What You Get
Top 10 Reasons
Testimonials
Why Use Us?
Experience
One of the oldest and most respected fantasy sports services on the Internet, we've delivered the most innovative fantasy football strategies, perspectives, predictions, player projections, and cool web-based tools on the market since 1995.
More Experience
Results
No company has dominated the industry's "Expert Leagues" and polls than us, with 16 league titles total. Our subscriber won WCOFF in 2006, came in 2nd in 2007, as well as RotoBowl and 2nd place overall in the NFFC. These four readers alone won $270,000 in '06-'07.
Every Year Results
Credentials
We were the first fantasy football web site to provide content for ESPN.com back in 1996, and we've been regularly seen and heard on NFL Network, Sirius NFL Radio, Comcast Sportsnet, and many more media outlets since then. The most "connected" fantasy sports service around, we interact with NFL players, coaches, analysts, agents, and insiders to give our subscribers the inside scoop.
Better Credentials
Check out our content from Jan-July for free by joining our free mailing list. It's FREE!

2008 Player Movement Review

Writeups by: Arnold Zappasodi, Staff Writer
Fantasy Analysis by: John Hansen, Publisher
Published, March 19, 2008

 

As the NFL’s off-season flies by faster than a Coen Brothers Oscar acceptance speech, it’s already time to get serious about breaking the 2008 season down. Soon, the NFL draft will have come and gone, and the fantasy landscape will have been reseeded and formed for yet another NFL season.

 

The first step in navigating through the 2008 NFL scene is analyzing this year’s free agent class. There were a few interesting developments, but this year’s movement is, overall, quite lame. Of more importance this year is understanding the fantasy ramifications of the moves, not necessarily the moves themselves and their individual fantasy impacts. For example, no one this summer is going to have trouble containing his or her excitement over the drafting of one Julius Jones, but his addition in Seattle creates, for the first time in a long time, a committee situation in the Pacific Northwest – and likely the drafting of Shaun Alexander’s walking papers. You’re not doing handstands about the LaBrandon Toefield acquisition in Carolina, but you may be if you’re a DeAngelo Williams owner because that signing is a clear indication that Williams has an excellent chance to be “the man” in 2008. And so on and so forth.

 

With the bulk of the key free agents signed by their new teams, here’s our look at the top moves, broken down by position. Online, we have a ton of info and analysis on non-skill players, including offensive linemen and defensive players.

 

Quarterbacks

 

1.   Josh McCown (QB, signed by Miami from Oakland) - McCown left his backup/spot-starter role with Oakland and signed a two-year .25 million contract with the Dolphins, presumably to compete with young QB John Beck for the starting job. In 2007, McCown started nine games for the Raiders. He was very ordinary, throwing for 1,151 yards with 10 TDs and 11 INTs. It looks like he was picked up off the free-agent market by Miami for his respectable experience, as he’s started 31 games in his six-year career. Plus, he’s going to be just 29 next season, and Miami is clearly building for the future. Look for the Dolphins to draft or possibly trade for another viable starting QB this spring, making the uninspiring McCown no sure-fire bet to start out of the gates in 2008.  

Hansen's Fantasy Analysis: I’ve been intrigued by McCown’s tools – a strong arm, good mobility, and solid overall athleticism – for a little while now, but I’m still waiting for his abilities to translate into production, and, of course, into wins. His career 35-40 TD-INT ratio in his six years pretty much tells you all you need to know about his career thus far. Perhaps being in a complex system in Detroit, and in a less-than-ideal place in Oakland the last two years, has sabotaged his chances. In Miami, McCown will likely be asked to operate in a relatively simple system, which should help, since McCown doesn’t exactly have a reputation for being, shall I say, cerebral. Unfortunately, his supporting cast at receiver is horrible, his line is mediocre, and his running game is in a shaky state with Ronnie Brown coming off ACL surgery (it’s going well thing spring, at least) and Ricky Williams never a sure thing. And while he should have a good chance to beat out the youngster Beck (or a potential high 2008 draft pick), McCown will be in a situation in which he has to play well and the team has to be in the race to keep his starting gig. In other words, this is not the stuff of fantasy legend. 

 

2.  Trent Green (QB, signed by St. Louis from Miami) - After being cut loose by the Dolphins and getting clearance from his doctor to return to the field after another ugly concussion in 2007, the 37-year-old veteran Green signed a three-year .9 million contract with the Rams to back up oft-injured QB Marc Bulger. Green’s first and only season with Miami was a debacle. He played in just five games, throwing for 987 yards with 5 TDs and 7 INTs before getting knocked cold laying a low block.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: Green is, of course, very familiar and comfortable with new Ram OC Al Saunders from his previous stay in St. Louis and his days with Kansas City, plus his old buddy Terry Shea is there coaching the offense. So it’s a great fit for the Rams and also for Green if he’s ever called upon to start. But Green’s like a birthday candle at this point. One blow and he’s out. And playing behind that shoddy (but at least recently improved) Ram O-line is a scary proposition. I still can’t believe he’d take this gig given his issues, and while the move on paper makes sense it’s hard for me to say that this move bolsters the value and reduces the downside of their key skill players. 

 

3.   Brian Griese (QB, signed by Tampa Bay from Chicago) - The Bears decided to deal Griese to the Bucs, since Chicago’s set to roll with QB Rex Grossman and QB Kyle Orton in 2008. Last season, the 33-year-old Griese started six games, throwing for 1,803 yards, with 10 TDs and 12 INTs on the year. This will be his second go-round with Tampa Bay, but he’ll just be a backup, and it would take massive injuries for him to see action. The trade just shows that head coach Jon Gruden will hire anyone because Griese is the definition of a week-to-week guy. 

