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Here are some quotes pulled directly from our 2005 preseason reports published last August. We were not right about everything (we like Kevin Jones and Nate Burleson, for example), but these are actual quotes from last summer's preseason content. Below the quotes are some quotes from our extremely popular 2005 Draft Plan article from the summer. If you'd like this kind of edge this year, Click here to subscribe for 2006. Quarterbacks
“When you consider his talent, experience, system, supporting cast, and favorable schedule, everything points to a breakout season for Carson Palmer. If you load up on quality backs and receivers and then pluck the soon-to-be star Palmer in the 8th round or so, you should become a serious force to be reckoned with.”
“It’s not exactly a case of QB Donovan McNabb being overvalued, but more that we just don’t want any parts of him this year. We were pushing him hard this time last year, but things change quickly. This year, you have to take him in the 3rd round, most likely compared to the 4th or 5th in 2004. And last year, he and T.O. were embarking on a mostly pleasant season. Things are much different now. We don’t want to take a QB this early – and we definitely don’t want to take McNabb this year.”
“Playing for his fantasy-friendly coach and with these three weapons, it’s going to be hard for QB Kurt Warner to fail, so he makes a nice backup option who has nice upside.”
“The Chief passing offense has been pretty shaky, and we’re starting to get a little concerned about Trent Green. They are very far along offensively here, so it would be a shock if they fall apart, but after two unimpressive showings in the preseason, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Chief passing game failed to meet (the admittedly high) expectations this year.”
“Very quietly, QB Matt Hasselbeck has been pretty darn solid this summer. It’s hard to get ultra excited about this passing game, but if things fall into place, he should be a solid option later, after you’ve formed a terrific foundation around him at RB, WR, and TE. His soft schedule certainly helps.”
“If you want a safe and reliable starting QB, and one you can get relatively late, Tom Brady’s the ticket. Don’t expect him to win you a fantasy championship, but if you build a good fantasy team around him, he won’t lose one for you.”
“There’s a lot to like about Kerry Collins this year, for sure, but two things not to like: his inconsistency and lofty draft status in fantasy leagues this year. Just when you think he’s going to explode, he implodes, and usually vice versa. Knowing that, it would be unwise to overpay for him, as some fantasy owners were doing in the 5th and 6th rounds in 10 and 12-team leagues.”
“QB Byron Leftwich’s receiving corps still needs work, but it’s much better than it was last year, and Leftwich, slimmer than ever this year, is ready to excel, with or without an elite group of receivers. He’s a good guy to draft as a backup; you might be starting him most of the season.”
“Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger didn’t rest on his laurels this off-season, and it shows. He looks bigger and stronger, but he also looks faster. Although we’re not high on his fantasy potential, it should be pointed out that he has the skills – great size, a big arm, and mobility – to be a major fantasy factor, so he shouldn’t be counted out.”
“The reality is that QB Kyle Boller still has no touch on his passes and still basically stinks, and we don’t want him on our fantasy teams.”
“Houston QB David Carr has sucked the last two weeks; there’s no better way to say it. He looks lost. People need to transfer most of their attention on QB Joey Harrington’s struggles and focus on how bad Carr’s been this summer and how little he’s progressed the last year or so.”
“Jaguar QB David Garrard still needs a lot of work as a passer, but there’s something very intriguing about the Jaguar backup QB. With another year to develop and with an improved receiving corps to work with, he could be a surprise producer if starter Byron Leftwich goes down. If Garrard does see the field, he’ll be auditioning for a starting job in 2006, since he’s an unrestricted free agent after this season.”
“The third preseason game is an important one, and QB J.P. Losman didn’t come through it looking good, so there’s reason to believe he’ll be slow off the mark.”
Running Backs
“Larry Johnson is the cream up of the back-up player crop, no doubt. The fact is, if Holmes goes down, Johnson is a top-15 player overall. Forget about using a late pick to protect Holmes; you need to grab him around 60 picks into your draft (granted, his draft position will vary from league to league) if you want to make sure you’ll be rolling with the Chief backfield all season. And if you want to really screw the Holmes owner in your league, plan on doing so around the 6th or 7th round of a 10 or 12-team league.”
