20 TDs on this team - and that’s assuming he wins the starting job (it would be a shock if he did not).
10. Nate Washington (WR, signed by Tennessee from Pittsburgh)
Overview: Washington will get $27 million over six years with Tennessee. This was a no-brainer deal for Washington, who immediately leaps to the top 1-2 spots of the Titans’ receiver-thin depth chart. Tennessee seems confident that Washington will be able to make the jump to a #1A or #2 receiver, after he competed with Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes for catches in Pittsburgh. The speedy Washington should help spread the field and complement the talents of the bigger Justin Gage, and to offset the loss of Brandon Jones to San Francisco.
Fantasy Analysis – This should be a nice pickup for the Titans, but there’s not too much to like from a fantasy perspective. In Washington, the Titans finally now have a speedy receiver to go along with the speed RB Chris Johnson brings to the table, and adding a wideout who can run and test defenses down the field was critical for the Titans. But this is till a run-heavy team, and I still believe that the solid Justin Gage is the de facto #1 WR here, plus TE Bo Scaife is one of the better TEs in the league these days, so there will be only so much production to go around. QB Kerry Collins does have a good arm, and Mike Heimerdinger does like to take shots down the field, so Washington will make some big plays. But consistency will be an issue for fantasy owners, especially since Washington’s hands are suspect, so he’ll be a deeper backup only for fantasy purposes this year.
11. Maurice Morris (RB, signed by Detroit from Seattle)
Overview: After spending seven seasons with the Seahawks, Morris signed a three-year deal with a reported $7 million. Though a primarily a backup during his time in Seattle, he still averaged a very respectable 4.3 yards per carry. Morris, 29, will once again be backup in Detroit to Kevin Smith, but will also provide a nice change-of-pace.
Fantasy Analysis – Well, that didn’t take long for Kevin Smith’s stock to drop, did it? Smith did a great job last year considering the circumstances, but he has limitations. Later in the season last year, he was a little more fluid than what he showed we saw earlier in the year, and he more physical than he showed in college, but he’s still robotic with his movement, and he clearly lacks ideal quickness and speed. He finds a way to produce due to his good balance and vision, but he’s a grinder with very little juice. Morris, on the other hand, has some “zuzu” and some speed, and he’s a pretty good RB, plus he can carry the load for a decent stretch if need be. Morris is a player who has improved in each of the last three season, and now he’s a veteran who should help this offense in many ways. Smith should remain the “starter” and he should get most of the goal line carries, but Morris will limit his potential, and likely push him out of the top-20 at the RB position. If Smith is injured, Morris has shown the last few seasons that he can handle and produce in a featured role, so he’s also one of the better RB handcuffs in the league.
12. Brandon Jones (WR, signed by San Francisco from Tennessee)
Overview: The Niners added Jones to their receiving corps by signing him to a five-year, $16.5 million contract with $5.4 million guaranteed. Jones, 26, a third-round pick out of Oklahoma, is a four-year veteran who had spent his entire career with the Titans. 2008 was his best statistical season, as he caught 41 balls for 449 yards and 1 TD.
Fantasy Analysis – I like Jones, but one has to wonder if the 49ers are bringing in someone who is “just a guy” and not someone who can become a go-to receiver. Jones would make more sense for a team that already had a stud receiver, and the 49ers certainly don’t. Jones’ game has always reminded me of Hines Ward, someone who brings physicality to the position and blocks well, but also someone who is a little more than a possession receiver and has the ability to make plays down the field. He’s also a good threat in the red zone, and they like his speed, although he’s far from a burner. It remains to be seen if veteran Isaac Bruce will return to the team in 2009, but this signing is an indication that he will not. If that’s the case, then Jones would likely slip into his spot and start alongside Josh Morgan. So for now, it look like Jones would have some value as their supposed #1, with Morgan’s value holding steady as the likely starter at split end.
13. J.J. Arrington (RB, signed by Denver from Arizona)
Overview: Yes, you are reading this correctly. Denver has signed yet another running back, bringing their free-agent total to three and their actual total on the roster to about 78. Arrington was expected to sign in Denver as early in free agency, but a potential deal fell through. But apparently he wasn’t thrown off by the Broncos’ signings of Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan. Arrington got a solid deal, four years and $10 million, but where are the touches going to come from? Well, if any coach can get them to him, it’s Josh McDaniels, who used tons of tailbacks in his New England scheme.
Fantasy Analysis – Arrington is no slouch, and he appears to be a perfect fit for the role Faulk has handled the last few years in New England, so he will have some value in PPR leagues, as Faulk has had. But this is obviously a messy situation here, so dealing with any Bronco back in ’09 will be treacherous. Arrington is pretty darn effective near the goal as a runner and receiver, so he should have some sneaky value in 2009.
14. Lamont Jordan (RB, signed by Denver from New England)
Overview: Two years, $2.5 million for the eight-year veteran. Jordan ran for 363 yards and 4 TDs in eight games with New England last season, and he must have done enough to impress new Denver coach Josh McDaniels, who saw him up close and personal with the Pats. Jordan’s deal comes in the wake of Denver’s deal with J.J. Arrington falling through, but he’s still the second back the Broncos have added this offseason, joining former Eagle Correll Buckhalter. Jordan is also the sixth (!) free agent of 30 years or older Denver has signed, and the funny part is their questions in the backfield still haven’t been resolved. It’s a crowded pack without a leader.
Fantasy Analysis – This season is shaping up to be rather ugly for backfield committees, and it’s about as bad as it gets now in Denver. Jordan can still play a little, but injuries are a huge concern – he’s had lingering back issues, for one – so there’s no way he should merit anything more than a throwaway pick late, and that’s assuming he’s still with the team in late August. The one point to bring up here is that Correll Buckhalter isn’t exactly a reliable option, so the addition of Jordan, who is a decent goal line and power back, doesn’t help his value.
15. Bryant Johnson (WR, signed by Detroit from San Francisco)
Overview: A six-year veteran, Johnson signed a three-year, $9 million deal with the Lions, giving them another tall receiver to complement stud Calvin Johnson. He spent his first five seasons in Arizona, where he was often overshadowed by WR standouts Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, before moving on to San Francisco in 2008 to play alongside Isaac Bruce. Johnson, 27, had a 2008 season that was nothing special (45 catches/546 yards/3 TD), but he is durable, having only missed three games in his six seasons.
Fantasy Analysis – Johnson at this point is just a guy, but he’s not a bad #2 wideout, and the fit in Detroit is pretty good, since he’ll play alongside a beast like Calvin Johnson. Bryant can run a little, and he’s always been a solid red zone threat, so the Lions will have another option in the passing game, a legit #2 WR as opposed to guys like Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald, who are better utilized as slot receivers (and are both gone). But this won’t be a great offense, and they will get the ball to their RBs a lot, plus Calvin commands the ball big time, so Johnson’s fantasy impact in 2009 should be negligible