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: Griese at least knows the system well, and he did play at a surprisingly high level for most of his stint as the starter last year, even stepping into his throws and taking some hits, two things he hasn’t always done. Griese will battle the promising Luke McCown for the backup job, so Bruce Gradkowski’s roster spot will be in jeopardy. It would appear now that Chris Simms will be the odd man out. Having Griese on the roster will at least give the team a reliable veteran should Jeff Garcia get hurt, so that does help the values of their other skill players a tiny bit. 

 

4.   Mark Brunell (QB, signed by New Orleans from Washington) – The free-agent 37-year-old Brunell wasn’t wanted back by the Redskins, so he elected to ink a two-year contract with the Saints, financial terms undisclosed. He’ll most likely be QB Drew Brees’ primary backup in 2008. Last season in his fifteenth year as a pro, Brunell didn’t even sniff the field, as he lost his #2 job to QB Todd Collins. Maybe head coach Sean Payton likes the idea of the veteran lefty mentoring and teaching young southpaw QB Tyler Palko because Brunell’s not much of a playmaker any more.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: I’d say Brunell is a significantly better insurance policy than last year’s backup, Jamie Martin. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement, but Brunell is clearly an experienced veteran who should be able to maintain the values of their key skill players for at least a short period of time should Brees miss some time. Brunell isn’t a great long-term answer, but he should be a solid game manager and fit for this offense, one that focuses more on shorter passes than it does longer ones. It’s worth noting that the Saint line has done a good job protecting the quarterback the last two years, so Brunell should have success if forced to start.

 

5.   Cleo Lemon (QB, signed by Jacksonville from Miami) - Lemon signed a three-year .1 million contract with the Jags to be the backup to QB David Garrard, as established second-string QB Quinn Gray was expected at the time of the signing to test the free-agent market and agree to terms with a new team this off-season. In 2007, Lemon started seven games for the Dolphins. He passed for 1,773 yards with 6 TDs, 6 INTs, and 4 rushing TDs and posted a lousy QB rating of 71. He’ll be 29 next season, and his mobility and ability to be a game-manager certainly appealed to head coach Jack Del Rio. The Jags better hope they don’t need him for a long stretch in 2008, though. After all, he showed an erratic streak with his accuracy, made some horrible decisions, and took a ton of unnecessary sacks last season in the most extensive action of his four-year career.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: Not much to add here, only that the team likely viewed him as a safer and better alternative to Quinn Gray, who did a rock-solid job subbing for an injured David Garrard last year. Either that, or they figured Gray, who will now look for a better opportunity, would cost more than Lemon. To me this signing signifies a Jaguar team that is ready to make a serious run to the playoffs, and one that would rather put their passing game in the hands of a savvier veteran in Lemon compared to Gray, should Garrard get hurt. I’m not sure Lemon is better than Gray, but he’s definitely more experienced, and there are a lot of elements to his game – good mobility, a strong arm, and an ability to make things happen – that are comparable to Garrard.   

 

6.   J.T. O'Sullivan (QB, signed by San Francisco from Detroit) – O’Sullivan, a favorite of Niner OC Mike Martz, signed a one-year 5,000 contract with the 49ers to be the #3 QB and emergency guy behind QB Alex Smith and QB Shaun Hill. He’ll be 29 next season, and he has thrown for just 148 yards, with 1 TD and 2 INTs in his six-year career.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: It’s obvious that his knowledge of Martz’s detailed offensive system was a major factor in this move because O’Sullivan hasn’t done much in the past to instill confidence. It’s also important to note that starter Alex Smith is coming off shoulder surgery and there’s a chance Shaun Hill will have the inside track on the starting job in the summer if Smith’s not 100%. Just in case Hill flops, O’Sullivan at least knows the system.

 

7.   David Carr (QB, signed by New York Giants from Carolina) – Cut by the Panthers after playing like a stiff in his first year there, Carr signed a one-year million deal with the Giants to back up QB Eli Manning. In 2007, the 28-year-old Carr started four games and played in six total contests, throwing for 635 yards with 3 TDs and 5 INTs for an embarrassing QB rating of 58.3. Carr’s reportedly very close with Giant QB coach Chris Palmer from their days together in Houston, which sort of explains this bad move for New York. And it’s clear that Carr’s starting experience (four full seasons with 16 starts under his belt) played a role in this signing because he’s a complete mess and he cannot be relied on.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: I understand the connection to Palmer, but why, why, why? Luckily for the Giants, all Mannings are durable, so perhaps that was a factor with this signing. After all, I wouldn’t mind it too much if my second car was a Kia – as long as my primary vehicle was a Porsche. Surely, if Eli Manning had some durability issues the team would be less inclined to bring Carr into the fold. Regardless, it’s not exactly great news for the Giant skill players. Make no mistake: If Manning goes down, all the Giant skill players will be killed, much like Steve Smith was killed last year. If you watched Carr play a lot last year, and especially if you watched him on film as those I know did, you’d come to one single conclusion: Carr can’t play NFL football.  