“While LaMont Jordan won’t likely last more than 30-35 picks into most fantasy drafts, he certainly has the potential to produce at a level deserving of a top 20-25 pick, so he’s undervalued. If the team is behind, Jordan is going to catch a lot of screen passes and rack up a lot of yardage. Jordan looks monstrous this year.”
“The Packer offensive line is not doing too well this summer, and that’s not good. Ahman Green’s falling on our draft board because the evidence that he will have a tough time is pretty compelling right now.”
“Unless the value is too good to pass up as our #2 back, we’re going to pass on Jamal Lewis this year.”
“Despite pretty serious issues on the OL and the fact that Michael Pittman will definitely get a good number of touches, we’ve been higher on Cadillac Williams than most this year. So far, that looks like a good move, since Williams has been very impressive. Everything about this guy exudes something special, so we think he overcomes the line and timeshare issues and has a real nice year. Keep mind that, unlike rookie backs Cedric Benson and Ronnie Brown, the Tampa offense is far enough along and the QB good enough, to where Williams will be in a good spot.”
“Believe it or not, Rudi Johnson is about as safe as it gets for fantasy at the RB position.”
“There are few players in the league we respect more than RB Curtis Martin, but we’re going to let someone else take him in all of my drafts this year unless his draft position drops a little.”
“It seems fantasy owners are still willing to pony up a 3rd round pick for RB Ronnie Brown. Sorry, but even though he has elite talent, and even though he was a great kid when we met him at the Combines, we want no part of Ronnie Brown this year. Remember that even if he does well, it’s not like you made a bad decision to avoid him; you could still take a great player instead of him.”
“Bear RB Thomas Jones is looking better, better, and better. It was interesting how they didn’t even use him this past weekend (third preseason game). Cleary, they want him healthy to be their starter to open the season and don’t want him hurt, which would help holdout Cedric Benson’s bargaining power.”
“Denver RB Mike Anderson’s still clearly the #1 back, and he ran hard and well this past weekend, so he has to get the upgrade. As much as we have doubts that he’ll be the main guy most of the season this year, a 20-minute Sunday conversation with our Bronco insider, who goes to practice every day and talks to the players, has prompted us to move Anderson way up in our rankings. It’s clear that Bell has not made a strong case to be the #1 back and that Anderson has. Anderson is a better short-yardage runner, has shown himself to be more explosive than Reuben Droughns (granted, that’s not much, but it’s something) in practice, and it’s clear that Bronco players, namely Jake Plummer, would like to see Anderson as the main guy. It’s interesting to note that many Bronco coaches are very enamored with Bell’s speed and explosiveness, so it would be interesting to see if Denver employs a committee. That’s something they have avoided, but it might be inevitable this year. But as of right now, Anderson is your likely Week One starter.”
“Panther RB Stephen Davis is a huge injury risk, of course, but the smart money has him getting more carries than anyone else by September’s end, possibly much sooner.”
“Despite being very high on Tatum Bell’s talents, there’s a reason we’ve been somewhat conservative with his ranking (he’s been around #20 at RB all year) and it’s the competition at RB. Bell fully understands he has to compete for the starting job – he made that quite clear to us in the spring when we interviewed him – but if the season started today, the team would list RB Mike Anderson as their starter (they do now). Even worse, veteran RB Ron Dayne has been solid.”
“Falcon RB Warrick Dunn won't be quite as good as he was last year, and that they will get the sluggish TJ Duckett a little more involved, but Dunn is still one of the safer backs out there and a terrific #3 back.”
“We still don't trust Ram RB Steven Jackson to be a true stud, but we have to say that you should take a chance on him due to his monstrous upside.”
“The Steelers are thinking RB Willie Parker is too good – too fast – to keep off the field, and they’re already prepared to start him at least for one week. You have to like his chances to make an impact given the age and injury issues with the top two backs here.”
“Willis McGahee doesn’t look like a fantasy pick for the faint of heart this year.”