Running Backs

 

1.   Michael Turner (RB, signed by Atlanta from San Diego) – The biggest free-agent runner on the market signed a six-year .5 million contract with the Falcons after backing up L.T. in San Diego for his entire four-year career. While he was a Charger, Turner “The Burner” rushed for 1,257 yards and 6 TDs, averaging a whopping 5.5 yards/carry and making some explosive plays in his situational role. At 26 years old, the 5’10”, 237-pound Turner will play the role of the power back in Atlanta’s backfield alongside speedster and finesse RB Jerious Norwood. RB Warrick Dunn has been released, so he won’t play into the equation for new head coach Mike Smith, who wants to emphasize pounding the rock with a duo of versatile backs like Jacksonville’s two-headed monster of Taylor and Jones-Drew (Smith coached those two in Jacksonville). More than likely, Turner will be the thunder and Norwood will be the lightning. Still, we’re going to see more of Turner than ever before. We’ll see how he responds to 200+ carries.

Hansen's Fantasy Analysis: While it would have been nice to see Turner go to more promising situation such as the one in Houston, he will clearly have some fantasy value in Atlanta going forward. New head coach Mike Smith and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey have similar mindsets when it comes to offense, and it centers on pounding the ball between the tackles with a bigger back, and Turner fits the bill well. Obviously, that’s why they opened up the franchise’s wallet to retain his services. He’ll give them something to hang their hat on offensively, an identity. In addition, having a legit lead back will make it easier for the team to transition to a young franchise quarterback, likely in 2009. The team will certainly look to take advantage of Jerious Norwood’s big-play ability, but Turner’s a safe bet to get 18-20 carries each week. Both will give the offense a big-play flare. The offensive line is very much a work in progress and will do Turner no favors. The situation at quarterback isn’t incredibly promising, either, but at least Chris Redman showed in ’07 that he could throw the ball well, get the ball to his receivers, and most important, run an offense and manage a game. He may be serviceable this year, which would help Turner a ton. But ultimately, since this isn’t the greatest situation, since he’s still unproven as a lead guy, and since Norwood will command at least a few carries each week, Turner can’t be considered a terrific #2 fantasy back at this early stage. 

 

2.   Julius Jones (RB, signed by Seattle from Dallas) - Jones used free agency to get out of Dallas, where he was grossly underused in 2007. He signed a reported four-year million contract with the Seahawks, seemingly to compete for the bell-cow role in 2008. In 2007, the 26-year-old Jones rushed for 588 yards and 2 TDs, adding 23/203 as a receiver. In his four-year stay with the Cowboys, he averaged 3.9 yards/carry and scored 18 TDs, but he managed just one 1,000-yard campaign. Seattle has made it a point this off-season to bolster their running game after it let them down last season. Ultimately, Jones has the speed and hands to be a difference-maker in Seattle’s offense, especially if the team parts ways with RB Shaun Alexander. But his 5’10”, 208-pound frame could prevent him from thriving between the tackles.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: Jones has some issues, for sure, but I have to say I like this move for him. Seattle’s offense is pass-oriented, which is just fine for Jones actually, yet they clearly appreciated how they needed to upgrade their running game. I heard last year from a very good source that head coach Mike Holmgren was incredibly perturbed with the production and, more important, the play of Alexander last year, and you can’t blame him. That said, I would expect Alexander to be gone, and I’m sure the Seahawks feel good about how Jones fits into their system and improves their running game. Their line isn’t nearly what it once was, but it’s decent enough (adding veteran G Mike Wahl helps), and if they continue to be a pass-oriented team, there should be opportunities on screens, draws, delays, etc. for Jones to take better advantage of his speed. If they chose to get more physical on the ground, then they can turn to veteran T.J. Duckett, who was solid last year in limited time. One complication is the presence of Maurice Morris, who is a smaller and speedier back who has shown some game and versatility. It’s hard to say with the utmost confidence that Jones should make Morris irrelevant, but as long as things are going well, Jones should be the presumptive “starter” based solely on his contract in what could wind up as something of a committee, if not a serious one. But another problem is the loss of wideout D.J. Hackett. If Deion Branch isn’t healthy enough to play at a high level early in the season, which is likely, then Seattle’s receiving is quite weak. That’s a problem for Jones, for sure. At this early stage, while I think there is still some upside as a fantasy backup, I’m certainly not going to invest heavily in him and assume he’ll be a fantasy savior.  

 

3.   Chris Brown (RB, signed by Houston from Tennessee) - The oft-injured free-agent Brown wore out his welcome in Tennessee with inconsistent play over the past five seasons. As a result, the Texans jumped on him, signing Brown to a two-year .6 million deal, presumably to share carries with RB Ahman Green in 2008. Head coach Gary Kubiak reportedly felt that Brown’s big-play potential and one-cut-and-go style were too good a fit for Houston’s offensive scheme to pass up. Brown’s signing probably signals the end of the line for RB Ron Dayne in Houston. In 2007, Brown rushed for 462 yards and 5 TDs, averaging an impressive 4.5 yards/carry and posting 19/128 as a pass-catcher. Soon to be 27 years old with just over 700 career touches, Brown has some good days ahead of him, for sure, if he doesn’t dog it. But he’s awfully soft, and it’s only a matter of time before he’s crying about some malady. 

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: My initial impression upon hearing of this signing was that a RBBC situation got worse, but Brown does make some sense for the Texans. They plan on keeping Ahman Green around for now, so Brown gives them a veteran fall-back option. And in Brown, they get a veteran insurance policy who also has some upside, unlike the workmanlike Ron Dayne. Brown has always had an intriguing skill set, and he’s a good fit for their system, at least in theory. If he takes to the system well (he ran in a similar system to Denver’s patented zone blocking scheme in college), he could certainly rack up significant yardage if carrying the load here. Keep in mind this offense could be surprisingly lethal in 2008, given the attractive talent they have on the roster. Of course, Brown’s a major injury risk, Green is in the mix, youngster Darious Walker could still compete for playing time as at least a 3rd down back, and the Texans will likely draft a back fairly early in this year’s draft. So while Brown will warrant a later pick as a 4th or 5th back due to his upside, the main thing he does here for now is further complicate this team’s backfield situation.

 

4.   DeShaun Foster (RB, signed by San Francisco from Carolina) – After the Panthers gave up on their bell-cow and released him, Foster on Monday (3/3) officially signed what was reported to be a two-year .8 million contract with the 49ers. In 2007, Foster started all 16 games for the first time in his six-year career, yet his numbers were simply okay. He rushed for 876 yards and 3 TDs, averaged a career-low 3.5 yards/carry, and posted 25/182/1 as a receiver.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: At 28 years old, Foster is fresh, young, and sizeable enough to be an effective change-of-pace back for San Francisco. There’s no question he has the experience and know-how to step in as a spot-starter should Frank Gore continue to get banged up. The only issue with Foster is that he lacks explosiveness and dynamism and struggles with fumbling. He’ll compete with recently re-signed RB Michael Robinson for the backup job to RB Frank Gore, but it’s very safe to assume Foster will be the clear backup. And now that he’s officially a backup, let me officially say that Foster is a damn good one. The good news, too, is that we can all rest easy knowing we (finally) have a clear handle on the handcuff for Gore. Foster is a decent receiver with some power; he’d be solid if Gore went down. He'll also play a fair amount as a runner and a (especially) as a receiver alongside Gore. While that may seem like a negative, working Foster into the flow of the offense should help keep Gore fresh and healthy. 

 

5.   Warrick Dunn (RB, signed by Tampa Bay from Atlanta) - Shown the door by the Falcons after six seasons, the 33-year-old Dunn signed a two-year million contract to return to the Bucs and compete for carries with RB Michael Bennett behind starting RB Earnest Graham. Dunn’s production declined dramatically in 2007. He rushed for 720 yards and 4 TDs, averaging a measly 3.2 yards/carry. He also posted 37/238 as a receiver. Speaking of catching passes, Dunn’s agent reportedly was told by head coach Jon Gruden that he will play a big role as a pass-catcher in the offense in 2008. As far as carries go, though, Dunn will likely play second fiddle to Graham, unless an injury opens the door. At the very least, he brings durability, depth, and experience to the Buc ground game, even if he’s slated to be just a complementary back.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: To me this signing is a severe blow to Graham’s value. Those I know who studied Dunn on tape last year felt he was still playing at a pretty high level, so it’s not like there’s been a noticeable drop-off in Dunn’s game (amazingly). He can still run effectively in between the tackles and bust off the occasional long run. Dunn’s been underused in the passing game for years, but he’s not a bad receiver, either, so he’s capable of chipping away at Graham’s production in the passing game. With Dunn now in the fold, I would be hesitant to draft Graham as my #2 back. Graham was very solid last year, but we have to recognize how he was a deep backup for several NFL seasons, so he’s not exactly bursting with talent. Also, I should note that this move is a clear sign that Carnell Williams won’t be ready to play to start the season. 

 

6.   LaBrandon Toefield (RB, signed by Carolina from Jacksonville) - The free-agent former-Jag Toefield inked a one-year 0,000 deal to play for the Panthers. Last season, the 27-year-old Toefield rarely saw the field behind RB Fred Taylor and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, rushing for just 27 yards and 1 TD. In his five-year stay with Jacksonville, Toefield averaged 3.5 yards/carry and notched 9 TDs, but he was never anything more than a role player. At 5’11”, 235, chances are he’ll be a bruising complement to starting RB DeAngelo Williams in 2008, seeing action in short-yardage and goal-line situations and giving the team a powerful change of pace to the speedy Williams.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: Hey, this is great news for Williams. I’d be concerned about Williams’ fantasy prospects this year if the team drafted a back very high, or if they brought in a higher level free agent. Toefield is the bigger back they need, and he can give them a change of pace and possibly solid work at the goal. But if he’s a “change of-pace” that means that Williams is the man, and that (finally) has to be the expectation now. It looks like we’re going to finally see what Williams can do as the lead back in Carolina. If healthy, he should be a very good yardage producer on a team that should have an effective passing game in 2008. As for Toefield, he's definitely worth a late pick at this point (unless the team drafts a back high), especially if you draft Williams. Williams does have some durability issues, so if unless the team brings in another quality back via the draft, Toefield could very well get a few starts (at least) for the Panthers.   

 

7.   Jesse Chatman (RB, signed by NY Jets from Miami) - Chatman left the Dolphins via free agency and signed a one-year contract with the Jets, financial terms undisclosed. Last year, the 28-year-old Chatman had his best year in the NFL, rushing for 515 yards and 1 TD and posting 27/161 as a pass-catcher. The Jets needed a big, bulky runner to complement the smaller speedster Leon Washington. Chatman, who is 5-8 223 and a load to bring down when he gets going, fits the bill well. Yet, his track record isn’t pretty and he’s had issues keeping his weight down, so this was a risky move by New York.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: I’ll say this for Chatman: his former coaches are loyal to him. He got a second chance last year under former coach Cam Cameron in Miami, and now another former offensive coach in San Diego, Jet offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, has given him an endorsement. This is a pretty good addition for the Jets because, when you consider their unwillingness to utilize Washington a ton out of the backfield, they really had no one else. Chatman gives them a somewhat solid and reliable backup option who has some physicality and versatility as a pass catcher. I’m not sure if he’s a must-have if you draft Jones, but he’d certainly be worth picking up for depth if Jones went down. Again, until further notice, we have to assume the Jets have little interest in taking advantage of Washington’s intriguing talent, which is pretty mind-boggling.   