“Bengal RB Chris Perry has shown signs this off-season of being a factor, and that has carried over into training camp. The former #1 pick, drafted ahead of the Jones Brothers last year, has looked good in early workouts and is well on his way to being a player who will spell and be a change-of-pace to starter Rudi Johnson.”
“Steeler RB Duce Staley is a 30-year old back with a lot of mileage. There’s a school of thought that says it’s wise to avoid all players who’ve been injured in training camp, and that might be the case with Staley.”
“His place in the RB mix was still in question as recently as this week, but Reuben Droughns made a very strong a case to start Week One with an impressive performance Thursday night (9 carries for 61 yards and a TD). We’ll see what the team does, but the call should be Droughns, based on this performance and his track record.”
“It’s official; the Eagles stole another dynamic back in Ryan Moats. Moats will be worth starting if Brian Westbrook goes down.”
Wide Receivers
“Terrell Owens' situation is really getting out of control, especially in the Philadelphia area. It might have gotten to the point of no return, since Owens has seriously alienated players, coaches, and fans. He will likely report and play out the season, but if you want to avoid any hiccups this year, your plan of action should be avoiding Owens.”
“If he’s healthy, there’s no reason to believe WR Steve Smith won’t get it done this year. And coming off the injury, he looks like something of a bargain. Smith will be a major go-to guy here and he’s capable of catching 100+ passes.”
“Even if you take Chad Johnson in the 3rd round, the prediction here is that you stole him. This year, with the offense, especially Carson Palmer, further along, Johnson should explode.”
“Cardinal WR Anquan Boldin was a consensus late 2nd or early 3rd pick in a 10 or 12-team league, but this year, we’ve seen him available 50+ picks in. In fact, we got him in one 12-team expert league with the 3rd pick in the 6th round, which was fantastic value. His value is down based on last year’s injury, but he was able to return and contribute in 2004, and now he’ll be 100%. He’s also playing with a better QB in Kurt Warner, so there’s reason to believe he’ll be a great fantasy pick, especially in his second year under offensive guru Dennis Green.”
“We moved WR Andre Johnson down a few notches – we had to. He and his QB appeared ready to step up this year, but it’s just not happening in the preseason. At this point, it would be a surprise if they truly busted out. You have to lower expectations at least a little bit here.”
“The Redskins want to take advantage of his deep speed, and Santana Moss is showing signs he will help them to that end. He’s quietly had a nice summer, so while there are issues here at QB, he’s still undervalued as the clear #1 WR here.”
“Patriot WR
Deion Branch is
having a phenomenal camp and looks poised to have a true breakout season. If
healthy, he'll be a top-20 fantasy wideout. Get him.”
“We can’t blame anyone for targeting Roy Williams in their fantasy drafts this year; he looked spectacular at times in his rookie season. It’s just that he’s going too high for our tastes thus far.”
“Clearly, things are going to be harder for WR Drew Bennett this year, as the clear #1 guy, and with Derrick Mason gone. In addition, we’re not so sure he will click as well with QB Steve McNair as he did with Billy Volek late last year. Bennett, too, padded his stats with a few huge games against some average defenses. We do like the guy – we were on to him in the summer of 2004, if you recall – but there’s a reason we haven’t drafted him yet this summer in almost 10 tries.”
“For some reason, we haven’t even considered WR Michael Clayton and we like him as a player. On some level we’re concerned about a sophomore slump, and it certainly doesn’t help that the Buc offense has been way too quiet this summer. Between his being relatively unproven still and on a team with issues on the OL, we’re thinking Clayton is a little overvalued right now as someone usually going 40-50 picks in.”
“We’re not convinced Derrick Mason will be a true go-to guy on a team that also has a good TE in Todd Heap, an impressive rookie #1 pick in Mark Clayton, and an intriguing youngster in Clarence Moore. And while it’s encouraging that QB Kyle Boller showed some progress last year, he’s still not consistent enough to produce a great fantasy option at WR, most likely.”
“While he proved the experts wrong for most of 2004, we still can’t get excited about WR Isaac Bruce’s prospects and value for 2005. Personally, we’d much rather have a young and emerging player like Deion Branch, or Larry Fitzgerald.”