 

8.   T.J. Duckett (RB, signed by Seattle from Detroit) - Seattle signed this 254-pound, 27-year-old free agent to be a complementary back and a goal-line threat after their duo of RB Shaun Alexander and RB Maurice Morris struggled immensely in short-yardage situations last season. Duckett, who left the Lions, inked a five-year deal, financial terms undisclosed. In 2007, he averaged a career-high 5.2 yards/carry and rushed for 335 yards and 3 TDs. With 36 career TDs to his credit, it seems likely he’ll carve a niche in the red zone and give Seattle a strong between-the-tackles force.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: Duckett has been around for a little while, but he’s still only 27 years old, so he’s not even reached his critical prime. The fact that he’s bounced around is more of an issue, since this will be his fourth team in as many seasons. But Duckett was actually as good as ever for the Lions in 2007, albeit it in a limited role, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, so this looks like a worthwhile option for Seattle in 2008 while they try to figure out their unsettled running back situation. With the team not expected to keep veteran Shaun Alexander for another year, Duckett will give them some physicality to their running game and could conceivably take over the goal line duties. That’s a key point for Duckett because, with Jones in the fold and Morris still around, the only change Duckett has to make a fantasy splash, barring an injury, is to be the team’s primary goal line back. 

 

9.   Mewelde Moore (RB, signed by Pittsburgh from Minnesota) - Moore, an underused 25-year-old free agent, left the RB logjam in Minnesota and signed a three-year .95 million contract with Pittsburgh. He rarely saw the field in 2007 behind RB Adrian Peterson and RB Chester Taylor, so he rushed for only 113 yards and posted just 6/48 as a pass-catcher. Yet, in his four-year career, the speedy, versatile Moore has averaged nearly 5 yards/carry and almost 10 yards/catch, showing signs of major explosiveness on the edges. With that said, he’ll probably contribute for the Steelers in 2008 as a change-of-pace to bell-cow RB Willie Parker, a situational receiver, and a special teamer. His upside, quickness, and elusiveness were coveted by head coach Mike Tomlin, who knows Moore well from 2006 when he was the DC with the Vikings.

Hansen's Fantasy Analysis: This is an interesting signing to me because I know what Moore can do, having followed him closely over the years. While it's highly questionable Moore can hold up if given a significant number of touches over an extended period of time, he has a lot to offer in a complementary role. As mentioned above, Moore has attractive quickness and elusiveness, as well as some very nifty natural run instincts and ability, plus he's a very capable and productive receiver. I have to imagine that his addition won't help Willie Parker's numbers, at least Parker's receiving numbers (not that he does much in the passing game to begin with). However, until we actually see Moore in a Steeler uniform this summer and get some concrete information on his role, it's hard to expect him to get a ton of touches each week. After all, the team does still have Najeh Davenport, who did a nice job last year behind Parker and who can catch the ball as well. Moore, I should mention, can help the Steelers in the return game, and that will likely be his primary role.  

 

10.  Maurice Hicks (RB, signed by Minnesota from San Francisco) - The 29-year-old free-agent Hicks bid farewell to the Niners and signed a three-year contract with Minnesota, financial terms undisclosed. In his four-year stay with San Francisco, Hicks rushed for just 869 yards and 6 TDs as a reserve. But he added 55/424/1 as a receiver, played a major role as a kick returner, and averaged a nice 4.2 yards/carry. Minnesota obviously has a loaded backfield with RB Adrian Peterson and RB Chester Taylor, but the coaching staff has informed Hicks that he’ll see action on third-down and be expected to contribute on special teams. Losing RB Mewelde Moore to the Steelers forced this depth move for the Vikings.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: As mentioned above, Hicks will supposedly see time this year as a 3rd-down back, although I’ll believe that when I see it because the team already has Chester Taylor and wasn’t inclined to use the very capable Mewelde Moore much in that role last year. That’s not to say this was a bad acquisition because it was actually quite a good one. In Hicks, they get a nice player for a #3 back, plus he can help them substantially in kick returns. If the top two guys go down, he can even start in a pinch.
 

Wide Receivers

 

1.   Bernard Berrian (WR, signed by Minnesota from Chicago) – Berrian scoffed at the Bears’ skimpy offer sheet and took full advantage of his free-agent status by signing a six-year million contract with the Vikings. He’s coming off a career year in 2007 in which he posted 71/951/5. Minnesota apparently told him what he wanted to hear – namely that he’ll be the top receiver for them in front of WR Sidney Rice and WR Bobby Wade. After four years with shaky QB play in Chicago, however, the 27-year-old Berrian could have to deal with more issues in Minnesota given QB Tarvaris Jackson’s atrocious mechanics. But his speed and big-play potential should be maximized on the fast turf inside the dome at Viking home games at least. Many teams sighed when Berrian was taken off the market, as he was highly coveted around the NFL for his upside. We’ll see how he copes with the pressure of being a go-to guy.

Hansen's Fantasy Analysis: I love Berrian, and I credit the Vikes for bringing him in, but it’s questionable as to whether or not this move goes down as a wise one. The move on paper does make a lot of sense at least. Although he’s not a legit #1, something the team ideally needs, he’s a major upgrade at the position. Most important, he’s an explosive threat who will severely challenge defenses vertically, which is a very important factor for the Vikings, who run the rock a ton and who have an elite talent in Adrian Peterson, who needs some pressure taken off him. But ultimately, Berrian’s success will hinge on the development of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, and I’m not very encouraged by the young QB. Berrian isn’t exactly a player who will make a QB better; he’s capable of doing very well, but also capable of stumbling if his quarterback is less than stellar. Jackson has a lot to learn about reading defenses, scanning the field efficiently, and making quick and proper decisions. He also has some physical limitations (lack of height) and some major mechanical issues to work out. Jackson at least throws a nice deep ball, and the Vikings should be solid in pass protection, two factors that will help Berrian. Berrian is expected to start alongside Sidney Rice, which is an intriguing pairing but one that probably won’t be extremely productive in 2008 unless Jackson miraculously transforms into an above-average NFL quarterback. As for the Bears, they are perilously thin now at receiver. At this point, they may have to count on the talented but injury-prone Mark Bradley. As it stands now, even with veteran Marty Booker brought into the fold, the player to watch is Devin Hester. The Bears are a lot higher on him as a receiver as some think, and he showed dramatic improvement as a route-runner later in the season.     

 

2.   Donte Stallworth (WR, signed by Cleveland from New England) - After the Pats decided not to pay him a massive bonus, Stallworth became a free agent and signed a seven-year million contract with the Browns to complement WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow. In his stay with New England in 2007, Stallworth was underused, so he managed just 46/697/3 in nine starts. He has bounced from New Orleans to Philly to New England these past three years, but he’s found a home in Cleveland and he’ll be very involved in the vertical passing game. The six-year vet is only 27 years old and he’ll bring significant speed and playmaking ability to an already dynamic offense. Stallworth will likely push WR Joe Jurevicius to the #3 WR spot and start opposite Edwards as the #2 guy. QB Derek Anderson must be one giddy guy right now with all those weapons.

Hansen's Fantasy Analysis: This is a great pickup for the Browns. In Stallworth they have finally added some top-end speed and quickness to their receiving corps and a #2 who can actually help their offense. Stallworth can not only help the Browns, but he can also put them over the top. Perfectly cast alongside a sizable #1 and an elite TE, Stallworth should have plenty of opportunities to make plays after the catch and haul in some bombs from the strong-armed Anderson. As mentioned above, this move will push veteran Jurevicius to the #3 role, and he can be one of the better receivers in the league in that spot. As amazing as it sounds, with their very good line, their efficient running game, quarterback play, and now receiving corps – not to mention the excellent coaching and scheming – the Browns are as complete an offense as you’ll find in the league. I know sometimes we see these situations that look so good on paper yet they wind up being too good to be true. But while Stallworth himself may be hit-or-miss still, what the Browns have done on offense with this addition as well as re-signing Anderson and Jamal Lewis, makes too much sense not to work out in the end.

 

3.   Javon Walker (WR, signed by Oakland from Denver) – Cut by the Broncos after an injury-riddled 2007 campaign, the 29-year-old Walker caught on with the Raiders by inking a massive six-year million deal. His knee was problematic for much of last season, so he posted just 26/287/0 in five starts and gave up his go-to status to WR Brandon Marshall. Since the Raiders lost WR Jerry Porter in free agency, Walker was obviously viewed as a nice replacement with big-play potential. If his shaky knee doesn’t continue to hamper him, Walker will surely assume the top role alongside WR Ronald Curry in 2008 and give QB JaMarcus Russell a deep-threat and a sure-handed, proven target. With 30 career TDs to his credit, the 6’3”, 215-pound Walker instantly improves Oakland’s horrendous red zone offense. Still, his health is a complete question mark, as is the development of Russell.  

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: I know the Raiders desperately needed some playmakers at receiver for their young quarterback, but this move looks like yet another shaky one for Oakland. It’s one thing for a team close to competing for a championship to take a calculated risk on Walker because, if somehow healthy, he could push a good team over the top. That’s why it made sense for teams like Tampa, Philly, Dallas, and Carolina to show interest. But the Raiders won’t be challenging for a Super Bowl berth anytime soon, so unless Walker’s knee holds up for 2-3 years, they’re bound to be disappointed in this deal. For 2008, even if Walker’s knee – one that has been problematic for three years and required two different surgeries in ’07 – cooperates, he’ll still be working with a QB in Russell who doesn’t seem to be even close to being considered an effective and productive starter and passer in the NFL. Unless things are extremely positive this summer with this situation, I’ll likely pass on Walker because, based on name recognition and his place atop the depth chart, he’ll probably be drafted a little earlier than I would normally want to take my #3 fantasy receiver. The addition of Drew Carter certainly doesn’t help and adds to a situation that could be committee-like.   

 

4.   D.J. Hackett (WR, signed by Carolina from Seattle) – The oft-injured free-agent Hackett thought long and hard about returning to Seattle, but in the end he chose to sign a reported two-year .5 million deal to play for the Panthers. In 2007, the 26-year-old Hackett played in just six games due to a lingering high ankle sprain. When active, he was lethal both as a field-stretcher and a red zone threat. He posted 32/384/3 and notched a pair of 100-yard performances. Look for him to slide into the #2 wideout spot in 2008 alongside WR Steve Smith and ahead of WR Muhsin Muhammad and WR Dwayne Jarrett if he can simply stay healthy. His 6’2”, 208-pound frame and deceptive deep speed should really help Carolina add some verticality to their hurting passing game.