“Granted, WR Eddie Kennison hasn't exactly had a distinguished career, but he's slipping too far in the drafts we've seen, typically going in the 8th or 9th round in a 12-team league. That's excellent value for a player who should be good enough to start as a #3 WR. Look for Kennison to be the #1 guy again in 2005, and a productive one at that.”
“Saint WR Donte Stallworth has made his fair share of plays this summer and he certainly appears poised to have his best season to date.”
“We say WR Jimmy Smith has another year in the tank and that he’s a real nice guy to get as value #3 or even #2 WR. He looked as quick as ever last night, and they certainly push the ball down the field with the passing game in this offense, and they will do so primarily to Smith.”
“You have to temper enthusiasm on this team, but Brown WR Antonio Bryant is showing every sign of really busting out this year. Get him late.”
“At this point, it would be a crime not to take a flyer on Ram WR Kevin Curtis real late due to his upside and solid value even as the #3 here.”
“You had to consider
Bobby Engram
a viable option, given the fact that he's entrenched as the #2 guy here in
Koren Robinson's spot. Now, you have to consider him as an even better
option, since he's looked very solid. Engram is a 10-year veteran and he's
never been known for his speed, but he looks quick and he's getting
separation in the preseason, so he could very well sneak up on a lot of
people this year.”
“Rookie WR Chris Henry’s a reach, but he has a lot of skills and has flashed them this summer. If pressed into action, he’s someone to watch.”
Tight Ends
“Studs Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates will require 3rd or 4th round picks, and even Jason Witten is going very early this year. But if you decide not to invest such a high pick on a TE, Jeremy Shockey looks like an attractive alternative in, say, the 7th round. Between his ability to be a go-to guy in the passing game with some big-play potential and the team’s propensity to throw to him in the red zone, he should be getting more respect than he’s getting.”
“Redskin TE Chris Cooley is very good, and very underappreciated this year. That could change in Joe Gibbs’ TE-friendly offense.”
“Seattle TE Jeremy Stevens has been absolutely dominant in camp, with very few mistakes, and QB Matt Hasselbeck has become a big fan of the guy. Stevens should catch 40-50 passes as long as he stays reasonably healthy, with the upside to catch more and be a factor in the red zone. Perhaps, if you're looking for this year's Antonio Gates, Steven is it. He has the talent and experience to dominate, so we love him as a late pick. Get him.”
Defensive Teams
“The Indianapolis Colt Defense was 5th in the NFL in sacks, 11th in INTs, and 2nd in fumble recoveries, yet they are not being recognized as a viable defensive team option. In fact, with another year in Tony Dungy’s system, with some key younger players a year more experienced, and with help here from the draft, this defense may be even better in 2005. NFL-wise, they are still average, but fantasy-wise, they are strong enough to go into the season as your starter.”
“They have had some injuries, but it’s real clear that the Chicago Bear Defense will be all about turnovers. They are looking to get the ball back on almost every play, and they believe their goal of 10 defenses TDs this year is realistic. If they get half that, they will be a great fantasy D.”
“Over the last six games of the season, the Carolina Panther Defense was arguably the best fantasy D in the league, even better than Baltimore and New England. And they did this without DT Kris Jenkins, and with DE Mike Rucker doing nothing for the team. Jenkins will be back, and they have upgraded their secondary, so the unit should be as good as ever. They have good fantasy potential and aren’t getting much love in fantasy drafts this year.”
2005 Draft Plan Sample: This 6000-word article, written by Publisher John Hansen each year is by far the most popular and helpful article we produce each year. It may in fact be the most useful fantasy football article on the Internet, period, each year. The Draft plan analyzes each round of a typical fantasy draft and goes over almost every single scenario while mapping out an effective plan of action in terms of when to target and pull the trigger on specific players and specific positions.
Here’s a small sampling of some stuff given out in 2005’s Draft Plan:
“I probably won't take Peyton Manning or Daunte Culpepper, so I will be targeting Michael Vick, preferably in the 6th round or later, or Carson Palmer, preferably in the 7th or even the 8th.”