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: This is great news for the Panther offense, but not necessarily for Hackett’s production. He’ll obviously play second-fiddle to Smith, not to mention Muhammad, who can be a physical receiver for the Panthers. Durability is also a major concern for Hackett, so he doesn’t look like a viable fantasy starter right now. The good news is that QB Jake Delhomme should now be considered a high-end backup, a top-15 guy, and that Smith should have some needed pressure taken off of him. I also like the move for RB DeAngelo Williams, since Hackett is a versatile receiver who will command attention, especially downfield, which will open things up further for the promising Williams. 

 

5.   Jerry Porter (WR, signed by Jacksonville from Oakland) – Porter said adios to the Raiders, took full advantage of his free-agent status, and signed a juicy six-year million contract with the Jags. His addition is a welcome one, as the Jags have been notoriously thin at wideout (at least talent-wise) for quite some time, and Porter is a relatively proven commodity. In 2007, Porter played a full slate of games, posted 44/705/6, and emerged as the Raiders’ go-to receiver. He’ll be 30 next season, so he’s far from a spring chicken. Moreover, he no longer possesses great speed to stretch the field, and injuries have plagued him in the past. Yet, his 6’2”, 220-pound frame, his eight years of NFL experience, and his crisp route-running should help him seriously contribute as a possession guy and make a difference in the red zone in Jacksonville’s basic passing game. With WR Ernest Wilford bolting via free agency, the table is set for Porter to start immediately and potentially land the #1 WR job ahead of WR Reggie Williams in 2008.

Hansen's Fantasy Analysis: The Jaguar receiving corps got better, but I’m not so sure tough guy Jack Del Rio and the rest of the organization will be thrilled down the road with Porter, whose track record as a team player isn’t all that great. But the team claims it’s more than fine with his attitude, and a fresh start can only help the veteran. Porter’s not a true burner, but he can run, unlike most of their other receivers. In fact, compared to the guys they have trotted out on the field the last few years, Porter’s a serious playmaker. He’ll likely settle in as their #1, with Reggie Williams likely to secure the #2 spot, with Dennis Northcutt moving inside to the slot, which is a place he’s best-suited for. Throw in a decent TE in Marcedes Lewis, and that’s a lot of mouths to feed on a team that still wants to run the rock and one that does so with an excellent two-headed monster. Clearly, the Jags will look to open up their offense more now, but while David Garrard did a fantastic job last year, I still firmly believe he has limitations as a passer and is better off being more of a game-manager, as opposed to the captain of a wide-open offense. Williams did score 10 TDs last year, in case you forgot, and he developed a good chemistry with Garrard. So ultimately, I can’t expect Porter, who has yet to prove he truly commands the ball on a consistent basis, to be anything more than a viable depth/fill-in guy for fantasy. Garrard, though, should be considered a very attractive backup, one capable of putting up starter’s numbers due to his running and passing. 

 

6.   Bryant Johnson (WR, signed by San Francisco from Arizona) – The 27-year-old Johnson took advantage of his free-agent status and left Arizona after five seasons there. He inked a one-year contract with San Francisco, financial terms unknown. In 2007, Johnson posted 46/528/2 as Arizona’s third wideout, starting eight games and averaging 11.5 yards/catch. He’s been a highly productive and eerily consistent role player in his NFL career, so you can bet that pass-happy OC Mike Martz will find a way to keep him involved in 2008. Considering he has more vertical speed and big-play potential than aging wideouts Darrell Jackson (since released) and Isaac Bruce, and taking into account the fact that he has more explosive upside than WR Arnaz Battle, Johnson appears poised to win the #2 WR job for the Niners next season. At the very least, his 6’3”, 213-pound frame will help him stay active as a possession pass-catcher.   

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: Johnson’s a decent player, but he’s miscast here as an integral part of Mike Martz’s offense. Johnson would have been a solid pickup for a team like the Bills, who have a speedy #1 receiver, but I’m not sure the 49ers will get a lot of production out of Johnson this year. For one, he’s not exactly a good fit for Martz’s system, one that typically features smaller receivers who have excellent quickness. Johnson is a bigger receiver with only decent speed, and it remains to be seen if he can excel over the course of a full season as a clear starter. And, or course, it also remains to be seen if quarterback Alex Smith can consistently get him the ball. I would have endorsed Johnson as a nice #4 wideout in a perfect situation, but this is far from that. One player to check out this summer is youngster Jason Hill. Hill has very good speed and is viewed as a good fit for this offense. Unfortunately, given the addition of Johnson, Hill’s potential this year is limited.

 

7.   Isaac Bruce (WR, signed by San Francisco from St. Louis) – He was released by the Rams after 14 seasons, but Bruce caught on elsewhere quickly by signing a two-year million contract with the 49ers. Last year, the 35-year-old veteran posted 55/733/4 in 12 starts and his productivity declined. He’s no longer completely durable, and he’s lost the ability to gain huge separation like he used to. But reuniting with old friend OC Mike Martz in San Fran and playing in a pass-happy scheme could help Bruce experience a slight resurgence if he stays healthy and sees the field a lot. With nearly 1,000 career receptions and 84 career TDs,

Hansen's Fantasy Analysis: I can’t get excited about a 35-year-old in his 16th year in this situation, even though Bruce maintained a high level of play in 2007. He’s back with Mike Martz, which is nice and all, but there’s no Kurt Warner or Marc Bulger here; it’s Alex Smith, who hasn’t shown he can play in the NFL, not to mention in Martz’s demanding system. Smith’s arm strength is a problem, but it’s not as big an issue in this system because they throw more short and intermediate passes than deep ones. The bigger question is can he get a handle on this timing-based offense very quickly? Those who have studied him on tape tell me he doesn’t process information quickly enough, which is surprising because he’s supposed to be a cerebral guy. Unless Smith’s career takes a dramatic turn under Martz – who can definitely make him, but also break him – I just can’t find anything compelling to feel good about here. I will say that I can envision Bruce handling a key role on the inside in Martz’ offense, and as we’ve seen recently with guys like Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald, a capable receiver who knows the system such as those two and of course Bruce, can catch a ton of balls in this system. Also interesting now is the good chance that Drew Bennett will start for St. Louis. This was the expectation when they signed Bennett last year, but he didn’t have a very good showing, so we’ll have to see if the Rams make a play for another receiver in free agency or the draft. If not, then Bennett has some fantasy value, for sure.

 

8.   Marty Booker (WR, signed by Chicago from Miami) - After being cut by the rebuilding Dolphins due to his increasing age and declining productivity, the 31-year-old Booker inked a reported two-year .5 million contract with his former team, the Bears. In 2007, Booker posted a pathetic 50/556/1 as Miami’s possession guy. And he’s been a weak producer for basically five years now. Since he had a 97-catch and a 100-catch season for Chicago several years ago, they wanted him back to fill the void left by departed guys WR Bernard Berrian and WR Muhsin Muhammad. With only WR Devin Hester and WR Mark Bradley in the mix for Chicago, Booker should have a very prominent role in 2008. Yet, his legs are far from young, and he can’t really stretch the field anymore. Hence, the Bears get another guy who is “just a guy.”

Hansen’s Fantasy Analysis: I have to think the veteran Booker will start from Day One in his second stint with the Bears. Despite the shaky quarterback situation, that means Booker will be viable for fantasy, particularly in a PPR league. The 32-year old (as of this July) doesn’t have much verticality to his game these days (not that he was ever a big downfield threat), but he remains a reliable underneath possession receiver who excels running crossing routes and catching passes in the red zone. If the Bears can get even decent play at QB, he could catch 70+ passes, which would likely make him a top-40 receiver, although one with little upside.  

 

9.   Keary Colbert (WR, signed by Denver from Carolina) - After four disappointing seasons with the Panthers, Colbert got a fresh start via free agency when he signed a three-year .2 million contract with the Broncos. Last year, Colbert posted a pathetic bottom line of 32/332/0 in eight starts. Injuries have limited the 26-year-old underachiever in the past, and durability is a major issue with him, not to mention the fact that he lacks focus and mental toughness. However, Denver plans to give him every chance to compete against WR Brandon Stokley for the #2 WR job next to up-and-coming star WR Brandon Marshall now that WR Javon Walker has been released. With just 109 career receptions and 7 career TDs, Colbert came very cheap, which is probably why the very WR-needy Broncos brought him into the fold.

Hansen's Fantasy Analysis: The interesting thing about Colbert is we just don’t know what receiver the Broncos will get. At his best, he’s a player who can be dangerous on the outside or in the slot, and a player who runs good routes and catches most everything thrown his way. The other Colbert is someone who disappears for weeks at a time, gets hurt, drops key passes, and someone who generally doesn’t have the size, speed, or explosiveness to be an impact player. Colbert apparently turned a corner last year in training camp, and he performed excellently. Yet, he basically disappointed yet again during the regular season. The signing does make some sense, however. He’s a veteran with a smidgen of upside, and he’s versatile enough to play in the #2 role on the outside, or he can play inside, if the team opts to let Brandon Stokley stick as the #2. Unfortunately for quarterback Jay Cutler, there’s a monumental drop-off from Javon Walker to Colbert, but at least Colbert has a pair of good knee.    

 

10.  Ernest Wilford (WR, signed by Miami from Jacksonville) - Wilford, a free-agent, left Jacksonville after four years there and inked a four-year million deal with Miami to be a starter with WR Ted Ginn. In 2007, the 29-year-old posted 45/518/3 in Jacksonville’s wideout committee. He has 14 career TDs. Chances are that he’ll be utilized in Miami as a possession-type weapon, since he’s lacking breakaway speed and chock-full of toughness. At 6-4, he’ll definitely help the Dolphins’ red zone offense as well since he can go up and snatch jump-balls and fades. Now Miami just needs a stud to throw him the ball, as QB John Beck and QB Josh McCown are not guys to get excited about.  

Hansen's Fantasy Analysis: I like Wilford as a solid possession guy, and he was probably underused in Jacksonville the last two years. He’s got good size and he’s pretty physical. But the problem with him is obvious: He’s really slow. That was never more evident to me than when I sat in at NFL Films and broke down the tape of the Jag-Steeler playoff game. Wilford was shockingly sluggish. Miami obviously sees something in him, but this is a very underwhelming acquisition unless the team gets surprisingly good play at quarterback, and until Ted Ginn emerges in 2008 as the deadly playmaker he should eventually become. I’m not exactly expecting either to happen this year.  

 

11.  Drew Carter (WR, signed by Oakland from Carolina) - Carter, a 26-ye