“I'm going to take at least two RBs in the first three rounds, most likely, and four in the first 7-8 rounds. I will look to add at least one high upside backup late, and if one of my main guys has a "must-have" backup, such as Dominic Rhodes (for Edge James), I’ll protect the early pick.”
“I don't want to come across as close-minded, but I'm pretty locked into this plan for the first two rounds. As I said, I've tried drafting Manning just to see what would happen, and it didn't go well; my #2 back wound up being Fred Taylor (this was before his injury situation came out). That's just bad karma. Sure, I might wind up being glad I drafted Manning, and I might still win that league, but I want the best team I can get on paper, and I just don't think taking a QB this early gives me that. I'm also not sold on Culpepper being a great #2 pick without Randy Moss around and on Moss himself as a 2nd round pick this year away from the Viking offense.”
“For me, my plan the first two rounds is clear: Let someone else take Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss and take two of the top-19 backs on our board.
“For my backup, I will look for some upside with a young player like Byron Leftwich, have no problem settling for a solid veteran like Jake Delhomme or Drew Brees around Round Ten, or take a flyer on a veteran getting no love in drafts, such as Steve McNair or Kurt Warner even later than that.”
“At WR, my plan is to pass on the top studs, but to land a 2nd tier guy such as Chad Johnson or Torry Holt, and then get a rock-solid #2 in the 4th or 5th round, like Hines Ward or Steve Smith, and then find a nice value as my #3 such as Lee Evans and go for the upside with my #4 and #5 with players such as Antonio Bryant.”
“I won't close the door on TEs Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates if they are the best values available say, late in the 3rd round. But most likely, I'm going to target a 3rd or 4th tier guy much later. Jeremy Shockey, Alge Crumpler, Todd Heap are the guys I'll target.”
“Honestly, given the issues with RBs Tatum Bell, Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson, I think only two guys are worth of using a 3rd round pick on: Carnell Williams and Warrick Dunn.”
“I can’t tell you exactly why, but I haven’t taken Brett Favre, Trent Green, or Marc Bulger in any drafts, so it would appear that I’m focusing on Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, or Kerry Collins in rounds 6, 7, or 8 or later.”
“One thing I've done in these rounds (5-6), and I've done it with or without having Priest Holmes, is take RB Larry Johnson. The pick might be a waste in the league in which I don't have Holmes, but this is what I'm talking about in terms of taking the best player. If I'm really happy with my team so far, and no one left on the board jumps out at me as being a good value, I might pull the trigger on Johnson. If Holmes gets hurt in December again, and I'm battling for the title still, I'm going to be very, very happy I "wasted" a 6th round pick on Johnson, even if I can use him just 2-3 weeks.”
“And one other point about the Best Available Player: If I see a player I really, really like this late, I'll take him, even if I don't really need him. In that Sportsline draft, I took Vick in the 6th. When I was looking around for the BAP in the 8th, however, I found it to be QB Carson Palmer, so I took him. This worked out well. My starting lineup is still very strong, and now I have excellent potential should Vick fizzle or get hurt.”
“Let's take a look at the three drafts I've been referring to throughout this article, through eight rounds:
Xpert Sports (One-point per catch, can start 3 RBs): Carson Palmer – I pulled the trigger on him on the 7th Domanick Davis Corey Dillon Warrick Dunn Mewelde Moore – Liked this pick with one-point per catch and a solid starting lineup. Javon Walker Anquan Boldin Jeremy Shockey
Fantasy Sports Magazine II (One-point per catch, can start 3 RBs): Priest Holmes Brian Westbrook J.J. Arrington Larry Johnson Correll Buckhalter – Pre-injury, of course. Chad Johnson Steve Smith Jeremy Shockey
CBS Sportsline (One-point per catch, can start 3 RBs): Carson Palmer Michael Vick Shaun Alexander Brian Westbrook Cedric Benson Larry Johnson Torry Holt Steve Smith
I’m real happy with all these teams.”
“At DT, I won't be that upset if I miss out on the Ravens because I also like these teams, which will come much cheaper: Carolina, Indianapolis, Chicago, and Minnesota.”
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